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http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/10642724
http://www.hybridcenter.org
Why Hybrid Vehicles?
Emissions from vehicles is causing global warming
and human sickness.
Oil extraction peaked in the U.S. in the early
1970s.
Oil extraction is peaking for the world about now.
Natural gas extraction peaked in the U.S. in the
late 1970s.
Natural gas extraction for the world will peak
within a decade or two.
Hybrid vehicles produce much less emissions and
use about 50% less fuel than the average new
vehicle in the same class. (Partial-Zero emissions)
Plug-in Hybrid vehicles eventually will be charged
at parking locations using renewable energy. They
will use at least half as much fuel as do hybrids.
U.S. Oil Extraction
This fit to the data gives future reserves as ~1.5 times 2003 proven
reserves.
Alaska
increment
My
birth. It will mostly
be gone when
I am 100 years
old.
Alaska
extraction
peaked in
1988 about 10
years after it
started.
http://www.eia.gov
Natural Gas Facts
The main component is methane (CH4).
Natural Gas burns cleaner than gasoline or diesel.
(I used butane/propane @ $0.17/gallon in my
vehicle while in college 1954-8.)
Power companies prefer natural gas rather than
coal as a fuel because it is cleaner burning and
easier to transport by pipelines.
33% of U.S. energy comes from natural gas.
95% of nitrogen fertilizer used by U.S. farmers is
made from natural gas. Increasingly being
imported because of high prices for U.S. natural
gas.
“Natural gas” can be made from sewage and
extracted from land fills. Future power stations
need to be located at land fills and sewage plants
and/or where the heat generated can be used (co-
generation).
U.S. Natural Gas Extraction
This fit to the data gives future reserves as ~5 times 2003 proven
reserves.
About 15%
of
consumptio
n imported,
mostly
from
Canada.
Largest
reserves
are in
Russia, Iran
and Qatar.
http://www.durangobill.com/Rollover.html
from ExxonMobil
World Oil Extraction
5
World Petroleum Extraction Per Capita
4.5
4
(barrels/person/year)
3.5
2.5
1.5
0.5
0
1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
year
http://www.wtrg.com/oil_graphs/oilprice1947.gif
The fit is to the
data after Jan
2002.
http://www.eia.doe.gov
Daily prices:
A World economic
slump or collapse
will probably keep oil
prices from rising
this rapidly.
http://www.eia.doe.gov
Eventually the price of oil
will approach some
asymptote after only the
dregs are left to be
extracted from the Earth
and after humans quit
burning it and recycle it
instead.
The fit is to the
data after Jan
1999.
http://www.eia.doe.gov
Daily prices:
What about Using Ethanol and/or Biodiesel for
Fuel?
Farmers must use biofuels to
produce biofuels, not petrofuels!
www.khoslaventures.com/presentations/Biofuels_Dec2005.v3.2.ppt
=E85 or = E10
gasoline
Ethanol (Brazil) versus Gasoline
Prices
(1980->2002 $US/GigaJoule)
www.khoslaventures.com/presentations/Biofuels_Dec2005.v3.2.ppt
Ethanol in Brazil
Gasoline in
Rotterdam
Brazil sugar-cane/ethanol learning curve
Liters of ethanol produced per hectare between 1975 to 2004
www.khoslaventures.com/presentations/Biofuels_Dec2005.v3.2.ppt
1500
75
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
Fonte: Datagro
08 Nov 2005 Nastari / Datagro @ Proálcool 30 anos 11
Methanol Economy
New efficient ways to create methanol (&
dimethyl ether) from methane:
2CH4+O2->2CH3OH
Create methanol
Problem: from
Easier to CO2CO
capture
2
at at
power
power
plantsplant
and than
from air:millions of vehicles!
from
2CO2+4H2O->2CH3OH+3O2
Use methanol (dimethyl ether) as
replacements for gasoline (diesel) and in
fuel cells. 2CH3OH+3O2->2CO2+4H2O
Use methanol as replacement for
petroleum for hydrocarbon products.
