0 оценок0% нашли этот документ полезным (0 голосов)
110 просмотров86 страниц
This document provides an overview of research methodology and key concepts in business research. It discusses:
1. The meaning of research and why study business research, which is a systematic process that provides information to guide managerial decisions.
2. Factors stimulating interest in research methods, such as increased competition, government interventions, and advances in data collection/analysis tools.
3. Key areas of research in management including marketing, personnel, finance, and production.
4. Types of research such as basic/applied and problem identification/problem solving.
5. Concepts and terminology used in research like variables, hypotheses, data sources, and primary/secondary data.
This document provides an overview of research methodology and key concepts in business research. It discusses:
1. The meaning of research and why study business research, which is a systematic process that provides information to guide managerial decisions.
2. Factors stimulating interest in research methods, such as increased competition, government interventions, and advances in data collection/analysis tools.
3. Key areas of research in management including marketing, personnel, finance, and production.
4. Types of research such as basic/applied and problem identification/problem solving.
5. Concepts and terminology used in research like variables, hypotheses, data sources, and primary/secondary data.
This document provides an overview of research methodology and key concepts in business research. It discusses:
1. The meaning of research and why study business research, which is a systematic process that provides information to guide managerial decisions.
2. Factors stimulating interest in research methods, such as increased competition, government interventions, and advances in data collection/analysis tools.
3. Key areas of research in management including marketing, personnel, finance, and production.
4. Types of research such as basic/applied and problem identification/problem solving.
5. Concepts and terminology used in research like variables, hypotheses, data sources, and primary/secondary data.
Meaning of research Research is a scientific and systematic investigation and contribution of
new facts to the existing repertoire/ stock of knowledge in any branch. Thus, it is a systematic quest of finding effective solution to a problem. Why study Business research ? Business research is a systematic inquiry that provides information to guide managerial decisions. More specifically, it is a process of planning, acquiring, analyzing, and disseminating relevant data, information, and insights to decision makers in ways that mobilize the organization to take appropriate actions that, in turn, maximize Business performance.
Factors stimulating interests in studying Research Methods : 1. Explosive growth and influence of internet 2. Stakeholders imposing greater influence 3. More vigorous competition. 4. More govt. interventions. 5. More complex decisions. 6. Maturing of management as a group of disciplines. 7. Greater computing power and speed. 1. Lower cost data collection. 2. Advanced visualization tools 3. More integration of data DATA WAREHOUSE 4. More and faster access to information DBMS & RDBMS 5. Advanced analytical tools for enhanced insights DATA MINING & ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE 6. Customized Reporting 8. New perspective on established research methodologies.
Using Data Warehouse and Data Mining in Marketing Research DATA SOURCES Company Records Surveys Other Sources BUILD DATA WAREHOUSE DATA MINING Look for patterns of Purchase, Behaviour, Attitudes by analysing Data from Warehouse
Use the mined data to design Marketing or Communication Campaigns. Measure results of the campaign, And refine/repeat the process If needed Determine the basis of segmentation Establish market potential and responsiveness for various segments Select target markets Create lifestyle profiles: demography, media, and product image characteristics SEGMENTATION RESEARCH
Test concept Determine optimal product design Package tests Product modification Brand positioning and repositioning Test marketing Control score tests
PRODUCT RESEARCH Research Areas in Management (Scope)
MARKETING PRICING RESEARCH Pricing policies Importance of price in brand selection Product line pricing Price elasticity of demand Initiating and responding to price changes $ALE PROMOTIONAL RESEARCH Optimal promotional budget Sales promotion relationship Optimal promotional mix Copy decisions Media decisions Creative advertising testing Evaluation of advertising effectiveness Claim substantiation 0.00% APR DISTRIBUTION RESEARCH Determine Types of distribution Attitudes of channel members Intensity of wholesale & resale coverage Channel margins Location of retail and wholesale outlets
Personnel : Manpower Planning Performance appraisal systems Conflict management Design of incentive plans Leadership styles. Training methods Change Management. Job satisfaction. Etc. Finance : Financial performance . Cost analysis model Portfolio management. Break- even analysis. Working Capital management model. Economic growth models. Etc. Production : Forecasting Inventory control Master production scheduling. Quality control Work design. Maintenance management. Method study. Flow and job shop scheduling etc.
Types of Research Basic Research (Fundamental/Pure research)
Applied Research Problem identification research Problem solving research A Classification of Applied Research Applied Research Problem Identification Research Problem Solving Research Market Potential Research Market Share Research Market Characteristics Research Sales Analysis Research Forecasting Research Business Trends Research Segmentation Research Product Research Promotion Research Distribution Research Job satisfaction research JARGONS AND TERMINOLOGY CONCEPTS AND OVERVIEW VARIABLES : In practice , the term variable is used as a synonym for construct or the property being studied. In this context, a variable is a symbol of an event, act, characteristics, trait, or attribute that can be measured and to which we assign categorical values. For purpose of Data entry and analysis, we assign numerical value to a variable based on the variables properties.
