Nanyang Technological University

School of Civil and Environmental Engineering

FINAL YEAR PROJECT

Prediction of
Total Bed-Material Load
in Alluvial Streams
LE THU HIEN
Environmental Engineering

Presented by

November 11, 2009

Presentation Outline

Project introduction
Past studies
Methodology
Data Sources
Dimensional Analysis
Regression Analysis
Evaluation and Comparison
Conclusion
Le Thu Hien

INTRODUCTION
BACK GROUND
Sediment transport is known as one of many problems to
rivers and natural streams
Monitoring the effect of sediment discharge on alluvial
stream is a challenge to many scientists and engineers
Modeling and forecasting the sediment rate in rivers is an
important stage

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INTRODUCTION
OBJECTIVE
Formulate an equation to predict the rate of
sediment discharge in alluvial streams
Minimize the inaccuracy and amend any
unreliable assumptions of other previous studies

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PAST STUDY
SEDIMENT DISCHARGE RATE
Indirect definition
The sum of two separated elements: bed load and
suspended load

Direct definition
Consider Total Bed Material Load (TBML) as the
most significant part
Wash load is neglected in natural rivers

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PAST STUDY
Sediment discharge vs.
Flow discharge
Discontinuous
Double valued

Sediment discharge vs.

Mean Velocity
Continuous
Single valued

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PAST STUDY
Kennedy & Karims prediction model

Problems
Unreliable parameters
Insufficient data source
Inappropriate assumptions
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METHODOLOGY
Dimensional Analysis
Regression Analysis
Evaluation and Discussion

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DATA SOURCES
Collected by William R. Brownlie from field
investigation
Including 24 flows and 1764 records
Sediment discharge rate was given in form of
Cppm =Qs/(Qs + Q) and can be obtained by

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DIMENSIONAL ANALYSIS

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DIMENSIONAL ANALYSIS
Selection of parameters
Physical consideration
Mean velocity should be used instead of Water discharge
Water - sediments inter-relationship should be taken into
consideration
Stream power includes the incipient motion, which is not
a reliable factor should be discarded
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DIMENSIONAL ANALYSIS

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DIMENSIONAL ANALYSIS
Selection of parameters
Regression conditions
High correlation between dependent variable and
independent variables
Low correlation between independent variables

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DIMENSIONAL ANALYSIS
Correlation between variables

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DIMENSIONAL ANALYSIS
Selection of parameters
Chosen parameters
Dependent: P20
Independent: (P2, P4, P8 )
(P2, P5 , P8 )
(P7, P4, P8 )
(P7, P5 , P8 )

Correlation was found in each data set at

specific location
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DIMENSIONAL ANALYSIS
Selection of parameters
Correlation was computed in each data set at
specific location

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REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Use of MINITAB application
Multiple and multilevel regression
Reliability of the model

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REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Three approaches
Regression on all data
Regression on data at specific location
Regression on all data with the neglection of
abnormal and unreliable value

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REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Approach 1:
Regression on all data

Model 1: ln(P20) = 0 + 1ln(P2) + 2ln(P4) + 3ln(P8)

Model 2: ln(P20) = 0 + 1ln(P2) + 2ln(P4) + 3ln(P8) + 4ln(P2) * ln(P4)

Model 3: ln(P20) = 0 + 1ln(P2) + 2ln(P4) + 3ln(P8) + 5ln(P4) * ln(P8)

Model 4: ln(P20) = 0 + 1ln(P2) + 2ln(P4) + 3ln(P8) + 6ln(P8) * ln(P2)

Model 5: ln(P20) = 0 + 1ln(P2) + 2ln(P4) + 3ln(P8) + 7ln(P2) * ln(P4) * ln(P8)

Model 6: ln(P20) = 0 + 1ln(P2) + 2ln(P4) + 3ln(P8)

+ 4ln(P2) * ln(P4) + 5ln(P4) * ln(P8) + 6ln(P8) * ln(P2)
+ 7ln(P2) * ln(P4) * ln(P8)

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REGRESSION ANALYSIS

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REGRESSION ANALYSIS

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REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Approach 2:
Regression on data at specific location
Use only Model 2 and Model 6 above
Coefficients are determined using normal distribution

Results
Model 2 has more consistent coefficients
Model 6 has more varied coefficients

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REGRESSION ANALYSIS

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REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Approach 3:
Regression on all data except for abnormal and
unreliable records
Data set 4 and 23 are discarded
Some of abnormal points picked from the previous
graph are also ignored

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REGRESSION ANALYSIS

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EVALUATION & COMPARISON

RESULTS
Coefficients are almost consistent in magnitude and signs
High reliability and fitness: very high R-square value

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EVALUATION & COMPARISON

DISCUSSION
All models could be used to predict sediment discharge
Approach 2 is less accurate compared to other two
Approach 3 can discard abnormal records and limit the
smaller range

Approach 1

Approach 2

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Approach
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EVALUATION & COMPARISON

RECOMMENDATIONS
Model 3 is most suitable and reliable to use in normal
cases
High accurate range applied to the model: P20 from
(-3.5 ~ 5.0)
Errors of measurement made by human and equipments
should be avoided as much as possible to increase the
reliability of prediction

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EVALUATION & COMPARISON

comparison
Kennedy & Karim s prediction
Same physical consideration: Mean velocity, Shear
velocity & sediment size
Critical shear velocity exceed the mean velocity, make the
regression terms not applicable to use

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CONCLUSION
A model of sediment load has been computed
To help civil and hydraulic engineers to predict the sediment
discharge in natural systems
To be a tool in further design and controlling of streams problems

Advantages
More accurate than most of the previous studies, even not yet
100% but still it is acceptable
Applicable in very wide range of flow, except for laboratory range

Le Thu Hien

Nanyang Technological University

School of Civil and Environmental Engineering

THANK
YOU
Supervisor: Assoc Prof Cheng Nian Sheng
Moderator: Assoc Prof Lim Siow Yong
Le Thu Hien