The X Internet:

Leveling the playing field for

businesses in developing nations
Navi Radjou
Senior Analyst

Eroica Howard
Research Assistant to the CEO

Waves of Internet innovation

?????
Web
Internet
users

Telnet

Gopher
WAIS

Email
FTP
1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Theme

The X Internet will let

businesses in developing
nations do more with
what they have

Agenda
Whats behind the X Internet?
What is the X Internet?
Early adopters of the X Internet in
developing nations
When will these changes take hold?

Whats behind the X Internet?

Bandwidth lags other technology

improvements
1981

1991

2001

CAGR

Computing

4 MHz
8088

25 MHz
80486

2,000 MHz
Pentium 4

50%

Storage

0.1 MB
floppies

30 MB
hard drive

100,000 MB
hard drive

62%

Bandwidth

0.3 Kbps
modem

9.6 Kbps
modem

300 Kbps
share of T1 line*

27%

* Though most PCs and servers ship with 100 Mbps

networking interfaces, actual Internet throughput
remains limited by corporate Internet connections

Bandwidth continues to lag processing

and storage technologies
1000000
160000
60000
30000
10000
4000
3200

100000
10000
1000

500
120

100
40

10
1
1975

10 9.6
2.4
1

1980

1985

1000

100

33
20 28
19.2

600

Moores Law

300

56

1990

1995

2000

2005

Performance (MIPS)
Storage (Mbytes)
Bandwidth (Kbps)

Todays last-mile bottlenecks

X Internet moves beyond bandwidths

limits
1000000

X Internet
160000
60000
30000
10000
4000
3200

100000
10000

Client/server

1000

500
120

100
40

10
1
1975

10 9.6
2.4
1

1980

1985

Mainframes and
Green screens

1000

100

33
20 28
19.2

600

Moores Law

300

56

1990

1995

The Web

2000

2005

Performance (MIPS)
Storage (Mbytes)
Bandwidth (Kbps)

What is the X Internet?

The X Internet refers to two Xs

An executable Internet that

supplants todays Web
An extended Internet that
connects to the real world

Executable Internet builds

conversations

Endpoints

Server

The Web only provides answers

How much is in my account?

Account
summary

The Web

The executable Net creates a

conversation

What should I do with my account?

Financial services tools (executables)
BUY ITNOW

Two-way conversation about my account

The executable
Internet

Isnt this just Java?

Java is a piece of some solutions
But there are other alternatives

Extended Internet -- an Internet of things

Extended
endpoints

Endpoints
Server

The X Internet connects digital to physical

Internet
computers

Digital

Internet
users

Vehicles

Telephones

Buildings

Physical

WhereNet devices simplify supply

logistics

Temp: 52 F
Fuel: 1/2 tank
Door: Closed

Tag is integrated with door, fuel, and temperature

sensors
Sensor data is transmitted every few minutes

WhereNet devices simplify supply

logistics
Yard inventory is
conveyed to users
through maps and
reports

Colors indicate trailer status

and alert conditions

Early adopters of X Internet in

developing nations

X Internet pioneers in developing nations

Hanssem Kitchen Ware (China)
EAN International
(www.autoidcenter.org)
CK Tang Department Store
(Malaysia)

UNCTAD/Savi Technology
partnership

Case study: CEMEX (Mexico)

GPS-enabled truck fleet

20-minute delivery window
Savings: $100 million

When will these changes take

hold?

The three waves of X Internet adoption

High 5

Finance

Ut ilit ies
Telecom

Healt hcare

Product fit
Bits-to-atoms
ratio in end products
Intangibility of
supply chain assets

Aerospace
Food and
agricult ure

Const ruct ion

First wave
of adopt ion
(2001-2003)

Logist ics
Media

Second wave
of adopt ion
(2004-2006)

High-tech
Pet rochemicals
Automot ive
Paper
Indust rial equipment

Third wave
of adopt ion
(2007+)

Heavy indust ries

Consumer goods
Low 1

1
Low

Industry readiness
Value chain simplicity
Propensity to adopt cross-firm apps

5
High

X Internet devices and spending

Devices
(billions)

Spend
(US$ trillions)

15

$3

10

$2

$1
Spend

Devices

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Summary
The executable Net will supplant the Web
The extended Net will connect digital
to physical

The X Internet will let businesses in

developing nations do more with what
they have

Thank you

Navi Radjou

Eroica Howard

nradjou@forrester.com
ehoward@forrester.com
+1 617/613-6119

+1 617/613-6295

www.forrester.com