RANDOM VARIABLES : A variable is random if it takes on different values as a result of the outcomes of a random experiment. The values of the random variable are the numerical values corresponding to each possible outcome of the random experiment. Types of Random variables Dichotomous Discrete Continuous Dichotomous variables : It takes on only two values, reflecting the presence and absence of a property. The values are generally represented by 0 & 1. For ex. Male or Female. Discrete variables : If a random variable is allowed to take on only a limited number of values is called discrete random variable. Continuous variable : If a random variable is allowed to assume any value within a given range or in some cases , an infinite set , it is a continuous random variable. Independent and Dependent Variable : If one variable depends upon or is a consequence of the other variable is termed as dependent variable, and the variable that is antecedent to the dependent variable is termed as independent variable. Independent variable a.k.a Predictor, Presumed cause, Stimulus, Antecedent, Manipulated. Dependent variable a.k.a Criterion, Presumed effect, Respond, Consequence, Measured outcome. Moderating Variables (MV) : It is a second independent variable which has got significant or contingent effect on the originally stated IV-DV relationship. For ex. Commission based compensation (IV) will lead to increased sales productivity (DV) per worker, especially among younger workers (MV).
Extraneous Variables (EV): Variables other than the independent variables , that influence the dependent variables are termed as extraneous variables. Intervening variables (IVV) : An intervening variable is a conceptual mechanism through which IV and MV might affect the DV. IVV may be defined as that factor which theoretically affects the observed phenomenon but cannot be seen, measured, or manipulated; its effect must be inferred from the effects of the independent and moderate variables on the observed phenomenon. In the case of compensation hypothesis, one might view the intervening variable to be job satisfaction. An example illustrating the relationships among the above stated variables. A promotional campaign (IV) will increase savings activity (DV) , especially when free prizes are offered (MV) , but chiefly among small savers (EV-control). The results come from enhancing the motivation to save (IVV).
Propositions and Hypothesis Proposition is defined as a statement about observable phenomena (concepts) that may be judged as true or false. When a proposition is formulated for empirical testing , it is called hypothesis. A hypothesis is an unproven statement or proposition about a factor or phenomenon that is of interest to the researcher. Hypotheses also described as proposition in which variables are assigned to cases. A Case is defined as the entity or thing the hypothesis talks about. For example: In Udaipur (case) Colgate toothpaste is the most preferred (variable) brand. Also, In Rajasthan (cases) Colgate toothpaste is the most preferred (variable) brand
Descriptive Hypothesis : It states the existence, size, form, or distribution of some variable. For ex. 70% of high school educated males (cases) are unemployed (variable)
Relational Hypotheses : These are statements that describe a relationship between two variables with respect to some case. For ex. Foreign brands (variable) are perceived to be of better quality (variable) by Indian (case) than the indigenous brands. The nature of relationship between country of origin and perceived quality is not specified. Correlational Hypotheses : It states that the variables occur together in some specified manner without implying that one causes the other. For ex. The people of Udaipur prefer eating fast food than Jaipur. Such weak claims are often made when there are more basic causal forces that affect both variables. Explanatory (causal) hypotheses : There is an implication that the existence of or a change in one variable causes or leads to a change in the other variable. For ex. An increase in disposable income leads to the growth of entertainment industry. ROLE OF THE HYPOTHESIS It guides the direction of the study. It identifies facts that are relevant. It suggests the appropriate form of research design. It provides a framework for organizing the conclusions. FEATURES OF A STRONG HYPOTHESIS Adequate for its purpose. Testable Better than its rivals.
