Wednesday Group Presentation

October 29, 2014

Voters pessimistic about direction of country
33
36
29
26
33
28
16
15
19
29
34
33
32
36
32
39 39
40
42
32
28 28
17
30
27
26
27
58
56
59
65
58
61
75
76
69
65
59
59
60
58
62
55 55 55
52
59
64
65
76
62
65
69
64
Right Direction Wrong Track
2010
Election
2012
Election
2
2012
2014
Generally speaking, do you think that things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things
have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?
*Note: From Democracy Corps national surveys conducted in the past 4 years..
23
15
10
30 31
42
38
20
55
52
46 46
10
27 28
54
56
20
39
40
Strongly approve Approve Strongly disapprove Disapprove
Likely voters
3
Unmarried
women
Independents RAE Seniors
Obama approval modest among key groups
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
Barack Obama
-12 -18 -- +16 +12
*Note: National Survey of 950 2012 voters including 698 likely 2014 voters nationwide was conducted from October 16-21, 2014
None in DC popular
49
53
56
51 51
54
51 51
48
50
51
50 50
51
52
50
52
55
53
54 54
55
51
51
49
50
49
46
45
47
49
48
46
47
46
45
43
46
46 46 46
47 47
45
48
49
49
50 50
48
48
46
47
46
45
43
47 48
49
45
46
46
45
44
42 42
43
41
43
45
43
43
45
43
44
45
45
41
43
42
40
40
39
41
44
46
50
46
46
45
44
42
39
39
40
39
41
43
40
39
41
39
39
41
42
39
42
40
39
38
35
37
11/2/2010 3/20/2011 6/21/2011 11/20/2011 5/1/2012 8/27/2012 10/21/2012 1/14/2013 10/8/2013 10/22/2014
Barack Obama Democratic Party Republican Party Republican Congress
Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with 100 meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE
feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 50 meaning not particularly warm or cold.
*Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted in the past 4 years. Data represents MEAN ratings.
4
2010
Election
2012
Election
2012 2014
30
18
12
10
14
44
39
32
27
29
37
33
36
40
37
44
46
48
52
44
Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25)
Barack
Obama
5
Mean: 47.3
Net: 0
Mean: 44.7
Net: -7
Mean: 36.8
Net: -25
Mean: 41.1
Net: -16
Republican
Congress
Democratic
Party
Republican
Party
GOP brand more negative
Tea Party
Mean: 39.3
Net: -15
Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM,
FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold.
*Note: National Survey of 950 2012 voters including 698 likely 2014 voters nationwide was conducted from October 16-21, 2014
55
41
37
34
27
26
17
14
12
11
Their position on the economy, creating jobs, and
improving wages
Their position on women and women's issues
Their position on Medicare and Social Security
Their position on the new health care law
Their position on foreign policy and ISIS
Their position on abortion and gay marriage
Their position on immigration
Their position on spending and deficits
Because of their political party
Because they support or oppose President Obama
6
Now I am going to read you a list of reasons people vote for one candidate over another. After I read this
list, tell me which THREE are the most important when deciding who to vote for in the election for U.S.
Senate.
Voting for Democrats because of economy, but also
because of position on womens issues
Voting for the Democrat
*Note: Senate Battleground survey conducted Sept. 20-24, 2014 among 1,000 likely 2014 voters
54
40
38
37
31
23
19
14
9
7
Their position on the economy, creating jobs, and
improving wages
Their position on foreign policy and ISIS
Their position on the new health care law
Their position on spending and deficits
Their position on immigration
Their position on abortion and gay marriage
Their position on Medicare and Social Security
Because they support or oppose President Obama
Their position on women and women's issues
Because of their political party
7
Now I am going to read you a list of reasons people vote for one candidate over another. After I read this
list, tell me which THREE are the most important when deciding who to vote for in the election for U.S.
Senate.
Among voting for Republican, economy top, but foreign
policy and the health care law top of second tier
Voting for Republican
*Note: Senate Battleground survey conducted Sept. 20-24, 2014 among 1,000 likely 2014 voters
50
40
36
33
29
26
21
16
11
9
Their position on the economy, creating jobs, and
improving wages
Their position on the new health care law
Their position on women and women's issues
Their position on Medicare and Social Security
Their position on abortion and gay marriage
Their position on foreign policy and ISIS
Their position on spending and deficits
Their position on immigration
Because of their political party
Because they support or oppose President Obama
8
Now I am going to read you a list of reasons people vote for one candidate over another. After I read this
list, tell me which THREE are the most important when deciding who to vote for in the election for U.S.
