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derivatives management
Christophe MICHEL
Head of RCCAD Quantitative Research
Contents
02
13
19
26
31
Introduction to LVA
Introduction to CVA
Impact of CSA on CVA
A New Pricing Framework
Centralized Risk Management
Introduction to LVA
Pricing principle
Vt f B f t , T Ft
Collateral Impact
In case of collateral agreement, additional flows are to be taken into account in the valuation process.
Indeed, to be posted a collateral has to be funded and remunerated with the funding rate, on the other hand,
the collateral posted is remunerated with a given collateral rate described within the collateral agreement.
The additional flows are all differentials of interest generated by the difference between funding and
collateral rates applied to the collateral amount posted.
These additional flows have to be funded and their price is straightforward as soon as we know their forecasted
value.
t3
t0
t1
t2
t4
t5
t6
Future derivative value
C t3 rf t3 rc t3 3
In general, the collateral amount to be posted is directly deduced from the value of the collateralized
derivative i.e. including additional interest flows, say Vc, which is different from the value of the unsecured
derivative (Vf).
Hence, the value of a collateralized derivative depends upon this value: were facing an implicit problem.
C t Vt c
In this special case, under model assumptions, one can show that the price of a collateralised contract is
obtained by discounting with the collateral remuneration rate instead of the funding rate.
For a single flow, we can formally write:
Time t value of the future flow in a given
Currency including collateral
additionaml flows
Vt c Bc t , T Ft
Ct
0 else
In this case, the collateral impact remains implicit but cannot be explicitly solved like in the standard case.
Pricing Method
To treat the general case, one has to solve a high dimensional optimal control problem.
This is generally not do-able in practice but it is well approximated by Monte Carlo simulation method
Market data are diffused on simulated paths
On each node of the simulation the Mark-to-Market of each product included in the collateral agreement are approximated
The collateral amount to be posted on each node can then be deduced
Additional flows resulting from collateral agreement can then be evaluated on each node
The average of their present value approximate the LVA impact
Note that the collateral impact crucially depends upon the global portfolio within the collateral contract
and cannot be treated on a stand alone basis. A contribution to the global adjustment can be computed.
Pre-crisis
Bor rates were market convention for discounting all trades, independently on the counterparty, CSA, etc
Implicit assumptions
If the counterparty was uncollateralised, CA-CIB could lend/borrow (unsecured) @ Bor flat
If the counterparty was collateralised, it meant the interest paid on the collateral posted/received was Bor (which is consistent with
interest - mainly OIS as defined in the CSA)
Historically
Access to liquidity was taken as granted
Source: Bloomberg
10
11
+
PV
Bank posts collateral and receives interest
Threshold
This is the exposure amount below which collateral is not required (the threshold represents an amount of
uncollateralized exposure). A threshold of zero implies that any exposure is collateralized
12
13
What is a standard CSA ? Pay attention to the detail when negotiating CSA terms
No CSA
Unilateral CSA (can be unilateral in our favour; often
supranational institutions require an unilateral CSA in their
favour)
CSA with very high threshold 50-100M threshold will
impact pricing
CSA with rating triggers (example: CA-CIB needed to
post an independent amount to EIB due to the S&P rating
action)
Sub-optimal CSAs negative spreads on cash collateral,
securities received that cant be re-hypothecated
Introduction to CVA
15
To be or not to be paid ?
The Credit Value Adjustment appears in the pricing framework when a credit risk is taken into account.
Formally, one can explicit this risk by multiplying each payment flow by the following function:
In case of a counterparty default at time T, the key question is to measure the exposure.
A priori, the exposure is the sum of all positive mark to market of each transaction remaining at time T
with this counterparty.
In case of netting agreement with the counterparty, the exposure becomes the sum of all netted positive
mark to market of each set of transactions within each netting agreement contract.
