Extrapolation Technique Summarized

The extrapolation technique (aka curve fitting) is a simplistic model that

uses past gross population trends to project future population levels.
The defining characteristics of trend extrapolation is that future values
of any variable are determined solely by its historical values. (SLPP, p.
161 emphasis added)
Basic Procedure:
1) Identify overall past trend and fit proper curve
2) Project future populations based upon your chosen curve
We use a linear equation for most of these equations. A linear
transformation is required to make projections for all but the Parabolic
Curve.
Advantages: 1) Low data requirements
2) Very easy methodology
3) 1+2 = Low resource requirements (money, skills, etc.)
Disadvantages: 1) Uses only aggregate data
2) Assumes that past trends will predict the future

Visualizing the Technique

The Curves to Be Fit

Linear Curve: Plots a straight line based on the formula:

Y = a + bX
Geometric Curve: Plots a curve based upon a rate of compounding
growth over discrete intervals via the formula:
Y = aebX
Parabolic (Polynomial) Curve: A curve with one bend and a
constantly changing slope. Formula: Y = a + bX + cX2
Modified Exponential Curve*: An asymptotic growth curve that
recognizes that a region will reach an upper limit of growth. It takes
the form:
Y = c + abX
Gompertz Curve*: Describes a growth pattern that is quite slow,
increases for a time, and then tapers off as the population approaches
a growth limit. Form: Y = c(a) exp (bX)
Logistic Curve*: Similar to the Gompertz Curve, this is useful for
describing phenomena that grow slowly at first, increase rapidly, and
then slow with approach to a growth limit.
Y = (c + abX)-1
* = Asymptotic Curves

The Linear Curve (Y = a + bX)

Fits a straight line to population data. The growth rate is assumed to
be constant, with non-compounding incremental growth. Calculated
exactly the same as using linear regression (least-squares criterion).
Advantages:
--Simplest curve
--Most widely used
--Useful for slow or non-growth areas
Disadvantages:
--Rarely appropriate to demographic data
Example:
Y = 55,000 + 6,000(X)
In plain language, this equation tells us that for each year that passes,
we can project an additional 6,000 people will be added to the
population. So, in 10 years we would project 60,000 more people
using this equation (6,000 * 10).
Evaluation: Generally used as a staring point for curve fitting.

Manatee County Linear Curve

Year

Actual Data

Projection

1950

34,704

21,421

1960

69,168

67,862

1970

97,115

114,303

1980

148,442

160,743

1990

211,707

207,184

2000

264,002

253,625

2010

300,066

2020

346,507

2030

392,948

Y Int

-9034568.9

Slope

4644.09714

The Geometric Curve (Y = aebX)

In this curve, a growth rate is assumed to be compounded at set

intervals using a constant growth rate. To transform this equation
into a linear equation, we use logarithms.
Advantages:
--Assumes a constant rate of growth
--Still simple to use
Disadvantage:
--Does not take into account a growth limit
Example:
Y = 55,000 * (1.00 + 0.06)X
In plain language, this equation tells us that we have a 6% growth
rate. After one year we project a population of 58,300. After 10
years we would project a population of 98,497.
Evaluation: Pretty good for short term fast-growing areas.
However, over the long-run, this curve usually generates
unrealistically high numbers.

Manatee County Geometric Curve

Year

Actual Data

Log of
Pop

Log Proj

Projection

1950

34,704

4.5404

4.6158

41,281

1960

69,168

4.8399

4.7885

61,454

1970

97,115

4.9873

4.9613

91,484

1980

148,442

5.1716

5.1341

136,189

1990

211,707

5.3257

5.3069

202,741

2000

264,002

5.4216

5.4797

301,813

2010

5.6525

449,298

2020

5.8253

668,855

2030

5.9981

995,702

Y Int

(29.080)

Slope

0.0173

The Parabolic Curve (Y = a + bX + cX2)

Generally has a constantly changing slope and one bend. Very
similar to the Linear Curve except for the additional parameter (c).
Growing very quickly when c > 0, declining quickly when c < 0.
Advantage:
--Models fast growing areas
Disadvantages:
--Poor for long range projections (familiar refrain?)
--No Growth Limit
--More complex
Example:
Y = 43.46 + 8.78(X) + 0.581(X2)
When X=0, Y =43.46. When X = 6, Y = 117.1
Evaluation: Exactly the same as the Geometric Curve; good for
fast growing areas, but poor over the long run.

Manatee County Parabolic Curve

Even Number of
Observations
Year

Actual
Data

Product of
Index
Value

Index
Squared

Index and
Index ^4 Observed

Column F
Squared

Projection

1950

34,704

-5

25

625

-173520

867600 35,136

1960

69,168

-3

81

-207504

622512 65,118

1970

97,115

-1

-97115

97115 103,330

1980

148,442

148442

148442 149,771

1990

211,707

81

635121

1905363 204,441

2000

264,002

25

625

1320010

6600050 267,341

2010

49

2401

338,471

2020

81

6561

417,830

2030

11

121

14641

505,419

Modified Exponential Curve (Y = c + abX )

The first of the Asymptotic Curves. Takes into account an upper or
lower limit when computing projected values. The asymptote can be
derived from local analysis or supplied by the model itself.
Advantage:
--Growth limit is introduced
--Best fitting growth limit
Disadvantage:
--Much more complex calculations
--Misleading Growth limit (high and low)
Example:
Yc = 114 - 64(0.75)X
The growth limit is 114. The curve takes into account the number of
time periods and as X gets larger the closer you get to the Growth
limit. When X = 0, Y = 50; when X = 2, Y = 78, etc.
Evaluation: This curve largely depends upon the growth limit. If
the limit is reasonable, then the curve can be a good one. Also, the
ability to calculate the growth limit within the model is very useful.

