FINC4101
Investment Analysis
Instructor: Dr. Leng Ling
Topic: Bond Pricing and Yields
2
Learning objectives
1. Compute the price of a zerocoupon bond.
2. Compute the price of a fixed coupon bond.
3. Describe the priceyield relationship of bonds.
4. Distinguish between a bonds flat price and its invoice
price.
5. Compute different measures of bond returns.
6. Calculate how bond prices will change over time for a
given interest rate projection.
7. Recognize default/ credit risk as a source of risk for
bonds.
8. Identify the determinants of bond safety and rating.
9. Understand how default risk can affect yield to maturity.
3
Concept Map
Foreign
Exchange
Derivatives
Market
Efficiency
Fixed Income
Equity
Asset
Pricing
Portfolio
Theory
FI4000
4
Types of fixedincome securities
Fixedincome security / bond:
A security that obligates the issuer to
make specified payments to the holder
over a period of time.
We focus on the pricing of two types of
fixedincome securities:
1. Fixedcoupon bond (FCB)
2. Zerocoupon bond (ZCB)
5
Fixedcoupon bond (FCB) 1
Firm pays a fixed amount of interest (coupon payment)
to the investor every period until bond matures.
At maturity, firm pays face value of the bond to investor.
Face value also called par value. Unless otherwise
stated, always assume face value to be $1000.
Period: can be year, halfyear (6 months), quarter (3
months).
Coupon rate: annual coupon payment as a fraction of
face value.
6
How to read a
fixedcoupon bond: Example
A firm issues an 8% 30year bond with annual
coupon payments. Par value is $1,000.
What does the above tell us?
8%: the coupon rate.
Multiply coupon rate by par value to get annual coupon
payment. Coupon= 8% x 1,000 = $80.
Maturity = 30 years.
Coupon of $80 is paid annually, i.e., period=annual.
At maturity (end of 30 years), firm will pay $1000 to
investor.
What happens if coupon is paid semiannually?
Quarterly?
7
Fixedcoupon bond (FCB) 2
FCB gives you a stream of fixed payments plus
a single payment (face value) at maturity.
This cash flow stream is just an annuity plus a
single cash flow at maturity.
Therefore, we calculate the price of a FCB by
finding the PV of the annuity and the single
payment, using an appropriate interest rate.
We use the financial calculator to compute the
price of the FCB.
8
Fixedcoupon bond (FCB) 3
Reminder:
The interest rate used to find the PV of a
bond is also known as:
Yieldtomaturity (YTM or yield for short)
Discount rate
Required rate of return
Cost of debt
9
Fixedcoupon bond (FCB) 4
Price of the FCB, P
FCB
( ) ( )
N
d
N
t
t
d
FCB
r
F
r
C
P
+
+
+
=
=
1 1
1
Number of
periods to
maturity
Fixed periodic
coupon
Face value
Yield to maturity (in decimals)
10
Find FCB price
Consider an 8%, 30year coupon bond that pays
coupons semiannually. Compute the bonds
price if the yield to maturity is a) 6%, b) 8%, c)
10%.
If YTM = 6%, verify that bond price = $1,276.76
If YTM = 8%, verify that bond price = $1000.
If YTM = 10%, verify that bond price = $810.71
11
Inverse relationship between
price & interest rate
Notice that as YTM (interest rate)
increases, bond price decreases.
Conversely, as YTM decreases, bond
price increases.
This is the inverse relationship between
bond price and yield to maturity (interest
rate).
This is a crucial general rule in bond
pricing based on time value of money.
12
The Inverse Relationship Between
Bond Prices and Yields
Figure 10.1 Prices/Yields of U.S. Treasury Bonds
on Aug 15, 2011
13
Figure 2.3 Prices/Yields of U.S. Treasury Notes
page 32
14
Minimum tick size: of 1/32
Special case: of 1/32 =1/128
Bid: ( 112+30/32)% of face value
100:18.75 37/64+1/128
100:14 28/64=14/32
112:30 60/64=30/32
107:9.5 19/64=9.5/32
Treasury Bonds and Notes
Treasury Notes are issued with maturities
between 1 and 10 years.
