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By
Tadjuddin Noer Effendi
Other reasons
Demographic variables have potentiality to
provide basic data and information to help in
strengthening business activities and prospect of
market for the future.
Demographic variables such as age structures,
education and employment can determine
nature of business and market situation.
Business activities
Demography
Number of population
Population structures
Employment
Unemployment
Source, *BPS, 2000, Penduduk Indonesia: Hasil Sensus Penduduk 2000, Seri RBL1.2, Jakarta, p.172
**BPS, 2010, Penduduk Indonesia: Menurut Propinsi dan Kab/kota sensus penduduk 2010, Jakarta, p. 17-18
Source, *BPS, 2000, Penduduk Indonesia: Hasil Sensus Penduduk 2000, Seri RBL1.2, Jakarta, p.172
**BPS, 2010, Penduduk Indonesia: Menurut Propinsi dan Kab/kota sensus penduduk 2010, Jakarta, p. 17-18
Golonga
n umur
15-19
(%)
0,18
0,49
(%)
1,04
0,32
(%)
0.43
0,61
20-24
0,99
3,13
3,92
2,05
2,57
2,88
25-29
2,59
6,67
4,83
4,43
4,98
4,96
30-34
4,75
10,15
6,47
7,30
7,49
7,46
35-39
6,96
10,77
7,55
9,21
9,27
8,74
40-44
9,49
11,70
10,06
10,81
10,71
10,61
45-49
12,05
12,20
10,45
11,25
12,33
11,38
50-54
12,89
11,75
11,23
11,04
13,38
11,63
55-59
11,80
9,77
10,71
10,57
12,90
10,61
60-64
9,55
6,57
9,23
8,17
8,69
8,29
65-69
8,43
4,97
7,38
7,06
4,89
6,72
70-74
8,69
5,03
7,43
7,27
5,09
6,84
>=75
11,63
6,81
9,71
10,52
7,26
9,25
100
100
100
100
100
100
131.918
261.586
318.005
169.127
17.611
898.247
Jumlah
%
N
24,67 %
75,33
%
FOCUS OF DISCUSSION
NUMBER OF POPULATION, POPULATION DISTRIBUTION, AND
POPULATION DENSITY
POPULATION GROWTH
POPULATION STRUCTURES
AGE
EDUCATION
EMPLOYMENT
THEIR CHANGES OVER TIME AND IMPLICATIONS ON
MARKET SITUATION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITIES
250
237.6
205.1
200
179.7
147.5
150
119.2
In miliion)
97.1
100
60.7
50
1930
1940
1950
1961
1971
1980
1990
2000
2010
Sumatera
Java
Male
Female
Total
Distribution
(%)
Density
(person/km2)
25.629.682
(50,6%)
24.984.265
(49.4%)
50. 613.947
(100%)
21,3
105
68.451.461
(50,1%)
68.111.681
(49,9%)
136.563.142
(100%)
57,5
1.055
Nusa Tenggara
6.464.872
(49,5%)
6.602.727
(50,5%)
13.067.599
(100%)
5,5
178
Kalimantan
7.094.742
(51,5%)
6.674.801
(48,5%)
13.772.543
(100%)
5,8
25
Sulawesi
8.670.721
(49,9%)
8.708.677
(50,1%)
17.359.398
(100%)
7,3
92
Maluku and
Papua
3.216.102
(52,0%)
2.963.632
(48,0%)
6.179.734
(100%)
2,6
12
118.048.783
(49,7%)
237.556.363
(100%)
100
124
INDONESIA
119.507.580
(50,3%)
Sumber: BPS, 2010, Penduduk Indonesia menurut kabupaten/kota hasil sensus 2010, Jakarta, hal. 10-11
o
o
o
o
o
o
Population census (every 10 year ) 1961, 1971, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010
Laborer Survey (Sakernas) every year since 1976
Inter Census Survey (every 5 year)
National Social-economic survey (Susenas) every year since 1976
Rural Potentiality (Podes)
Special publication (wages, consumption index others)
BPS sometime use similar concept but different definition . We need to
check the definition before we comparing the data.