Senate.
But for unmarried women, it is economy, new health care
law, and womens issues
Unmarried women
*Note: Senate Battleground survey conducted Sept. 20-24, 2014 among 1,000 likely 2014 voters
53
37
31
30
27
25
24
19
11
11
Their position on the economy, creating jobs, and
improving wages
Their position on the new health care law
Their position on immigration
Their position on Medicare and Social Security
Their position on foreign policy and ISIS
Their position on women and women's issues
Their position on spending and deficits
Their position on abortion and gay marriage
Because they support or oppose President Obama
Because of their political party
9
Now I am going to read you a list of reasons people vote for one candidate over another. After I read this
list, tell me which THREE are the most important when deciding who to vote for in the election for U.S.
Senate.
For Rising American Electorate, it is economy and ACA
Rising American Electorate
*Note: Senate Battleground survey conducted Sept. 20-24, 2014 among 1,000 likely 2014 voters
56
36
31
30
24
21
20
19
16
12
Their position on the economy, creating jobs, and
improving wages
Their position on the new health care law
Their position on Medicare and Social Security
Their position on women and women's issues
Their position on foreign policy and ISIS
Their position on immigration
Their position on abortion and gay marriage
Their position on spending and deficits
Because they support or oppose President Obama
Because of their political party
10
Now I am going to read you a list of reasons people vote for one candidate over another. After I read this
list, tell me which THREE are the most important when deciding who to vote for in the election for U.S.
Senate.
Health care law second most important reason to vote
among minority voters
Minority
*Note: Senate Battleground survey conducted Sept. 20-24, 2014 among 1,000 likely 2014 voters
11
18
65
78
Single payer Big government
11
Please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the
SECOND statement comes closer to your own view,
even if neither is exactly right.
One in five of ACA opponents opposed because not a government
run program: only 42 percent opposed because big government
+60
I'm opposed because it's a big government
solution that we cannot afford.
I'm opposed because you still have to buy private
insurance and Id prefer a single-payer,
government-run system like Canada.
Among those opposed to ACA
Unsure
4%
Support
ACA
42%
Oppose
- prefer
single
payer
10%
Oppose
- big
gov't
42%
Do you support or oppose the health care reform
law that passed in 2010, also known as the
Affordable Care Act or Obamacare?
*Note: Senate Battleground survey conducted Sept. 20-24, 2014 among 1,000 likely 2014 voters
52
74
49
34
26
8
6
38
10
11
34
15
13
45
56
Support Opp:
single
payer
Oppose:
big gov't
Support Opp:
single
payer
Oppose:
big gov't
Support Opp:
single
payer
Oppose:
big gov't
Support Opp:
single
payer
Oppose:
big gov't
Support Opp:
single
payer
Oppose:
big gov't
12
Do you support or oppose the health care reform law that passed in 2010, also known as the Affordable Care Act or Obamacare?
ACA support by groups
Minority Youth Seniors
White non-
college
Unmarried
women
I'm opposed because you still have to buy private insurance and Id prefer a single-payer,
government-run system like Canada.
I'm opposed because it's a big government solution that we cannot afford.
I support the Affordable Care Act or Obamacare
*Note: Senate Battleground survey conducted Sept. 20-24, 2014 among 1,000 likely 2014 voters
58
56 56
63
64
32
36
35
26
30
Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Democrat Republican
Democrat Republican
I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for Congress in 2014, if the election for U.S. Congress were
held today, would you be voting for the Democratic candidate or Republican (HOUSE INCUMBENT)?
+20 +37
October 2013
13
April 2014
Unmarried women moving to strong vote
June 2013
+26
Unmarried women
*Note: Based on House battleground surveys conducted over the past 2 years. Incumbent names were inserted with party identification.
Generic challengers were inserted as The Democratic Candidate.
December 2013
+21 +34
October 2014
53
55
48
51
39
43
42
53
39 39
42
44
50 50
45
42
Vote for Democrat Vote for Republican
14
Thinking about the election for Senate in November, if the election for U.S. Senate were
held today, would you be voting for the Democratic candidate or the Republican
candidate?