Types of Data There are broadly two types of Data 1) Primary Data 2) Secondary Data
Primary Data : Data originated by the researcher for the specific purpose of addressing the research problem. Secondary Data : Data collected for some purposes other than the problems at hand. For ex. A a retail mart wants to find out the criteria used by the households to select departmental stores. The secondary data can be obtained from Marketing Journals (Journal of Retailing, Journal of Marketing Research etc.) A COMPARISON OF PRIMARY AND SECONDARY DATA Primary Data Secondary Data Collection purpose For the problems at hand not at hand Collection process very involved rapid and easy Collection cost High Low Collection Time Long Short
Primary Data : There are two types of primary data. 1) Qualitative Data 2) Quantitative Data
Quantitative Data A) Descriptive B) Causal
Secondary Data : There are two types of secondary Data 1) Internal 2) External Internal Data (Types) External Data (Types) Ready to use Published materials Requires further processing Computerized database Syndicated services
Survey Data Observational And other data Experimental Data RESEARCH PROCESS Step 1. Problem Definition Discover the management dilemma Define the management question Define the research question Refine the research questions Step-2. Research Proposal Step-3. Development of an Approach to the problems Formulating an objective/theoretical framework. Developing an analytical models, research questions, and hypothesis Step-4. Research design formulation. Data collection design Sampling design. Instrument development and pilot testing Step-5. Data collection and preparation Step-6. Data preparation and analysis. Step-7. Report preparation and presentation. Step-8. Management Decision. Problem Formulation / Definition Problem definition is A broad statement of the general problem and identification of the specific components of the research problem. It allows researcher to obtain all the information needed to address the management decision problem. It guides the researcher in proceeding with the projects. Broad statement : It is the initial statement of the research problem that provides an appropriate perspective of the problem. Specific components : It focus on the key aspects of the problem and provide clear guidelines on how to proceed further. Management decision problem Research problem Should a new product be introduced ? To determine consumer preferences and purchase intentions for the proposed new product. Should the Ad. Campaign be changed ? Determining the effectiveness of the current Ad. campaign Tasks Involved in defining the Problem 1) Discussions with Decision Maker (s) 2) Interview with the experts. 3) Secondary Data analysis. 4) Literature Review. 5) Qualitative Research. Environmental context to the problems Factors having impact on the definition of the Research Problems. 1) Past information and forecasts. 2) Resources and constraints. 3) Objectives 4) Test unit property (Respondents Behaviour) 5) Legal Environment 6) Economic Environment 7) Technological skills. LITERATURE REVIEW Literature review is the systematic study of scholarly articles, publications, scant literature for getting the relevant data and trends from the previous research. It also generates the need for proposed research work by appraising the shortcomings or information gaps in secondary data sources.
Summary of the Beginning Stages of Marketing Research Symptom of Marketing Problem Exploratory Research Formulation of Research Problem Initial understanding of Possible Causes of the Problem Marketing Decision Problem Statement of Research Objectives Sales are not picking up for a new product/brand The brand has an image problem How can we improve the brands image? See next slide See next slide Summary of the Beginning Stages of Marketing Research - Continued Research Questions: 1) What is the current image of our brand compared to competitors brands? 2) What is the role of our price, packaging, distribution, advertising, etc on the current image of our brand? 3) Will a change in packaging lead to a positive change in image? Research Objectives 1) To determine our brands image compared to competitors brands. 2) To determine the source of our current image problems. 3) To examine the specific role of packaging in the present image of our brand.
RESEARCH PROPOSAL Once the research gap is established by defining the problem, the research proposal is made. Research proposal is a written document which suggests the projects purpose and the proposed methods of investigation. Time and budgets, responsibilities and obligations are spelled out. DEVELOPMENT OF AN APPROACH TO THE PROBLEM Components of the approach : 1. Objective /Theoretical Framework. 2. Analytical Model . a. Verbal Model b. Graphical Model c. Mathematical Model 3. Research Questions (RQ) 4. Hypotheses. 5. Specification of Information needed. Objective/theoretical Framework : Research should be based on objective evidence and supported by theory. Objective evidence is gathered by compiling relevant findings from secondary sources. Theory is a conceptual scheme based on foundational statements called axiom, which are assumed to be true. The researcher should rely on theory to determine which variables should be investigated.
Analytical Model : It is a set of variables and their interrelationship designed to represent , in whole or in part, some real system and process. Verbal Model : The variables and their relationships are stated in prose form. Graphical Model : It is visual and used to isolate variables and to suggest directions of relationships. Mathematical Model : Explicitly specify the relationships among variables, usually in equation form. EXAMPLE OF MODEL BUILDING Objective : Analyzing the key factors for a Retail store patronage/ Loyalty. Verbal Model : A consumer first becomes aware of the retail store. That person then gains an understanding of the store by evaluating in terms of the factors comprising choice criteria. Based on the evaluation, the consumer forms a degree of preference for the store. If preference enough, the consumer will patronize the store. Graphical Model Patronage
Preference
Understanding : Evaluation
Awareness Mathematical model n y = a0 + ai +xi i=1 Where, y = Degree of preference a0 , ai = Model parameters to be examined statistically. xi = Store patronage factors that constitute the choice criteria.
Research Questions (RQs) Research questions are refined statements of the specific components of the problem. The formulation of research questions are not only guided by the problem definition , but also the theoretical framework and the analytical model adopted . Development of Research questions and hypothesis Components of the problem Objective / Theoretical framework Research questions Analytical Model Hypothesis For Ex. : RQ : Do customers of Big Bazaar exhibit store loyalty ? H : Customers of Big Bazaar are loyal. Specification of Information needed By focusing on each component of the problem and the analytical framework, models, RQs, Hypothesis; researcher can determine what information is required to carry out the research project.
