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Motivation,
Background,
and Tools
Slide 1
Edition
Released
First
Oct. 2006
Revised
Revised
Slide 2
Slide 3
Slide 4
Impairments to Dependability
Fl
aw
Fa
ul
t
Error
l
i
a
F
d
r
a
z
a
H
e
r
u
Bu
g
n
o
i
t
a
d
a
r
g
e
D
Intr
u
sion
t
c
e
f
e
D
M
al
fu
Crash
nc
t io
n
Slide 5
Aspect
Impairment
Structure
State
Behavior
Fault
Error
Failure
Fault
Correct
signal
0
Replaced
with
NAND?
Slide 6
Impairment
Physical
Logical
Informational
External
Failure
Fault
Error
Crash
Slide 7
Aspect
Impairment
Structure
State
Behavior
Fault
Error
Failure
First
Cycle
Second
Cycle
Abstraction
Impairment
Component
Logic
Information
System
Service
Result
Defect
Fault
Error
Malfunction
Degradation
Failure
LowLevel
MidLevel
HighLevel
Slide 8
Multilevel Model
Component
Logic
Defective
Legend:
Legned:
Initial
Entry
Entry
Information
System
Service
Result
Ideal
Low-Level
Impaired
Faulty
Erroneous
Deviation
Malfunctioning
Remedy
Degraded
Tolerance
Failed
Mid-Level
Impaired
High-Level
Impaired
Slide 9
Wallheightsrepresent
interlevellatencies
Inletvalvesrepresent
avoidancetechniques
Concentricreservoirsare
analogsofthesixmodellevels,
withdefectbeinginnermost
I I I I I I
Drainvalvesrepresent
tolerancetechniques
Slide 10
R(t) = ent
There are only 3 ways of making systems more reliable
1.0
Reduce
Alternative:
Change the reliability
formula by introducing
redundancy in system
.9990
.9900
.9048
0.8
Reduce n
Reduce t
.9999
0.6
n t
0.4
.3679
0.2
0.0
104
106
nt
108
1010
Slide 11
Slide 12
Aspects of Dependability
ea
bi
il ty
Se
ce
n
ue
q
e
ns
y
t
e
f
a
co
,
S k
cu
s
c
ilience
s
e
Ri
i
R
rit
v
r
y
e
S
y
v.,
t
a
y
i
l
t
l
a
i lity,
i terv
l
b
i
i
a
b
n
y
b
t
t
I
i
l
i
a
a
,
b
l
s trol ility
l
lbiia
v.
e
= M TF F
i
e
F
R
a
T
T
M
,
T
a
y
v
ise TR
on rvab
Relia lit
w
C
A oi nt , M T
se
M
b
o
y
P BF
t
a
i
T
lF
in
M
i
ta
a, bMCB
i
R
n
m
o
I
y
n
t
a
r
b
t
li
u
e
i
b
o
s
g
b
f
t
r
a
i
n
i
r
t
l
y
e
m
it y
r
s
e
o
s
f
Pr
Pe
Slide 13
Liftimes of 20
identical systems
10
20
Covariance of x and y
x,y = E [(x Ex)(y Ey)]
= E [x y] Ex Ey
30
40
50
30
40
50
30
40
50
1.0
0.8
CDF
0.6
Variance of x
2x = (x Ex)2 f(x) dx
= k (xk Ex)2 f(xk)
Time
0.4
F(t)
0.2
0.0
0
10
20
Time
0.05
0.04
0.03
f(t)
0.02
0.01
0.00
0
10
20
Time
Slide 14
CDF
CDF
CDF
CDF
Normal
Binomial
f(x)
pdf
Uniform
Exponential
Slide 15
Two-state
nonrepairable
system
Start
State
Good
Failed
MTTF =
t f(t) dt = R(t) dt
Failure
Exponential
reliability law
Slide 16
MTTF = 1/
Discrete versions
Geometric
R(k) = q k
Discrete Weibull
Erlang:
MTTF = k/
Gamma:
Erlang and exponential are special cases
Normal:
Reliability and MTTF formulas are complicated
Binomial
Slide 17
Comparing Reliabilities
Reliability difference: R2 R1
Reliability gain: R2 / R1
Reliability improvement factor
RIF2/1 = [1R1(tM)] / [1R2(tM)]
System Reliability (R)
Example:
[1 0.9] / [1 0.99] = 10
1.0
R2 (tM)
rG
R1(tM)
Reliability functions
for Systems 1/2
R2 (t)
R1 (t)
0.0
T1 (rG)
tM T2 (rG) MTTF2
MTTF1
Time (t)
Slide 18
Two-state
repairable
system
Repair
Start
State
Down
Up
Failure
A=
=
=
1/ = MTTR
MTTF + MTTR MTBF
+
In general, >> , leading to A 1
Slide 19
Repair
Start
State
Down
Up
Failure
Up
Down
0
t1
t 2 t'2
t'1
Time
Slide 20
Three-state
degradable system
Repair
Up 2
Up 1
Partial repair
Down
Failure
Partial failure
Simple example
Worth of Up2 twice that of Up1
t
pUpi = probability
system is in state Upi
Question:
P = 2pUp2 + pUp1
What is system
availability here?
Slide 21
Repair
Start
State
Up 2
Up 1
Partial failure
Partial repair
Down
Failure
Partial
Failure
Up
Partially Up
Total
Failure
Partial
Repair
t2
t'2
Time
MCBF
Down
0
t1
t'1
t 3 t'3 t
Slide 22
Three-state
fail-safe system
Failure
Start
State
Safe
Failed
Good
Failure
Unsafe
Failed
Slide 23