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This document summarizes a presentation about the Segway Human Transporter. It describes Segway as a motor-scooter like device powered by electric motors that moves based on the rider shifting their weight. The presentation analyzes Segway's strategic position using frameworks like crossing the chasm and inside the tornado. It identifies stakeholders, critical issues, and provides a Bayesian network and sensitivity analysis assessing the likelihood Segway can enter the mass market. Recommendations are made to address regulatory hurdles and increase consumer value and adoption.
This document summarizes a presentation about the Segway Human Transporter. It describes Segway as a motor-scooter like device powered by electric motors that moves based on the rider shifting their weight. The presentation analyzes Segway's strategic position using frameworks like crossing the chasm and inside the tornado. It identifies stakeholders, critical issues, and provides a Bayesian network and sensitivity analysis assessing the likelihood Segway can enter the mass market. Recommendations are made to address regulatory hurdles and increase consumer value and adoption.
This document summarizes a presentation about the Segway Human Transporter. It describes Segway as a motor-scooter like device powered by electric motors that moves based on the rider shifting their weight. The presentation analyzes Segway's strategic position using frameworks like crossing the chasm and inside the tornado. It identifies stakeholders, critical issues, and provides a Bayesian network and sensitivity analysis assessing the likelihood Segway can enter the mass market. Recommendations are made to address regulatory hurdles and increase consumer value and adoption.
Management 266A Product Strategy in the Digital Economy Charles Chen Miro Curac Antonio Gomez Dwight Huang Len Tiso Segway Human Transporter Presentation Overview Introduction Strategic Assessment: Moore Framework Stakeholders Critical Issues Analysis Bayesian Network Analysis Strategic Implications and Recommendations Segway Human Transporter Introduction Motor-scooter like device Powered by electric motors Movement by shifting weight, turning wrist Turning radius of zero Designed by inventor Dean Kamen (150 patents) Segway Human Transporter 3 Product Models e series - Expeditor (cargo) i series - Industrial (business) p series - Personal (consumer) Commercial models faster, longer range, heavier Max speed 10.0 - 12.5 mph Maximum distance 14 - 17 miles (single charge) Device weighs 69 - 95 lbs. Segway Human Transporter Strategic Assessment: Crossing the Chasm Segway in infancy stage of TALC Discontinuous innovation Substitute for walking Value proposition (business and consumer) Technology enthusiasts Amazon.com auction - $100,000 bids Visionaries Amazon.com - first customer Segway Human Transporter Strategic Assessment: In the Bowling Alley Whole product solutions to niche segments Pick on someone your own size Enlist the support of the economic buyer Government services Post office, police departments Businesses with warehouses Amazon.com, Michelin, GE Plastics Segway Human Transporter Strategic Assessment: Inside the Tornado Hypergrowth stage years away Consumers are ultimate target market Production capacity 40,000 units/month Need to lower price point from $3,000/unit Media coverage is a double edged sword Builds awareness Overhype sets unrealistic expectations (e.g. artificial intelligence industry) Segway Human Transporter Stakeholders Consumers Businesses Government Services Regulatory Authorities Environmental Interests Electric Industry