RESEARCH DESIGN Research design is a blueprint for the collection , measurement, and analysis of data. It specifies the details of the procedures necessary for obtaining the information needed to structure and/or solve research problems. Components of a Research Design Design the exploratory, descriptive, and/or causal phases of the research Define the information needed Specify the measurement and scaling procedures Construct and pretest a questionnaire (interviewing form) or an appropriate form for data collection Specify the sampling process and sample size Develop a plan of data analysis Classification of Research Design Exploratory Research Design Conclusive Research Design Descriptive Research
Causal research
Exploratory & Conclusive Research Differences Objective:
Character- istics:
Findings /Results:
Outcome:
To provide insights and understanding.
Information needed is defined only loosely. Research process is flexible and unstructured. Sample is small and non- representative. Analysis of primary data is qualitative.
Tentative.
Generally followed by further exploratory or conclusive research. To test specific hypotheses and examine relationships.
Information needed is clearly defined. Research process is formal and structured. Sample is large and representative. Data analysis is quantitative.
Conclusive.
Findings used as input into decision making. Exploratory Conclusive Objective:
Characteristics:
Methods: A Comparison of Basic Research Designs Discovery of ideas and insights
Flexible, versatile
Often the front end of total research design
Expert surveys Pilot surveys Secondary data Qualitative research Describe test unit characteristics or functions
Marked by the prior formulation of specific hypotheses
Preplanned and structured design
Secondary data Surveys Panels Observation and other data Determine cause and effect relationships
Manipulation of one or more independent variables
Control of other mediating variables
Experiments Exploratory Descriptive Causal Uses of Exploratory Research Formulate a problem or define a problem more precisely Identify alternative courses of action Develop hypotheses Isolate key variables and relationships for further examination Gain insights for developing an approach to the problem Establish priorities for further research Methods of Exploratory Research Survey of experts Pilot surveys Secondary data analyzed in a qualitative way Qualitative research Uses of Descriptive Research To describe the characteristics of relevant groups, such as consumers, salespeople, organizations, or market areas. To estimate the percentage of units in a specified population exhibiting a certain behavior. To determine the perceptions of product characteristics. To determine the degree to which marketing variables are associated. To make specific predictions
Methods of Descriptive Research Secondary data analyzed in a quantitative as opposed to a qualitative manner Surveys Panels Observational and other data Uses of Casual Research To understand which variables are the cause (independent variables) and which variables are the effect (dependent variables) of a phenomenon To determine the nature of the relationship between the causal variables and the effect to be predicted METHOD: Experiments
Exploratory Research Design: Secondary Data
A Classification of Secondary Data Secondary Data Ready to Use Requires Further Processing Published Materials Computerized Databases Syndicated Services Internal External A Classification of Qualitative Research Procedures Association Techniques Completion Techniques Construction Techniques Expressive Techniques Direct (Non disguised) Indirect (Disguised) Focus Groups Depth Interviews Projective Techniques Qualitative Research Procedures Exploratory Research Design: Qualitative Research Characteristics of Focus Groups Group Size 8-12
Group Composition Homogeneous, respondents, prescreened
Physical Setting Relaxed, informal atmosphere
Time Duration 1-3 hours
Recording Use of audiocassettes and videotapes
Moderator Observational, interpersonal, and communication skills of the moderator Depth Interview Techniques: Laddering technique, allows the researcher to tap into respondents deep underlying psychological and emotional reasons that affect a phenomenon.
hidden issue questioning, the focus is not on socially shared values but rather on personal sore spots; not on general lifestyles but on deeply felt personal concerns.
Depth Interview Techniques: Symbolic Analysis Symbolic analysis attempts to analyze the symbolic meaning of objects by comparing them with their opposites. The logical opposites of a product that are investigated are: non-usage of the product, attributes of an imaginary non- product, and opposite types of products.
What would it be like if you could no longer use airplanes?
Without planes, I would have to rely on letters and long distance calls.
Airlines sell to the managers face-to-face communication.