Treasury bonds are issued with maturities
ranging from 10 to 30 years.
Domination: $100, $1000.
Both make semiannual coupon payments.
Bid and ask are quoted as a percentage of
par value.
15
16
Invoice price, Flat price,
Accrued interest
when you buy or sell a bond between coupon
payment dates, the invoice price must
incorporate accrued interest.
Invoice price = quoted price + Accrued interest
(price quoted in the financial press)
For a semiannual payment bond, accrued
interest between two coupon payment dates =
payments coupon separating days
payment coupon last ce days payment coupon annual sin
2
Example 10.1
Suppose the coupon rate is 8%, face
value is $1000 and coupon is paid
semiannually. 30 days have passed since
the last coupon payment. The quoted price
is $990. What is the invoice price?
990+(1000*8%/2)*(30/182)
=990+6.59
=996.59
17
Exercise
Suppose the coupon rate is 10%, face value is
$1000 and coupon is paid semiannually. 125
days have passed since the last coupon
payment. The Ask quote is 100:11. What is the
invoice price that the investor has to pay?
18
Price of a maturing 8% Treasury bond
What is the quoted price one day before the
maturity? $1000.
A purchaser will receive 1040 on the following
day.
So he should be willing to pay an invoice price of
$1040.
40 is the accrued interest since the previous
coupon payment.
19
Corporate Bonds Figure 10.2
20
21
Find YTM, Coupon rate
(suppose the bond is issued today)
1)A $1,000 par value bond sells for $863.05. It matures in
20 years, has a 10 percent coupon rate, and pays
interest semiannually. What is the bonds yield to
maturity on a per annum basis (to 2 decimal places)?
Verify that YTM = 11.80%
2) ABC Inc. just issued a twentyyear semiannual coupon
bond at a price of $787.39. The face value of the bond is
$1,000, and the YTM is 9%. What is the annual coupon
rate (in percent, to 2 decimal places)?
Verify that annual coupon rate = 6.69%
What happens if bond pays coupon annually? Quarterly?
22
Zerocoupon bond (ZCB) 1
Zero coupon rate, no coupon paid during bonds life.
Bond holder receives one payment at maturity, the face
value (usually $1000).
Price of a ZCB, P
ZCB
( )
N
ZCB
d
ZCB
r
F
P
+
=
1
F = face value of the bond
Yield to maturity (in decimals)
N = number of
periods to maturity
23
Zerocoupon bond (ZCB) 2
As long as interest rates are positive, the
price of a ZCB must be less than its face
value.
Why? With positive interest rates, the
present value of the face value (i.e., the
price) has to be less than the face value.
24
ZCB Problems
1) Find the price of a ZCB with 20 years to maturity,
par value of $1000 and a yield to maturity of 15%
p.a. Assume annual compounding.
N=20, I/Y=15, FV=1000, PMT=0. Price = $61.10
2) XYZ Corp.s ZCB has a market price of $ 354. The
bond has 16 years to maturity and its face value is
$1000. What is the yield to maturity for the ZCB.
Assume annual compounding.
PV=354, FV=1000, N=16, PMT=0.
YTM = 6.71% p.a.
What if semiannual compounding?
These problems are just basic TVM problems where you receive a
single cash flow in the future.
Treasury Bills (Tbills)
Chapter 2, page 27
Maturities: 4,13,26, 52 weeks.
Denomination: 100, 10000
Income from Tbill is taxable at the federal level, not
state or local level.
The cash flow pattern looks like a ZCB. Issued at a
discount from par value, return the par value at maturity.
The discount from the par (face) value is annualized
based on a 360day year and reported as a percentage
of face value.