Petroleum Industry Manufacturing Partners Segway Human Transporter Stakeholders: Consumers & Businesses Stakeholder Groups Parties Interests Consumers Individuals Urban commuters Local shoppers Recreational users Pleasure Increased mobility Social acceptance Businesses Warehouses Plants Manufacturing facilities Increased productivity Segway Human Transporter Stakeholders: Government and Regulation Stakeholder Groups Parties Interests Government Services Post office Police departments Park service Better public service Increased productivity Regulatory Authorities Federal, state and municipal authorities Department of Motor Vehicles Public safety Segway Human Transporter Stakeholders: Environmental and Electric Industries Stakeholder Groups Parties Interests Environmental Interests Environmental Protection Agency Environmental interest groups Environmental preservation Electric Industry Battery manufacturers Public utilities Electric vehicle manufacturers Market demand for electricity Technological advancement of electric products Segway Human Transporter Stakeholders: Petroleum and Manufacturing Stakeholder Groups Parties Interests Petroleum Industry Automobile, motorcycle and scooter manufacturers Petroleum exporters Market demand for petroleum products Manufacturing Partners Suppliers of Segway Corporate profitability Segway Human Transporter Critical Issues Analysis Highlight key issue for each area Political - Regulatory approval Behavioral - Consumer utility Economic - Segmentation Social - Fad or revolution? Technological - Segway imitators Segway Human Transporter Bayesian Network Segway Human Transporter Bayesian Network Analysis Base scenario Tornado viability = 12.10% Reasons for low percentage Harder to enter Tornado than Bowling Alley Regulatory hurdles Consumer value key Ability to supply Competitive threats
Segway Human Transporter Sensitivity Analysis: Primary Branch Nodes Market Demand Probability Viability Difference Base Scenario High Demand 20.81% 12.10% Sensitivity Analysis High Demand 100.00% 46.50% 34.40% Sensitivity Analysis High Demand 0.00% 3.06% -9.04% Ability to Supply Base Scenario Adequate Supply 56.60% 12.10% Sensitivity Analysis Adequate Supply 100.00% 16.27% 4.17% Sensitivity Analysis Adequate Supply 0.00% 6.67% -5.43% Competitive Threats Base Scenario Low Competition 46.51% 12.10% Sensitivity Analysis Low Competition 100.00% 16.58% 4.48% Sensitivity Analysis Low Competition 0.00% 8.20% -3.90% Segway Human Transporter Sensitivity Analysis: Regulatory Issues Regulatory Issues Probability Viability Difference Base Scenario - Favorable Regulations 26.74% 12.10% Sensitivity Analysis - Favorable Regulations 100.00% 20.12% 8.02% Sensitivity Analysis - Favorable Regulations 0.00% 9.17% -2.93% Federal Approval Base Scenario - Expedited Approval 95.00% 12.10% Sensitivity Analysis - Expedited Approval 100.00% 12.20% 0.10% Sensitivity Analysis - Expedited Approval 0.00% 10.23% -1.87% State Approval Base Scenario - Expedited Approval 60.00% 12.10% Sensitivity Analysis - Expedited Approval 100.00% 13.68% 1.58% Sensitivity Analysis - Expedited Approval 0.00% 9.73% -2.37% Municipal Approval Base Scenario - Expedited Approval 40.00% 12.10% Sensitivity Analysis - Expedited Approval 100.00% 15.88% 3.78% Sensitivity Analysis - Expedited Approval 0.00% 9.58% -2.52% Segway Human Transporter Sensitivity Analysis: Customer Value Customer Value Probability Viability Difference Base Scenario - High Customer Value 39.62% 12.10% Sensitivity Analysis High Customer Value 100.00% 19.64% 7.54% Sensitivity Analysis High Customer Value 0.00% 7.15% -4.95% Consumer Value Base Scenario - High Consumer Value 66.68% 12.10% Sensitivity