Advertising theme: The airline will do the same thing for a manager as Federal Express does for a package. Definition of Projective Techniques An unstructured, indirect form of questioning that encourages respondents to project their underlying motivations, beliefs, attitudes or feelings regarding the issues of concern. In projective techniques, respondents are asked to interpret the behavior of others. In interpreting the behavior of others, respondents indirectly project their own motivations, beliefs, attitudes, or feelings into the situation. Word Association In word association, respondents are presented with a list of words, one at a time and asked to respond to each with the first word that comes to mind. The words of interest, called test words, are interspersed throughout the list which also contains some neutral, or filler words to disguise the purpose of the study. Responses are analyzed by calculating:
(1) the frequency with which any word is given as a response; (2) the amount of time that elapses before a response is given; and (3) the number of respondents who do not respond at all to a test word within a reasonable period of time. Word Association EXAMPLE STIMULUS MRS. M MRS. C washday everyday ironing fresh and sweet clean pure air soiled scrub don't; husband does clean filth this neighborhood dirt bubbles bath soap and water family squabbles children towels dirty wash
Completion Techniques In Sentence completion, respondents are given incomplete sentences and asked to complete them. Generally, they are asked to use the first word or phrase that comes to mind.
A person who shops at Big Bazaar is ______________________
Dr. Manmohan Singh is most liked by ____________________
When I think of shopping in a department store, I ________
A variation of sentence completion is paragraph completion, in which the respondent completes a paragraph beginning with the stimulus phrase.
Construction Techniques With a picture response, the respondents are asked to describe a series of pictures of ordinary as well as unusual events. The respondent's interpretation of the pictures gives indications of that individual's personality.
In cartoon tests, cartoon characters are shown in a specific situation related to the problem. The respondents are asked to indicate what one cartoon character might say in response to the comments of another character. Cartoon tests are simpler to administer and analyze than picture response techniques. Expressive Techniques In expressive techniques, respondents are presented with a verbal or visual situation and asked to relate the feelings and attitudes of other people to the situation.
Role playing Respondents are asked to play the role or assume the behavior of someone else.
Third-person technique The respondent is presented with a verbal or visual situation and the respondent is asked to relate the beliefs and attitudes of a third person rather than directly expressing personal beliefs and attitudes. This third person may be a friend, neighbor, colleague, or a typical person. A Classification of Research Data Survey Data Observational and Other Data Experimental Data Qualitative Data Quantitative Data Descriptive Causal Research Data Secondary Data Primary Data Descriptive Research Design: Survey and Observation A Classification of Survey Methods Traditional Telephone Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing Mail Interview Mail Panel In-Home Mall Intercept Computer-Assisted Personal Interviewing E-mail Internet Survey Methods Telephone Personal Mail Electronic Criteria for Evaluating Survey Methods Response Rate Survey response rate is broadly defined as the percentage of the total attempted interviews that are completed.
Perceived Anonymity Perceived anonymity refers to the respondents' perceptions that their identities will not be discerned by the interviewer or the researcher.
Social Desirability/Sensitive Information Social desirability is the tendency of the respondents to give answers that are socially acceptable, whether or not they are true.
Potential for Interviewer Bias The extent of the interviewer's role determines the potential for bias.
Speed The total time taken for administering the survey to the entire sample.
Cost The total cost of administering the survey and collecting the data. Criteria Phone/ CATI In-Home Interviews Mall- Intercept Interviews CAPI Mail Surveys Mail Panels E-Mail Internet Flexibility of data collection Moderate to high High High Moderate to high Low Low Low Moderate to high Diversity of questions Low High High High Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate to high Use of physical stimuli Low Moderate to high High High Moderate Moderate Low Moderate Sample control Moderate to high Potentially high Moderate Moderate Low Moderate to high Low Low to moderate Control of data collection environment Moderate Moderate to high High High Low Low Low Low Control of field force Moderate Low Moderate Moderate High High High High Quantity of data Low High Moderate Moderate Moderate High Moderate Moderate Response rate Moderate High High High Low Moderate Low Very Low Perceived anonymity of the respondent Moderate Low Low Low High High Moderate High Social desirability Moderate High High Moderate to High Low Low Moderate Low Obtaining sensitive information High Low Low Low to moderate High Moderate to High Moderate High Potential for interviewer bias Moderate High High Low None None None None Speed High Moderate Moderate to high Moderate to high Low Low to moderate High Very high Cost Moderate High Moderate to high Moderate to high Low Low to moderate Low Low
A Comparative Evaluation of Survey Methods Observation Methods (Nature)
Structured versus Unstructured Observation
For structured observation, the researcher specifies in detail what is to be observed and how the measurements are to be recorded, e.g., an auditor performing inventory analysis in a store.
In unstructured observation, the observer monitors all aspects of the phenomenon that seem relevant to the problem at hand, e.g., observing children playing with new toys. Observation Methods (Nature)
Disguised versus Undisguised Observation
In disguised observation, the respondents are unaware that they are being observed. Disguise may be accomplished by using one-way mirrors, hidden cameras, or inconspicuous mechanical devices. Observers may be disguised as shoppers or sales clerks.
