Copyright

R&D Management

2002

Dr. Alex Coman

The Kite Project Model

OEM/

Pro
toG
Risk
en
Sim

VIP
Re
/BN
Org sou
/
ani rce
zat s
ion

As

Alex@Coman.org

V&V
Activity

Nice-to-have Value
Killer
Risk
Existential
Platform

Stabilize
ges ature)
a
k
c
,F e
Freeze
e
k Pa
c
r
r
o
s/W (Resou
e
i
t
i
Actievnt:Time
m
sign

Structure
Resources: Project/Functional
Product: Configuration Management
Project: Kite
Push/Pull/ Drum-Buffer-Rope

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R&D Management

Product

ic
Stratteingg
Ga

l
Tacticnag
Gati

VAR

Copyright

R&D Management

Dr. Alex Coman

The Kite Project Model

Knowledge Area
Initiating the Project

2002

Determine Project Goals

Determine Deliverables
Determine Process Outputs
Document Project Constraints
Document Assumptions
Define Project Strategy
Identify Performance Requirements
Determine Resource Requirements
Define Project Budget
Provide Comprehensive Information

Controlling the Project

Measure Project Performance

7
Refine Control Limits
4
Take Corrective Action
7
Evaluate Effectiveness of Corrective Action 5
Ensure Plan Compliance
7
Reassess Control Plans
4
Respond to Risk Event Triggers
6
Monitor Project Activity
5

2
Closing
the Project
2
1
Obtain Acceptance of Deliverables

2 Document Lessons Learned

Facilitate Closure
Planning the Project

Refine Project Requirements

8 Preserve Product Records and Tools

Create WBS
7 Release Project Resources

Professional
Responsibility
Develop Resource Management Plan
6

Refine Time and Cost Estimates

6 Ensure Professionalism and Integrity

Establish Project controls

6 Contribute to Knowledge Base

7
Develop Project Plan
Enhance Individual Competence

7
Obtain Plan Approval
Balance Stakeholder Interests

Interact with Team and Stakeholders

Executing the Project

Commit Project Resources

10

Implement Project Plan

9

Manage Project Progress

11

Communicate Project Progress

9

Implement Quality Assurance Procedures 9

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R&D Management

4
2
3
3
2
8
3
5
7
6

Telecommunications:
R&D Management
Copyright 2002
Dr. Alex Coman
Concept
Project Planning
Planning
Business requirements
Solicited
Unsolicited
System requirements
RFI, RFP, RFQ; Marketing-Requirement-Document
Network plan
MRD
PO
Technical specifications
Implementation phase
Engineering design
Statement-Of-Work
Billing implementation
SOW
Operations engineering
Customer service
Launch
Bill-Of-Materials BOM: Work-Breakdown-Structure Component
Procedure
WBS: SRS
COGS: Recurring Costs
Work Packages
1%-5% of total

Technological
Precedence

Program-Evaluation & Review-Technique

PERT
MRD

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PRD

Spec

MKT/
R&D/
R&D R&D Management
MKT
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MKT

Three
horizons:
R&D planning
Management
RFP response
Pre Analysis
Post Analysis

Copyright

2002

Dr. Alex Coman

Project Planning: ATM Machine

Solicited: Request-For-Product (RFP); Client

Automatic Teller Machine
Statement-Of-Work (SOW); Sales
Deposit and Withdraw funds
Hardware Work-Breakdown-Structure (WBS); Software
Systems engineering
Input

Output

Card Keyboard Checks Screen Printer Money Security Comm. Withdrawal Deposit
Procedure; Resource management
HW: RFI, Spec, RFP, Auction
SW: Analysis, Design, Code, Test
Work Packages
Technological Precedence
Approximately 50 HW required for SW testing
Program-Evaluation & Review-Technique (PERT)
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R&D Management

2002

Dr. Alex Coman

Duration Planning
Program-Evaluation & Review-Technique
PERT

Effort Estimate
Function-Points

Man Months
Work

Resources

Duration

Calendar

Schedule
Critical-Path-Method
CPM

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R&D Management

Copyright 2002
Dr. Alex Coman
Strategic Gating: Configuration
Management/Control

R&D Management

Marketing/
Sales
Refactoring/
New Tech.
Cost Reduction
Bugs

Steering
Committee:
Priorities
Strategic Tactical Gating:
Projec
Gating:
t
Prioritization In Kit, BMT
Roadmap

