Describing Variation &

Probability
Riduwan, MM.
Describing Variation
Stem and Leaf Plot
Histogram
Numerical Summary of Data
The box plot
Probability distribution


Describing Variation
Stem and leaf Plot and Histogram
The shape of the distribution of the data
The central tendency in the data
The scattered variability in the data
Numerical Summary data
Sample average
Sample variance
Sample standard Deviation
Describing Variation
The Box Plot
Very useful in graphical comparison
among data sets
Visual impact and easy to understand
Example
The data below are
diameters (in mm) of holes
in a group of 12 wings
leading edge ribs for the
commercial transport
airplane. Construct a box
plot of those data.

Hole Diameters (in mm) in
Wing Leading Edge Ribs
Solution
Median =
(120.5+120.7)=
120.6
Q1= 120.35
Q3= 120.9
120.5 120.4 120.7
120.9 120.2 121.1
120.3 120.1 120.9
121.3 120.5 120.8
120.1
121.3
120.1 120.6 120.9
Probability distribution
Probability distribution
Continuous distribution
When the variable being measured is
expressed on a continuous scale
Discrete distribution
When the parameter being measured can
only take on certain values
Example Discrete Distribution
A manufacturing process products
thousands of semiconductor chips per day.
On the average, 1 % of these chips do not
conform to specifications.
Every hour, an inspector selects a random
sample of 25 chips and classifies each chip
in the sample as conforming or
nonconforming.
If we let x be the random variable
representing the number of
nonconforming chips in the sample, the
probability distribution of x is
Solution
p(x) = (0.01)
x
(0.99)
25-x

X=1,2,3..25
Where = 25!/[x!(25-x)!]

P(X1)=P(X=0)+P(X=1)
= P(0) + P(1)
=

=
= 0.778+0.1964=0.9742
25
X
1

X=0
25
X
(0.01)
x
(0.99)
25-x
25
X
(0.99)
25
(0.01)
0
+ (0.99)
24
(0.01)
1

25!
0!25!
25!
1!24!
Example Continuous Distribution
Suppose that is x a random variable
that represents the actual contents
in ounces of a 1 lb bag of coffee
beans. The probability distribution of
x is assumed to be
f(x) = 1/1.5 15.5x 17.0
The probability of a bag containing
less than 16.0 oz is

Solution





p{x16.0}=
= f(x)dx
= f 1/1.5 dx
= x/1.5
= (16.00-15.5)/1.5
= 0.3333
15.5 16.0 16.5 17.0
f(x)
x
1/15
16.0

15.5
16.0

15.5
16.0

15.5
Mean, Variance, Standard
Deviation
Hypergeometric Distribution
p(x) =
D N-D
X n-x
N
n
X=1,2,,min(n,D)
nD
=
N

2
=
nD
N
1-
nD
N
N-n
N-1
The hypergeometric probability distribution
The mean and variance of the distribution are
Hypergeometric Distribution
Appropriate probability model for
selecting a random sample of n items
without replacement
from a lot of N items
of which D are nonconforming or
defective
x usually represents the number of
nonconforming items found in the
sample
Example
a lot contains 100 items,
5 of which do not conforms
requirement
If 10 items are selected at random
without replacement,
then the probability of finding one or
fewer nonconforming items in the
sample is
N
D
n-x
x
Solution
p(x) =
5 95
0 10
100
10
5 95
1 9
100
10
+
= 0.92314
Binomial Distribution
p(x) = P
x
1-p
n-x
n
x
X=1,2,,n
np =

2
= np(1-p)
The mean and variance of the distribution are
When the outcome of each trial is either a success or a failure.
The binomial distribution with parameters n0 and 0<p<1 is
Where p represent the fraction of defective or nonconforming items
in the population.

And x represents the number of nonconforming items found in
random sample of n items.
Example
If p = 0.10 and n=15, then the probability
of obtaining x nonconforming items is
computed as follow :
x P(X=x) x P(X=x)
0 0.205891 6 0.001939
1 0.343152 7 0.000277
2 0.266896 8 0.000031
3 0.128505 9 0.000003
4 0.042835 10 0.000000
5 0.010471
Poisson Distribution
=

2
=
A model of the number of defects or nonconformities that occur
in a unit of product.
The Poisson distribution is
p(x) =
-

x
X=0,1,.
x!
Where the parameter >0. The mean and variance of the
poisson distribution are :
Poisson Distribution
Application of the Poisson distribution
in quality control is a model of the
number defects or nonconformities
that occur in a unit product.

In fact, any random phenomenon
that occurs on a per unit (or per unit
area, per unit volume, per unit time)
Example
Suppose that the number of wire-bonding defects per unit
that occur in semiconductor device is Poisson distributed
with parameter =4.
Then the probability that randomly selected semiconductor
device will contain two or fewer wire bonding defects is

p(x2) =

-4

x
x!
2

X=0
= 0.018316+0.073263+0.146525
= 0.238104
Question
A mechatronic assembly is subjected to a final
functional test. Suppose that defects occur at
random in these assemblies, and that defects
occur according to a Poisson distribution with
parameter =0.02
(a) What is the probability that an assembly will
have exactly one defect?
(b) What is the probability that an assembly will
have one ar more defects?
Suppose that you improve the process so that
occurrence rate of defects is cut in half to
=0.01. What effect doe this have on the
probability that an assembly will have one or
more defects?