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Schedule Risk Analytics with PertMaster

Improving Schedule Quality &


Validating Capability to Execute

Course Outline

An introduction to schedule risk


analysis theory
CPM vs. Schedule Risk Analysis
Better estimates for completion
dates
Effect of skewed distributions
The parallel paths effect
Types of schedule
Schedule Review
Schedule Check Report
Pre-Analysis Checks
Identifying Project Drivers
Risk Identification
Estimate Uncertainty
Risk Events: Risk Register

Develop Preliminary Risk Model


Estimate Uncertainty:
Importing from Primavera &
MS Project
Task Details
Quick Risk
Templated Quick Risk
Correlation
Risk Events
Task Existence
Probabilistic Branching
Risk Register

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Course Outline

Preliminary Analysis & Review


Risk Analysis Options
Building an Impacted Risk Plan
Distribution Graph
Tornado Graph
Bookmarks
Distribution Analyzer

Final Model & Report


Mitigation Planning
Mitigation Plan Analysis
P-Schedules
Updating Primavera

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PertMaster Monte Carlo Simulation

Range forms an envelope


One value is selected each iteration
Random simulation of activity durations

iteration
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10 days
9 days

14 days

2
1

6
5
4
3

20
19
12 18
11 17
10 16
9 15
8 14
7 13

17 days

27
26
25
24
23
22
21

10 days

33
32
31
30
29
28

38
37
36
35
34

14 days

42
41 45
40 44 47
39 43 46 48

4Pessimistic
17
78910
11
12
11
31
5
16
17
Optimistic
Likely

13 days

7 days

10 days

12 days

10 days

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Project Risk Types


Estimate Uncertainty

Model
Risk Distributions e.g. 3pt estimates
Monte Carlo simulation

Reduction of risk exposure


Contingency
Risk responses (e.g. mitigation)

Risk Events

Model
Risk register/log
PI Matrices

Estimate
EstimateUncertainty
Uncertainty++Risk
RiskEvents
Events==Total
TotalRisk
RiskExposure
Exposure

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Uncertainty vs. Risk Events

Minimum

Most Likely
Duration Variability

Maximum
Maximum
Risk Event Risk Event

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Schedule Risk Analysis Theory


An Introduction

Overview of traditional CPM

10d

--/--/--

Predicts single completion date and cost


Uses single values for activity durations and costs
Does not take uncertainty into account

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CPM with schedule risk analysis

10d

--/--/-8d

10d

15d

Quantifies probability of completing project on time and budget


Uses 3 point estimates for durations and costs (min, most likely, max)
Takes uncertainty into account

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Better estimates for completion dates

Single-Path Schedule
CPM schedule finishes on December 10, relies on combinations of
durations that equal 70 days

Likelihood of the 10th December?

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Exercise: Find out chance of meeting 10th December

Open TrainingDesignBuild_1Path.plan from the Samples folder

Risk | Run Risk Analysis

Save plan if requested

Keep default analysis options and click Analyze

Identify chance of completing on time

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Exercise: Find out chance of meeting 10th December

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Why is there only a 18% chance?

Distributions are skewed most likely is nearer to minimum than maximum

There is a greater chance an activity will take more time rather than less
time to complete.

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Effect of skewed distributions

What would be the chance of completing the project on time if each


distribution was symmetrical?

50%

Therefore: With skewed distributions the chance of hitting a schedule end


date will be less than 50%

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Effect of parallel paths

This project also completes on December 10

Is it more or less risky than single path?

Likelihood of December 10th finish?

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Exercise: Parallel paths

Open TrainingDesignBuild.plan from the Samples folder

Risk | Run Risk Analysis

Save plan if requested

Keep default analysis options and click Analyze

Identify chance of completing on time

Schedule with parallel paths more or less risky?

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More risky

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Combined effect of skew and parallel paths

Skewed Distributions

+
Parallel Paths

=
Typically less than 20%
chance of hitting completion
date

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Most likely schedule


10d

8d

10d

15d

A most likely schedule has deterministic activity durations equal to the


most likely durations
The chance of completing the project on time will be dependent on duration
uncertainty and parallel paths
The date it gives is not the most likely

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Deterministic duration always most likely?

Schedules often contain activities where the duration estimates are not the
most likely.

Why?
Estimator was too optimistic
Estimator was too pessimistic
Estimator wanted to add their own contingency
The original estimate was inaccurate
Others?

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Schedule types

Schedules can be categorized as the following:


1. The Realists schedule (most likely)
2. The Aggressive schedule (optimists)
3. The Cautious schedule (pessimists)
4. The Scale to Fit schedule (politics!)