+11 +11
Democrats competitive because of changes primarily from white
unmarried women and white non-college women
+14
July September
+3
July September July September July September
White non-college-
educated women
White unmarried
women
College-educated
women
White college-
educated women
+16 +6 +7 +7
*Note: Senate Battleground survey conducted Sept. 20-24, 2014 among 1,000 likely 2014 voters
29
39
41
56
69
71
Likely
voters
RAE Unm
wom
In your shoes narrative stronger than Republican narrative
and that is a change in battleground
15
President Obama has failed on
the economy. The middle class
is struggling with declining
paychecks, high unemployment,
and the rising costs of
healthcare, college, and even a
tank of gas. Bigger government,
higher spending, and never
ending deficits are not the
answer. We need to repeal
Obamacare, cut regulations, and
lower taxes. We need to build
the Keystone Pipeline and use
our energy to create jobs and
lower gas prices. We can bring
back opportunity, balance the
budget, and spark an economic
recovery if we get big
government out of the way.
People are drowning because
jobs don't pay enough to live on.
We need leaders who can live a
day of our lives and make
change for us, not for the
richest who show up with the
big money. We must help
people here with affordable
college, job training, and
childcare. We must raise the
minimum wage and make sure
women get equal pay so
working women and families
can keep up with the cost of
living. We need an economy
here that works for working
people and the middle class
again, not just those with the
big money.
30
22
24
53
46
45
Likely
voters
RAE Unm
wom
Now I am going to read you some things a Democrat/Republican is saying about the economy and what needs to be
done to make things better. Please tell me whether you find it a very convincing, somewhat convincing, a little
convincing, or a not at all convincing statement about the economy and how to make it better.
*Note: Senate Battleground survey conducted Sept. 20-24, 2014 among 1,000 likely 2014 voters
Democratic message has bigger effect on vote than
Republican
September
July
*Note: Senate Battleground survey conducted Sept. 20-24, 2014 among 1,000 likely 2014 voters
45
48
47
46
Democrat Republican Democrat Republican
Democrat Republican
+2
+2
Now let me ask you again, thinking about the election for Senate next year, if the election for U.S. Senate
were held today, would you be voting for -- (Democratic candidate) or (Republican candidate)?
Competing narratives and agenda shifts vote margin by 4
points to Democrats
17
Initial Vote After policies and messages
*Note: Senate Battleground survey conducted Sept. 20-24, 2014 among 1,000 likely 2014 voters
47
42
40
70
74
62
54
49
49
79
84
73
Working women and mens agenda, now with secret
money, helps Democratic candidates
18
Now I am going to read you some things being proposed by Democrats as part of their plan to deal with the economy. After
each item, please tell me whether you would be more or less likely to support a candidate who proposed that policy.
Unmarried
women
Finally recognize that working mothers need help by protecting
pregnant workers and new mothers from being fired or
demoted, making sure they have paid sick days and access to
affordable childcare
Raise the minimum wage to ten dollars an hour and expand
access to scholarships and affordable college so working
women and men can continue their education and train for
better jobs with higher wages.
Pass a Constitutional amendment to prevent wealthy special
interests and big corporations from spending unlimited
amounts of secret money to buy elections, so we can take the
power away from a few billionaires and give the power to
regular citizens.
MUCH MORE
Total
*Note: Senate Battleground survey conducted Sept. 20-24, 2014 among 1,000 likely 2014 voters
36
35
30
29
61
62
51
57
Very serious doubts
Wealthy special interests, equal pay attacks provoke
strong doubts on Ernst
19
More and more women are breadwinners for their families, but women make just
77 cents for every dollar men make. Joni Ernst is opposed to requiring equal pay for
women who do the same job as a man. And she would allow insurance companies
to charge women higher premiums than men and force women to pay for
preventive care like mammograms.
Joni Ernst is a Tea Party extremist who won't represent Iowa's views. She has said
she would support efforts to impeach the president, believes that states can ignore
federal laws and has spoken at length about long debunked conspiracy theories.
Joni Ernst supports the Supreme Court's decision to allow wealthy special interests
and big corporations spend unlimited amounts of secret money to buy elections,
taking the power away from regular citizens and putting it in the hands of just a few
billionaires. So, Joni Ernst made sure CEOs paid no higher taxes and that their
loopholes are protected, while working men and women struggle.