25
Figure 2.1
26
% 0711 . 0 ) 245 / 365 ( :
% 0477 . 0 000477 . 0 : , 000477 . 1 236 . 995 , 9 / 000 , 10
215 . 994 , 9 $ %) 057847 . 0 1 ( 000 , 10 $ %, 057847 . 0 ) 360 / 245 ( % 085 . 0 :
236 . 995 , 9 $ %) 047639 . 0 1 ( 000 , 10 $ %, 047639 . 0 ) 360 / 245 ( % 07 . 0 :
=
= =
= =
= =
HPR R Annual
HPR
bid
ask
Figure 2.2 (8
th
edition)
27
01212996 . 0 ) 161 / 365 ( :
00535048 . 0 78 . 946 , 9 / ) 78 . 946 , 9 000 , 10 ( :
78 . 946 , 9 $ ) 00532194 . 0 1 ( 000 , 10 $ , 00532194 . 0 ) 360 / 161 ( 0119 . 0 :
33 . 946 , 9 $ ) 00536667 . 0 1 ( 000 , 10 $ , 00536667 . 0 ) 360 / 161 ( 0120 . 0 :
=
=
= =
= =
HPR R Annual
HPR
ask
bid
Example of Tbill
A Tbill with face value $10,000 and 87 days
to maturity is selling at a bank discount ask
yield of 3.4%, what is the price of the bill?
Bank discount of 87 days: 0.034 x
87 days
360 days
= 0.008217
Price: $10,000 x (1 0.008217) = $9,917.83
28
29
Measures of return
We measure the rate of return from
investing in a bond in several ways:
1. Yield to maturity (YTM)
2. Current yield (CY)
3. Yield to call (YTC)
4. Realized compound yield (RCY)
5. Holding period return (HPR)
30
Yield to maturity
The discount rate that makes the present value of
a bonds payments (coupons & par value) equal
to its price.
Interpretation: it is the compound rate of return
that will be earned over a bonds life if
It is bought now and held until maturity
All coupons are reinvested at the same YTM.
31
Annualizing YTM (1)
If coupons are paid semiannually, then the YTM
we get from the financial calculator is a six
month YTM.
We can convert this sixmonth YTM to an annual
YTM using
Simple interest => bond equivalent yield to maturity
(or bond equivalent yield for short)
OR
Compound interest => effective annual yield to
maturity (or effective annual yield for short)
32
Annualizing YTM (2)
In general, if a coupon bond pays coupons
m times a year, then:
Bond equivalent yield
= periodic YTM x m
Effective annual yield
= (1 + periodic YTM)
m
1
Note: periodic YTM is the value of I/Y you get from the financial calculator.
Stated in decimals
33
Annualizing YTM (3)
A 20year maturity bond with par value
$1000 makes semiannual coupon
payments at a coupon rate of 8%. Find
the bond equivalent and effective annual
yield to maturity of the bond if the bond
price is $950.
Verify that
Bond equivalent yield = 8.53%
Effective annual yield = 8.71%
34
Annualizing YTM (4)
Treasury bonds paying an 8% coupon rate
with semiannual payments currently sell
at par value. What coupon rate would they
have to pay in order to sell at par if they
paid their coupons annually ?
Practice 6 (1)
Chapter10:
4,5,6,14,15,17,22, 27
35
Homework 6
1. You are a US. Treasury bond dealer who trades a
4.75%, 3year, semiannual coupon bond. Your required
YTM is 0.92826126%. How should you quote your
Asked price in percentage of par value as shown in
Figure 10.1?
2. Suppose today is Oct 23, 2013. A bond with a 10%
coupon paid semiannually every Feb 15 and Aug15 is
listed as selling at an ask price of 102:11. if you buy the
bond from a dealer today, what price will you pay for it?
the coupon period has 182 days.