A classical formula
A classical CVA formula can be expressed as Maturity
the amount of discounted future Expected Losses
CVA LGD *
t 0
Default Probability
16
Default Probability
Implied from CDS spreads (market-implied) or,
Historical default probabilities
17
Risk parameters:
Peak Exposure: Maximum of the MtM of the transaction over its lifespan, given a high confidence level (VaR
95%)
Loan Equivalent: Average EPE over time (measure to determine risk equivalent in terms of loan for economic
capital calculation)
Tail Credit Risk (CVaR): average of 5% maximum potential losses
10y
10yEUR
EURIRS
IRSCA-CIB
CA-CIBReceives
ReceivesFixed
Fixed2.3%
2.3%
18
CVA hedges are initiated in order to offset future CVA P&L volatility for CA-CIB
Due to portfolio MTM movements (IR, FX, Credit Hedges)
Due to counterparty CDS Spread Changes (Credit Hedges)
At inception: CVA P&L is flat, Hedge P&L is flat:
1. CDS spreads increase: CVA increases (Loss) versus Hedge P&L (Gain)
2. CDS spreads decrease: CVA decrease (Gain) versus Hedge P&L (Loss)
3. CDS spreads stay static: Negative carry on Hedge (Loss) is offset against positive carry of CVA (Gain)
Debit Value Adjustment (DVA) is the CVA seen from the counterparty. To take it into account allows symmetrical
views on the shared portfolio.
19
CSA features are built into EPE simulations and consequently have an impact on CVA
Collateral features
Trade description
Start date:
10 Apr 2012
Unilateral vs Bilateral
Maturity:
10Y
Threshold
Notional:
EUR 100M
Frequency
CA-CIB receives:
Currency
CA-CIB pays:
Counterpart:
XXX
5Y cds:
143bps
Internal rating:
21
Peak exposure:
9 508 071
Market CVA:
Historical CVA:
9 942
CSA in place
Threshold: 0
Bilateral
MTA: 0
Frequency: daily
Currency: EUR
Peak exposure:
1 378 356
Market CVA:
Historical CVA:
1 850
22
Threshold: 0
Bilateral
MTA: 0
Frequency: weekly
Currency: EUR
Peak exposure:
1 704 987
Market CVA:
33 938
Historical CVA:
2 252
Threshold: 0
Bilateral
MTA: 0
Frequency: daily
Currency: EUR
Peak exposure:
1 378 356
Market CVA:
Historical CVA:
1 850
23
Threshold: 500K
Bilateral
MTA: 0
Frequency: daily
Currency: EUR
Peak exposure:
1 878 356
Market CVA:
Historical CVA:
Threshold: 0
Bilateral
MTA: 0
Frequency: daily
Currency: EUR
Peak exposure:
1 378 356
Market CVA:
Historical CVA:
1 850
24
Trade description
Start date:
10 Apr 2012
Maturity:
10Y
Unilateral vs Bilateral
Notional:
EUR 100M
Threshold
EURUSD:
1.3091
Frequency
CA-CIB pays:
Currency
CA-CIB receives:
Notional exchange:
Counterparty
Name:
XXX
5Y cds:
143bps
Internal rating:
25
26
Peak exposure:
94 738 968
Market CVA:
1 718 224
(18bps p.a)
Historical CVA:
192 376
(2 bps p.a)
Threshold: 0
Bilateral
MTA: 0
Frequency: daily
Currency: EUR
Peak exposure:
4 181 994
Market CVA:
227 864
Historical CVA:
22 381
Collecting Information
Market Information
In the new pricing framework, market prices remain of course a central source of information but one has to
interpret them consistently.
A price is at least dependent with the CSA of the product priced and when one observe the price of an OTC
product on a screen the question of the implicit CSA of this price has to be solved.
To fix this problem, a standardization of market practice arise
Standard swap are assumed cleared with a collateral in the currency of the swap with a collateral remuneration at
OIS rate.
Multi-currency products are often assumed collateralized in USD with a collateral remuneration at USDOIS rate.
Physical settlement swaption quotation often assumes the underlying swap to be a standard swap and quotes a
forward premium in order to avoid the LVA impact on the discounted premium.
Once the implicit CSA question is answered, it becomes possible to strip from market prices cleaned
market data (IR curves per tenor, FX forward, default probabilities, inflation forward, liquid volatilities, etc)
28
Forecasting Data
Diffusion Data
In addition to market data and client data, we have seen that most of xVA are linked to global portfolio
measures based on Monte Carlo simulations.
Once the diffusion model is defined, its calibration can partly be implicit (calibration on a set of market
prices) but will mainly linked to historical market behaviour.
