Perencanaan dan Pengendalian Produksi

Peramalan Permintaan
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
147
1
0
1
3
1
6
1
9
2
2
2
5
2
8
3
1
3
4
3
7
4
0
Series1
Series2
Series3
Series4
2
Forecasting
The process of predicting the values of a
certain quantity, Q, over a certain time
horizon, T, based on past trends and/or a
number of relevant factors.
An estimate of future demand & provides
the basis for planning decisions
Goal is to minimize forecast error
Forecast error: difference between
forecast and actual demand


3
Demand
Observed demand (O)=Systematic component
(S) + Random component (R)
Systematic component: Expected value of demand
Random component: The part of the forecast that deviate
from the systematic component
Demand forecasting is based on:
extrapolating to the future past trends observed in the
company sales;
understanding the impact of various factors on the
company future sales:
market data
strategic plans of the company
technology trends
social/economic/political factors
environmental factors
etc

4
Sistem Peramalan
Data Historis
Tujuan
model
Forecast
(Prediction)
Feedback on
forecast
accuracy
Data checked for
accuracy and
reasonableness
Update sesuai
kebutuhan
Knowledge of
changed
condition
Pembandingan
dengan kondisi
aktual
5
Forecasting Techniques
Qualitative forecasting is based on opinion &
intuition.

Quantitative forecasting uses mathematical
models & historical data to make forecasts.
Time series models are the most frequently used
among all the quantitative forecasting models.
6
Forecasting Techniques (Cont.)
Qualitative Forecasting Methods
Used when data are limited, unavailable, or not
currently relevant. Incorporate factors like the
forecasters intuition, emotions, personal
experience, and value system.

Four qualitative models used are:
1. Jury of executive opinion
2. Delphi method
3. Sales force composite
4. Consumer survey
7
Forecasting Techniques (Cont.)
Quantitative Methods
Time series forecasting- based on the assumption that the
future is an extension of the past. Historical data is used to
predict future demand.
Cause & Effect forecasting- assumes that one or more
factors (independent variables) predict future demand.
It is generally recommended to use a combination of
quantitative & qualitative techniques.
8
Forecasting Techniques (Cont.)
Penggunaan model kuantitatif membutuhkan:
Data kondisi masa lalu
Data tersebut dapat dikuantifisir
Diasumsikan pola data masa lalu akan berlanjut pada
masa yang akan datang

Data yang digunakan untuk keperluan
perencanaan produksi:
Paling baik menggunakan data permintaan
Menggunakan data jumlah unit penjualan
Kalalu tidak dimiliki data penjualan gunakan data jumlah
unit produksi

9
Forecasting Techniques (Cont.)
Components of Time Series
Data should be plotted to detect:
Trend variations: increasing or decreasing
Cyclical variations: wavelike movements that are longer than a
year (e.g., business cycle)
Seasonal variations: show peaks & valleys that repeat over a
consistent interval such as hours, days, weeks, months, years,
or seasons
Random variations: due to unexpected or unpredictable
events
10
Forecasting Techniques (Cont.)
Causal Models -
External variables are identified that are related to
demand
Simple regression. Only one explanatory variable is used
& is similar to the linear trend model. The difference is
that the x variable is no longer time but an explanatory
variable.
= b
0
+ b
1
x
where
= forecast or dependent variable
x = explanatory or independent variable
b
0
= intercept of the line
b
1
= slope of the line
11
Forecasting Techniques (Cont.)
Cause & Effect Models (Cont.)
Multiple regression. Several explanatory variables are
used to make the forecast.
= b
0
+ b
1
x
1
+ b
2
x
2
+ . . . b
k
x
k

where
= dependent variable
x
k
= kth explanatory variable
b
0
= intercept of the line
b
k
= regression coefficient of the
independent variable x
k

12
Implementing Quantitative Forecasting
Determine Method
Time Series
Causal Model
Collect data:
<Ind.Vars; Obs. Dem.>
Fit an analytical model
to the data:
F(t+1) = f(X1, X2,)
Use the model for
forecasting future
demand
Monitor error:
e(t+1) = D(t+1)-F(t+1)
Model
Valid?
Update Model
Parameters
Yes
No
- Determine
functional form
- Estimate parameters
- Validate
13
Prosedur Peramalan
Plot data permintaan vs. waktu

Pilih beberapa metoda peramalan

Evaluasi kesalahan peramalan

Pilih metoda peramalan dengan kesalahan
peramalan terkecil

Verifikasi

Intepretasi hasil peramalan
14
Pola Data
15
Components of Time Series
Data should be plotted to detect:
Trend variations: increasing or decreasing
Cyclical variations: wavelike movements that
are longer than a year (e.g., business cycle)
Seasonal variations: show peaks & valleys that
repeat over a consistent interval such as
hours, days, weeks, months, years, or seasons
Random variations: due to unexpected or
unpredictable events
16
Contoh Teknik Peramalan

