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Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis

Lecture-15
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Seismic Hazard Analysis
Seismic hazard analysis is concerned with getting an estimate of the strong-
motion parameters at a site for the purpose of earthquake resistant
design or seismic safety assessment.
For generalized applications, seismic hazard analysis can also be used to
prepare macro or micro zoning maps of an area by estimating the strong-
motion parameters for a closely spaced grid of sites.
Seismic hazard analysis can be done in two ways
1. Deterministic seismic hazard Analysis (DSHA)
2. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA)

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Seismic Hazard Analysis
DSHA
In the deterministic approach, the strong-motion parameters are
estimated for the maximum credible earthquake, assumed to occur
at the closest possible distance from the site of interest, without
considering the likelihood of its occurrence during a specified
exposure period.
PSHA
Probabilistic approach integrates the effects of all the earthquakes
expected to occur at different locations during a specified life period,
with the associated uncertainties and randomness taken into
account.

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Deterministic seismic hazard analysis
The DSHA approach uses the known seismic sources sufficiently
near the site and available historical seismic and geological data to
generate discrete, single-valued events or models of ground motion at
the site. Typically one or more earthquakes are specified by magnitude
and location with respect to the site. Usually the earthquakes are
assumed to occur on the portion of the site closest to the site. The site
ground motions are estimated deterministically, given the magnitude,
source-to-site distance, and site condition.
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Deterministic seismic hazard analysis
DSHA consists of four primary steps:
1. Identification and characterization of all sources
2. Selection of source-site distance parameter
3. Selection of controlling earthquake
4. Definition of hazard using controlling earthquake
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Deterministic seismic hazard analysis
Identification and characterization of all
sources
Identification
All sources capable of producing significant ground motion at the site
Large sources at long distances
Small sources at short distances
Characterization
Definition of source geometry
Establishment of earthquake potential
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Deterministic seismic hazard analysis
Identification and characterization of all
sources
Characterize geometry
Point source
Constant source-site distance
Volcanoes, distant short faults
Linear source
One parameter controls distance
Shallow, distant fault
Site
Source
Source
Site
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Deterministic seismic hazard analysis
Identification and characterization of all
sources
Characterize geometry
Three-dimensional Source
Three parameters control distance
Close sources of large dimensions
Insufficient data for accurately determining the source geometry

Site
Source
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Deterministic seismic hazard analysis
Identification and characterization of all
sources
Which sources are capable of producing significant motion at the site of
interest?
What is significant motion?
Parametric definition
Peak acceleration - usually ~0.05g
Spectral acceleration - at fundamental period, if known
Other parameters
Use predictive (attenuation) relationship to determine distance of interest
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Deterministic seismic hazard analysis
Determination of source-site distance
Which distance to consider?
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Deterministic seismic hazard analysis
Determination of source-site distance
Typically assume shortest source-site distance (worst case scenario)

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Determination of source-site
distance
M1
M2
M3
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Selection of controlling earthquake
Establish earthquake potential - typically M
max
Empirical correlations
Rupture length correlations
Rupture area correlations
Maximum surface displacement correlations
Theoretical determination
Slip rate correlations
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The definition of active fault requires:
Movement at or near the ground surface at least once within the past 35,000
yrs or movement of a recurring nature within the past 500,000 yrs
Instrumentally determined Macroseismicity showing a direct relationship with
the fault;
or
A structural relationship to a capable fault, such that movement on one could
reasonably be expected to be accompanied by movement on the other
Active Fault
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Magnitude of past earthquakes can be estimated by correlating observed
deformation characteristics with the known magnitudes of recorded
earthquakes.
Faults do not rupture over their entire lengths. Individual fault segments with
physically controlled boundaries rupture repeatedly.
Rupture length, area and displacement can be estimated by post earthquake
field geological investigations.
Correlating earthquake magnitude with rupture parameters involves regression
on limited data sets and consequently produces an estimate of expected value
of earthquake magnitude.
Magnitude Indicators
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Magnitude Indicators
Empirical relationships between M
w
, Surface rupture length L (km),
rupture area A (km
2
) and maximum surface displacement D (m)
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Magnitude Indicators
Scatter inherent in databases used by Wells and Coppersmith (1994) in
developing the correlations.
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Magnitude Indicators
Comparison of several empirical relationships used to find the maximum
magnitude from
(a) the fault rupture length and (b) the fault rupture area
Source: Kramer (1996)
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Tectonic Evidence
Ruff and Kanamori (1984) related earthquake magnitude to rate of
convergence of moving slabs and the age of the subducted slab
M
w
= -0.0089T +0.34V +7.96
T = age in millions of years
V= rate of convergence in
cm/year
Diagonal lines in figure correspond to the equation. Data points represent actual
earthquakes
Source: Kramer (1996)
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Historic Seismicity
Major tectonic features and the distribution of epicenters of available data
on past earthquakes in a typical segment of the Himalayan region
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Theoretical Determination of M
max

Slip rate approach
Seismic moment M
o
= A D
where
= shear modulus of rock; A = rupture area;
D = average displacement over rupture area
If average displacement D relieves stress/strain built up by movement
of the plates over some period, T, then
D = S x T
where S is the slip rate
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Theoretical Determination of M
max