Fix/
Patch
Tier 4
Tier 3
Tier 2
Tier 1
Users

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QA:

Repository
ECO
Out Kit

Produ
ct

ion

FCO

R&D Management

Copyright

Dedication to
project (%)

R&D Management

2002

Dr. Alex Coman

Bad Multitasking: Lead time + Mental

Setup

100
80
60
40
20
0

Individuals on the team

Lead Time + Work-In-Process
Job 1

Job 2

Job 3
Time

% time spent on
value-adding tasks

Job1 Job2
Job2Job1Job1
Job2 Job2
Job1 Job3
Job2
Job3 Job3
Job2 Job1
Time

Job3

Productivity of Development Engineering Time

1
Alex@Coman.org

2
3
4
Projects assigned concurrently to a single engineer
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R&D Management

Copyright

R&D Management

2002

Dr. Alex Coman

Project Management Root Cause Analysis

Throughput--

Positionin
g
High risk

Mental
Setup

Time-To-Market
++
Student

AdHoc
Root DeSpec
Conflict 40-20-40

Over
Design

Fines

Due-Date
Performance --

Rework
Cycles ++

95% Complete
Coordination
Failure

Quality
--WIP++

Bad
Multi-Tasking
Efficiency

Large
Work Package
Save Mgmt.
Resources

x10

Un-Desired
Effects
(Measurable)

Spec
Creep

Root
Gating
Problems
Differential ABCD

Incomplete
Kits
Shorten
Lead Time

Objectives

Project Tapering
Constraint:
Resources:Technical + Managerial ReUse; Outsource
Strategic Framework
Projects
Gating
Goal: Throughput G&G=g&g
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R&D Management

Copyright

R&D Management

2002

Dr. Alex Coman

Type A: Customization / Maintenance

Well-known existing technology.
Some type of construction
Engineering consulting firms perform product architecture, engineering design
and resource planning.
Basis for price quotation and contract negotiation with potential contractors
responsible for project execution.
Product entirely shaped and design completely frozen prior to execution phase.
Projects executed after formal contract is signed.
Managed in formal and rigid style. No changes introduced.
Focus: finish on time within budget.
Little development, testing, redesign.
Communication between teams through formal channels, documents, and forms.
Regular meetings on a low rate basis: once a month / two weeks.
Payment mechanism: Fixed price, contractual milestones.

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R&D Management

Copyright

R&D Management

2002

Dr. Alex Coman

Type B: Next Generation

Building a new product in a well-established industry, developing a derivative or

modification of a previous design to achieve better performance, increased reliability

or extended operational life.

Contractors responsible for entire range of activities: engineering design, resource

Planning, execution.

Technologies employed not entirely new. Some development and testing.

Only limited changes added to the initial design.

Managers resist change and avoid excessive costs.

Design frozen early, no later than first or second quarter of execution period, after
one or at most two design cycles.

No formal risk-management procedure

Communication more intense, regular weekly or biweekly meetings of the management

team, biweekly or monthly meetings with major subcontractors. Additional in-between
Communications: ad hoc meetings, telephone, E-mail to resolve occasional problems.
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R&D Management

R&D Management

Copyright

2002

Dr. Alex Coman

Type C: New Product Development

Completely new product or system that did not exist in the past.
Some new to the industry, new product line for company.
50% based on technical feasibility rather than market need, initiated by contractor.
Long periods of development, testing and redesign.
Design freeze scheduled in 2nd or 3rd quarter of the projects duration. Was not
concluded until 2-3 design cycles were performed.
Many changes were made before the products specifications were finalized.
A much more flexible attitude, extensive trade-offs. Often requirements can not be met
without substantial addition of time and budget. Sometimes customers agree to
waive requirements.
Intensive formal and informal communication among project teams, customers.
Written status reports, computer printouts, minutes, messages and memos. But, major
flow is oral, conducted during meetings for problem solving and information sharing.
Meetings of the project team, all subcontractors, customers.
Atmosphere of open communications and continuous discussions. In some cases
social events: parties, barbecues and field trips to increase interaction and reinforce
Team cohesiveness and spirit.
Payment mechanism: Cost Plus components, contractual milestones.
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R&D Management

R&D Management

Copyright

2002

Dr. Alex Coman

Type D: First-Of-A-Kind FOAK

Projects envisioned to respond to some far-reaching needs.