Konstan


Regresi linier








Siklis

b
N t dt dt t
N
t
n
a
dt
N
b t
N
dt b t
t
n
t
n
t
n
t
n
t
n
t
n
t
t
=

=
= =
= = =
=
= =



.
.
( )
1 1 1
2
1
2
1 1
1
^ ^ ^
( )
D a a
d
t
n
t
t
n
= =
=

1
^
( ) cos
D
t a u
t
N
v = + + sin
2 t
N
2t t
^ ^
( ) D t a bt = +
17
Kriteria Performansi Peramalan
Mean Square Error (MSE)




dimana:
dt = data aktual pada periode t
Dt = nilai ramalan pada periode t
n = banyaknya periode

MSE
t t
t
n
n
d D
=
=

2
1
(
'
)
18
Kriteria Performansi Peramalan
Standard error of estimate (SEE)




dimana:
f = derajat kebebasan
1 : untuk data konstan
2 : untuk data linier
3 : untuk data kuadratis

SEE
t t
n f
d D
t
n
=

=
2
1
(
'
)
( )
19
Kriteria Performansi Peramalan
Persentase Kesalahan




Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)
t
t t
t
PE
d D
d
x =

( ) %
'
100
MAPE
n
t
t
n
PE
=
=

1
20
Contoh
Dari data 12 bulan terakhir tercata penjualan produk X:


Gambar diagram Pencar:

t

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

dt

140

159

136

157

173

181

177

188

154

179

180

160

21
Metoda Konstan
t dt dt' e = dt - dt'
e
2

SEE
1 140 165.33 -25.33 641.61
2 159 165.33 -6.33 40.07
3 136 165.33 -29.33 860.25
4 157 165.33 -8.33 69.39
5 173 165.33 7.67 58.83
6 181 165.33 15.67 245.55
7 177 165.33 11.67 136.19
8 188 165.33 22.67 513.93
9 154 165.33 -11.33 128.37
10 179 165.33 13.67 186.87
11 180 165.33 14.67 215.21
12 160 165.33 -5.33 28.41
3124.68 17

22
Metoda Konstan
a
N
t
t
n
t
d
d
=
=

1
'
SEE
n f
dt dt
t
n
=

=
= ~

=
2
1
3124 68
12 1
3124 68
11
16 85 17
( ')
.
.
.
165.33 a =
23
Metoda Linier
t dt t . dt
t
2

dt'=156+1.t e = dt - dt'
e
2

1 140 140 1 157 -17 289
2 159 318 4 158 1 1
3 136 408 9 159 -23 529
4 157 628 16 160 -3 9
5 173 865 25 161 12 144
6 181 1086 36 162 19 361
7 177 1239 49 163 14 196
8 188 1504 64 164 24 576
9 154 1386 81 165 -11 121
10 179 1790 100 166 13 169
11 180 1980 121 167 13 169
12 160 1920 144 168 -8 64
78
1984 13264 647 2628
t 6.5 dt 165.33

24
Metoda Linier
b
N t dt dt t
N
t
n
a
dt
N
b t
N
dt b t
t
n
t
n
t
n
t
n
t
n
t
n
t
t
=

=
= =
= = =
=
= =



.
.
( )
1 1 1
2
1
2
1 1
1
b
a dt b t
dt t
=

=
= ~
=
= =
= ~
= +
12 13264 1984 78
12 647
157168 154752
7764 6084
2416
1680
1 44 1
165 33 1 44 6 5 165 33 9 35
155 98 156
156 1
2
78
( ) ( )( )
( )
.
.
. . ( . ) . .
.
'
( )
SEE
n f
dt dt
t
n
=

=
= ~

=
2
1
2628
12 2
2628
10
16 21 16
( ')
.
25
Metoda Kuadratis
t dt t.dt t2 t2.dt t4 dt' e=dt-
dt'
e2
-6 140 -840 36 5040 1296 118.36 21.64 468.29
-5 159 -795 25 3975 625 127.82 31.18 972.19
-4 136 -544 16 2176 256 143.88 -7.88 62.09
-3 157 -471 9 1413 81 146.74 10.26 105.27
-2 173 -346 4 692 16 147.6 23.4 547.56
-1 181 -181 1 181 1 152.46 28.54 814.53
1 177 177 1 171 1 156.86 20.14 405.62
2 188 376 4 752 16 158.4 29.6 876.16
3 154 462 9 1386 81 159.96 -5.96 35.52
4 179 716 16 2864 1256 161.48 17.52 306.95
5 180 900 25 4500 625 149.82 30.18 910.83
6 160 960 36 5760 1296 144.76 15.24 232.26
E
1984 404 182 28710 4550 5737.2
7

26
Metoda Kuadratis
b
t dt N dt
n
a
dt C
N
t
n
t
n
t
n
t
n
t
n
t
n
t
n
t
n
t
t t
t
t
t
=

=

=
=
= =
= =
= =

. .
( )
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
4
1
1
2
1
2
c=
dt
t=1
n
b
c
a
dt t
t
= = ~
=

= ~
=

=

=
= + +
404
182
2 22 2 2
1984 182 12 28910
12 4550
361088 346920
33124 54600
14168
21476
0 6597 0 66
1984 0 66 182
12
1984 120 12
12
155 32
155 32 2 2 0 66
2
2
182
. .
( )( ) ( )
( )
. .
. ( ) .
.
' . . .
( )
SEE =

=
= ~
5737 27
12 3
5737 27
9
25 25 25
.
.
.
27
Pemilihan Metoda Terbaik & Hasil Peramalan



Metode yang dipilih adalah metode peramalan
linier

Dt' = 156 + t

Konstan Linier Siklis
SEE 17 16 25

t 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Dt' 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180

28
Metoda Peramalan Lainnya
Moving average method
Simple moving average

Exponential smoothing
Simple exponential smoothing

Winters model
29
Simple Moving Average
Forecast F
t
is average of n previous
observations or actuals D
t
:







Note that the n past observations are equally
weighted.