POPULATION GROWTH
Population growth can be used for basic information in
investment planning. It can give us information about
existing, and prospect of population (potential market) in the
future.
2.34
2.22.15
2.13
1.98
1.8
persentase (%)
1.49
1.4
1
1930-1961
1.35
1961-1971
1971-1980
1980-1990
1990-2000
2000-2010
Social change, especially female education has increased and female has
initiated to enter the labor market of public sectors in order to get wages.
This brings change in social (life) behavior of women, especially towards
marriage. They tend to delay marriage since they have to finish education
for the sake of their career development in work place. For the married
women, planning spacing of pregnancy is becoming a norm and the
preference to have children depend on the family economic condition. Two
children have already been a norm in young families.
The awareness in birth control have spread out and have already been
accepted in the society
The first age marriage have increased significantly, especially for young
generations followed with young eligible couples
Small family norm are starting to be accepted and children are seen to be
an economic burden (not as fortune any more)
Service towards the effort to controlling and delaying pregnancy are
available and easy to find.
64.4
70.9
104
26.8
% of poor people*****
Urban
2007
2011
Rural
2007
2011
12.5
9.8
20.4
16.6
lSources:
BPS, Bapenas, UNDP, 2001, Indonesia Human Development Report 2001: Towards A
New Concensus, Jakarta, p.78
** BPS, 2011, Perkembangan Beberapa Indikator Utama Sosial-ekonomi Indonesia, May
2011, Jakarta, p.36
***World Development Report, 1991, Investing in Health, Washington, p.59
**** BPS, 2010, Perkembangan Beberapa Indikator Utama Sosial-ekonomi Indonesia,
August 2010, Jakarta, p.16
***** BPS, 2010, Perkembangan Beberapa Indikator Utama Sosial-ekonomi Indonesia,
May 2011, Jakarta, p.39
POPULATION STRUCTURES
Age
Education
Employment
Age
Population growth both caused by fertility
or in and out /in migration would affect the
age of population structures.
Table 3
economic ratios, selected Asian Countries, 2000, 2025 and 2050
Source: Mason, Lee and Russo (quoted in, p.310)
Summary of dependency and economic ratios, selected Asian Countries, 2000, 2025 and 2050
Countries
Total dependency
Child dependency
ratio
ratio
2000 2025 2050 2000
2025 2050
Old dependency
ratio
2000 2025 2050
Economic support
ratio
2000 2025 2050
Japan
South Korea
0.468
0.393
0.250
0.094
0.637
0.647
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Bangladesh
India
0.673
0.477
0.838
0.678
0.217
0.299
0.226 0.254
0.252 0.270
0.447 0.583
0.226 0.417
0.582
0.622
0.545
0.564
Total
Young
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
71.7
71.8
70.5
71.1
68.9
67.8
63.6
56.1
47.5
45.1
47.7
48.2
62.6
63.0
62.3
63.1
61.0
59.5
54.9
47.2
38.2
34.9
36.0
34.9
old
9.1
8.8
8.2
8.0
7.9
8.3
8.7
9.0
9.2
10.3
11.7
13.3
Source: Okita, Saburo and Kuroda, Toshio, 1981, Japan s Three Transitions, Series 1, Tokyo, Nihon University
Population Reseacrh Institute
FIGURE 1
Australia: Average Weekly Household Expenditure on Selected
Items by Age, 1988
FIGURE 2
United States: Expenditure on Selected Items by Age, 1988
EDUCATION
Education is one important information for business activity
especially for investors. Information on population education
structure of a region could give a picture of the skill formation of the
labors that are needed to support business activities.
The region with low population education maybe less attractive for
business activities which needs support from skilled labors. For
business activities that do not need unskilled labors the low
education structure would not be a problem but the level of wage
would still be in consideration. Usually educated skill labors require
different wages from unskilled labors.
Business activities that are trying to find low wage levels usually
look for regions with low population education structures.