In undisguised observation, the respondents are aware that they are under observation. Observation Methods (Nature)
Natural versus Contrived Observation
Natural observation involves observing behavior as it takes places in the environment. For example, one could observe the behavior of respondents eating fast food in a restaurant.
In contrived observation, respondents' behavior is observed in an artificial environment, such as a test kitchen. A Classification of Observation Methods Observation Methods Personal Observation Mechanical Observation Trace Analysis Content Analysis Audit Observation Methods Personal Observation A researcher observes actual behavior as it occurs. The observer does not attempt to manipulate the phenomenon being observed but merely records what takes place. For example, a researcher might record traffic counts and observe traffic flows in a department store. Observation Methods Mechanical Observation Do not require respondents' direct participation. the AC Nielsen audimeter turnstiles that record the number of people entering or leaving a building. On-site cameras (still, motion picture, or video) Optical scanners in supermarkets
Observation Methods Audit The researcher collects data by examining physical records or performing inventory analysis. Data are collected personally by the researcher. The data are based upon counts, usually of physical objects. Retail and wholesale audits conducted by marketing research suppliers. Observation Methods Content Analysis The objective, systematic, and quantitative description of the manifest content of a communication. The unit of analysis may be words, characters (individuals or objects), themes (propositions), space and time measures (length or duration of the message), or topics (subject of the message). Analytical categories for classifying the units are developed and the communication is broken down according to prescribed rules. Observation Methods Trace Analysis Data collection is based on physical traces, or evidence, of past behavior.
The selective erosion of tiles in a museum indexed by the replacement rate was used to determine the relative popularity of exhibits. The number of different fingerprints on a page was used to gauge the readership of various advertisements in a magazine. The position of the radio dials in cars brought in for service was used to estimate share of listening audience of various radio stations. The age and condition of cars in a parking lot were used to assess the affluence of customers. The magazines people donated to charity were used to determine people's favorite magazines. Internet visitors leave traces which can be analyzed to examine browsing and usage behavior by using cookies. A Comparative Evaluation of Observation Methods Criteria Personal Mechanical Audit Content Trace Observation Observation Analysis Analysis Analysis
Degree of structure Low Low to high High High Medium Degree of disguise Medium Low to high Low High High Ability to observe High Low to high High Medium Low in natural setting Observation bias High Low Low Medium Medium Analysis Bias High Low to Low Low Medium Medium General remarks Most Can be Expensive Limited to Method of flexible intrusive commu- last resort nications Concept of Causality A statement such as "X causes Y " will have the following meaning to an ordinary person and to a scientist.
____________________________________________________ Ordinary Meaning Scientific Meaning ____________________________________________________ X is the only cause of Y. X is only one of a number of possible causes of Y.
X must always lead to Y The occurrence of X makes the (X is a deterministic occurrence of Y more probable cause of Y). (X is a probabilistic cause of Y).
It is possible to prove We can never prove that X is a that X is a cause of Y. cause of Y. At best, we can infer that X is a cause of Y. ____________________________________________________ Conditions for Causality Concomitant variation is the extent to which a cause, X, and an effect, Y, occur together or vary together in the way predicted by the hypothesis under consideration. The time order of occurrence condition states that the causing event must occur either before or simultaneously with the effect; it cannot occur afterwards. The absence of other possible causal factors means that the factor or variable being investigated should be the only possible causal explanation. Definitions and Concepts Independent variables are variables or alternatives that are manipulated and whose effects are measured and compared, e.g., price levels. Test units are individuals, organizations, or other entities whose response to the independent variables or treatments is being examined, e.g., consumers or stores. Dependent variables are the variables which measure the effect of the independent variables on the test units, e.g., sales, profits, and market shares. Extraneous variables are all variables other than the independent variables that affect the response of the test units, e.g., store size, store location, and competitive effort. Experimental Design An experimental design is a set of procedures specifying
the test units and how these units are to be divided into homogeneous subsamples, what independent variables or treatments are to be manipulated, what dependent variables are to be measured, and how the extraneous variables are to be controlled. Validity in Experimentation Internal validity refers to whether the manipulation of the independent variables or treatments actually caused the observed effects on the dependent variables. Control of extraneous variables is a necessary condition for establishing internal validity. External validity refers to whether the cause-and- effect relationships found in the experiment can be generalized. To what populations, settings, times, independent variables and dependent variables can the results be projected?