Lets look at 2, 3 and 4 in more detail

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What type is your schedule?

Do you know whether the durations in your schedules are cautious,


aggressive or the most likely?

Obtaining three point estimates and running a schedule risk analysis will
help identify the type of schedule you are working with.

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2. Aggressive schedule
9d

8d

10d

15d

Activities have durations that are less than their most likely durations
The risk analysis will tell us about the chance (if any!) of hitting the aggressive
schedule date
Any advantages or disadvantages to working to an aggressive schedule?

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3. Cautious schedule
12d

8d

10d

15d

Perhaps the worst type of schedule


Activities with durations that are greater than their most likely (i.e. the durations
include contingency)
We would expect some activities to take longer than planned and others shorter
than planned. HOWEVER we do not know which activities will do what.

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Parkinsons Law
12d

Work expands to fill the time available for its completion


8d

10d

15d

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4. The Scale to Fit schedule

Schedules are often driven by a completion date and not realistic duration
estimates

Activity durations are scaled so that project finishes on a predetermined


date e.g. the contract date, client requirement.

Schedule may then be most likely, aggressive or cautious

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Why run a quantitative analysis?

To help create more realistic schedules

To improve awareness of project risk and uncertainty

To identify schedule assumptions

Communication: Develop a better understanding of the schedule amongst


the project team

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PertMaster Risk Methodology

Schedule Review
Best Practices Check
Pre-Analysis Check
Risk Identification
Estimate Uncertainty
Risk Events: Risk Register
Develop Preliminary Risk Model
Enter Estimate Uncertainty
Map Risks to Activities
Preliminary Analysis & Review
Analyze 3pt Estimates
Analyze Risk Events
Final Model & Report
Risk Event plan
Response planning

Risk
Management
Process

Based on: PMBOK Chapter 11

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PertMaster Risk Methodology

Schedule Review
Best Practices Check
Pre-Analysis Check
Risk Identification
Estimate Uncertainty
Risk Events: Risk Register
Develop Preliminary Risk Model
Enter Estimate Uncertainty
Map Risks to Activities
Preliminary Analysis & Review
Analyze 3pt Estimates
Analyze Risk Events
Final Model & Report
Risk Event plan
Response planning

Based on: PMBOK Chapter 11

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Schedule Review
Validating the quality of the schedule

Schedule Review

Schedule Check Report


Checks for Scheduling Best Practices
Not all categories need to be 0
If there is a valid business reason then leave it as it is
Dont scam the report defeats the purpose

Pre-Analysis Check
Not all schedule issues can be identified through the Schedule Check
Report (e.g. poor logic, inconsistent level of detail)
A quick, coarse analysis can help identify these types of issues
This can be done through:
Duration Quick Risk
Criticality Index
Duration Sensitivity

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New Store Schedule

File | Open | Samples


TrainingNewStore.plan

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Checking the schedule

Before considering a risk analysis,


check the quality of the schedule
Reports | Schedule Check
Report

Produces a report in the PertMaster


Report Viewer
Can be summary or full report
Content can be customized
Can be tagged

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Schedule Checker

Checks schedule quality


Constraints

Start no earlier
than constraint

Open-ended tasks
Start to Finish links
Negative lags
Positive lags
Long lags

Broken logic
Calendars on lags
Link on summary tasks (MS Project)
Duration Validation

Lost opportunity

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Pre-Analysis Check
Validating consistency in level of task detail

Duration Quick Risk

Before running a detailed analysis, it is


valuable to run a quick analysis to further
validate the state of the schedule

Duration Quick Risk can be used to create


3pt estimates based on each activitys
remaining duration

We want to get a feel for what uncertainty


looks like against the deterministic schedule

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Exercise: Duration Quick Risk

Run Duration Quick Risk on the


project:
Risk | Duration Quick Risk

Enter 95%, 100% and 120%


(skewed distributions)

Risk | Run Risk Analysis

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Summary: Duration Quick Risk

Can be applied to All, Selected or Filtered tasks

Use to create minimum, most likely and maximum estimates based on a


percentage of the remaining duration

Gives a feel for uncertainty in the schedule

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Run an Analysis

Risk | Run Risk Analysis

Set Iterations
Set report to be displayed

Click the Options button for additional options


Risk Data
Analysis
Warnings

Click Analyze

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Distribution Graph

During the analysis, the duration, start date and finish date of each task and
the duration and finish date of the entire project is recorded for each
iteration.

By default, the Distribution Graph displays a distribution of the finish date


for the schedule risk analysis.