Manatee County Modified Exponential Curve

Year

Total

Index

Actual Data

Projection

1950

34,704

38,242

1960

69,168

65,630

1970

97,115

100,535

1980

148,442

145,022

1990

211,707

201,722

2000

264,002

273,987

2010

366,090

2020

483,476

2030

633,087
825,138

The Gompertz Curve (Y = c(a) exp (bX))

Describes a growth pattern that is initially quite slow, increases for
a period and then tapers off. Like the Mod Exp curve, the upper limit
can be assumed or derived by the model.
Advantage:
--Reflects very common growth patterns
Disadvantages:
--Getting even more complex
--Misleading growth limit (limit can be high or low)
Example:
log Yc = 2.699 - 1.056(0.9221)X
The equation itself is tough to understand. When X = 0, Log Y =
1.64, so Y = 44.0 (via antilog calculation).
Note: Antilog of 2.699 is 500 (the growth limit)
Evaluation: A very useful curve that can be fitted to all kinds of
growth patterns. However, as with the previous curve, using an
assumed growth limit can be problematic unless it is reasonable and
makes sense for the case at hand.

Manatee County Gompertz Curve

Year

Total

Index

Actual

Log of

Log of

Data

Obs Value Proj

Projection

1950

34,704

4.5404

4.5788

37,910

1960

69,168

4.8399

4.8015

63,319

1970

97,115

4.9873

4.9952

98,906

1980

148,442

5.1716

5.1636

145,754

1990

211,707

5.3257

5.3100

204,186

2000

264,002

5.4216

5.4373

273,726

2010

5.5480

353,169

2020

5.6442

440,755

2030

5.7278

534,378

825,138

The Logistic Curve (Y = (c + abX)-1 )

VERY similar to the Mod Exp and the Gompertz curves, except
that we are taking the reciprocals of the observed values. A very
popular curve.
Advantages:
--Has proven to be a good projection tool
--Considered a bit more stable than the Gompertz curve
Disadvantages:
--Complex!
--Hard to interpret the formula
Example:
Yc-1 = 0.0020 + 0.217(0.8015)X
Another difficult to interpret equation. When X = 0, Y = 42.1. When
X = 6, Y = 128.9.
Note: Reciprocal of .002 is 500 (GL)
Evaluation: Considered to be the best of the extrapolation
curves. It reflects a well-known growth pattern. It is more stable
than the Gompertz curve and it does not have a misleading growth
limit.

Manatee County Logistic Curve

Year

Total

Index

Actual

Recip of

Log of

Data

Observd

Proj

Projection

1950

34,704

0.00002882 0.000026959

37,093

1960

69,168

0.00001446 0.000016313

61,300

1970

97,115

0.00001030 0.000010246

97,601

1980

148,442

0.00000674 0.000006788

147,321

1990

211,707

0.00000472 0.000004817

207,588

2000

264,002

0.00000379 0.000003694

270,700

2010

0.000003054

327,434

2020

0.000002689

371,848

2030

0.000002481

403,002

The Curve Fitting Procedure

1) Plot the data in a chart
2) Eyeball the data: Identify and eliminate erroneous data;
Identify past population trends; Eliminate curves that dont fit the
data
3) Process the data using the chosen curves, Plot your results in
charts
4) Use quantitative procedures to identify best-fitting curves
5) Make your choice of forecast based upon a combination of
quantitative and qualitative evaluations of the various
projections
Many issues affect how the fit of the various curves:
--Choice of the Base Period, including the Base Year
--Calibration of projections
--Use of Growth Limits

Understanding Extrapolation

One basic principle when using the the extrapolation technique

effectively is:
The choice of the Base Period can have a significant
impact upon the projection generated.
In the Manatee County example, if we use a varying Base
Period and the Lin Reg method, we get the following results:
Actual Data
1970

97,115

1980

148,442

1990

211,707

2000

264,002

1920-2000

1950-2000

1980-2000

2010

253,817

300,066

323,610

2020

284,749

346,507

381,390

2030

315,680

392,948

439,170

Improving Extrapolation Projections

through Calibration

The Linear Curve also helps to illustrate one improvement to the

extrapolation technique:
Oftentimes analysts calibrate their model to fit the projection to
the observed data.
Calibration is very simply an adjustment that makes the projected
population consistent with the launch year population.
Calibration is calculated by subtracting the estimated population from the
observed population in the Launch Year (Observed Estimated).
In our Manatee County example, the adjustment for BY1950 is:
Observed Pop 2000:
264,002
Estimated Pop 2000:
253,625
Calibration:
+10,377
This figure is then added to all subsequent projections using this mixture
of curve type (Lin Reg) and base period (1950-2000)
Calibration is typically used with the Lin Regression technique, but can
be used in others as well.

Improving Extrapolation Projections

through Upper Limits

The three asymptotic curves (Mod Exp, Gompertz, Logistic) have

two derivations that offer an opportunity to fine tune our
projections :
1) Under one approach the model itself calculates a limit to
population growth.
2) Alternatively the analyst can set an upper limit for the
population.
This upper limit can be generated by a carrying capacity analysis
(as in Monroe County (the Keys)) or from some other study that
generates an upper population bound.
The concept of growth limits has been found to be very useful in
projections as populations cannot grow infinitely there is some
limit to their growth.
In incorporating this concept into the extrapolation technique there
is evidence that better projections are generated.

Manatee County Example

BP 1950-2000

Limit Calculated by Model

Upper Limit Assumed

To be 1.2 Million People