Extraneous Variables History refers to specific events that are external to the experiment but occur at the same time as the experiment. Maturation (MA) refers to changes in the test units themselves that occur with the passage of time. Testing effects are caused by the process of experimentation. Typically, these are the effects on the experiment of taking a measure on the dependent variable before and after the presentation of the treatment. The main testing effect (MT) occurs when a prior observation affects a latter observation. Extraneous Variables In the interactive testing effect (IT), a prior measurement affects the test unit's response to the independent variable. Instrumentation (I) refers to changes in the measuring instrument, in the observers or in the scores themselves. Statistical regression effects (SR) occur when test units with extreme scores move closer to the average score during the course of the experiment. Selection bias (SB) refers to the improper assignment of test units to treatment conditions. Mortality (MO) refers to the loss of test units while the experiment is in progress.
Controlling Extraneous Variables Randomization refers to the random assignment of test units to experimental groups by using random numbers. Treatment conditions are also randomly assigned to experimental groups. Matching involves comparing test units on a set of key background variables before assigning them to the treatment conditions. Statistical control involves measuring the extraneous variables and adjusting for their effects through statistical analysis. Design control involves the use of experiments designed to control specific extraneous variables.
A Classification of Experimental Designs Pre-experimental One-Shot Case Study
One Group Pretest-Posttest
Static Group True Experimental Pretest-Posttest Control Group
Posttest: Only Control Group
Solomon Four- Group Quasi Experimental Time Series
Multiple Time Series Statistical Randomized Blocks
Latin Square
Factorial Design Experimental Designs Statistical Designs Statistical designs consist of a series of basic experiments that allow for statistical control and analysis of external variables and offer the following advantages:
The effects of more than one independent variable can be measured. Specific extraneous variables can be statistically controlled. Economical designs can be formulated when each test unit is measured more than once.
The most common statistical designs are the randomized block design, the Latin square design, and the factorial design.
Randomized Block Design Is useful when there is only one major external variable, such as store size, that might influence the dependent variable. The test units are blocked, or grouped, on the basis of the external variable. By blocking, the researcher ensures that the various experimental and control groups are matched closely on the external variable. Randomized Block Design Treatment Groups Block Store Commercial Commercial Commercial Number Patronage A B C
1 Heavy A B C 2 Medium A B C 3 Low A B C 4 None A B C
Latin Square Design Allows the researcher to statistically control two non interacting external variables as well as to manipulate the independent variable. Each external or blocking variable is divided into an equal number of blocks, or levels. The independent variable is also divided into the same number of levels. A Latin square is conceptualized with the rows and columns representing the blocks in the two external variables. The levels of the independent variable are assigned to the cells in the table. The assignment rule is that each level of the independent variable should appear only once in each row and each column.
Latin Square Design Interest in the Store Store Patronage High Medium Low
Heavy B A C Medium C B A Low and none A C B
Factorial Design Is used to measure the effects of two or more independent variables at various levels. A factorial design may also be conceptualized as a table. In a two-factor design, each level of one variable represents a row and each level of another variable represents a column.
Factorial Design Amount of Humor Amount of Store No Medium High Information Humor Humor Humor
Low A B C Medium D E F High G H I
SAMPLING DESIGN AND PROCEDURE The basic idea of sampling is that by selecting some of the elements in a population, we may draw conclusions about the entire population. Population : The aggregate of all the elements, sharing some common set of characteristics, that comprises the universe for the purpose of the research problem. Census : A complete enumeration of the elements of a population or study objects. Sample : A subgroup of the elements of a population or study objects. Sampling Frame : A representation of the elements of the target population. It consists of a list or set of directions for identifying the target population. Target population : The collection of elements or objects that possess the information sought by the researcher and about which inferences are to be made. The target population should be defined in terms of elements, sampling units, extent, and time. An element is the object about which or from which the information is desired, e.g., the respondent. A sampling unit is an element, or a unit containing the element, that is available for selection at some stage of the sampling process. Extent refers to the geographical boundaries. Time is the time period under consideration.
Conditions Favoring the Use of Type of Study
Sample Census
1. Budget
Small
Large 2. Time available
Short Long 3. Population size
Large Small 4. Variance in the characteristic
Small Large 5. Cost of sampling errors
Low High 6. Cost of nonsampling errors
High Low 7. Nature of measurement
Destructive Nondestructive 8. Attention to individual cases Yes No Sample vs. Census The Sampling Design Process Define the Population Determine the Sampling Frame Select Sampling Technique(s) Determine the Sample Size Execute the Sampling Process
the importance of the decision the nature of the research the number of variables the nature of the analysis sample sizes used in similar studies completion rates resource constraints Qualitative factors in determining the sample size
Classification of Sampling Techniques Sampling Techniques Non probability Sampling Techniques Probability Sampling Techniques Convenience Sampling Judgmental Sampling Quota Sampling Snowball Sampling Systematic Sampling Stratified Sampling Cluster Sampling Other Sampling Techniques Simple Random Sampling Convenience Sampling Convenience sampling attempts to obtain a sample of convenient elements. Often, respondents are selected because they happen to be in the right place at the right time.
use of students, and members of social organizations mall intercept interviews without qualifying the respondents department stores using charge account lists people on the street interviews Judgmental Sampling Judgmental sampling is a form of convenience sampling in which the population elements are selected based on the judgment of the researcher.
test markets purchase engineers selected in industrial marketing research expert witnesses used in court Quota Sampling Quota sampling may be viewed as two-stage restricted judgmental sampling. The first stage consists of developing control categories, or quotas, of population elements. List control characteristics and determine the distribution of control characteristics in the target population. In the second stage, sample elements are selected based on convenience or judgment.