Use the task list in the left-hand pane to view the distribution for an
individual task, summary, or milestone

To open the Distribution Graph:


Risk | Distribution Graph
Toolbar Button

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Distribution Graph

Shows the result of the risk analysis

Project
Tree

Statistics

Controls
Tabs for Distribution Types

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Distribution Graph

Project Tree (left)


Can navigate to the desired activity
Can expand and contract the tree
Can filter the displayed activities

Histogram (center)
Tabs for Distribution types
Highlighters (can be customized)

Statistics (right)
Summary of results

Controls

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Distribution Graph
New Store
Entire Plan : Finish Date
100% 26/Mar/08
95% 18/Mar/08
90% 14/Mar/08

1000

85% 14/Mar/08
80% 13/Mar/08
75% 12/Mar/08
800

65% 11/Mar/08

Hits

60% 10/Mar/08
55% 10/Mar/08

600

50% 07/Mar/08
45% 07/Mar/08
40% 06/Mar/08
400

35% 06/Mar/08

Cumulative Frequency

70% 11/Mar/08

Cumulative
Probability

30% 05/Mar/08
25% 05/Mar/08
20% 04/Mar/08

200

15% 03/Mar/08
10% 29/Feb/08
5% 28/Feb/08
0

0% 20/Feb/08
28/Feb/08

09/Mar/08

19/Mar/08

Distribution (start of interval)

Distribution Range

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Formatting the Histogram

Format | Graph
Formatting labels, colors, view of the histogram

Format | Highlighters
Create highlighters

Format | Layout
Select what sections are displayed in the histogram view

Format | Statistics Grid


Select the font and font size

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Formatting Highlighters

Format | Highlighters
Opens the Highlighters dialog

Add creates an additional highlighter

Delete completely removes the highlighter

You can toggle the highlighter in the Highlighters pane located directly
beneath the graph

Types of Highlighters
Arrows (point to a single value)
Shade between values (pick two values to shade between)

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Formatting Highlighters Arrows

To create a new Arrow:


Click Add
Select Arrow for Type
Select Value 1 (Deterministic, Target or Percentile)
If Percentile enter the percentile to be highlighted
Choose the line color, line thickness and description

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Formatting Highlighters Shading

To create a new Shade between values highlighter


Click Add
Select Shade between values for Type
Select Value 1 (Deterministic, Target or Percentile)
If Percentile, enter the percentile to be highlighted
Select Value 2 (Deterministic, Target or Percentile)
If percentile, enter the percentile to be highlighted
Choose the line color, line thickness and description

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Identifying & Validating Project Drivers


Tornado Graphs

Identifying Project Drivers

Use the Tornado Graph to identify & validate project drivers

Duration Sensitivity & Criticality Index are most often used

Risk | Tornado Graph

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Identify High Risk Activities

The critical path is useful


Determines the earliest the project can finish
Delay on the critical path delays the project
The path that most deserves risk management

Criticality Index
During the risk analysis, the number of times an activity was critical is
recorded
The percentage of iterations a given activity landed on the critical path =
Criticality Index

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Criticality Index

Criticality identifies activities that are likely to be on the critical path given
the uncertainty in the schedule.

Therefore, reduce durations and/or uncertainty on activities with a high


criticality index to improve the chance of completing the project on time.

100% criticality: If task is delayed, project is delayed.

Focus on the tasks with high criticality index first.

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Exercise: Criticality Index (1 of 1)

Open TrainingDesignBuild_criticality.plan
Unit 1 no longer critical but
has more uncertainty
(company has not made this unit type before)

Unit 2 given less uncertainty


(company has made similar units before)

Unit 2 is on the Traditional Critical Path should we concentrate on Unit 2?

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Criticality Index Shows Unit 1 more risky!

Risk | Run Risk Analysis

CPM shows we should focus on Unit 2?

Risk Analysis shows we should focus on Unit 1

Traditional CPM can Mask Risks!

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Duration Sensitivity

What makes an activity have a high duration sensitivity?


On the critical path
Long duration
Relatively large uncertainty on duration

Sensitivity identifies activities that delay the project finish. Use it to identify
the tasks that are influencing the project finish due to their range of
uncertainty.

If the activities identified in the Duration Sensitivity tornado do not make


sense (key activities missing, minor activities showing as drivers), review the
project schedule many times poor logic is a factor

If the activities appear correct, but out of order, a detailed analysis will
typically yield better results

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Tornado Graph

Tornado Graph is used to display and rank sensitivity, criticality and


cruciality values.