Beyond Oil and Gas: The Methanol
Economy by Olah, Goeppert & Prakash.
Biodiesel Versus Diesel
Both are 15-20% more efficient fuels than gasoline.
Diesel emits more pollutants than gasoline because
each molecule has about 5 to 7 more methane units.
They can be eliminated by catalytic converters, as they
have been in German vehicles.
See http://www.whpubs.com/epa.pdf
Biodiesel:
Can be used in diesel engines.
Emits 50% less carbon monoxide and 78% less carbon
dioxide than diesel.
Contains no sulfur.
Emits 75% less particulates than diesel.
Emits more nitrous oxides (smog) than diesel, but they
can be removed by catalytic converters.
Ignites more readily in an engine but less readily in the
atmosphere than does diesel.
Biodiesel may be the transport fuel of the future.
See Biodiesel by Greg Pahl and
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biodiesel and
http://hybridiesel.blogspot.com/2005/02/good-discussion-about-potential-of.htm
Biodiesel from Algae
Over 50% of algae mass is oil. Over 30
times more oil per area than other fuel
plants (e.g. soybeans).
Both fresh-water and salt-water algae.
Most efficient photoreceptors of all plants.
Liquid environment allows better access to
carbon dioxide, nitrogen and minerals
needed for growth.
Arid zones are ideal because of high solar
exposure.
Locate beside power plants to absorb the
carbon dioxide produced.
Commercial bioreactors for producing oil
from algae are expected soon.
World Biodiesel Production
Curve is 73%
growth.
Growth is faster.
Decreasing
emissions
Decreasing Decreasing
emissions emissions
http://www.eroei.com/eval/net_energy_list.html
http://www.mnforsustain.org/nukpwr_tyner_g_net_energy_from_nuclear_power.htm
http://www.mnforsustain.org/nukpwr_tyner_g_net_energy_from_nuclear_power.ht
A linear fit to the world energy consumption to allow projection into
the future.
Since World population is projected to start leveling off, a constant
increase in energy use allows a modest increase in energy per capita.
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/edu/gwdebate/gwdebate.pdfWorld power
2004:
used in
http://www.ecotopia.com/apollo2 ~15,000,000 MegaWatts
= 15 TeraWatts
Wind and photovoltaic power would
have to grow at 70% per year to
supply all world power in about 10
Tehachapi Pass Wind Farm,
years!
Exponential Fit to World Wind Power
A 25% rate of growth would
make World wind power equal to
World total power by 2030.
As the Earth moves into the next
Major Ice Age within a few
thousand years, winds will
increase greatly, so much more
wind power will be available.
Exponential Fit to World Photovoltaic
Power
A 31% rate of growth would
make World photovoltaic power
equal to World total power by
2037.
As the Earth moves into the next
Major Ice Age within a few
thousand years, cloudiness will
decrease greatly, so more solar
power may be available even
though insolation will be smaller.
World Total Power and Photovoltaic
30
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
Wattsx10^15
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
We are like tenant farmers chopping
down the fence around our house for
fuel when we should be using nature's
inexhaustible sources of energy - sun,
wind and tide. I'd put my money on the
sun and solar energy. What a source of
power! I hope we don't have to wait
until oil and coal run out before we
tackle that.
-- Thomas Alva Edison (1847-1931)
2006 Federal Tax Credits for Home Solar Energy
Installations
Photovoltaic system or solar hot-water heater
(not for swimming pool or hot tub).
Federal tax credit equal to 30% of the systems'
cost, up to a credit of $2,000 per system.
Must be installed from Jan. 1, 2006 through Dec.
31, 2007.
A two-kilowatt photovoltaic system that meets
most of the needs of a highly energy-efficient
home should cost $16,000 to $20,000 installed.
A five-kilowatt photovoltaic system for a more
typical home should cost twice that; it would
eliminate the home’s electricity bills.
The “Bible”: The Solar Electric House by Steven J.
