Par Inc Golf Statistics Problem Guidance

1
Slide
IS 310 Business Statistics
IS 310

Business
Statistics
CSU
Long Beach
2

Slide
Inferences on Two Populations

In the past, we dealt with one population mean and one
population proportion. However, there are
situations where two populations are involved
dealing with two means.

Examples are the following:

O We want to compare the mean salaries of male and female
graduates (two populations and two means).

O We want to compare the mean miles per gallon(MPG) of two
comparable automobile makes (two populations and two
means)
3

Slide
Statistical Inferences About Means
and Proportions with Two Populations
Inferences About the Difference Between
Two Population Means: o
1
and o
2
Known

1
and o
2
Unknown
4

Slide
1
and o
2
Known

Interval Estimation of
1

2

Hypothesis Tests About
1

2

5

Slide
Estimating the Difference Between
Two Population Means
Let
1
equal the mean of population 1 and
2
equal
the mean of population 2.
The difference between the two population means is

1
-
2
.
To estimate
1
-
2
, we will select a simple random
sample of size n
1
from population 1 and a simple
random sample of size n
2
from population 2.
Let equal the mean of sample 1 and equal the
mean of sample 2.
x
1
x
2
The point estimator of the difference between the
means of the populations 1 and 2 is .
x x
1 2
6

Slide
Expected Value
Sampling Distribution of
x x
1 2
E x x ( )
1 2 1 2
=
Standard Deviation (Standard Error)
o
o o
x x
n n
1 2
1
2
1
2
2
2
= +
where: o
1
= standard deviation of population 1
o
2
= standard deviation of population 2
n
1
= sample size from population 1
n
2
= sample size from population 2
7

Slide
Interval Estimate
1
-
2
:
o
1
and o
2
Known
2 2
1 2
1 2 / 2
1 2
x x z
n n
o
o o
+
where:
1 - o is the confidence coefficient
8

Slide
1
-
2
:
o
1
and o
2
Known
In a test of driving distance using a mechanical
driving device, a sample of Par golf balls was
compared with a sample of golf balls made by Rap,
Ltd., a competitor. The sample statistics appear on the
next slide.
Par, Inc. is a manufacturer
of golf equipment and has
developed a new golf ball
that has been designed to
provide extra distance.
Example: Par, Inc.
9

Slide
Example: Par, Inc.
1
-
2
:
o
1
and o
2
Known
Sample Size
Sample Mean
Sample #1
Par, Inc.
Sample #2
Rap, Ltd.
120 balls 80 balls
275 yards 258 yards
Based on data from previous driving distance
tests, the two population standard deviations are
known with o
1
= 15 yards and o
2
= 20 yards.
10

Slide
1
-
2
:
o
1
and o
2
Known
Example: Par, Inc.
Let us develop a 95% confidence interval estimate
of the difference between the mean driving distances of
the two brands of golf ball.
11

Slide
Estimating the Difference Between
Two Population Means
m
1

2
= difference between
the mean distances
x
1
- x
2
= Point Estimate of m
1

2

Population 1
Par, Inc. Golf Balls
1
= mean driving
distance of Par
golf balls
Population 2
Rap, Ltd. Golf Balls
2
= mean driving
distance of Rap
golf balls
Simple random sample
of n
2
Rap golf balls
x
2
= sample mean distance
for the Rap golf balls
Simple random sample
of n
1
Par golf balls
x
1
= sample mean distance
for the Par golf balls
12

Slide
Point Estimate of
1
-
2

Point estimate of
1

2
= x x
1 2
where:

1
= mean distance for the population
of Par, Inc. golf balls

2
of Rap, Ltd. golf balls
= 275 258
= 17 yards
13

Slide
x x z
n n
1 2 2
1
2
1
2
2
2
2 2
17 1 96
15
120
20
80
+ = +
o
o o
/
.
( ) ( )
1
-
2
:
o
1
and o
2
Known

We are 95% confident that the difference between
the mean driving distances of Par, Inc. balls and Rap,
Ltd. balls is 11.86 to 22.14 yards.
17 + 5.14 or 11.86 yards to 22.14 yards
14

Slide
1

2
:
o
1
and o
2
Known
Hypotheses
1 2 0
2 2
1 2
1 2
( ) x x D
z
n n
o o

=
+
=
1 2 0
:
a
H D
=
0 1 2 0
: H D s
0 1 2 0
: H D
>
1 2 0
:
a
H D
>
0 1 2 0
: H D
<
1 2 0
:
a
H D
Left-tailed Right-tailed Two-tailed
Test Statistic
15

Slide
Example: Par, Inc.
1

2
:
o
1
and o
2
Known
Can we conclude, using
o = .01, that the mean driving
distance of Par, Inc. golf balls
is greater than the mean driving
distance of Rap, Ltd. golf balls?
16

Slide
H
0
:
1
-
2
< 0

H
a
:
1
-
2
> 0
where:

1
of Par, Inc. golf balls

2
of Rap, Ltd. golf balls
1. Develop the hypotheses.
p Value and Critical Value Approaches
1