Tabs for Tornado Graphs

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Tornado Graph

Tornado Graph (left)


Shows the activities ranked by sensitivity
Select which activities to view using the
controls
Double-click the bar to be taken to the activity
in the Gantt Chart
Tools | Bookmark Visible Tasks adds a
bookmark to the activity for later reference

Statistics (right)
Displays Analysis Details
Display Settings

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Tornado Graph Duration Sensitivity for a Key Activity

Duration Sensitivity identifies which activities are likely to delay the project

However
We may be interested in the activities that are likely to delay an intermediate
task or milestone

Which activities in a schedule can influence the completion of a intermediate


task or milestone?

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Tornado Graph Sensitivity Settings

Choose Sensitivity Measurement


Persons Product Moment
Spearmans Rank Correlation

Measure Sensitivity of:


Entire Plan
Summary
Activity

With:
All Tasks
Child Tasks Only
Logical Predecessors Only

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Tornado Graph Formatting

Format | Chart
Task Filtering options (same as in controls below)
Bar formatting and coloring

Format | Statistics Font


Select the font and font size

Format | Layout
Select what sections are displayed in the tornado view

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Bookmarks

Bookmarking the tasks in the Tornado allows the activities to be referenced


quickly back in the Gantt chart

Bookmarks can be added, deleted, and filtered

Bookmarks can also be used to navigate


through the Gantt Chart

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Summary: Results

Distribution Graph
Displays the distribution results of the risk analysis
Can view the distribution of the entire project, summary, or activity

Tornado Graph
Displays and ranks sensitivity, criticality and cruciality values

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Summary: Schedule Review

Before running an analysis, use the Schedule Check Report to check for
scheduling best practices

Use Duration Quick Risk to populate the minimum, most likely, and
maximum values in order to run a quick analysis

Sanity check the results of the Duration Quick Risk analysis in the
Tornado Graph

Review the Duration Sensitivity and Criticality Index graphs to identify


and verify the project drivers

If the quick analysis results make sense, then continue with a more detailed
analysis, if not, review and revise the schedule

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PertMaster Risk Methodology

Schedule Review
Best Practices Check
Pre-Analysis Check
Risk Identification
Estimate Uncertainty
Risk Events: Risk Register
Develop Preliminary Risk Model
Enter Estimate Uncertainty
Map Risks to Activities
Preliminary Analysis & Review
Analyze 3pt Estimates
Analyze Risk Events
Final Model & Report
Risk Event plan
Response planning

Based on: PMBOK Chapter 11

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Risk Identification

Estimate Uncertainty
Risky areas of the project
Focus Areas:
Critical path
Near Critical Path
High Risk Activities
Is the uncertainty based on Phase? Area? Sub-area? Contractor?

Risk Events
Use the Project Risk Register
Add additional risks & opportunities as necessary

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PertMaster Risk Methodology

Schedule Review
Best Practices Check
Pre-Analysis Check
Risk Identification
Estimate Uncertainty
Risk Events: Risk Register
Develop Preliminary Risk Model
Enter Estimate Uncertainty
Map Risks to Activities
Preliminary Analysis & Review
Analyze 3pt Estimates
Analyze Risk Events
Final Model & Report
Risk Event plan
Response planning

Based on: PMBOK Chapter 11

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Develop Preliminary Risk Model

Developing the model takes all of the inputs collected in Risk Identification
and applies them in the best possible way

Estimate Uncertainty
Import from Primavera or Microsoft Project
Task Details
Duration Quick Risk
Templated Quick Risk
Correlation

Risk Events
Task Existence
Probabilistic Branching
Risk Register

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Importing from Primavera


Getting the schedule data into PertMaster from P6/P5

Importing from Primavera

File | Primavera

Project in P5/6 database


Can open multiple projects and entire EPS nodes
Can feed back analysis results

Project in P5/6 XER file


Can export from P5 to an XER file
Can not feed back analysis results

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Importing from Primavera P5/6 Setup

If it is the first time connecting to P5/6 from PertMaster, run the Connection
Wizard first

File | Primavera | Connection Wizard

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Importing from Primavera P5/6 Setup

To import data from P5/6 or to store analysis results in P5/6, User Defined
Fields need to be created in P5/6

In P5/6 Enterprise | User Defined Fields

Create the User Defined Fields needed

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Importing from Primavera Mappings

Import mappings
Choose where uncertainty is stored in Primavera
Choose how to import resources / costs

Warnings
Links to other projects
Planning units

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Importing from Primavera Mappings

Select the project(s) to import (P5/6)

Import mappings
Set your planning units
Choose how to import
resources/costs
Choose which Activity Codes/User
Defined fields to import

Warnings
Links to other projects
Planning units

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Importing from Primavera Verifying the Import

Check all dates:


Click on the Import Check sheet

Look at the grey bars these are the dates in Primavera

Start Check and Finish Check user defined fields

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Summary: Importing from Primavera

