New Homework

Any HW#1 not turned in are now late

Section 2.1: 4, 8
Section 2.2: 12, 26
Section 2.3: 32, 41, 42
Section 2.4: 50, 66
Section 2.5: 78, 80


Due BEFORE class next Thur.

Will also be posted to the course web site

LESSON 3
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Notation: P(A | B) represents the conditional
probability of event A given that the event B has
occurred.
Example: monthly concrete production
Event A: two concrete plants (old & new),
Event B: two conditions (acceptable, unacceptable)
If a random sample is selected, what is the
probability that it is from the old plant?
If a sample that is found unacceptable is
selected, what is the probability that it is from the
old plant?
Conditional probability (contd.)
For any two events A & B, the conditional probability of A
given that B has occurred is:





Notice that:
P (A | B) P(A)
P (B | A) P(B)
P (A | B) P (B | A)


B P
B A P
B A P

|
We can see this from the Venn
Diagram


B P
B A P
B A P

|
S is replaced with B
Conditional probability (contd.)
Based on the definition of conditional probability, the
multiplication rule results (simple rearrangement):




A
1
, A
2
, , A
k
are mutually exclusive if no two have
any common outcomes

A
1
, A
2
, , A
k
are exhaustive if one A
i
must occur, so
A
1
A
2
A
k
= S
) ( ) | ( ) ( B P B A P B A P
LAW OF TOTAL PROBABILITY
Let A
1
, A
2
, , A
k
be mutually exclusive & exhaustive
events, then for any event B:

k
i
i i
A P A B P B P
1
) ( ) | ( ) (
BAYES THEOREM

k
i
i i
j j j
j
A P A B P
A P A B P
B P
B A P
B A P
1
) ( ) | (
) ( ) | (
) (
) (
) | (
P (A
i
) : prior probabilities
P (B | A
i
) : conditional probabilities
P (A
j
| B) : posterior probabilities

Diagnosis of Illness
A prime example is the diagnosis of illness (though it relates
to using any signs for evaluation)
Assume 1 in 200 adults is afflicted with a disease
A test is available, when an individual has the disease a
positive result will occur 99%
An individual without the disease will show positive 2% of
the time
If an individual shows positive, what is the probability they
are ill? (How many events?)
Let A = {individual has disease}, A = {individual does not}
B = {positive test result}
Probabilities? P(A), P(A), P(B|A), P(B|A)??
P(A) = .005 P(A) = .995
P(B|A) = .99 P(B|A) = .02
What do we want to find??
P(A|B)?
Diagnosis of Illness
Let A = {individual has disease}, A = {individual does not}
B = {positive test result}
P(A) = .005 P(A) = .995
P(B|A) = .99 P(B|A) = .02

P(A|B) = ?
= P(A B) / P(B) = (Bayes)
P(A B) = ?
= P(B | A) P(A) = .00495 (also Bayes rearranged)
P(B)= ?
=P(B|A) P(A) + P(B|A) P(A) (LTP)
= .00495 + .0199 = .02485

P(A|B) = P(A B) / P(B) = .00495 / .02485 = .199
INDEPENDENCE
Conditional probability allows us to revise prior
probabilities, P(A) , as new information is available
(event B occurred), & obtain new, more accurate
posterior probabilities, P(A|B). Occurrence of B tells us
something about A.
Two events A & B are independent if:
P (A | B) = P (A)

Question: what about P(B|A)?
If A & B are independent, so are (i) A & B, (ii) A & B,
& (iii) A & B.
Independence (contd.)
A & B two mutually exclusive events (example?). Are they
independent? Why?
If B occurs, then A cannot occur so:
P(A | B) = 0 P (A), so if two events are mutually
exclusive, they cannot be independent

Proposition: A & B are independent iff:


Proof: P(A B) = P(A|B) P(B) = P(A) P(B)
So whats the probability of flipping tails with a quarter and
rolling a 6 on a die?
) ( ) ( B P A P B A P
Extension: Independence of
more than two events
If A B and C are independent

P ( A B C) = P(A) P(B) P(C)

P(A B) = P(A) P(B)

P(B C) = P(B) P(C)

P(A C) = P(A) P(C)

Extension: Independence of
more than two events
Events A
1
, A
2
, , A
n
are mutually independent if for
every k (2, 3, , n) & every subset of indices
i
1
, i
2
, , i
k
, then



In words: the events are mutually independent if the
probability of the intersection of any subset of the n
events is equal to the product of the individual
probabilities.



k k
A P A P A A P
i i i 1
1 1

Component Failure
Consider the braking system on a very unsafe roller coaster
consisting of 4 components (A,B,C,D)

During each run, any number of components may fail
The components are grouped into two sub-systems
(A,B) and (C,D)
The system functions (i.e., youll live) as long as at least one
component in each sub-system works
All component failure is independent

The probability that the system will still work after one run?

Example
The system functions as long as at least (A or B) and (C or
D) work
Probability of failures:
P(A)=.1 P(B)=.2 P(C)=.05 P(D)=.3


Failure after one run:
(A and B fails) or (C and D fails)
P( (A B) (C D) ) =
P(A)*P(B) + P(C)*P(D) ?
P(A)*P(B) + P(C)*P(D) P(A)*P(B)*P(C)*P(D)
.02 + .015 - .003 = .0347