+ =
+
+ +
=
+ + + =
t
n t i
i t
n t t t t
D
n
F
D D D
n
F
1
1
1 1 1
1
) (
1

30
Simple Moving Average
Include n most recent observations
Weight equally
Ignore older observations
weight
today
1 2
3
... n
1/n
31
Moving Average
Internet Unicycle Sales
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Apr-01 Sep-02 Jan-04 May-05 Oct-06 Feb-08 Jul-09 Nov-10 Apr-12 Aug-13
Month
U
n
i
t
s
n = 3
32
Contoh
Data penjualan PC (personal computer) selama lima
bulan terakhir adalah

Bulan (t) 1 2 3 4 5
Penjualan (D) 823 872 834 900 867
Berapa perkiraan jumlah penjualan PC untuk 3 bulan ke
depan ?
33
Moving average 3 bln
Asumsi actual demand bln 6 = 934 dan bln 7 = 854
Bulan (t) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Penjualan (D) 823 872 834 900 867 934 854
Peramalan (F) 843 869 867 900 885
Error (D-F)
2
3249 3 4489 2147
MSE 2471.9
34
Exponential Smoothing I
Include all past observations
Weight recent observations much more
heavily than very old observations:
weight
today
Decreasing weight given
to older observations
35
Exponential Smoothing: Math
1
) 1 (

+ =
t t t
F a aD F
| |

+ + + =
+ + + =


2 1
2
2
1
) 1 ( ) 1 (
) 1 ( ) 1 (
t t t t
t t t t
D a D D F
D D D F
o o o o
o o o o o
36
Exponential Smoothing: Math
Thus, new forecast is weighted sum of old forecast
and actual demand
Notes:
Only 2 values (D
t
and F
t-1
) are required, compared with
n for moving average
Parameter a determined empirically (whatever works
best)
Rule of thumb: o < 0.5
Typically, o = 0.2 or o = 0.3 work well
Forecast for k periods into future is:
1
(1 )
t t t
F aD a F

= +
t k t
F F =
+
37
Exponential Smoothing
Internet Unicycle Sales (1000's)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Jan-03 May-04 Sep-05 Feb-07 Jun-08 Nov-09 Mar-11 Aug-12
Month
U
n
i
t
s
o = 0.2
38
Contoh Exponential Smoothing
Time yt o=0.1 Error
1 71
2 70 71 -1
3 69 70.9 -1.9
4 68 70.71 -2.71
5 64 70.44 -6.44
6 65 69.8 -4.8
7 72 69.32 2.68
8 78 69.58 8.42
9 75 70.43 4.57
10 75 70.88 4.12
11 75 71.29 3.71
12 70 71.67 -1.67
39
Verifikasi Peramalan
Dilakukan untuk memverifikasi apakah fungsi
peramalan yang digunakan mewakili pola data
yang ada.
Metoda verifikasi: moving range chart

Moving Range

Average moving range

Control limits
( ) ( )
1
'
1
'
d d d d
MR
t t t t
=

=
1 n
MR
MR
MR LCL
MR UCL
66 . 2
66 . 2
=
+ =
40
Verifikasi Peramalan
Pengujian Out of control
Dari 3 titik yang berurutan, 2
titik atau lebih di Daerah A
Dari 5 titik yang berurutan, 4
titik atau lebih di Daerah B
Dari 8 titik yang berurutan
seluruhnya berada atau di
bawah center line
Satu titik di luar batas kontrol
Bila kondisi out-of-control
terjadi, tindakan yang bisa
diambil :
Perbaiki ramalan dengan
mencakup data baru (sistem
sebab baru)
Tunggu evidence selanjutnya
center line
UCL
LCL
r
e
g
i
o
n

A
r
e
g
i
o
n

B
r
e
g
i
o
n

C
r
e
g
i
o
n

A
r
e
g
i
o
n

B
r
e
g
i
o
n

C
41
Contoh Verifikasi (1)
Dt' = 156 + t
t Dt Dt' Dt'- Dt MR
1 140 156 16
2 159 157 -2 18
3 136 158 22 24
4 157 159 2 20
5 173 160 -13 15
6 181 161 -20 7
7 177 162 -15 5
8 188 163 -25 10
9 154 164 10 15
10 179 165 -14 24
11 180 166 -14 0
12 160 167 7 21
159
45 . 38
45 . 38
45 . 14
11
159
=
=
= =
LCL
UCL
MR
42
Contoh Verifikasi (2)
38.45
25.63
12.82
-38.45
-12.82
-25.63