36
37
Bond price, coupon rate & YTM (1)
A $1,000 par value bond has coupon rate
of 5% and the coupon is paid semi
annually. The bond matures in 20 years
and has a yield to maturity of 10%.
Compute the current price of this bond.
FV=1000, PMT =25, I/Y=5, N=40. CPT, then PV.
PV = 571.02. Thus, price = $571.02 < par value
38
Bond price, coupon rate & YTM (2)
Go back to the bond in the last problem.
Suppose annual coupon rate = 10%.
Verify that price = $1000 = par value
Suppose annual coupon rate = 12%
Verify that price = $1,171.59 > par value.
It turns out that the following property is true.
39
Bond price, coupon rate & YTM (3)
Coupon rate < YTM Price < face value Bond is selling
at a discount
Coupon rate = YTM Price = face value Bond is selling
at par
Coupon rate > YTM Price > face value Bond is selling
at a premium
40
Apply what we learnt
A 10year annual coupon bond was issued four years
ago at par. Since then the bonds yield to maturity
decreased from 9% to 7%. Which of the following
statements is true about the current market price of the
bond?
A. The bond is selling at a discount
B. The bond is selling at par
C. The bond is selling at a premium
D. The bond is selling at book value
E. Insufficient information
41
Try one more
One year ago Pell Inc. sold 20year, $1,000 par value,
annual coupon bonds at a price of $931.54 per bond. At
that time the market rate (i.e., yield to maturity) was 9
percent. Today the market rate is 9.5 percent; therefore
the bonds are currently selling:
A. at a discount.
B. at a premium.
C. at par.
D. above the market price.
E. not enough information.
42
Current yield (1)
Annual coupon payment divided by bond
price.
Measures return from coupon payments.
Shortcomings:
Ignores capital gains or losses from bond sale.
Ignores income from reinvestment of coupon
payments.
43
Current yield (2)
Consider a 6%, 15year, semiannual
payment bond with a par value of $1000.
Compute the current yield if the yield to
maturity is: (a) 7%, (b) 6%, (c) 5%
Verify that
(a) Price = $908.0398, current yield = 6.61%
(b) Price = $1000, current yield = 6%
(c) Price = $1104.6515, current yield = 5.43%
44
Current yield (3)
If bond is selling at Coupon
rate (%)
Current
yield (%)
YTM (%)
Discount
Price = 908.0398
6 6.61 7
Par
Price = 1000
6 6 6
Premium
Price = 1104.6515
6 5.43 5
Observe that
45
In general, we have the following relationship
between coupon rate, current yield, & YTM
If bond is selling at Then we know that
Discount
(below par)
Coupon rate < Current yield < YTM
Par Coupon rate = Current yield = YTM
Premium
(above par)
Coupon rate > Current yield > YTM
46
Quick review
A bond has a current yield of 9% and a
yield to maturity of 10%. Is the bond
selling above or below par value?
Is the coupon rate of the bond more or
less than 9%?
47
Yield to call (1)
Applicable only to callable bonds.
Whats a callable bond?
Bond that may be repurchased by the issuer at a specified price
(call price) before the maturity date.
Call period: The period of time during which the issuer can
repurchase the bond.
Time until call: The period of time before the issuer can start
repurchasing the bond.
Motive: if interest rates fall, issuer can repurchase the
bonds and issue new bonds at lower coupon rate. This
lowers interest payments.
48
Yield to call (2)
Yield to call is calculated just like the yield to
maturity, except:
Time until call replaces time to maturity
Call price replaces par value
Yield to call
Time until call
Fixed periodic coupon
=
+
+
+
=
N
t
N
FC
t
FC
FCB
r
ice Call
r
C
P
1
) 1 (
Pr
) 1 (
49
Yield to call (3)
A 20year maturity bond with par value $1000 makes
semiannual coupon payments at a coupon rate of 8%.
The bond is currently selling for $1,150 and is callable in
10 years at a call price of $1,100.
