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Triumphant Institute of
Management Education P
Ltd
Nyayapati Gautam
Afghanistan Post
2014 scenario
Issues Post 2014
Effectiveness of the ANSF:
Pentagon review: Only one of 23
Afghan army brigades was
capable of functioning on its
own.
Literacy rates are low
Desertion rates are high - joined
the insurgency.
"green-on-blue" attacks: Afghan
troops attacking their American
comrades.

Possibilities Post 2014
ANSF disintegration along
ethnic lines:
If the Taliban, a Pashtun entity,
comes back to power it could
lead to civil war.
Pashtun vs non-Pashtun forces.


Possibilities Post 2014
The Taliban is itself not united.
Haqqani & Quetta Shura
Pakistan may continue to
provide safe havens to the
Talliban

Possibilities Post 2014
May lead to Political Instability:
Four different coalitions
competing for power in
Afghanistan today.
Pashtun-non-Pashtun political
divide may lead to ethnic
polarisation
Integration of the Taliban into the
Pashtun-heavy central
government in Kabul Instability
The Tajiks, Uzbeks and the
Hazaras believe that Karzai is
pro-Pashtun.
Impervious to ethnic sensitivities.
Possibilities Post 2014
Reconciliation with the Taliban:
Could be acceptable to the
international community
The Taliban feel triumphant and
are not in a mood to reconcile.
The terms set by the Karzai
Govt.:
Adherence to the Constitution
and Renunciation of violence.


Possibilities Post 2014
Drugs could be a huge
problem:
Efforts to curtail the production of
drugs and curb narco-trafficking
have failed.
Vested interests in Tajikistan,
Kyrgyzstan and Russia to
facilitate drug trafficking from
Afghanistan.
Taliban are dependent on drugs
money at the moment
Socio economic issues.
Possibilities Post 2014
Integration with Central Asia:
Transit hub between the Indian
subcontinent and Central Asia.
Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-
Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas
pipeline
It can earn substantial revenue
from overland trade.

Possibilities Post 2014
Growth of female literacy
India in Afghanistan -
Primary Goals
Prevent restoration of the
Taliban
Limit Pakistans influence
Ensure that no hostile force is in
power.
Militancy is linked to problems in
Kashmir.
India in Afghanistan
Pakistan may not permit India
space in Afghanistan.
Counter to this thought:
Pakistan is fast losing goodwill.
Taliban may not be able to take
over Kabul so easily. Support
from Pakistan will be hard to
come by.
Recognition of a requirement of
help. India a reliable partner.
India in Afghanistan
Go beyond aid.
An FTA with Afghanistan
Investment summit on
Afghanistan
Help Afghanistan boost its
revenue generating capacity.
We can contribute in the field of
revitalising agriculture, building
infrastructure long term
economic growth.
India in Afghanistan
This long-term arrangement
will enable us to build ties with
Central Asia.
Without worrying about Pakistan.
India in Afghanistan
India Soft Power
No military commitment
American reluctance Pakistani
sensitivities
Political reluctance
Strategic Partnership
Oct 2011
India will help train ANSF
Economic aid and assistance.
The agreement provides an
additional $500 million on top of
the $1 billion India has already
spent since 2002.
In addition, India and
Afghanistan will cooperate in the
development of mining and
energy production.
India in Afghanistan
President Karzais government
had awarded India mining
rights for the countrys biggest
iron deposit.
India in Afghanistan
And finally, the agreement
states that Afghanistan and
India will:
Establish a strategic dialogue
between their respective national
security advisers
to provide a framework for
cooperation in the area of
national security.