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-C-

Sugar #11 (ICE) - Daily


(V)
Because of how long this triangle is taking, we must now
give equal weight to both the bullish and bearish models.
This is the bullish case. It’s quite simple. This market is “b”
completing a long running triangle that has occupied almost
( III ) c
twice the duration of the Wave (II), so we’ve got some nice “5”
“d”
“alternation” present. At this point, though, Sugar must b
launch higher. A break of 23.67, the d-wave high, should d
“3”
prove that the “thrust” is underway. Under this model, the
move higher should be quite explosive. a

e of “e”
c
“4” a ( IV )
b “c”
“a”

“1”

(I) “2”
A break below 21.78 would probable mean that the bearish
model is in place. (See Next Page)

( II )

-B-

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________


Sugar #11 (ICE) - Daily

-C-
( III ) (V)
This is the bearish model. Under this scenario, the 25.37
Sugar move completed at the 25.37, on the “rollover” to “5” a
the March ’09 contract. A break below 21.78 should throw over?
trigger a deeper correction that targets the 19.45  c “b”
20.12 zone. It should be a “rapid” move lower. e
“3”

21.78
b d
“4”
( IV ) “a”

“c”
“1” (A)

(I) “2”

( II )
A break above 23.67 would negate this bearish model.

-B-

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________


-C-
Sugar #11 (ICE) - Weekly (Log Scale) (V)

This remains our long standing count on Sugar. This market is in the latter ( III )
stages of a powerful -C- wave that emerged from a year-long contracting
triangle. The targets for this larger pattern are listed below. Given where the
apex of this triangle lies, it appears that we’re due for a completed wave soon.
However, it still looks like there is one more wave to higher to come.
( IV )

-ABC- Targets:
29.68 :: 261.8% of - A - Wave (linear)
31.47 :: 161.8% of - A - Wave (log scale)

-A- (I)
(C)
(B)

(D) ( II )

( E ) of - B-

(A) The apex of this contracting triangle


shows that the move in Sugar may
be running out time
(C)

(A)
(B) REPRINTED FROM 11/06/09

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________


-C-
(V)
Sugar #11 (ICE) - Daily (Log Scale)

Taking a closer look at the daily chart, Sugar definitely looks to


be carving out a triangle. The preferred model is that this is a
Wave (IV) which should set the stage for one more move “b”
higher that will conclude this “impulsive” formation. Because ( III ) c
it’s unknown where the final “e” wave will terminate, targets for “5” “d”
the Wave (V) cannot be determined yet, but some sort of b
d
“3”
advance to 30c/lb seems achievable and consistent with the a
longer term price objectives on the previous page.
e of “e”
c
a
( IV )
“4” b “c”
“a”

“1”

“2”
(I)

Because this move is getting “long in the tooth,” we need


( II ) to start thinking about the other possibilities for Sugar--
that maybe this entire move completed with the futures
contract rollover that caused the “b”-wave in this model.

REPRINTED FROM 11/06/09


-B-

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________


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