PertMaster imports a copy of the schedule

Activity codes and Custom Data Items are included in the import

Define Custom Data Items in Primavera prior to importing into PertMaster

Use Custom Data Items to store uncertainty estimates and analysis results

Map the Custom Data Items to the fields in PertMaster

Verify the import on the Import Check sheet in PertMaster

TIP: If you having issues with the P3 file, use the P3 Project File Recovery
Program (PFXW.exe), located in the P3PROGS directory, to rebuild the file

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Importing from Microsoft Project

Project in server database


MSP Server
Can feed back analysis results

Project in local database file (MPD)


MSP 2007 / 2003 / 2000 /
Can feed back analysis results
When asked Append or Overwrite, choose Overwrite

Project in file (MPP)


MSP 2007 / 2003 / 2000 /
Can not feed back analysis results

Project in MPX file


MSP 2000 /
Many other tools
Can not feed back analysis results

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Setting up Microsoft Project

PertMaster can add a custom toolbar to Microsoft Project

File | Microsoft Project | Add Toolbars and Views to MS Project

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Importing into PertMaster

Files can be imported into PertMaster two ways:


Start the import in Microsoft Project using the Open In PertMaster
button on the PertMaster toolbar

Start the import in PertMaster using File | Microsoft Project | Open


Project

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Import Mappings Tasks

The Import Mapping dialog


provides a way to map fields from
Microsoft Project to fields in
PertMaster

There are three tabs, Tasks,


Probabilistic, Resources and Cost

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Importing from Microsoft Project Completing the Import

The project is then opened in PertMaster

Save the file

Review any import warnings

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Importing from Microsoft Project Verifying the Import

Check all dates:


Click on the Import Check sheet

Look at the grey bars these are the dates in Microsoft Project

Start Check and Finish Check user defined fields

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Applying Estimates in PertMaster


Using Templated Quick Risk

Task Details

Estimate uncertainty can be entered for individual tasks

Task Details | Risk And Uncertainty | Duration Uncertainty

Estimates can also be entered directly into


the Minimum Duration, Most Likely Duration
and Maximum Duration columns

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Duration Quick Risk

Used to assign estimates to


activities quickly

Creates minimum, most likely and


maximum estimates based on a
percentage of the remaining
duration of each activity

Can be applied to All, Selected or


Filtered tasks

However, Duration Quick Risk


can be too generic

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Templated Quick Risk

Templated Quick Risk allows duration distributions to be assigned to tasks


based on a template
Creates estimates based on percentages
The template is stored in the plan for reference to can be re-applied
Templates can also be saved and re-used on different plans.

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Templated Quick Risk


Can apply different shapes to different groups of tasks
For Example: Categories tasks by Duration uncertainty

Duration uncertainty

Rationale

Min

Likely

Max

High uncertainty

Duration could double

75%

100%

200%

Medium uncertainty

Could be half as much again

80%

100%

150%

Low uncertainty

Could be -10% / +20%

90%

100%

120%

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Example: Qualitative duration uncertainty

Open TrainingRocket.plan sample


Scroll to see the Duration Uncertainty column

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Example: Qualitative duration uncertainty

Format | Barchart Columns


The Duration Uncertainty column is a user field

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Example: Qualitative duration uncertainty

Risk | Templated Quick Risk


Clear All if there is a template already defined
Set up the template shown below

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Example: Uncertainty by WBS

Can assess duration uncertainty at a higher level

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Example: Uncertainty by WBS

Can assess duration uncertainty at a higher level

Phase uncertainty

Rationale

Min

Likely

Max

A020 Preliminaries

We dont know much about this


phase

75%

100%

200%

A060 - Design

We have some knowledge

85%

100%

150%

A140 - Fabrication

Less uncertain, but are consistently


under estimated

90%

110%

130%

A180 - Testing

We have some knowledge

85%

100%

150%

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Example: Uncertainty by WBS

Risk | Templated Quick Risk


Clear All
Define new template by WBS

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Summary: Templated Quick Risk

Categories tasks
By qualitative uncertainty: High / Medium / Low uncertainty
By discipline:
Design / Engineering / Testing /
By WBS
By when the task happens

Use a different distribution for each category

Re-use templates, achieve consistency


Store organizational knowledge

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Correlation
Why, when and how to use Correlation

Correlation

Measure correlation
Sensitivity analysis
Measure cost / time correlation

To measure correlation:
Risk | Scatter Plot
Toolbar Button
Format | Settings to choose what to measure