Slip rate approach
M
o
= A S T (S is the slip rate)
and the moment rate can be defined as
M
r
= M
o
/T = A S
Knowing the slip rate and knowing (assuming) values of m, A, and T, the
moment rate can be used to estimate the seismic moment as
M
o
= M
r
T
Then M
w
= log M
o
/1.5 - 10.7
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Selection of controlling earthquake
Decision should be based on ground motion parameters of greatest interest
Consider all sources
Assume M
max
occurs at R
min
for each source
Compute ground motion parameter(s) based on M
max
and R
min
Determine critical value(s) of ground motion parameter(s)
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Selection of controlling earthquake
M1
M2
M3
R
1

R
2

R
3

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Estimate maximum magnitude that could be produced by any source in
vicinity of site.
Find value of R
max
- corresponds to M
max
at threshold value of parameter of
interest, Y
min
. (Y is ground motion parameter)
Selection of controlling earthquake
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Predictive relationships are used to estimate the ground motion
parameter (Y).
Most commonly used ground motion parameter is PHA
Typical predictive relationship for PHA
ln PHA (gals) = 6.74 + 0.859 M 1.80 ln (R+25) (R in km)
Cornell at al (1979)
Plot the variation of Y with R for known magnitude M
Plot these variations for all the sources
Mark the distances from the sources
Measure Y for the distance for different sources from the plots
Selection of controlling earthquake
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Selection of controlling earthquake source
Select the controlling source for which the combination of
magnitude and distance produces highest value of Y.
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Hazard Estimation from M
max
and R
Use M and R to determine such parameters as:

Peak acceleration
Spectral accelerations
Duration
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Steps in DSHA: Summary
M1
M2
M3
M1
M2
M3
R
1

R
2

R
3

n
Y
Y
Y
Y
.
.
2
1
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
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DSHA produces scenario earthquake for design
DSHA is based on worst-case scenario
DSHA provides no information about how likely design earthquake is to
occur during life of structure
Design earthquakes may occur every 200 yrs in some places, every 10,000
yrs in others
DSHA may require subjective opinions on some input parameters
Variability in effects not rationally accounted
Deterministic seismic hazard analysis
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Theoretical Determination of M
max
for
Himalayas
From west to east, the entire Himalaya has a length of about 2500 km,
and the width of the associated seismic source is about 100 km.
The source of major earthquakes along the Himalaya has been
postulated as a gently dipping detachment plane, north of the main
boundary fault (MBF), at a depth of about 20 to 30 km.
Thus, the total rupture plane of the Himalaya has an area A of about
2.5 x 10
5
km
2
.
The shear modulus, for the Himalayan rocks can be taken as 3.4 x
10
11
dyne/cm
2
.
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Theoretical Determination of M
max
for Himalayas
After accounting for the trans-Himalayan deformations, the long-
term average of the slip rate, s , along the Himalayan detachment
plane is corroborated to be about 15 mm/year.

This gives the moment rate
M
r
= A s = 1.275 x 10
27
dyne-cm/year.

Assuming that the recurrence period (T)for largest earthquakes
with magnitude 8(+) anywhere in the Himalaya is about 40 years,
M
0
= M
r
T = 5.1 x 10
28
dyne-cm

M
max
= log M
0
/1.5 10.7 = 8.4
Example Problem
The site show in Figure below is located near four active faults. Fault A is a
normal fault, faults B ad C are strike-slips faults and fault D is a reverse
fault. The coordinates of the site and faults given in the figure are in km.
Assuming that only linear segment can rupture in an individual event,
determine the anticipated peak acceleration at the site.
Solution
1. There are total 6 fault segments to be considered. Fault B has three
segments (B1, B2 and B3)
2. The closest distance of the fault segment from the site (R) is computed.
3. Length of each fault segment is calculated
4. Maximum magnitude associated with each fault is obtained from the
empirical relationships given by wells and coppersmith (1994) for the
particular fault type given in the problem.
5. Peak acceleration is obtained by predictive relationship of Cornell et al.
(1979)
ln PHA (gals) = 6.74 + 0.859 M 1.80 ln (R+25) (R in km)

Calculations are shown.

Solution
Fault Distance
to site
R (km)
Length M
max
PHA
(g)
A 33.0 70.7 7.3 0.305
B1 42.7 22.4 6.7 0.138
B2 18.0 30.0 6.8 0.340
B3 17.5 22.4 6.7 0.319
C 5.0 12.0 6.4 0.467
D 20.5 31.6 6.8 0.260
Calculations indicate that the peak acceleration site is 0.647 g produced by
an earthquake of magnitude 6.4 at site C.
Exercise Problem
Using DSHA compute the PHA for the site below. Use the following
attenuation relationship.
ln PHA (gals) = 6.74 + 0.859 M 1.8 ln (R+25)
(note :R in km)

40 km
40 km
Source 2, M
max
= 6.5
Source 1, M
max
= 7.5
Source 3, M
max
= 6
site
Reiter, L. (1990) Earthquake Hazard Analysis: Issues and insights,
Columbia university press.
Kramer (1996) Geotechnical Earthquake Engineering, Prentice Hall.
Anderson, J.G. and J.N. Brune (1999). Probabilistic hazard analysis without the
ergodic assumption, Seism. Res. Lett. 70, 19-23.
Cornell, C.A. (1968). Engineering seismic risk analysis, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 58,
1583-1606.
http://geo.cv.nctu.edu.tw/prob/download/SeismicHazardAnalysis.pdf
(Accessed on 30 March 2012)
http://www.nibs.org/client/.../Topic05a-SeismicHazardAnalysisNotes.pdf
(Accessed on 30 March 2012)
References