Education continue
Education in a normal condition could also be
used as an indicator for the economic status of a
population. Regions with a relatively high
population education structure tend to have high
incomes. Because of that it could also be used
as proxy purchasing power of population.
The lifestyle of the population is affected by
education. Based on those reasons, the need for
goods and services for the population with better
education is different from uneducated.
Table 4
Education Structures of Population by Province in 1990 and 2010
Provinces
Ache
North Sumatra
West Sumatra
Riau
Jambi
South Sumatra
Bengkulu
Lampung
Bangka Belitung
Kepulauan Riau
DKI Jakarta
West Java
Central Java
Yogyakarta
East Java
Banten
Bali
West NusaTenggara
East Nusa Tenggara
West Kalimantan
Central Kalimantan
South Kalimantan
East Kalimantan
North Sulawesi
Central Sulawesi
South Sulawesi
Southeast Sulawesi
West Sulawesi
Gorontalo
Maluku
Maluku Utara
West Papua
Papua
INDONESIA
Primary
73.2
69.8
72.1
75.8
78.3
79.1
76.8
81.7
51.9
80.9
83.0
67.7
81.2
75.6
84.5
86.2
83.7
76.3
78.2
69.2
71.2
78.0
76.7
77.8
74.9
79.6
73.4
Source: *BPS, 1992, Population of Indonesia: Result of Census 1990, Seri S2, p.141
**BPS, 2011, Welfare Statistics 2010, Jakarta, p.89
Tertiary
1.4
1.5
1.8
1.4
1.2
1.1
1.6
0.8
5.3
1.3
1.0
2.9
1.2
2.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.2
2.3
1.9
1.1
1.8
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.6
Primary
47.9
46.5
50.9
50.9
56.6
58.3
53.7
56.7
60.6
39.1
30.8
57.7
61.6
42.6
60.3
51.7
50.9
64.4
68.0
64.4
57.7
58.6
46.4
48.1
57.7
56.2
66.1
63.7
63.1
49.3
54.1
45.1
63.6
55.7
Tertiary
7.9
5.9
6.8
5.6
5.2
5.3
6.5
4.0
4.6
8.0
13.9
5.8
4.9
10.4
4.8
7.7
9.2
4.4
4.6
3.9
6.0
5.7
7.3
6.9
6.2
7.4
4.1
4.6
4.8
7.0
5.l7
9.3
5.1
6.0
Employment
Besides education as discussed in the previous section,
labor force and employment data could also be use as
an indicator to examine the social and economic
transformation process of a region.
Table 5
Labor Force Participation and Open Unemployment Rate by provinces 1990 and 2010
Labor Force Participation Rate and Open Unemployment by provinces 1990 and 2010
1990*
Provinces
Participation by provinces
Open Unemployment
Rate
Labor Force Participation Rate and Labor
OpenForce
Unemployment
1990 and
2010 Labor Force Participation
Rate (%)
(%)
Rate (%)
Aceh
North Sumatra
West Sumatra
Riau
Jambi
South Sumatra
Bengkulu
Lampung
Bangka Belitung
Riau Island
DKI Jakarta
West Java
Central Java
Yogyakarta
East Java
Banten
Bali
West Nusa Tenggara
East Nusa Tenggara
West Kalimantan
Central Kalimantan
South Kalimantan
East Kalimantan
North Sulawesi
Central Sulawesi
South Sulawesi
Southeast Sulawesi
Gorontalo