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Correlation Scatter Plot

Highlighters can be moved by clicking and dragging


Highlighters can be set using the controls at the bottom of the scatter plot

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Define correlation

Define correlation
Link two uncertain elements in the model - reflect common causes
without needing too much detail
Take account of Central Limit Theorem (CLT)

Example:
Time to train new staff is related to time to install computer systems

To define correlation:
Risk | Correlation
Choose the first uncertain element
Choose Set Correlation
Choose the second uncertain element, and Add
Choose amount of correlation, and OK

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Exercise: Define correlation

Use TrainingRocket.plan
Run the risk analysis
In the Distribution Graph, click Add to Distribution Analyzer (for later
comparison)
Close the Distribution Graph
Scenario:
The project team has identified a strong correlation between A110
Design rocket engine and A160 Fabricate guidance system
There are many common factors between them, which means they are
likely to tend to either both be long or both be short

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Exercise: Define correlation

Risk | Correlation
Choose A110, and Set Correlation
Choose A160, and Add
Set the strength to 100%

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Exercise: Define correlation

Step through and run the risk analysis


Check that the durations of both tasks move somewhat in step

How has the correlation changed the project finish date distribution?
In the Distribution Graph, choose Add to Distribution Analyzer
Choose Reports | Distribution Analyzer

Right-click on the left


to name them clearly

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The effect of correlation

Correlation tends to make project finish date and cost distributions wider

Negative correlation can also apply (and makes them narrower)


For example, longer design means shorter manufacture?

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Define Correlation

Other ways to define correlation


Correlate groups of variables together
Show correlations in a column
In the Risk Register, when a risk impacts many tasks

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Correlation Central Limit Theorem

What is the Central Limit Theorem?


A mathematical theorem that states when large numbers of random
samples are combined they converge towards a central limit- the mean
of the resulting normal distribution

How does this apply to a risk analysis?


The more detail/activities (samples), the less variance - unless you have
correlation

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Example: Correlation and level of detail

Create the plan below:

Are the two versions of this project the same?

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Example: Correlation and level of detail

Run the analysis, and compare P1 and P2 durations with the Distribution
Analyzer

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Example: Correlation and level of detail

They are not the same, because at


a different level of detail

Correlation makes them the same

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Correlation and level of detail

Add correlation to reflect reality as best as possible within reason

Easiest to use Templated Quick Risk, when categorizing by WBS

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Resources and Cost Uncertainty


Modeling cost-loaded resources

Cost Uncertainty

Costs can be assigned to individual activities and WBS items in a project

A cost assignment can be time-dependent (e.g. labor) or time-independent


(e.g. materials)

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Time independent costs

Scenario: Locate premises involves hiring an agency which is a fixed fee of


$5,000.

Insert the Cost (Remaining) column.


Plan | Resources: Add a resource with a spread loading.

Assign 5000 units to the task Locate premises


Step through risk analysis and cost does not change

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Time dependent costs

Scenario: Refurbish premises will need 3 decorators, at $200 per day each.

Plan | Resources: Add a resource with a Normal loading and cost $200.

Assign 3 decorators to the task Refurbish premises

Step through risk analysis and see cost change

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Cost uncertainty

So far the cost variation in our analysis is due to the uncertainty of the task
durations.

Task costs / resources can also be assigned distributions...

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Uncertainty on Fixed costs

Scenario: The $5,000 agency fee for locating premises was a good guess,
but it could be different. It will be between $4,000 and $7,000.

Add uncertainty to the agency fee resource assignment

Use a Discrete distribution so the model reflects our scenario.

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Uncertainty on time related cost

Scenario: The number of decorators employed could be between 2 and 5.

Add uncertainty to the decorator resource assignment

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Uncertainty on resource rate

Scenario: The day rate paid to the decorators is uncertain. It will be


somewhere between $150 and $300 per day.
Assign uncertainty to the decorator resource daily cost (Plan | Resources)

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Summary: Resource & Cost Uncertainty

Costs are assigned to activities through resources

Resources can be assigned cost that are time-dependent (normal loading)


or time-independent (spread loading)

Quantity uncertainty is applied to resources assigned at the activity level

Rate uncertainty is applied to resources in the resource definition dialog

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Introduction to Risk Events


Modeling risk events and uncertainty explicitly

Estimate Uncertainty or Risk Events?

Estimate Uncertainty: We cannot give an exact duration for an activity.


Unpredictable things can happen that increase or reduce an activity duration

Risk Events: There maybe events that have a probability of occurrence and
when they do occur they have an impact on the schedule

Example - Travel to Work


Uncertainty: It takes between 25 and 45 minutes to travel to work. There
are many reasons why the journey varies by 20 minutes. In fact too many
and too minor for us to identify the specific events that cause this variation.

