Transportation Planning

Modeling with EMME/2

Interconnectedness

Agencies Running The

MAG Model
Maricopa County
Regional Public Transportation
Authority
Scottsdale
Tempe

Agencies Supported

Buckeye
Chandler
Fountain Hills
Phoenix
ADOT
Gila River Indian Community
Gilbert
Glendale
Goodyear
Mesa
Pima Association of governments
Peoria
Phoenix
Pima-Maricopa Indian Community
US HUD

Components

Transportation Model
Land Use
Highway Network
Transit Network
Documentation

Major Updates
1984 Travel Demand Model (UTPS)
1979 Travel Speed Study
1980 On-Board Bus Survey
1981 Home Interview Survey

1990 Travel Model Update (UTPS)

1986 On-Board Bus Survey
1986 Travel Speed Study
1989 Home Interview Survey

1995 Conversion to EMME2 and Model Update

1989 Home Interview
1991 On-Board Bus Survey
1993 Travel Speed Study

Recent Improvements

Feedback to Trip Distribution

HOV Modeling
Graphics
Model Flexibility
Remote Access

Socioeconomic Variables
Residential
Location
Household Income
Auto Ownership

Employment
Location
Type

Modeled Area
Area is 60 x90 miles
29 Member Agencies
1541 Transportation Analysis Zones

Modeled Area
Area is 60 x90 miles
29 Member Agencies
1541 Transportation Analysis Zones

Transportation Model
Feedback

MAG Transportation Model

Trip Purpose Stratification

Home-Based Work
Income Group Stratification

Home-Based Shopping
Home-Based Other
Home-Based School
Elementary/Secondary
Arizona State University
Other University

Non-Home Based
Non-Home-Based Other
Non-Home-Based Work

Trip Generation
Trip Production
j = f (Household size j, Household
income j)

Trip Attraction
j = f (Retail Employment j, other
employment j, households j)

Productions and Attractions

Network Level of Service

Highway
Travel distance ij
Travel time ij
Travel Cost

Transit

Walk time ij
First wait ij
In-vehicle time ij
Transfer time ij
Fare ij
Number of transfers
Drive access areas
Walk access areas

Trip Distribution

Pi(Aj x Fij)
Tij =
(Aj x Fij)
Tij = Trips from Zone i to Zone j
Pi = Trip Production in Zone i

Aj = trip Attraction in Zone j

Fij =Effect of travel time & distance
between Zone i & Zone j

Transit Access Coding

AM Peak Period Bus Travel

AM PEAK PERIOD
Time Factor
SERVICE

AREA TYPE

FACILITY TYPE

TRAVEL TIME
FACTOR

EXPRESS

1-5

FREEWAYS

1.44

EXPRESS

1-3

SURFACE ROADS

1.53

EXPRESS

4-5

SURFACE ROADS

1.83

LOCAL

1-3

ALL

1.66

LOCAL

4-5

ALL

1.90

SHUTTLE

1-5

ALL

3.00

Walk Access Path Building

Parameters
TIME (MIN)
BOARDING

3.00

WEIGHT
2.00

WAIT

HEADWAY

1.00

WALK ACCESS

60*((walk dist)/3)

2.00

WALK EGRESS

60*((walk dist)/3)

2.00

Multinomial Logit Structure

Choice

Drive Alone

Shared Ride

Transit Walk
Access

2 Occupants

3 Occupants

4+ Occupants

Transit Drive
Access

Mode Choice

Pij = Probability of using transit for a trip between Zone i to Zone j

Transit untilityij = f (transit level of serviceij , incomei )
Auto utilityij = f (highway level of service ij , income ij

Home Based Work

Observed vs. Estimated Trips by Mode

1990
Observed

1990
Estimated

Home Based Work

Income Category 1
Auto
Transit Walk Access
Transit Drive Access
Total

174,545.68
11,996.35
435.97
186,978.00

175,069.00
11,453.00
455.00
186,978.00

0.30%
-4.53%
4.37%
0.00%

Income Category 2
Auto
Transit Walk Access
Transit Drive Access
Total

226,469.55
7,889.46
926.00
235,285.00

226,285.00
8,050.00
949.00
235,284.00

-0.08%
2.03%
2.48%
-0.00%

1,113,951.49
9,800.08
3,396.43
1,127,148.00

1,114,269.00
9,511.00
3,368.00
1,127,149.00

0.03%
-2.95%
-0.84%
0.00

Income Category 3
Auto
Transit Walk Access
Transit Drive Access

Total

% error

Home Based Non-Work

Observed vs. Estimated Trips by Mode
1990
Observed

1990
Estimated

Home Based Non-work

Income Category 1
Auto
Transit Walk Access
Transit Drive Access

% error

531,568.99
19,319.67
454.34

530,699.00
20,196.00
448.00

-0.16%
4.54%
-1.40%

Income Category 2
Auto
Transit Walk Access
Transit Drive Access

522,050.92
7,120.04
336.04

521,888.00
7,318.00
301.00

-0.03%
2.78%
-10.43%

Income Category 3
Auto
Transit Walk Access
Transit Drive Access

2,561,758.01
8,889.99
949.00

2,561,486.00
9,152.00
959.00

-0.01%
2.95%
1.05%

Non-home Based

Observed vs. Estimated Trips by Mode

Non-Home Based
Auto
Transit Walk Access
Transit Drive Access

1990
Observed
2,072,182.00
8,179.00
388.00

1990
Estimated
2,072,398.00
7,980.00
372.00

% error
0.01%
-2.43%
-4.12%

Transit Trips
Thousands

Transit Boardings
Thousands

Transit Transfer Rate

1980 Weekday 24-hour Counts

I-10: East of 40th Street

Actual vs. Estimated Counts

Highway Travel Forecasting

Accuracy of Models in Phoenix and Other Planning Areas

Population and Average

Daily VMT

Regional Freeway Priorities

Planned Street Improvements

Construct or Widen
2000-2010
2011-2019

Regional Transit Plan

More Frequent Service

New Service

Carbon
Monoxide
Concentrations
Projected for December 1995

1995 Freeway Traffic

AWDT Volumes (000) and V/C Ratios

Based on 1995 HOV

Traffic Assignment
and Freeway Management
System Counts

Current Projects

Updating Documentation
External Travel Survey
Household Travel Survey
Changing to New Computers

Transportation Planning

Modeling with EMME/2