West Sulawesi
Maluku
North Maluku
West Papua
Papua
53,2
53,9
51,0
53,2
56,6
54,9
59,5
56,8
48,7
49,7
58,6
63,4
57,3
61,7
59,2
63,2
61,2
58,7
57,8
53,6
51,3
54,5
44,1
53,5
49,6
60,9
2,8
3,2
3,0
2,8
1,9
2,9
1,8
1,9
7,1
4,1
2,6
2,5
2,7
2,0
2,2
0,8
1,9
1,8
3,3
4,3
4,3
2,7
4,8
3,3
3,4
3,1
INDONESIA
Source: *BPS, 1992, Populations of Indonesia: Result of Census 1990, Jakarta, Seri S2, p.267
**BPS, 2011, Welfare Indicators 2010, Jakarta, p. 201
2010**
Open
Unemployment Rate (%)
63.2
69.5
66.4
63.7
65.8
70.2
71.9
67.9
66.5
68.8
67.8
62.4
70.6
69.8
69.1
65.3
77.4
66.6
72.8
73.2
69.9
71.3
66.4
63.3
69.2
64.1
71.9
64.4
71.5
66.5
65.1
69.3
80.9
8.3
7.4
6.9
8.7
5.9
6.6
4.6
5.6
4.6
6.9
11.0
10.3
6.2
5.7
4.3
13.7
3.1
5.3
3.3
4.6
4.1
5.2
10.1
9.6
5.2
8.4
4.6
5.2
4.6
10.0
6.0
7.7
3.5
67.7
7.1
Source : BPS, 2011, Laborer Situation, Agust 2010, Jakarta, p. 25, 26, and 27
Percentage of Population 10 Years and over Worked During The previous Week by Industry and Province in 1990 and 2010
1990 (%)*
Province
Aceh
North Sumatra
West Sumatra
Riau
Jambi
South Sumatra
Bengkulu
Lampung
Bangka Belitung
Riau Island
DKI Jakarta
West Java
Central Java
Yogyakarta
East Java
Banten
Bali
West NusaTenggara
East Nusa Tenggara
West Kalimantan
Central Kalimantan
South Kalimantan
East Kalimantan
North Sulawesi
Central Sulawesi
South Sulawesi
Southeast Sulawesi
Gorontalo
West Sulawesi
Maluku
North Maluku
West Papua
Papua
Indonesia
2010 (%)**
Agriculture
Industry
Services
Agriculture
Industry
Services
65.5
60.4
59.8
58.1
69.7
64.5
70.9
70.2
1.1
36.8
47.9
45.5
50.1
44.1
54.3
75.2
72.5
61.9
53.8
43.2
55.7
67.5
57.6
68.0
62.0
71.9
8.9
10.4
9.2
13.1
8.1
10.4
6.4
8.7
28.1
23.2
19.4
19.4
16.4
21.5
16.9
12.2
8.1
15.2
14.6
20.5
13.0
8.8
10.1
7.8
11.4
6.9
25.6
29.2
31.0
28.8
22.2
25.1
22.7
21.1
70.8
40.0
32.7
35.1
33.5
34.4
28.8
12.6
19.4
22.9
31.6
36.3
31.3
23.7
32.3
24.2
31.3
21.2
52.2
46.9
44.9
47.7
57.3
60.4
62.0
61.5
32.7
13.1
1.0
24.7
39.2
33.7
44.7
19.0
31.2
53.0
68.5
62.6
57.2
43.1
29.3
35.2
58.9
51.1
52.1
42.6
63.7
51.6
54.0
47.1
75.2
40.5
9.2
12.2
11.0
11.4
9.0
8.2
6.2
8.6
30.2
38.8
21.6
25.1
22.1
17.4
16.9
30.2
19.4
11.3
8.2
9.4
11.2
15.1
21.0
14.2
7.5
10.2
10.4
11.0
7.9
7.0
8.3
10.5
4.3
17.6
38.6
41.0
44.1
40.9
33.7
31.4
31.8
29.9
37.1
48.1
77.4
50.2
38.9
48.9
38.4
50.8
49.4
35.7
23.3
28.0
31.6
41.8
49.7
50.6
33.6
38.7
37.5
46.4
28.4
41.4
37.7
42.4
20.5
41.9
Source: *BPS, 1992, Population of Indonesia: Result of Census 1990, Jakarta, Seri S2, p.312
**BPS, 2011, Ketenagakerjaan Penduduk Indonesia: Hasil Sensus Penduduk 2010, Jakarta, p.48, 49 , 50 and 51
Conclusion
Demography variables need to be
consider in analysis of potential, in
expansion of market and in developing
bussiness activities