Compute the bond equivalent yield to call and the
effective annual yield to call.
What is N? What is FV?
Verify that
Bond equivalent yield to call = 6.64%
Effective annual yield to call = 6.75%
50
Realized compound yield (1)
Compound rate of return based on coupon
payments, reinvestment income and sale
price during the holding period.
Realized compound yield depends on:
Reinvestment rate: interest rate at which
coupon payments are reinvested.
Holding period
YTM at the end of holding period
51
Realized Compound Yield (2)
Realized compound yield, y
Purchase price = what you paid for the bond
Final proceeds = future value of coupon payments and
reinvestment income + sale price
n = length of holding period (could be in years, half
years, quarters etc).
Length of holding period
1
1


.

\

=
n
price purchase
proceeds final
y
52
Realized Compound Yield (3)
Suppose you buy a 30year, 7.5%, annual
payment coupon bond for $980 and plan
to hold it for 20 years. Your forecast is that
the bonds YTM will be 8% when it is sold
and that the reinvestment rate on the
coupons will be 6%. Compute the annual
realized compound yield.
53
Realized Compound Yield (4)
Five years ago, XYZ Inc issued a 5% semiannual
payment coupon bond with a maturity of ten years. You
buy the bond now at a price of $683.94 and plan to hold
it for three years. You forecast that you can invest the
coupon payments at a stated annual rate of 6.25% and
that at the end of three years, the yield will be 7.75%.
What is the bond equivalent realized compound yield?
(i.e., annualize using simple interest)
What is the effective annual realized compound yield?
(i.e., annualize using compound interest)
54
Yield to Maturity vs.
Realized Compound Yield (1)
Consider a 7% annual payment bond with two
years to maturity. The YTM is 8% right now.
Compute the realized compound yield if the
reinvestment rate is (a) 7%, (b) 8%, (c) 9%.
Verify that the realized compound yield is:
a) 7.97% < YTM
b) 8% = YTM
c) 8.03% > YTM
55
Yield to Maturity vs.
Realized Compound Yield (2)
In general, if you hold a bond to maturity,
then:
RCY < YTM if reinvestment rate < YTM
RCY = YTM if reinvestment rate = YTM
RCY > YTM if reinvestment rate > YTM
56
Holding period return (HPR)
Rate of return over a single investment (holding)
period. Has two components:
Price change = ending price beginning price
Coupon payment
Price change + Coupon payment
Beginning price
Ending price  Beginning price + Coupon payment
Beginning price
HPR
=
=
57
HPR problem
Suppose you buy a bond of General Electric at a
price of $990. The bond pays coupons semi
annually, has an annual coupon rate of 6%, a
face value of $1,000 and will mature in six
months time. You intend to hold the bond till it
matures.
What is the 6month HPR?
58
HPR vs. YTM (1)
When the YTM stays the same during the
holding period, HPR = YTM.
If the YTM changes after you bought the
bond, then HPR will be different from the
initial YTM.
If YTM falls after you bought the bond,
HPR > initial YTM.
If YTM rises after you bought the bond,
HPR < initial YTM.
* This property is true only if the end of the holding period is NOT
the maturity date.
59
HPR vs. YTM (2)
Consider a 30year bond paying an annual
coupon of $80 and selling at $1000. The bonds
initial YTM is 8%. Suppose you buy the bond
now and hold it for one year. Compute the 1
year HPR if YTM at the end of the year is
(a) 8%, (b) 7%, (c) 9%.
Verify that:
a) If yearend YTM is 8%, then HPR = 8%
b) If yearend YTM is 7%, then HPR = 20.28%
c) If yearend YTM is 9%, then HPR = 2.2%
60
Bond prices over time
Suppose the yield to maturity is the same from the time
you purchased a bond to the bonds maturity.
If you bought the
bond at .
Bond price over time
Premium Price falls and approaches par value.
Par Price remains at par value till maturity.
