Ten Year Note Futures (Daily)

For several days the 118’05 to 118’11 zone was discussed as key resistance. Yesterday the Notes
peaked and reversed at 118’09, producing an unattractive daily candlestick in the process. It’s
certainly not the ugliest, or most ominous, candle we’ve ever seen, but there was certainly some
selling into the 61.8% retrace, at least on the “first go.”

117’12

This extremely ‘tight’ and well formed

channel is a strong indication of a
“corrective” move and not some sort of
impulsion higher.

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Ten Year Note Futures (15 min)

[2] Short term counts like this are always “dicey” to judge, but one can see the
outline of a “five wave” move lower on the intraday charts. If this is correct, then
I’ve identified the 117’28.5 (61.8%) and 118’00 zone as the short term resistance
zone. If this was a “five” down, then the market shouldn’t better this area.

118’00
[1]
117’28.5

[.3]?

[4]

[3] [a]
[.b]
[.1]

[.2]

[.c]
[.a] [b]

[5]
(1) or (a)

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Ten Year Note Futures (Daily)

Well, we’ve been talking about this level for several days now. The ten year note futures are now
knocking on the door of key resistance. I’m looking of reversal here very soon, expecting rates to
rise. Bulls now need to pay attention to the trend channel or any reversal action into 118’05 zone.

118’05

117’12

Reprinted from 1/26/2010 This extremely ‘tight’ and well formed

channel is a strong indication of a
“corrective” move and not some sort of
impulsion higher.

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 (Z) S&P 500 (60 min.)
“c”
1050
Two days ago, we talked about chart support at 1084 and thought there would be
some buying soon. The market ricocheted off the 1083 level and looks like a wave
completed at 1083. First level of resistance for bears is 1103/1105. A break of that
[b] level would make the S&P look headed for 1129.25.

1129.25
[a]

(x)
[c]
(w)
[b]
1103/1105

[a]

1083
[c]
(y)

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 (Z) S&P 500 (20 min.)
“c”
1050

There is still not a five wave move lower present on this chart, and
[b] the recent price action makes me favor a ‘complex’ count at this
point. One target for this model would be 1079 before getting some
sort of bounce. There is also “chart support” at 1084, so perhaps we
see some buying soon. The first resistance zones is easy to identify
at 1103-1105. If 1090 gets snapped this morning, then it will become
the near term point of resistance for new bears/shorts.
[a]
[a]

[c] (x)
[e]
[c]
(w)

[d]
[b]
1103/1105
[b]

1090
Reprinted from 1/26/2010 [a]

1079
[c]
(y)

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 (Z) S&P 500 (60 min.) ~ Orthodox count “fifth extension”
“c”
1050

Some orthodox wave counters (Daneric) are still favoring this count. From my point
of view, there are now two flaws with the model: The wave-4 correction before the
(2) proposed “fifth extension” was smaller and less enduring than wave-2. This should
not be. Also, within the Wave (5), the third and fifth waves are basically the same
size. Where is the “extended wave” within Wave (5)? I gave this model the benefit
of the doubt two days ago, but now it goes into my trash can. There very well may
be a “five” developing here somehow, but it’s not this model.

(1)
(4)

[2]

(3)

[4]
[1]

[3]

[5]
(5)

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER

This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. This report is technical
commentary only. The author is NOT representing himself as a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading
Advisor of any kind. This merely reflects the author’s interpretation of technical analysis. The
author may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positions opposite of
what may by inferred by this report. The information contained in this commentary is taken from
sources the author believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the author as to the accuracy
or completeness thereof and is sent to you for information purposes only. Commodity trading
involves risk and is not for everyone.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading:
Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND
RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should
consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity
futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should
understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.