Joni Ernst puts special interests over Iowa's interests. She signed a pledge to special
interest groups to protect tax breaks for companies that ship jobs overseas.
Now I'm going to read you some things that Republicans like Joni Ernst in Washington and in your state are trying to do.
These could decide whether you vote in November. Please tell me whether it raises very serious doubts, serious doubts,
minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about Joni Ernst when you are thinking of voting in November.
*Note: Senate Battleground survey conducted Sept. 20-24, 2014 among 1,000 likely 2014 voters
29
24
29
53
60
57
Very serious doubts
Democrat Secret Money message more powerful than
core GOP critique on Democrats
20
Democrats in Congress are rubber stamps for Obama's failed policies that
have killed jobs, hurt middle class families and added trillions to the national
debt. They raised taxes to pay for more government programs and spending,
like Obama's failed trillion-dollar stimulus plan and Obamacare, which has
caused millions of Americans to have their insurance cancelled or to pay
higher costs.
Now I'm going to read you a statement about the (Democrats/Republicans) in Congress. This could decide whether
you vote in November. Please tell me whether it raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real
doubts in your own mind about the (Democrats/Republicans) when you are thinking of voting in November.
(HALF SAMPLE: SECRET MONEY) The Republicans in Congress support the
Supreme Court's decision to allow wealthy special interests, CEOs and big
corporations to spend unlimited amounts of secret money to buy elections,
taking the power away from regular citizens and putting it in the hands of just
a few billionaires. In return, Republicans in Congress make sure these CEOs
pay no higher taxes and that their loopholes are protected, while working
men and women struggle.
(HALF SAMPLE: MONEY OUTSOURCING) The Republicans in Congress
supported unfair trade deals with countries like China that have resulted in
the loss of hundreds of thousands of American jobs and protected tax breaks
for companies that send American jobs overseas. Meanwhile, they've
pocketed millions of dollars from the CEOs, PACs, and lobbyists of the
corporations that outsourced our jobs.
*Note: Senate Battleground survey conducted Sept. 20-24, 2014 among 1,000 likely 2014 voters
28
34
35
56
58
68
Very serious doubts
21
(MONEY OUTSOURCING)
The Republicans in
Congress supported unfair
trade deals with countries
like China that have
resulted in the loss of
hundreds of thousands of
American jobs and
protected tax breaks for
companies that send
American jobs overseas.
Meanwhile, they've
pocketed millions of
dollars from the CEOs,
PACs, and lobbyists of the
corporations that
outsourced our jobs.
(SECRET MONEY) The
Republicans in Congress
support the Supreme
Court's decision to allow
wealthy special interests,
CEOs and big corporations
to spend unlimited amounts
of secret money to buy
elections, taking the power
away from regular citizens
and putting it in the hands
of just a few billionaires. In
return, Republicans in
Congress make sure these
CEOs pay no higher taxes
and that their loopholes are
protected, while working
men and women struggle.
Likely
Voters
RAE
25
27
29
60
64
65
Very serious doubts
Secret Money critique particularly powerful with
congressional swing voters, Rising American Electorate
Now I'm going to read you a statement about the Republicans in Congress. This could decide whether you vote in
November. Please tell me whether it raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in
your own mind about the Republicans when you are thinking of voting in November.
Und/
Lean
Likely
Voters
RAE
Und/
Lean
*Note: Senate Battleground survey conducted Sept. 20-24, 2014 among 1,000 likely 2014 voters
Louisiana
19
15
14
36
33
31
Comparative on womens issues stands out as top
comparative
23
Now, let me read you a series of statements. For each statement, please tell me whether this description makes you much more likely to vote for
Mary Landrieu, somewhat more likely to vote for Mary Landrieu, just a little more likely to vote for Mary Landrieu, or no more likely to vote for
Mary Landrieu?
In the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, Landrieu brought over 50 billion
recovery dollars to Louisiana, and she has voted to cut red tape for small
businesses so they could get back to work after the storms. But while
thousands of Louisianans struggled to rebuild their homes, businesses and
communities after the storms, Bill Cassidy voted against relief for hurricane
victims and opposed funding for coastal restoration.