Population Sample composition composition Control Characteristic Percentage Percentage Number Sex Male 48 48 480 Female 52 52 520 ____ ____ ____ 100 100 1000 Snowball Sampling In snowball sampling, an initial group of respondents is selected, usually at random.
After being interviewed, these respondents are asked to identify others who belong to the target population of interest. Subsequent respondents are selected based on the referrals. Simple Random Sampling Each element in the population has a known and equal probability of selection. Each possible sample of a given size (n) has a known and equal probability of being the sample actually selected. This implies that every element is selected independently of every other element. Limitations: Difficult to construct a sampling frame permitting simple random sample to draw. SRS results in samples that are spread over large geographical areas; increasing time and cost of data collection. Low precision and large standard errors May or may not result in a representative sample. Systematic Sampling The sample is chosen by selecting a random starting point and then picking every ith element in succession from the sampling frame. The sampling interval, i, is determined by dividing the population size N by the sample size n and rounding to the nearest integer. When the ordering of the elements is related to the characteristic of interest, systematic sampling increases the representativeness of the sample. If the ordering of the elements produces a cyclical pattern, systematic sampling may decrease the representativeness of the sample. For example, there are 100,000 elements in the population and a sample of 1,000 is desired. In this case the sampling interval, i, is 100. A random number between 1 and 100 is selected. If, for example, this number is 23, the sample consists of elements 23, 123, 223, 323, 423, 523, and so on. Stratified Sampling A two-step process in which the population is partitioned into subpopulations, or strata. The strata should be mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive in that every population element should be assigned to one and only one stratum and no population elements should be omitted. Next, elements are selected from each stratum by a random procedure, usually SRS. A major objective of stratified sampling is to increase precision without increasing cost. The elements within a stratum should be as homogeneous as possible, but the elements in different strata should be as heterogeneous as possible. The stratification variables should also be closely related to the characteristic of interest. Finally, the variables should decrease the cost of the stratification process by being easy to measure and apply. In proportionate stratified sampling, the size of the sample drawn from each stratum is proportionate to the relative size of that stratum in the total population. In disproportionate stratified sampling, the size of the sample from each stratum is proportionate to the relative size of that stratum and to the standard deviation of the distribution of the characteristic of interest Cluster Sampling The target population is first divided into mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subpopulations, or clusters. Then a random sample of clusters is selected, based on a probability sampling technique such as SRS. For each selected cluster, either all the elements are included in the sample (one-stage) or a sample of elements is drawn probabilistically (two-stage). Elements within a cluster should be as heterogeneous as possible, but clusters themselves should be as homogeneous as possible. Ideally, each cluster should be a small-scale representation of the population. In probability proportionate to size sampling, the clusters are sampled with probability proportional to size. In the second stage, the probability of selecting a sampling unit in a selected cluster varies inversely with the size of the cluster. Technique Strengths Weaknesses Nonprobability Sampling Convenience sampling Least expensive, least time-consuming, most convenient Selection bias, sample not representative, not recommended for descriptive or causal research Judgmental sampling Low cost, convenient, not time-consuming Does not allow generalization, subjective Quota sampling Sample can be controlled for certain characteristics S election bias, no assurance of R epresentativeness Snowball sampling Can estimate rare characteristics Time-consuming Probability sampling Simple random sampling (SRS) Easily understood, results projectable Difficult to construct sampling frame, expensive, lower precision, no assurance of representativeness. Systematic sampling Can increase representativeness, easier to implement than SRS, sampling frame not necessary Can decrease representativeness Stratified sampling Include all important subpopulations, precision Difficult to select relevant stratification variables, not feasible to stratify on many variables, expensive Cluster sampling Easy to implement, cost effective Imprecise, difficult to compute and interpret results Strengths and Weaknesses of Basic Sampling Techniques Choosing Nonprobability vs. Probability Sampling Conditions Favoring the Use of Factors
Nonprobability sampling Probability sampling
Nature of research
Exploratory
Conclusive Relative magnitude of sampling and nonsampling errors
Nonsampling errors are larger Sampling errors are larger Variability in the population