Hypothesis

Prof.Dr.Syarif Husin Lubis

PPSDKG, FSK
Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia

Hypothesis testing
When interpreting many kinds of data, you need to reach a decision.

In experiment of a new drug, you need to decide

whether the drug is effective and should be
recommended for all patients.

In a study comparing two laboratory tests,

you need to decide which procedure to
recommend

Hypothesis testing
is an Approach
that helps you make decision
after analyzing data

The steps in hypotesis testing

1. Develop Null Hypothesis --Ho
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

Decide
= level of significance
Calculate the value of statistical test
Decide whether significance /non-significance
Ho rejected
or
not-rejected
Conclusion

Example Null Hypothesis Ho

The mean response to treatment being tested is equal
to the mean response the placebo in the control group
OR
There is no different the treatment being tested with the
placebo given to the control group

A test statistic
must be chosen that will summarize
the information in the sample
that is relevant
to the hypothesis.
In the example given above,
it might be
the numerical difference
between the two sample means, X1 X2.

Among all the sets

of possible values
we must choose one
that we think represents
the most extreme evidence
against the hypothesis.
That is called
the critical region
of the test statistic.

Hypothesis
and
objective

A hypothesis
is
an assumption, interpretation,
or
guess based on currently available information.
Or

Temporary theory

Generating research hypotheses

involves
two types of thinking.
Deductive Thinking
and

Inductive Thinking

Deductive thinking
is going from

the general to the specific.

Inductive thinking
is going

from the specific to the

general.

is the process of drawing new

conclusions based on information
we already know.

Hypothesis
Guides the investigation
and
subsequent analysis of data

Hypothesis testing
Will always result in one of two decisions:
either

reject or do not reject

the null hypothesis .
Any one decision can be either

correct or incorrect.

Four possible decision outcomes

Truth

Out
Come

H0 is true

H0 is false

Reject H0

Type I error

Correct

Do not reject H0

Correct

()
Type II error
()

Variable
The characteristics that can very
Variable are
the building blocks of

the research questions

Once the research question

is formulated
and

variables have been defined,

the researcher proposal an educated guess

about the outcome

of the study.

This guess is called

Hypothesis

Hypotheses are developed

before research is begun
to provide a definitive structure
for the investigation
by assisting the researcher
in planning the design, methods
and in determining
the data

analysis procedure.

Hypotheses
Provide
the reader of a research report
with an understanding
of
WHAT THE RESEARCHER
WAS EXPECTING TO FIND.

The hypothesis is
A declarative statement
that predicts
the relationship
between

the independent
and

dependent variables
Specifying the population that will be studied

Example

Patients with total knee

replacements who receive
Continuous Passive Motion
(CPM) following surgery will
have fewer postoperative
complications

This statement
does include a reference
to a target population,
but is not complete
because it contains only
ONE VARIABLE
(the number of post operative)

CPM treatment
Is not a variable
because
only one condition is presented

Patients with
total knee replacements
who receive CPM
following surgery
will have fewer postoperative
complications
than patients who do not
receive CPM

Now
CPM is an independent variable,
with two levels.
We will be able to distinguish
the response of
those patients
who receive CPM from those

who do not.

Hypothesis usually
incorporate phrase such as
Greater than
Less than
Different from
Related to
As a way of indicating the type of
relationship that is being examined

General Objective usually

incorporate phrase such as
To study
To Evaluate
To assess

These phrases

(General Objective)
is too broad
sometimes tangible
and
sometimes intangible

Specific Objective usually

incorporate phrase such as
To calculate
To measure
To find out
To define
To determine

To Compare

All of these phrases in specific objective/s

must be

Observable.
Measurable.
AND
Comparable.

PLEASE DO NOT USE/ AVOID

To SEE
To UNDERSTAND
To KNOW

Deductive thinking
is going from

the general to the specific.

Once the research question

is formulated
and

variables have been defined,

the researcher proposal
an educated guess
about the outcome
of the study.

This guess is called

Hypothesis

Hypotheses are developed

before research is begun
to provide a definitive structure
for the investigation
by assisting the researcher
in planning the design and methods
and
in determining
the data analysis procedure.

Hypotheses
Provide
the reader of a research report
with an understanding
of
WHAT THE RESEARCHER
WAS EXPECTING TO FIND.

The hypothesis is
A declarative statement
that predicts
the relationship
between

the independent
and

dependent variables
Specifying the population that will be studied

The probability
of the test statistic
falling in the critical region
when the hypothesis
is correct
is called
the alpha () value.

After the data is available,

the test statistic is calculated
and
we determine
whether it is inside the critical
region.

If the test statistic

is inside the critical region,
then
our conclusion
is one of the following:

P-value (Observed Significance Level)

P-value - Measure of the strength of evidence the
sample data provides against the null hypothesis:

P(Evidence This strong or stronger against H0 | H0 is true)

P val : p P ( Z zobs )