Risk: There is a 5% chance there will be an accident adding another 25 to


45 minutes to the journey. This is an event that sometimes occurs and has a
significant impact.

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Uncertainty vs. Risk Events

Minimum

Most Likely
Duration Variability

Maximum
Maximum
Risk Event Risk Event

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Modeling Risk Events

Single Impact
Task Existence

Series of Impacts
Probabilistic branching

Multiple Impacts to Multiple Activities


Risk Register

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Exercise: Risk event

Use TrainingNewStore.plan

While refurbishing premises, there is a 20% chance that hidden wiring may
be found discovered; resulting in a 10-20d delay.

Modeling the risk:


Add a new task before Refurbish Premises
Name this task Risk Summary: Refurbish Premises

Now add a new task after Refurbish premises


Name this task Risk: Hidden Wiring Found

Remove the links from the Refurbish Premises task and reinstate them
on the Risk Summary: Refurbish Premises task
Make Hidden Wiring Found the successor to the Refurbish Premises
task

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Exercise: Risk event

Right-click on Risk: Hidden Wiring Found, and choose Existence Risk


Click On and set the correct probability

Run the risk analysis, and step through.

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Summary: Task Existence

Task Existence can be assigned as a percentage to any activity

During the risk analysis the activity will occur for only a percentage of the
iterations

Task Existence should be used to model events that have a probability of


occurrence

Give activities with less than 100% existence a zero duration so they do not
impact the deterministic finish date

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Probabilistic Branching
Reflecting reality in your risk model

Probabilistic branching

Used to express uncertainty in paths that may be taken

Select configuration

Option 1

Design fuel system

Option 2

Design rocket engine


Design fuel system

Option 3

Design frame
Design rocket engine
Design fuel system

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Example: Probabilistic branching

After A090 - Select configuration, either:


Option 1: 20% likely
Use an off-the-shelf solution for the rocket which already has a fuel system
and rocket engine, so we dont need the following 2 tasks
Option 2: 30% likely
Use an off-the-shelf solution for the missile which already has a fuel system,
so we dont need the following task
Option 3: 50% likely
Design it all ourselves, so we need to do all the following 3 tasks

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Example: Probabilistic branching

Add the three options as milestones, and make successors to:


A090 - Select configuration
Link appropriately:
Option 1 successors: Design fuel system
Option 2 successors:

Design fuel system, Design rocket engine

Option 3 successors:

Design fuel system, Design rocket engine, Design frame

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Example: Probabilistic branching

Double-click A090 - Select configuration


Risk and Uncertainty | Probabilistic Branch
Check On
Set the probabilities
They must add up to 100%

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Summary: Probabilistic Branching

Probabilistic Branching is used to model the probability of a series of


tasks occurring

Also when the outcomes are exclusive, i.e. only one of the outcomes occurs

Probabilistic branches can be nested inside other probabilistic branches

Probabilistic branches can be combined with Task Existence

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Risk Register
Including risk events from CRiTer in an analysis

Risk Register

Provides the ability to incorporate a qualitative risk register in a quantitative


risk analysis

Capture the pre-mitigation assessment, mitigation plan, and post mitigation


assessment

Risks can be mapped to the specific activities they impact in the schedule

The quantitative risk analysis gives combined impact of risks on the


schedule completion date and cost

Can use the Distribution Analyzer to compare the Pre- and Post-mitigation
scenarios

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Risk Register

Use TrainingRocket.plan
Think of three risks that could affect it
Add them to the risk register
Risk | Register

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Risk Register Describing Risks

Fully describe the three risks


Title a concise description of what it is that may or may not happen
(there is a risk that )
Cause background conditions (ideally facts)
Description full description of what it is that may or may not happen
Effect the consequences (be specific in terms of the affected area of
the project)

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Risk Register Assessing Risks

For each risk, give qualitative assessments (High, Medium, Low etc.) for:

Probability
Schedule impact
Cost impact
Performance impact

The scores indicate the overall rating of the risks

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Risk Register Risk Scores

Try to make one risk red by increasing one of its assessments

Probability
Schedule impact
Cost impact
Performance impact

Try to make one risk green by decreasing one of its assessments

Change them back afterwards

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Risk Register Risk Scores

Edit | Risk Scoring

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Risk Register Adding impact types

Add a new impact type that could apply to one of your risks

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Risk Register Adding impact types

Assess the risk for the new impact type

The score will only change if the new impact types assessment is higher
than all the others
Schedule impact
Cost impact
Performance impact

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Risk Register Mapping to tasks

Map each risk to specific tasks

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Risk Register Refining Impacts

