Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
CHASE
ninth edition
AQUILANO JACOBS
Operations Management
For Competitive Advantage
Chapter 11
Forecasting
ninth edition
The McGraw-Hill Companies,
Inc
Operations Management
Chapter 11
ninth edition
Forecasting
Demand Management
Exponential Smoothing
Operations Management
ninth edition
Demand Management
Independent Demand:
Finished Goods
Dependent Demand:
Raw Materials,
Component parts,
Sub-assemblies, etc.
C(2)
B(4)
D(2)
E(1)
D(3)
F(2)
Operations Management
ninth edition
Operations Management
ninth edition
Types of Forecasts
Qualitative (Judgmental)
Quantitative
Operations Management
ninth edition
Components of Demand
Operations Management
ninth edition
Sales
x
x x
xx
x
x xx
x
x x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
xxxx
x x
x
x
x
x
x
x x
x
x
Linear
x
Trend
x
Year
Operations Management
ninth edition
Qualitative Methods
Executive Judgment
Historical analogy
Grass Roots
Qualitative
Market Research
Methods
Delphi Method
Panel Consensus
Operations Management
ninth edition
Delphi Method
Operations Management
10
ninth edition
Operations Management
11
ninth edition
Operations Management
12
ninth edition
Demand
650
678
720
785
859
920
850
758
892
920
789
844
13
Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
14
1000
Demand
900
Demand
800
3-Week
700
6-Week
600
500
1
9 10 11 12
Week
Operations Management
15
ninth edition
Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Demand
820
775
680
655
620
600
575
Question: What is
the 3 week moving
average forecast for
this data?
Assume you only
have 3 weeks and 5
weeks of actual
demand data for the
respective forecasts
Operations Management
16
ninth edition
Demand
820
775
680
655
620
600
575
3-Week
5-Week
758.33
703.33
651.67
625.00
710.00
666.00
Operations Management
17
ninth edition
=1
i=1
Operations Management
18
ninth edition
Demand
650
678
720
Weights:
t-1 .5
t-2 .3
t-3 .2
Operations Management
19
ninth edition
Week
1
2
3
4
Demand Forecast
650
678
720
693.4
F4 = 0.5(720)+0.3(678)+0.2(650)=693.4
Operations Management
20
ninth edition
Demand
820
775
680
655
Weights:
t-1 .7
t-2 .2
t-3 .1
Operations Management
21
ninth edition
Demand Forecast
820
775
680
655
672
F5 = (0.1)(755)+(0.2)(680)+(0.7)(655)= 672
Operations Management
22
ninth edition
= smoothing constant
Operations Management
23
ninth edition
Demand
820
775
680
655
750
802
798
689
775
Operations Management
24
ninth edition
Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Demand
820
775
680
655
750
802
798
689
775
0.1
820.00
820.00
815.50
801.95
787.26
783.53
785.38
786.64
776.88
776.69
0.6
820.00
820.00
820.00
817.30
808.09
795.59
788.35
786.57
786.61
780.77
Operations Management
25
ninth edition
Demand
900
800
Demand
700
0.1
600
0.6
500
1
10
Week
Operations Management
26
ninth edition
Operations Management
27
ninth edition
Week
1
2
3
4
5
Demand
820
775
680
655
F3=820+(0.5)(775-820)=797.75
0.5
820.00
820.00
797.50
738.75
696.88
Operations Management
28
ninth edition
t=1
- Ft
The larger the MAD, the less the desirable the resulting model.
Operations Management
29
ninth edition
Sales Forecast
220
n/a
250
255
210
205
300
320
325
315
Operations Management
30
ninth edition
Sales
220
250
210
300
325
40
n
MAD =
t=1
- Ft
40
=
= 10
4
Operations Management
31
ninth edition
Operations Management
32
ninth edition
a
0 1 2 3 4 5
Yt = a + bx
(Time)
Operations Management
33
ninth edition
a = y - bx
b=
xy - n(y)(x)
2
x - n(x )
Operations Management
34
ninth edition
Week
1
2
3
4
5
Sales
150
157
162
166
177
35
Week Week*Week
Sales Week*Sales
1
1
150
150
2
4
157
314
3
9
162
486
4
16
166
664
5
25
177
885
3
55
162.4
2499
Average
Sum Average
Sum
xy - n(y)(x) 2499 - 5(162.4)(3) 63
b=
=
= 6.3
2
2
55 5(9)
10
x - n(x )
a = y - bx = 162.4 - (6.3)(3) = 143.5
Yt = 143.5 + 6.3x
36
Sales
Sales
Forecast
3
Period