Probability Concepts

In Planning

Recurrence Interval
The recurrence interval is defined as the average interval
in years between the occurrence of a flood of specified
magnitude and an equal or larger flood. The mth largest
flood in a data series has been equalled or exceeded m
times in the period of record, N yr, and the best estimate
of its recurrence interval tp is
tp = (N + 1)/m
If an event has a true recurrence interval of tp yr, then the
probability P that it will be equalled or exceeded in any
one year is
P= 1/ tp

Since the only possibilities are that the event will or will not
occur in any year, the probability that it will not occur in a given
year is 1 P. From the principles of probability, the probability J
that at least one event which equals or exceeds the tp-yr event
will occur in any series of N yr is
J = 1 (1 P)N

Partial Duration Series

The annual series is criticized on the basis that the second
highest flood in some years will exceed annual floods which are
included in the series. The partial duration series is sometimes
suggested as substitute. The two series gives nearly the same
recurrence intervals for the larger floods, but the partial
duration series will show higher flows for the shorter recurrence
intervals.

Flood Formulas
Qp = cAn
The exponent n is often taken as 0.5, indicating that the flood
peaks vary inversely with the square root of drainage area.
Most flood formulas assume that flood-peak magnitude is a
function of drainage area and many formulas include such
factors as basin shape and mean annual precipitation in an
attempt to minimize the variations in the coefficient c.

Rainfall Frequency
Frequency analysis of rainfall is complicated by the fact that one
may be concerned with rainfall of various durations and over
various areas. Most analyses are for rainfall of various durations
at a single station. Each duration provides data which are
analysed for frequency and combined into a family of curves.

Rainfall Formulas
The relation between rainfall intensity i and duration tR
has often been expressed by formulas such as :
i = k/ tnR
where the constants k and n are regional characteristics.

Probable Maximum Floods

Since about 1940, the spillways of many major dams have been
designed to discharge the probable maximum flood. The
magnitude of this flood is determined by meteorological
estimate of the physical limit of rainfall over the drainage basin.

Drought
Drought is often defined in terms of a fixed period of time with
less than some minimum amount of rainfall. Even when applied
to a specified area and crop, such a definition is far from
adequate since the critical time and rainfall depend on the stage
of crop development, initial moisture content of the soil,
temperature and wind during the drought period and other
factors.

Drought Frequency
If drought can be defined in specific terms for a particular
project , drought frequency can be analyzed in the same manner
as flood frequency. It is also possible to prepare generalized
frequency curves of low flow. These curves were constructed by
determining the minimum flow each year during periods of
various lengths and the data for each period length were plotted
as a frequency curves.

Synthetic Streamflow
It is often important to know something of the
probability of floods or droughts more severe than anything
observed on a stream.
On the assumption that streamflow is essentially a
random variable, it is possible to develop a synthetic flow record
by statistical methods. Such records can be any desired length
and may well include flow sequences more critical than any in
the observed record.

Stochastic analysis should be used to generate a number

of synthetic flow traces of length equal to the expected useful
life of the project under study. Each trace can then be analyzed
to determine the required storage for the project demand.