No adequate technology is available at project initiation.
Focus: extremely high level of uncertainty as to what technology should be used.
Customer decision to commit to the project marked by hesitation because of risk
involved.
To prove validity of the systems concept (POC) and to test unknown technologies:
involve an intermediate program in which an experimental, scaled-down prototype model is
built.
Product design and specification freeze scheduled for a late moment, often during the
third quarter of the project.
2-5 design cycles.
Management style: high level of flexibility and tolerance for change, high awareness of
potential problems.
Atmosphere: Look for trouble it must be there; if you dont see it, you have a problem.
High uncertainty and continuous flow of changes require enormous amounts of
information exchange and extensive communication. No one waited for formal meetings
and documents to report problems and documents.

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R&D Management

Copyright

R&D Management

2002

Dr. Alex Coman

National Semiconductors Customer Scenario

Choose a Part

Create a Design

Analyze Design

Explore option:
Select a part for Review
product What other
Power supply
Run
Details
Parts do
Bill of
Based on
simulations
Do cost/benefit
I need?
materials Iterative Loop
Parameters
analysis
Bill of
Design two Webench
materials
Select specific
Cost/Benefit
Subsystems: Expert
Subsystem
Bill
of Materials
Analysis
System Data
Power
Simulation
for
power
supply
Folders
Run thermal
Have a
Circuitry
Product
Simulations
to
Satisfactory
Data Sheets
design
Select specific See interaction
Chip
Bill of Materials
Thermal
simulations
for circuitry
simulation
Explore option:
Select a part for Review
product What other
Iterative Loop
circuitry
Run
Details
Parts do
Bill
of
Based on
simulations materials
Do cost/benefit
I need?
Parameters
analysis
Outcome:
Bill of
Complete circuitry design
Webench
materials
For mobile phone
Cost/Benefit
Expert
Build design
Subsystem
Analysis
System Data
Build
Into prototype
Simulation
Order parts for prototype
Folders
For testing
Product
Bill of
Data Sheets
materials
Order reference design
Chip
prototype
Build
Prototype
Buy
simulations

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R&D Management

R&D Management

Copyright

2002

Dr. Alex Coman

Classical Model
1.

2.

3.

Planning
Project initiation
Defining Goals and Priorities
Defining Constraints
Basic Assumptions
Quantitative measures of success
Initial definition
Learning the current system
Initial definition of
Output
Input
Data stores
Feasibility study
Identifying alternatives
Estimate:
I/O volume,
Processing frequency
File sizes
Economic feasibility
Organizational/Operational feasibility
Technological feasibility
Comparing alternatives
Selecting preferred alternative
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4.

5.

System analysis of:

Output
Input
Storage
Processes
Equipment
Procedures:
Operation
Backup
Recovery
Data security
Control
Conversion and Training
Detailed Design
Building
Programmers: Programming, Debugging
Organizational team: File conversion,
Acceptance testing, Operation
Analysts: Supervision, testing.
Operation
1. Operation
2. Fixing bugs
3. Measuring: Next Generation
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R&D Management

Copyright

2002

Dr. Alex Coman

6 Measures

Feasibility Study:
Alternatives: Make or Buy
6 Measures: soft vs. hard benefits
Financial:
Throughput = Sales Direct Expenses; Throughput/Bottleneck Hours.
Cost reduction
Operating Expenses: efficiency = less people or more productivity
Competitive:
Agility: Lead Time=Time(FinishStart)=Work+Wait. Due-Date-Performance
Customization: printed material (not off the shelf)
Functional:
Inventory: Raw materials+Work-In-Process+Finished Goods
Quality
Process: Total Quality
Product/Service: Mean-Time-Between-Failure (MTBF)
Commtouch Anti-Spam-Active-Protection server.: Osterman: 66%(Email)=Spam(57%@2001)
75 email/day=14,500 spam/year. 213 Mega Byte/user/year. $50,000/year employee =
$389/year lost time:2000 $10B/redundant links to web. Likewise ISP. 1/100 innocent as spam.
charge $20/mailbox if 10,000 users. Distributors: 35%-50% revenue. Pret-A-Manger time
trade-off: <90 seconds to buy sandwich. Save 10Mins vs. Deli.
Hazera: Cotton seeds that shorten growth by 3 weeks. Critical, 1 in 5 years early rain
damage.
Rockets for 30%/60% damage of Tank platoon, headquarters. Increased accuracy.
McDonalds: Chicago franchiser asked for extension to his franchise agreement got it
-15WWW.Coman.org
R&D Management
in one Alex@Coman.org
hour vs. 20 monthsTel:(972)3-510-1768
in past.(Forbes, June,15,98p.43)

