BAYESIAN NETWORKS

BAYESIAN NETWORKS
Bayesian networks, or belief networks: an
approach to handling uncertainty in
knowledge-based systems

Mathematically well-founded in probability
theory, unlike many other, earlier
approaches to representing uncertain
knowledge
BURGLARY EXAMPLE
We have an alarm system to warn about burglary.

We have received an automatic alarm phone call; how
likely it is that there actually was a burglary?

We cannot tell about burglary for sure, but
characterize it probabilistically instead

BURGLARY EXAMPLE
There are a number of events involved:
burglary
sensor that may be triggered by burglar
lightning that may also trigger the sensor
alarm that may be triggered by sensor
call that may be triggered by sensor

BAYES NET REPRESENTATION
There are variables (e.g. burglary, alarm) that can take
values (e.g. alarm = true, burglary = false).

There are probabilistic relations among variables, e.g.:
if burglary = true
then it is more likely that alarm = true
EXAMPLE BAYES NET

burglary lightning


sensor


alarm call
PROBABILISTC DEPENDENCIES
AND CAUSALITY
Belief networks define probabilistic dependencies
(and independencies) among the variables

They may also reflect causality (burglar triggers
sensor)
TERMINOLOGY
Bayes network =
belief network =
probabilistic network =
causal network



MAJOR PROBLEM IN HANDLING
UNCERTAINTY
In general, with uncertainty, the problem is the
handling of dependencies between events.
In principle, this can be handled by specifying the
complete probability distribution over all possible
combinations of variable values.
Belief networks enable that this number can usually be
reduced in practice
EXAMPLE FROM J. PEARL
Burglary Earthquake

Alarm

John calls Mary calls

Burglary causes alarm
Earthquake cause alarm
When they hear alarm, neighbours John and Mary phone
Occasionally John confuses phone ring for alarm
Occasionally Mary fails to hear alarm

COMMENTS

Complexity of reasoning in belief networks grows
exponentially with the number of nodes.

Substantial algorithmic improvements required for
large networks for improved efficiency.