2
:
o
1
and o
2
Known
2. Specify the level of significance. o = .01
17

Slide
3. Compute the value of the test statistic.
1

2
:
o
1
and o
2
Known
o o

=
+
1 2 0
2 2
1 2
1 2
( ) x x D
z
n n
2 2
(235 218) 0 17
6.49
2.62
(15) (20)
120 80
z

= = =
+
18

Slide
p Value Approach
4. Compute the pvalue.
For z = 6.49, the p value < .0001.
1

2
:
o
1
and o
2
Known
5. Determine whether to reject H
0
.
Because pvalue < o = .01, we reject H
0
.
At the .01 level of significance, the sample evidence
indicates the mean driving distance of Par, Inc. golf
balls is greater than the mean driving distance of Rap,
Ltd. golf balls.
19

Slide
1

2
:
o
1
and o
2
Known
5. Determine whether to reject H
0
.
Because z = 6.49 > 2.33, we reject H
0
.
Critical Value Approach
For o = .01, z
.01
= 2.33
4. Determine the critical value and rejection rule.
Reject H
0
if z > 2.33
The sample evidence indicates the mean driving
distance of Par, Inc. golf balls is greater than the mean
driving distance of Rap, Ltd. golf balls.
20

Slide
Sample Problem
Problem # 7 (10-Page 401; 11-Page 414)
a. H : = H : >
0 1 2 a 1 2
b. Point reduction in the mean duration of games during 2003 = 172 166
= 6 minutes
_ _ 2 2
c. Test-statistic, z = [( x - x ) 0] / [ ( / n ) + ( / n )]
1 2 1 1 2 2
=(172 166)/[ (144/60 + 144/50)]
= 6/2.3 = 2.61
Critical z at = 1.645 Reject H
0.05 0
Statistical test supports that the mean duration of games in 2003 is less
than that in 2002.
p-value = 1 0.9955 = 0.0045
21

Slide
1
and o
2
Unknown

1

2

1

2

22

Slide
1
-
2
:
o
1
and o
2
Unknown
When o
1
and o
2
are unknown, we will:
replace z
o/2
with t
o/2
.
use the sample standard deviations s
1
and s
2
as estimates of o
1
and o
2
, and
23

Slide
Interval Estimation of -
1 2
(Unknown and )
1 2

Interval estimate
_ _ 2 2
(x - x ) t (s /n + s /n )
1 2 /2 1 1 2 2

Degree of freedom = n + n - 2
1 2
24

Slide
Example: Specific Motors
Difference Between Two Population Means:
o
1
and o
2
Unknown
Specific Motors of Detroit
has developed a new automobile
known as the M car. 24 M cars
and 28 J cars (from Japan) were road
tested to compare miles-per-gallon (mpg) performance.
The sample statistics are shown on the next slide.
25

Slide
o
1
and o
2
Unknown
Sample Size
Sample Mean
Sample Std. Dev.
Sample #1
M Cars
Sample #2
J Cars
24 cars 28 cars
29.8 mpg 27.3 mpg
2.56 mpg 1.81 mpg
26

Slide
o
1
and o
2
Unknown
Let us develop a 90% confidence
interval estimate of the difference
between the mpg performances of
the two models of automobile.
27

Slide
Point estimate of
1

2
= x x
1 2
Point Estimate of
1

2

where:

1
= mean miles-per-gallon for the
population of M cars

2
= mean miles-per-gallon for the
population of J cars
= 29.8 - 27.3
= 2.5 mpg
28

Slide
Interval Estimate of -
1 2
Interval estimate
2 2
29.8 27.3 t (2.56) /24 + (1.81) /28)
0.1/2
2.5 1.676 (0.62)
2.5 1.04
1.46 and 3.54
We are 90% confident that the difference between the
average miles per gallon between the J cars and M
cars is between 1.46 and 3.54.

29

Slide
1

2
:
o
1
and o
2
Unknown
Hypotheses
1 2 0
2 2
1 2
1 2
( ) x x D
t
s s
n n

=
+
=
1 2 0
:
a
H D
=
0 1 2 0
: H D s
0 1 2 0
: H D
>
1 2 0
:
a
H D
>
0 1 2 0
: H D
<
1 2 0
:
a
H D
Left-tailed Right-tailed Two-tailed
Test Statistic
30

Slide
1

2
:
o
1
and o
2
Unknown
Can we conclude, using a
.05 level of significance, that the
miles-per-gallon (mpg) performance
of M cars is greater than the miles-per-
gallon performance of J cars?
31

Slide
2. Specify the level of significance.
3. Compute the value of the test statistic.
o = .05
1

2
:
o
1
and o
2
Unknown
1 2 0
2 2 2 2
1 2
1 2
( ) (29.8 27.3) 0
4.003
(2.56) (1.81)
24 28
x x D
t
s s
n n

= = =
+ +
32

Slide
Hypothesis Tests of -
1 2
H : = H : >
0 1 2 a 1 2

Where average miles per gallon of M cars
1
average miles per gallon of J cars
2

At = 0.05 with 50 degree of freedom, critical t = 1.676

Since t-statistic (4.003) is larger than critical t (1.676), we reject
the null hypothesis. This means that the average MPG of M cars
is not equal to that of J cars
33

Slide
End of Chapter 10
Part A

Par Inc Golf Statistics Problem Guidance

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