Mary Landrieu voted to hold the Wall Street banks accountable for their
practices that caused our economy to crash, and she voted to end tax breaks
for corporations that send American jobs overseas to places like China and
India. But Bill Cassidy supported protecting tax breaks for corporations that
ship American jobs overseas. Cassidy also voted to give tax breaks to people
making over a million dollars a year, while at the same time raising taxes by
hundred dollars on middle class families
Mary Landrieu stands up for Louisiana women, voting for equal pay for women
and men and to prevent insurance companies from charging women more than
men. She's also worked to make college affordable and lower student debt. But
Bill Cassidy voted to block women from being paid the same as men for equal
work and he voted against a bipartisan plan to protect women against
domestic violence. And even though he is a doctor, Cassidy voted to cut off
women's access to cancer screenings and maternity care.
Much More Likely
Persuadables
*Note: Survey of 1,000 likely 2014 white voters in Louisiana , with 456 persuadable voters conducted Oct. 11-14, 2014.
19
23
36
42
Much More Likely
Womens message and hurricane relief top comparatives
overall and among key groups
24
In the wake of Hurricanes
Katrina and Rita, Landrieu
brought over 50 billion recovery
dollars to Louisiana, and she has
voted to cut red tape for small
businesses so they could get
back to work after the storms.
But while thousands of
Louisianans struggled to rebuild
their homes, businesses and
communities after the storms,
Bill Cassidy voted against relief
for hurricane victims and
opposed funding for coastal
restoration.
Mary Landrieu stands up for
Louisiana women, voting for
equal pay for women and men
and to prevent insurance
companies from charging
women more than men. She's
also worked to make college
affordable and lower student
debt. But Bill Cassidy voted to
block women from being paid
the same as men for equal work
and he voted against a
bipartisan plan to protect
women against domestic
violence. And even though he is
a doctor, Cassidy voted to cut
off women's access to cancer
screenings and maternity care.
Now, let me read you a series of statements. For each statement, please tell me whether this description makes you much more likely to vote for
Mary Landrieu, somewhat more likely to vote for Mary Landrieu, just a little more likely to vote for Mary Landrieu, or no more likely to vote for
Mary Landrieu?
Persuad-
ables
Unmarr
Women
15
28
33
47
Much More Likely
Persuad-
ables
Unmarr
Women
*Note: Survey of 1,000 likely 2014 white voters in Louisiana , with 456 persuadable voters conducted Oct. 11-14, 2014.
44
40
36
69
65
65
Vets and Secret Money are strongest attacks on Cassidy
25
Now, let me read you a series of statements that could be used to describe Bill Cassidy. For each statement, please tell me whether this
description raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts or no real doubts in your own mind about Bill Cassidy.
Cassidy supports the Supreme Court's decision to allow wealthy special interests
and big corporations spend unlimited amounts of secret money to buy elections,
taking the power away from regular citizens and putting it in the hands of just a
few billionaires. Cassidy made sure CEOs paid no higher taxes and that their
loopholes are protected, while working men and women struggle.
Cassidy is a doctor, but he voted for a plan that would cut veterans benefits,
including health care and disability compensation. And Cassidy opposed
expanding veterans' access to the LSU VA hospital, while he pocketed more than
one million dollars from teaching at LSU and working at the hospital. He even
voted against a small pay increase for troops serving in Afghanistan, but voted to
protect his own pay.
Very Serious Doubts
Persuadables
Cassidy is a doctor, yet he voted to end the Medicare guarantee, which would
force seniors to negotiate with insurance companies and cost them thousands
more out of pocket every year. He also voted to cut Social Security benefits and
to raise the retirement age to 70, even though the average lifespan for poorer
Louisianans is only 67.**
**One of the strongest drivers of the revote in regression modelling
*Note: Survey of 1,000 likely 2014 white voters in Louisiana , with 456 persuadable voters conducted Oct. 11-14, 2014.
26
And still thinking about the election for U.S. Senate, if the December runoff election for U.S.
Senate were being held today and the candidates were Democrat Mary Landrieu and
Republican Bill Cassidy, for whom would you vote?
Revote Cassidy
Negatives
Initial Vote
+39
Revote
Comparative
+29 +52
After a comparative experiment Landrieu gains 10 points
among persuadables
19
23
29
71
62
58
Vote for Landrieu Vote for Cassidy
Among Persuadables Voters
*Note: Survey of 1,000 likely 2014 white voters in Louisiana , with 456 persuadable voters conducted Oct. 11-14, 2014.
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