Discount Price rises and approaches par value.
61
Figure 9.6 Premium and Discount
Bonds over Time
62
Quick review (1)
Consider a bond with a 10% coupon rate and
with YTM of 8%. If the bonds YTM remains
constant, then in one year, will the bond price
be
a) Higher
b) Lower
c) Unchanged
d) None of the above
63
Quick review (2)
Which of the following statements is correct?
a) If market rates do not change, the price of a bond selling
at a premium increases over time.
b) If interest rates are greater than zero, it is possible for a
zerocoupon bond to sell at a premium (i.e. for more than
par value).
c) If a bonds yield to maturity is greater than its coupon rate,
the bond will sell at a discount.
d) If market rates do not change, the price of a bond selling
at a discount decreases over time.
e) All of the above statements are false.
64
Default risk
What is default?
Failure of the bond issuer to make the promised
coupon &/or par value payments to the bond holder.
Default risk
To the bond holder, default risk is the uncertainty in
cash flows arising from the possibility that the issuer
can fail to make promised payments.
With the exception of the U.S. government, all issuers
have default risk.
Some issuers have greater default risk than others.
65
Measuring default risk
Credit rating agencies measure default risk of:
Large corporate bond issues
Municipal bond issues
International sovereign bond issues
Wellknown credit rating agencies:
Moodys
Standard & Poors (S&P for short)
Duff & Phelps
Fitch
Each agency assigns a letter grade to reflect
level of default risk.
66
S&P, Moodys credit rating scheme
67
Investment vs. speculative grade
Bonds fall into one of the two broad groups:
Investment grade bond:
Rated BBB and above by S&P, or
Rated Baa and above by Moodys
Speculative grade or junk bond:
Rated BB or lower by S&P, or
Rated Ba or lower by Moodys or
Unrated bond
68
Determinants of credit rating
To assign rating, credit rating agencies
look at level and trend of issuers financial
ratios.
Key ratios:
1. Coverage: timesinterestearned
2. Leverage: debttoequity, debttoassets
3. Liquidity: current, quick
4. Profitability: ROA
5. Cash flowtodebt
69
Protection Against Default
Credit Default Swap (CDS)
An insurance policy on the default risk of a corporate
bond. CDS buyers pay the sellers an annual premium (a
percentage of each $100 of bond principal). The sellers
compensate the buyers for loss of bond value in the event
of a default.
Bond indenture specifies restrictions on
issuer to protect bondholder against
default.
Sinking fund; Subordination of further debt;
Dividend restrictions; Collateral
70
Yield to Maturity and Default Risk (1)
Promised/stated YTM:
YTM you get if issuer makes all promised payments.
Maximum possible YTM.
Expected YTM:
YTM you get if you consider the possibility of default.
Consider the following example.
71
Yield to Maturity and Default Risk (2)
A firm issued a 9% semiannual payment coupon bond
20 years ago. The bond now has 10 years left until its
maturity date, but the firm is having financial difficulties.
Investors believe that the firm will be able to make good
on the remaining interest payments but that at the
maturity date, the firm will be forced into bankruptcy, and
bondholders will receive only 70% of par value. The
bond is selling at $750.
Calculate the promised (bond equivalent) YTM and the
expected (bond equivalent) YTM.
Verify that the promised YTM is 13.7% and the expected
YTM is 11.6%.
72
Summary
1. Compute the price of (a) fixedcoupon bond, b) zerocoupon bond.
2. Bond price is inversely related to interest rates.
3. Different measures of bond returns:
a) yield to maturity,
b) current yield,
c) yield to call,
d) realized compound yield,
e) holding period return.
4. Relationships between different measures of bond returns.
5. Evolution of bond prices over time if YTM remains the same.
6. Credit/ default risk as a source of risk in bond investing.
7. Determinants of bond safety and rating.
Practice 6 (2)
Chapter10: 7,8,9,12,16,23,28,32.
73