The Atmosphere,

Climate, and Global

Warming

From Science Vol 326, page 28, October 2, 2009

IPCC Decadal Global Warming

The atmosphere
the thin layer of gas that envelops
the earth
many chemical reactions
often driven by intense solar radiation
(sunlight)

atmospheric circulation produces

weather and climates

Atmospheric gases
Gas
nitrogen
oxygen
argon
carbon dioxide
neon
helium
methane
krypton

Volume %
78.1
20.9
0.934
0.039
0.0018
0.0005
0.0002
0.0001

Weather versus climate

climate

the representative or characteristic

atmospheric conditions for a region on
Earth
long-term weather

weather

day to day conditions at a location

air temperature, precipitation, humidity,
wind

Structure of Atmosphere

Climates of the world

Electromagnetic radiation and

earths energy balance
electromagnetic spectrum
the collection of all possible wavelengths
of electromagnetic energy, considered a
continuous range

Electromagnetic
radiation

The greenhouse effect

effect
The process of trapping heat in the atmosphere
water vapor and several other gases warm the
earths atmosphere because they absorb and
emit radiation

greenhouse gasses
gasses that have a greenhouse effect
water vapor, carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide,
methane, CFCs

Greenhouse effect (continued)

natural effect
important to life
earth would be much colder without
21C colder (~38F)

we have altered because of gases we

add to atmosphere
unprecedented rates of change

Earths energy balance

Climatic Change
major climatic changes have occurred
during the past 2 million years
appearances and retreats of glaciers
during the past 100 years, the mean
global annual temperature has
increased by 0.5 degrees Celsius

Changes in earths temperature

Global temperatures for

the past 11,300 years
Note spike in temp

Ocean conveyor belt

Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change
IPCC
began in 1988
just issued fifth assessment
see earlier slide

use of climate models

Radiative Forcing

Units

1 Pg = 1 Petagram = 1x1015g = 1 Billion metric tons = 1 Gigaton

1 Tg = 1 Teragram = 1x1012g = 1 Million metric tons

1 Kg Carbon (C) = 3.67 Kg Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

Fossil Fuel and Cement Emissions

Global fossil fuel and cement emissions: 36.1 1.8 GtCO2 in 2013, 61% over 1990
Projection for 2014 : 37.0 1.9 GtCO2, 65% over 1990

Uncertainty is 5% for
one standard deviation
(IPCC likely range)

Estimates for 2011, 2012, and 2013 are preliminary

Source: CDIAC; Le Qur et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014

Top Fossil Fuel Emitters (Absolute)

The top four emitters in 2013 covered 58% of global emissions
China (28%), United States (14%), EU28 (10%), India (7%)

Bunkers fuel used for international transport is 3% of global emissions

Statistical differences between the global estimates and sum of national totals is 3% of global emissions
Source: CDIAC; Le Qur et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014

Top Fossil Fuel Emitters (Per Capita)

Chinas per capita emissions have passed the EU28 and are 45% above the global average

Per capita
emissions
in 2013

Source: CDIAC; Le Qur et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014

Global Carbon Budget

Emissions are partitioned between the atmosphere, land, and ocean

Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Joos et al 2013; Khatiwala et al 2013;
Le Qur et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014

Land-Use Change Emissions

Global land-use change emissions are estimated 3.3 1.8 GtCO2 during 20042013
The data suggests a general decrease in emissions since 1990

Indonesian
peat fires

Three different estimation methods have been used, indicated here by different shades of grey
Land-use change also emits CH4 and N2O which are not shown here
Source: Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Qur et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014

Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2004-2013 average)

32.41.6 GtCO2/yr

3.31.8 GtCO2/yr

91%

9%

15.80.4 GtCO2/yr
44%

10.62.9 GtCO2/yr
29%
Calculated as the residual
of all other flux components

26%
9.41.8 GtCO2/yr
Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Qur et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014

Changes in the Budget over Time

The sinks have continued to grow with increasing emissions, but climate change will affect
carbon cycle processes in a way that will exacerbate the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere
Data: GCP

Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Qur et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014

www.globalcarbonproject.org

South Pole

La Jolla Pier, CA

Global
circulation
or climate
models

Global temperature increase

Effects of Global Warming

changes in climatic patterns
rise in sea level
changes in biosphere
many, many have been found or are
expected to occur

Projected
temperature
changes

USDA Winter Hardiness Maps

1990 map

2012 map

Projected
wheat yields

Risks from sea level rise

Arctic ice is melting more

each summer

The Greenland ice sheet is

melting rapidly

Adjustments to Global
Warming
mitigate warming through reduction
of greenhouse gasses
energy conservation
alternative energy sources
critical danger: rapid climatic change

What we now know

exciting times ahead
climate change is occurring
no simple technological answer today
may never be one

most dont like to change lifestyle in

developed world