Like for any diffusion model design for structured derivatives pricing, the calibration process is dependent
with the sophistication of the diffusion process (from a theoretical point of view) and availability of implicit
and historical information.
A key point to focus on is the joint behaviour between all class of market risks (lets say correlation to
simplify) implicitly defined in the diffusion process. It is indeed well known that this point will drive market risk
netting from the global portfolio point of view.
29
30
Raw
Market Data
Cleaned
Market Data
Internal
Client
Portfolio
Internal
Client
Data
Data Forecasting
Engine
Global Simulation
Engine
Bilateral
Bilateral
CSA
CSAInput
Input
++
Product Description
(Termsheet)
Client
t0
t1
t2
t3
t4
Portfolio
Portfolioadjustment
adjustment
(CVA,
DVA,
(CVA, DVA,FVA,
FVA,
non
standard
non standardLVA)
LVA)
t5
t6
Stand-Alone
Pricing Engine
Stand
Standalone
alonePrice
Price
In practice, an incremental portfolio value adjustment relating to the new trade is used. It corresponds to the
differential of portfolio value adjustment with and without the deal.
This incremental value can either be positive or negative and a pricing policy is to be defined.
Adjustment Breakdown
The global portfolio value adjustment is made with several sources of risks (credit, liquidity, funding) and with
several market data qualities (pure market data versus forecasted data).
To look into these, it is meaningful to evaluate the global portfolio value adjustment breakdown based on
those different sources of risk and data qualities.
Similarly, this breakdown can be computed for incremental portfolio value adjustments at the deal level.
31
Hedging Risks
Stand-alone Value Risk Management
A priori, the stand-alone product value can be hedged trading desk per trading desk without particular need
of centralisation.
Nevertheless, the multiplicity of CSA may induce not so material additional sources of risks for trading
desks (like cross-currency basis swap margin risks) which can pollute trading desk risk management and
which could be centralised.
We have to keep in mind that any transaction has, from valuation and risk management point of view, a
stand-alone part and a portfolio part. The implicit CSA of the stand-alone part of the deal isnt necessarily
the actual CSA of the deal.
Funding Risk
Funding risk could in theory be managed on a stand-alone basis since this risk isnt explicitly linked to the
portfolio view.
But this risk cant be directly risk managed in the market.
Hence, this risk has to be risk managed jointly with ALM. Indeed, the stake is the remuneration or the
charge of this adjustment. This has to be made consistently with the way these remuneration/charge are
monetised by ALM.
Global simulation tools can of course be very used to obtain a complete view of the distribution of funding
needs at any future maturity (expectation, standard deviations, of funding needs including collateral
simulation).
33
Hedging Risks
Portfolio Adjustment Value Risk Management
By definition, this adjustment has to be centrally risk-managed. Indeed:
The value to risk manage make sense at the portfolio level only.
Global metrics to evaluate (EPE) are time consuming and depend upon a wide range of market data then standard
complete local management is just numerically impossible and alternative risk management strategies has to be
developed.
Some adjustments are based on forecasted/mapped data which as to be specifically risk managed
At the centralized level, impacts of global events like defaults, CSA changes, Funding changes can be
anticipated, studied and quantified.
Conversely, a centralized desk can be pro-active on all portfolio-linked risks:
CSA change
Waives/Further discounted counterparties (to take into account liquidity providers or to be aligned with the Banks
business strategy.
Wrong way / Right way risk.
RWA management
A centralised desk ensure a unique and consistent FO view internally and externally.
34
Basel II
Capital CCR only covers default risk
Internal Ratings-Based approach: Internal assessment of default risk via internal probability of default and LGD
No capital requirement for MTM loss due to change in counterparty credit spread
EPE: counterparty exposure estimated using non-stressed market data, on a 1Y horizon
Basel III
Basel III Capital CCR = Capital Default (Basel II) + Capital CVA
Capital CVA: additional Capital requirement for MtM loss due to change in counterparty credit spread
Capital CVA: Market Risk capital charge estimated using stressed VaR on credit instruments
EPE: counterparty exposure estimated under stressed parameters on the full maturity
CVA VaR is calculated Net of Eligible Hedges
Other adjustments:
35
36
37
38
Disclaimer
39
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