GROUP 7

Weibulls model and

System Reliability

Weibull model
The Weibull distribution is word wide used to model Life Data.
The distribution can handle increasing, decreasing or constant
failure-rates and can be created for data with and without
suspensions (non-failures).
It is flexible and fits to a wide range of data, including Normal
distributed data.
The Weibull distribution is one of the most commonly used
distributions in Reliability
It gains in popularity for reliability work, particularly in the area of
mechanical engineering because of the many shapes it attains for
various values of reliability, due to its inherent versatility.

Weibull analysis includes:

Plotting the data and interpreting the plot
Failure forecasting and prediction
Evaluating corrective action plans
Test substantiation for new designs with
minimum cost
Maintenance planning and cost effective replacement strategies

 Spare parts forecasting

Warranty analysis and support cost predictions

Controlling production processes

Calibration of complex design systems, i.e., CAD\CAM, finite

analysis, etc.

Recommendations to management in response to service

problems

Weibulls formulae:

Data Requirements

Plotting Procedures

Life data that is relevant to Order data from lowest to

the failure mode is
highest failure time
critical
Individual Data

Estimate percentage
failing before each failure
time (median ranks)

Total Units

Draw best line fit through

data points plotted on
Weibull paper

Number of observed
failures

Estimate weibull
parameters

Item Time to Failure

Grouped Data
Total Units
Number of groups

Failure types include:

Development, production and service
Mechanical, electronic, materials, and human failures
Nature: lightning strikes, foreign object damage, human error,
woodpecker holes in power poles
Quality control, design deficiencies, defective material
Warranty claims

Advantages:
The primary advantage of Weibull analysis is the ability to provide
reasonably accurate failure analysis and failure forecasts with
extremely small samples
Another advantage of Weibull analysis is that it provides a simple and
useful graphical plot of the failure data.
The data plot is extremely important to the engineer and to the
manager

System reliability
As products become more complex (have more
components), the chance that they will not function
increases.
The method of arranging the components affects
reliability of the entire system.

the

Components can be arranged in series, parallel, or a

combination.

Series System
For a series systems, the reliability is
the product of the individual
components.
1
2
n
RS = R1 R2 ... Rn
As components are added to the series,
the system reliability decreases.

Parallel system
1
2
n

Rs = 1 - (1 - R1) (1 - R2)... (1 - Rn)

When a component does not function, the

product continues to function, using another
component, until all parallel components do
not function.

Series-Parallel System
C
RA

RB

RC

RD
D

C
RC

Convert to equivalent series system

RA

RB

RD
C

RC = 1 (1-RC)(1-RC)

Design
The most important aspect of reliability
is the design.
It should be as simple as possible.
The fewer the number of components,
the greater the reliability.
Another way of achieving reliability is
to have a backup or redundant
component (parallel component).

Design
Reliability can be achieved by
overdesign.
The use of large factors of safety can
increase the reliability of a product.
When an unreliable product can lead
to a fatality or substantial financial
loss, a fail-safe type of device should
be used.
The maintenance of the system is an

Production
The second most important aspect of
reliability is the production process.
Emphasis should be placed on those
components which are least reliable.

Transportation
The third most important aspect of reliability
is the transportation.
Packaging
Shipment

Performance of the product by the customer is

the final evaluation.
Good packaging techniques and shipment
evaluation are essential.

THANK YOU