Binomial Trees

Chapter 11
1
2
A Simple Binomial Model

A stock price is currently $20
In 3 months it will be either $22 or $18
Stock Price = $18
Stock Price = $22

Stock price = $20
3
Stock Price = $18
Option Price = $0
Stock Price = $22
Option Price = $1
Stock price = $20
Option Price=?
A Call Option (Figure 11.1, page 238)
A 3-month call option on the stock has a strike
price of 21.

4
Consider the Portfolio: long D shares
short 1 call option







Portfolio is riskless if the value of D is chosen so that
the final value of portfolio is same for both the options
i.e., 22D 1 = 18D or D = 0.25
22D 1
18D
Setting Up a Riskless Portfolio
5
Valuing the Portfolio
(Risk-Free Rate is 12%)
The riskless portfolio is:
long 0.25 shares
short 1 call option
The value of the portfolio in 3 months is
22 0.25 1 = 4.50
The value of the portfolio today is
4.5e
0.120.25
= 4.3670
6
Valuing the Option
The portfolio that is
long 0.25 shares
short 1 option
is worth 4.367
The value of the shares is
5.000 (= 0.25 20 )
The value of the option(f) is therefore
5 f =4.367
f = 0.633 (= 5.000 4.367 )
7
Generalization (Figure 11.2, page
239)
A derivative lasts for time T and is
dependent on a stock
S
0
u

u
S
0
d

d
S
0


8
Generalization
(continued)
Consider the portfolio that is long D shares and
short 1 derivative





The portfolio is riskless when S
0
uD
u
= S
0
dD
d

or
d S u S
f
d u
0 0

D

S
0
uD
u
S
0
dD
d
Generalization
(continued)
Value of the portfolio at time T is
S
0
uD
u

Value of the portfolio today is
(S
0
uD
u
)e
rT

Another expression for the portfolio
value today is S
0
D f
Hence
= S
0
D (S
0
uD
u
)e
rT

9
10
Generalization
(continued)
Substituting for D we obtain
= [ p
u
+ (1 p)
d
]e
rT


where
p
e d
u d
rT

11
p as a Probability
It is natural to interpret p and 1-p as probabilities
of up and down movements
The value of a derivative is then its expected
payoff in a risk-neutral world discounted at the
risk-free rate
S
0
u

u
S
0
d

d
S
0


12
Risk-Neutral Valuation
When the probability of an up and down
movements are p and 1-p the expected stock price
at time T is S
0
e
rT
This shows that the stock price earns the risk-free
rate
Binomial trees illustrate the general result that to
value a derivative we can assume that the
expected return on the underlying asset is the risk-
free rate and discount at the risk-free rate
This is known as using risk-neutral valuation
13
Original Example Revisited





Since p is the probability that gives a return on the
stock equal to the risk-free rate. We can find it from
20e
0.12 0.25
= 22p + 18(1 p )
which gives p = 0.6523
Alternatively, we can use the formula
6523 . 0
9 . 0 1 . 1
9 . 0
0.25 0.12

e
d u
d e
p
rT
S
0
u = 22

u
= 1
S
0
d = 18

d
= 0
S
0


14
Valuing the Option Using Risk-
Neutral Valuation





The value of the option is
e
0.120.25
(0.65231 + 0.34770)
= 0.633
S
0
u = 22

u
= 1
S
0
d = 18

d
= 0
S
0


15
A Two-Step Example








Each time step is 3 months
K=21, r=12%
20
22
18
24.2
19.8
16.2
16
Valuing a Call Option
Figure 11.4, page 243







Value at node B is
e
0.120.25
(0.65233.2 + 0.34770) = 2.0257
Value at node A is
e
0.120.25
(0.65232.0257 + 0.34770) = 1.2823

20
1.2823
22
18
24.2
3.2
19.8
0.0
16.2
0.0
2.0257
0.0
A
B
C
D
E
F
17
A Put Option Example
Figure 11.7, page 246
K = 52, time step =1yr
r = 5%

50
4.1923
60
40
72
0
48
4
32
20
1.4147
9.4636
A
B
C
D
E
F
18
What Happens When an Option is American
(Figure 11.8, page 247)

50
5.0894
60
40
72
0
48
4
32
20
1.4147
12.0
A
B
C
D
E
F
19
Delta
Delta (D) is the ratio of the change in the
price of a stock option to the change in
the price of the underlying stock
The value of D varies from node to node
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives
7
th
Edition, Copyright John C. Hull
2008 20
Choosing u and d
One way of matching the volatility is to set



where s is the volatility and Dt is the length
of the time step. This is the approach used
by Cox, Ross, and Rubinstein
t
t
e u d
e u
D s
D s

1
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives
7
th
Edition, Copyright John C. Hull
2008 21
The Probability of an Up Move
contract futures a for
rate free - risk
foreign the is here currency w a for
index the on yield
dividend the is e index wher stock a for
stock paying d nondividen a for
1
) (
) (

D
D
D
a
r e a
q e a
e a
d u
d a
p
f
t r r
t q r
t r
f