Copyright

R&D Management

2002

Dr. Alex Coman

Value Boosters
Corporate Value
Throughput
Sales
Constraint
Management

Quantity

Operating Expenses

Direct Expenses
WIP

Price

Agility Customization Quality

Brand
Critical
Chain

Control
Cycle
Current-Reality-Tree

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R&D Management

Copyright

R&D Management

2002

Dr. Alex Coman

Management Challenges

Probability

Risk Management:
A Project: Net/CPM, Gantt
B Project: PERT = Distribution
Bullwhip effect
Reliability: 80%
Student Effect
Over design
C Project:
Cycles
Monte
Carlo
Simulation.
Excessive padding
D Project: System Dynamics;
Graphical-ERT

Optimistic
Most
Likely

Pessimistic

Duration

Expected= (O+4M+P)/6

SOW

Prototyping

Analysis

Marketing

Study

Programming

Testing
40%

SOW
Alex@Coman.org

Prototyping

Analysis

Marketing

Study

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Make

Make

Buy

Buy

Decision

WWW.Coman.org

60%

R&D Management

Copyright

R&D Management

2002

Dr. Alex Coman

Effort Estimation: Function Points

COnstructive-COst-MOdel
Lines of code
Team
Client
Environment: productivity

Simple measures:
Building: surface
Airplane: weight
Submarine: volume

1.Input:
Name of Document
User

4.Interactive Inquiry:
Progress (words)
Output:
5.No. Words reviewed
6.No. Errors found
7.List of misspelled words

Program

3.Internal File:
Dictionary

2.External File:
Document
To be
Checked

System
Interfaces
Integration

Product

Generalization, Testing,
Documentation,
Maintenance
Alex@Coman.org

Spell
Checker

Tel:(972)3-510-1768 -18-

Project cost: X9

System

Product
Non Development Items

Andersen consulting

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R&D Management

Copyright

R&D Management

V&
V
Examiner
Verification &
Developer
User
Validation
Verification Validation
Developer
Site
User

QA
Customer
Support

2002

Dr. Alex Coman

Usability engineering Jacob Nielsen:

12 Bank account statement forms.

Info: Size of recent deposit; Interest rate; Credit limit
38 beginner development staff; Two users observed

56%

80%

76%
50%

50%
20%

V 1.0 V 8.0
Correctness

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V 1.0 V 8.0
Programmers

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V 1.0 V 8.0
Post

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R&D Management

Copyright

2002

Dr. Alex Coman

V&
V

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R&D Management

Copyright

R&D Management

2002

Dr. Alex Coman

Conversion Incremental

Instant
Old System

New Function1
New Function2
New Function3

Old
System

New System
Pilot

Parallel

Beta site(s)

Old System
New System

All Sites
Clean room

Beta site; Function1; Parallel

All sites: Instant
EDI in the Netherlands
1 Supplier: Phillips
20% Purchasing Value
45,000 Purchase Order Lines/year
4 Suppliers
28% PV
60,000 POLs/year
1988
1989
Start Pilot Pilot Project
Project
Operational
Alex@Coman.org

7 Suppliers
Top 20 Suppliers
35% PV
65% PV
90,000 POLs/year 180,000 POLs/year

1990

1991
1992
Follow-up Project
Implementation Projects

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1993
Phillips: 1 exchange/day
Others: 1/week

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R&D Management

Copyright

2002

Dr. Alex Coman

Cost of [Lack of] Quality: X10 Law. IBM, GTE, TRW

240
Exposed

47%
None

24
Damaged

Nielsen: 1
Complaint

250%:
380%
Spec

70%
Use
100%
Code

75%
Test

Quality criticality: Supplier to Operator vs. OEM

Alex@Coman.org
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+Sale toTel:(972)3-510-1768
Operational/marketing
vs.
Engineering

R&D Management

Copyright

R&D Management

2002

Dr. Alex Coman

Rapid prototyping
GUI validation
Risk management
Simulation

Rapid
Prototyping
Disposable
Lifecycle

Generator
Expandable

Application Generators
4th Generation Languages: 4GL
Rapid Application Development: RAD
Design
Validation