Analysis High Consumer Value 100.00% 14.15% 2.05% Sensitivity Analysis High Consumer Value 0.00% 8.01% -4.09% Segway Human Transporter Sensitivity Analysis: Ability to Supply Distribution Channels Probability Viability Difference Base Scenario Sufficient Channels 60.00% 12.10% Sensitivity Analysis Sufficient Channels 100.00% 13.33% 1.23% Sensitivity Analysis Sufficient Channels 0.00% 10.25% -1.85% Production Capacity Base Scenario Adequate Capacity 68.36% 12.10% Sensitivity Analysis Adequate Capacity 100.00% 13.77% 1.67% Sensitivity Analysis Adequate Capacity 0.00% 8.48% -3.62% Segway Human Transporter Sensitivity Analysis: Competitive Threats Existing Transportation Probability Viability Difference Base Scenario - Effective Substitute 20.00% 12.10% Sensitivity Analysis - Effective Substitute 100.00% 11.30% -0.80% Sensitivity Analysis - Effective Substitute 0.00% 12.30% 0.20% Alternative Electric Transportation Base Scenario - High Threat 62.22% 12.10% Sensitivity Analysis - High Threat 100.00% 10.55% -1.55% Sensitivity Analysis - High Threat 0.00% 14.65% 2.55% Segway Human Transporter Market Valuation (all units in 000s) Comparable Industry: Motorcycle and Bicycle Manufacturing Tornado Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Unit Sales Price (000s) $3.0 $2.5 $2.0 $1.5 $1.0 $0.3 $0.3 % of Target Production 2% 10% 30% 40% 100% 500% 5000% Units Produced per Year (000s) 9.6 48 144 192 480 2,400 24,000 Revenue 28,800 $ 120,000 $ 288,000 $ 288,000 $ 480,000 $ 720,000 $ 7,200,000 $ COGS 19,987 $ 83,280 $ 199,872 $ 199,872 $ 333,120 $ 499,680 $ 4,996,800 $ Gross Margin 8,813 $ 36,720 $ 88,128 $ 88,128 $ 146,880 $ 220,320 $ 2,203,200 $ Operating Expenses 6,624 $ 27,600 $ 66,240 $ 66,240 $ 110,400 $ 165,600 $ 1,656,000 $ Operating Income/EBITDA 2,189 $ 9,120 $ 21,888 $ 21,888 $ 36,480 $ 54,720 $ 547,200 $ Depreciation/Amortization - $ 500 $ 1,100 $ 1,820 $ 2,684 $ 3,721 $ 4,965 $ EBIT 2,189 $ 8,620 $ 20,788 $ 20,068 $ 33,796 $ 50,999 $ 542,235 $ Interest Expense - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ EBT 2,189 $ 8,620 $ 20,788 $ 20,068 $ 33,796 $ 50,999 $ 542,235 $ Income Taxes 766 $ 3,017 $ 7,276 $ 7,024 $ 11,829 $ 17,850 $ 189,782 $ Net Income 1,423 $ 5,603 $ 13,512 $ 13,044 $ 21,967 $ 33,149 $ 352,453 $ Capital Expenditures 5,000 $ 6,000 $ 7,200 $ 8,640 $ 10,368 $ 12,442 $ 14,930 $ FCF (3,577) $ 103 $ 7,412 $ 6,224 $ 14,283 $ 24,429 $ 342,488 $ Discounted FCF (3,111) $ 78 $ 4,874 $ 3,559 $ 7,101 $ 10,561 $ 128,754 $ Preliminary Valuation $2,984,401 Segway Human Transporter Sensitivity Analysis - Expected Valuation Probability Expected Scenario of Viability Valuation ($M) Base case 12.10% 361 $ Hi Market Demand 46.50% 1,387 $ Lo Market Demand 3.06% 91 $ Adequate Ability to Supply 16.27% 485 $ Inadequate Ability to Supply 6.67% 199 $ Weak Competition 16.58% 494 $ Strong Competition 8.20% 245 $ Preliminary valuation = $2.98 billion Segway Human Transporter Strategic Implications and Recommendations Prioritize regulatory approval efforts Municipal approval is key Beta testing with government services
Consider international consumer market first Less automobile oriented urban infrastructure, but less Segway friendly infrastructure More receptive to cheaper transportation technology (higher customer value)
Segway Human Transporter Strategic Implications and Recommendations Continue expanding production capacity Hypergrowth demands rapid scalability
Continue conservative patent protection policy Barrier to entry in a new market Alternative electric transportation threat Segway Human Transporter The Future? Segway Human Transporter Segway Videos Link: http://www.segway.com/connect/multimedia.html