11.

5 Probability with the

Fundamental Counting Principles,
Permutations and Combinations
Three Kinds of Probability

Theoretical Probability
Empirical Probability
Subjective Probability

Probability with FCP (Problem # 1)
A restaurant offers 3
appetizers (salad, soup,
breadsticks), 4 main courses
(chicken, beef, fish, pork)
and 2 desserts (cake and ice
cream). What is the
probability of getting a
soup, chicken and ice cream
for a meal?
1/24
Probability with FCP (Problem # 2)
Mr. P has 4 ties
(Cartoon character,
Navy Blue, Black,
Striped), 4 shirts (white,
blue, black and gray)
and 4 pairs of pants
(black, brown, beige
and gray). What is the
probability that he will
wear a black tie, black
shirt and black pants?
1/64


Probability of a Permutation


Number of ways the permutation can occur
Total number of permutations
Probability with Permutations
(Problem # 3)
Jay-Z, Jeremih, R. Kelly
and T.I. were invited to
the 50
th
celebration at
Seton. They arrived
randomly and each
person arrived at
different time.
In how many ways can
they arrive?
In how many ways can
Jay-Z arrive first and T.I.
last?
What is the probability
that Jay-Z arrive first
and T.I. last?
Answer:
a. Total Permutation: 4! = 24

b. No. of permutations for
Jay Z to arrive first and T.I.
last = 1 x 2 x 1 x 1 = 2

c. Probability = 2/24 = 1/12


Probability with Permutations
(Problem # 4)
Suppose that you want to
arrange the 4 Twilight
books.
a. What is the probability
that Breaking Dawn (the
last book in the series) is
placed at the end?
b. What is the probability
that Twilight (the first
book in the series) is
placed first and New
moon (the second in the
series) placed second?
A. 6/24 or
B. 2/24 or 1/12


Probability with Permutations
(Problem # 5)
Miley Cyrus, Taylor
Swift, Demi Lovato,
Lady GaGa and Kelly
Clarkson agree to hold a
concert. What is the
probability that Lady
GaGa will perform first
and Kelly Clarkson last?
6/120 = 1/20


Probability of a combination


Number of ways the combinations can occur
Total number of combinations


Probability with Combinations
(Problem # 6)
A poker hand consists of
five cards.
a. Find the total number
of 5-card poker hands.
b. A heart flush is a 5-
card hand that consists of
all hearts. Find the
number of possible heart
flush.
c. Find the probability of
being dealt a heart flush?
A. Total Combination:
2,598,960

B. Possible Combination
for heart flush: 1287

C. Probability:
1287/2,598,960
Probability with Combinations
(Problem # 7)
To play the Powerball, a
player needs to select five
numbers from 1-59 and a
powerball number from
1-39.
a. What is the chance of
winning the top prize if
you buy one ticket?
b. What is the chance of
winning the top prize if
the cost for one ticket is
$1 and you spent $100?
A. 1/195,249,054
B. 50/97,624,527


Probability with Combinations
(Problem # 8)
To play the DC Lotto Hot
Sizzler, a player must
select 5 numbers from
1-39 and 1 number
from 1-19. What is the
probability of winning
the top prize if you only
purchased one ticket?
100 tickets? 1000
tickets? 10,000 tickets?
One ticket:
1/10,939,383

1000 tickets:
1000/10,939,383

10,000 tickets:
10,000/10,939,383
Probability with Combinations
(Problem # 9)
A group consists of 6 men
and 10 women. Four
members are selected at
random to attend a
conference. Find the
probability that the
selected group consists of
A. All men
B. All women
C. 2 men and 2 women
A. 3/364
B. 3/26
C. 135/364

Probability with Combinations
(Problem # 10)
A box contains 20 IPods,
where 5 of them are
defective. If 5 are
selected at a random,
find the probability that
A. All are defective
B. None are defective
A. 1/15504
B. 1001/5168