Application
Programming

Designer PrototypeProgrammer
4GL
= Spec. Coding
Designer
Code Programmer
4GL
Generator Coding
Designer
4GL

4GL Expansion
Prog. Expansion

In Silico vs. In vitro

Evogene has bioinformatic ability to predict genetic behavior in plants prior to actual test
Can develop miniature plants for accelerated testing.
Many plants take less space, lifecycle accelerated. 1 year=3 tomato generations vs. 1
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R&D Management

Copyright

R&D Management

2002

Dr. Alex Coman

Life-Cycle Configuration Management: Product Roadmap

Marketing
Systems Prototype
Engineering

Spiral
Release

Rapid Prototyping
Development
Quality
Integration
Production
Sales

Windows 2000

Millennium, 2000
30 MLOC

Windows 98, Q2: 120MB

NT 4.0, 1996
18.9 MLOC
NT 3.51, 1995
10.1 MLOC

Windows 95, August: 76MB

Windows 3.1, April 92
10.5MB
Alex@Coman.org

Service

Features

Tel:(972)3-510-1768 -24-

NT 3.5, 1994
8.3 MLOC
NT 3.1, 1993
6.1 MLOC
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Features

R&D Management

R&D Management

Copyright

2002

Dr. Alex Coman

Brisk Technology Innovation Sony HandyCam

Date
12/85
7/86
Model
M8
M10
Viewer
Optical View Finder
Optics
Lens
15mm Fixed Lens
250,000 Pixels CCD
Optical to CCD
M-series Board Modified
Electronic Circuit
Drive
8mm Double Head
Recording Cassette
8mm Cassette
Sound
Microphone Electro Condenser
Power
Battery
NP-22
Supply
Adapter
ACP-80UC
AC Pack
Casing
M-series Casing Modified

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4/87
10/87
V-30
V-50
0.7 inch B/W CRT
12-30mm Zoom 12-72mm
V-series Board
Modified
+Playback feature

1/88
V-90
Smaller
300,000
V-90
Triple Head

NP-55
ACP88UC AC V33 w/
Adapter Pack
V-series Casing Modified

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R&D Management

Copyright

R&D Management

2002

Dr. Alex Coman

Extreme Development: Wave PLM

Spiral (Release:DB&S+Fluid+ASP)+
Variety (Porting+Versioning)+
Distributed

Features/
Function Points

Millennium: Most Demanding Tasks

User/Info Dir, Intelli-mirror;
NT4.0: Large Data Proc.
30MLOC
1997 update: Cluster
Windows CE
1.6M copies
NT3.51: Web Server18.9MLOC
No need for special SW;
NT3.5: Faster, Stable10.1MLOC
SOHO; 8.3MLOC
93 NT3.1: 32 bit
2000
29K copies; 6.1MLOC
98: HTML editor; 120MB

Apr 92: Win 3.1: Screensaver,

TrueType 10.5MB

95: TCP/IP; 76MB

Mar 93:MS-DOS 6
5
Disk
Backup
& Compression
4.1
88: DOS 4

92

93

Alex@Coman.org

94

95

96

Tel:(972)3-510-1768 -26-

97

98

99

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00 Time/Release
R&D Management

Copyright

R&D Management

2002

Dr. Alex Coman

Product Development Life Cycle:

PDLC
Market Potential Maturity
Cash
Flow

Payback
Time To Market
De
n/
o
i
ve
ct th
lop
u
d w
me
nt IntroGro

Initiation

Alex@Coman.org

De
c li

ne

Release
N+1
Time

Release
N

Launch Breakeven
PeakTermination
Legend:
Goldman and Muller
Kaplan
Coman and Sadeh: TOP

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Copyright

R&D Management

2002

Dr. Alex Coman

Technology Optimization Planning - TOP

CF=at2+bt+c

Td=1.5(-b)
2a

Cash
Flow

Termination

Developer

-b
2a

Release
2.0

Termination

Cash
Flow

Release
1.0
Peak
TTP
Time-To-Peak - TTP
2

Time
T
2
(at bt c)dt
2 bt
at
0
MAX

c
T
3 2
2 bt
at
d(
c) 2aT b
3 2

3 2
dT
T 3 ( b)
2 2a

TTPr<TTPd

TTPr
2

Retailer

Tr=1.5*TTPr<Td

Launch
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Time
R&D Management