Strong and William G. Scheller, 1993.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/Savinganddebt/Savemoney/P126521.asp
Conservation as a Vehicle
“Fuel”
Using proven technologies to improve
vehicle efficiency can save half of
projected 2025 use of oil in the U.S.
The other half might be replaced by
biofuels and “saved” natural gas (more
efficient use of electricity).
A 2025 vehicle fleet as efficient as the
best hybrid vehicles now available would
save one-sixth of projected oil use.
See http://www.oilendgame.com and
Winning the Oil End Game by Amory
Lovins.
Global Warming next
Last Major Ice Age (120,000 years
long)
Last
Interglacial
Homo
sapiens
evolve
d in
Africa. Current
Interglacial
(more
about this
later)
Previous Glacial Maximum Glacial
Only Neanderthals
Europe in
Maximum
(10^3 Last Neanderthal in
years) Europe
• Until about ~10,000 years ago the earth was in a long ice
age for about 120,000 years, with several extreme
variations in temperature on a ~10,000 year time scale.
(There have been eight of these ice ages in the last one
million years.)
• Human beings evolved into “intelligent” animals due to
the extreme climate stresses.
• Why has it been so uniformly warm over the last
North-Pole Summer Insolation
Insolation = solar energy
striking the top of Earth’s
atmosphere.
It has been declining for
the last 11,000 years; so
why has the temperature
remained so high?
Normal
Interglaci Plunge into
al next ice
Age.
Modern
Global I call this
Warming “Neolithi
c global
warming
”.
Why is Global Warming
Bad?
Neolithi Future Global The fast rise in
c Global Warming temperature may
Warmin
g trigger the next major
Plung
Modern e into ice sooner than it
Global ice
would otherwise
Warmin Age.
g occur, due to
switching off Atlantic
Ocean currents.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=181#more-181
http://zfacts.com/p/49.html
Global Warming Turning off North Atlantic Ocean
Currents
In tropics warm water evaporates, leaving greater
salt concentration in the surface water.
Salty water travels north and becomes cooler.
At some point the salty cool surface water
becomes more dense than the water underneath
it, so it sinks rapidly.
When the northern ice caps melt by global
warming or otherwise, they supply fresh water into
the North Atlantic.
At some point the water ceases to be salty enough
to sink at a specific location.
The sinking of cold salty water is what drives the
North Atlantic Ocean Currents.
Atlantic Ocean Currents
• Brazilian coastline
These North Atlantic deflects most of the
surface Ocean
Currents are what South Equatorial
make Interglacials Current into the
warm. Notice that
there are several northern
components. hemisphere.
• Results in a large
transfer of heat from
the tropics into the
far northern
hemisphere.
• Note the several
different North
Atlantic Ocean
Currents.
• The Isthmus of
Panama keeps the
Atlantic Ocean
currents from going
into the Pacific
http://www.fiu.edu/~srimal/Currents_files/v3_document.htm
Can We Control Global Warming to Ameliorate Entry into the
Ice Age?
Controlled entry
into next ice age
by slowing the
Neolithi rate of burning
c Global fossil fuels and/or
Warmin storing the carbon
g dioxide to be
released later
more slowly.
This would give
more time for
developing the
infrastructure
needed for
humans to survive
• World population would be reduced either intentionally
in the next or
ice
otherwise. age.
• Can humans cooperate enough worldwide to peacefully
reduce population, control the rate of burning fossil fuels and
store carbon dioxide in the earth to be released at a
Last 1000 Years Earth Temperature
Data
Oil
Age
The rapid temperature increase is very similar to the rapid world population
increase.
Carbon dioxide increase behaves similarly.
Oceans contain unbalanced heat energy, which will cause atmospheric
2005 virtually tied
1998 as the warmest
year on record!
http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/recordtemp2005.html
http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/un/syreng/spm.pdf
Predictions for Next Two Major Ice
Ages
Current Interglacial Next Interglacial ~115,000 years from
now
Hybrids next