Refine quantitative assessments


Can use qualitative assessments as starting point
Clicking on Quantified allows impacts to be refined

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PertMaster Risk Methodology

Schedule Review
Best Practices Check
Pre-Analysis Check
Risk Identification
Estimate Uncertainty
Risk Events: Risk Register
Develop Preliminary Risk Model
Enter Estimate Uncertainty
Map Risks to Activities
Preliminary Analysis & Review
Analyze 3pt Estimates
Analyze Risk Events
Final Model & Report
Risk Event plan
Response planning

Based on: PMBOK Chapter 11

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Preliminary Analysis & Review

Build Impacted Risk Plan

Run Analysis

Set Options
Iterations
Task Percentiles
Sensitivity

View Results
Distribution Graph
Tornado Graphs
Scatter Plot
Distribution Analyzer

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Build Impacted Risk Plan

Build the impacted risk plan


Risk | Build Impacted Risk Plan

In the Risk Register: Tools | Build Impacted Risk


Plan

The risk is added as a task to model:


where in the project the additional delays /
costs occur
the size of the impacts
the likelihood of the impacts
the deterministic duration

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Distribution Analyzer

Allows the distributions from outputs to be compared

To open the Distribution Analyzer


Reports | Distribution Analyzer
Toolbar Button

If the report contains no data it will prompt to import data

Click Yes to select data to be imported

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Distribution Analyzer Import Data

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Distribution Analyzer Import Data

With the Import Data to report dialog open


Check the files to include in the report
To open additional files, click Open and select the file
Choose the Type of data to import
Select which tasks to import
Click Import Data
If risk data is missing, click OK to run the risk analysis

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Distribution Analyzer

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Distribution Analyzer

Report Tree (left)


Select to View S-Curves or Histograms
Select which data to view in report
Select which line items to view in report

Distribution Report (right)


Data Table (bottom)
Shows the data used for the S-curves
Highlight percentile (lower right corner)
With 2 data sets selected will highlight and report variance between
the two
With 3 or more data sets selected will highlight values (will not
calculate variance)

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Distribution Analyzer Formatting

File | Import Data


Opens the Import data to report dialog

View | S-Curves
View | Histograms
View | Both

Tools | Options
View Histogram as: Bars or Trace

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Summary: Results

Distribution Analyzer
Allows multiple distributions to be compared entire plans, activities
Can compare finish date, start date, durations, cost, etc.

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PertMaster Risk Methodology

Schedule Review
Best Practices Check
Pre-Analysis Check
Risk Identification
Estimate Uncertainty
Risk Events: Risk Register
Develop Preliminary Risk Model
Enter Estimate Uncertainty
Map Risks to Activities
Preliminary Analysis & Review
Analyze 3pt Estimates
Analyze Risk Events
Final Model & Report
Risk Event plan
Response planning

Based on: PMBOK Chapter 11

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Response Planning
Developing and modeling risk mitigation plans

Risk Register Mitigation overview

Where we
could be

Where we
are now

How we could get there

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Risk Register Adding mitigation

Add two mitigation actions for the response to the risk


Give them Start and Finish dates
Give them an estimated cost

For the other risks, make post-mitigation assessments the same as for premitigation

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Risk Register Running the analysis

Tools | Build Impacted Risk Plan

Build a pre-mitigation plan only

Run the risk analysis

Compare finish date distribution with the plan before you added your risks

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Risk Register Risk significance

Show a duration sensitivity tornado


In the Display mode section, choose Risks
Note the significance on project duration of your risk

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Tornado Graph Risk Mode

When the analysis includes risks from the Risk Register, use Risk Mode to
review the sensitivity analysis of the impact of the risks

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Risk Register Mitigation benefit

Show the effect of mitigation on project duration and project cost


Build both Pre- and Post-mitigation plans
Reports | Distribution Analyzer
If it already has distributions, File | Clear Report and then
File Import Data (see next slide for example comparison)

Optional: Show the effect of the specific mitigation of your risk

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Risk Register Compare S-curves

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Risk Register Sanctioning mitigation

Choose an action to approve and sanction


File | Return to plan
Add the action as a task to the project, with duration, cost and links

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Risk Register Sanctioning mitigation

Risk | Register
Mark the action as Sanctioned

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Risk Register Sanctioning mitigation

Specify the corresponding task in the project that will complete the action

The action changes status to Planned


and takes the tasks dates and costs

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Creating & Displaying P-Schedules


Using probabilistic schedule data
to track and manage uncertainty

P-Schedules

PertMaster calculates the percentile date (e.g. P50, P80, P90) for each
activity in the schedule

Selected percentile dates can be assigned to each activity and then


displayed on the Gantt chart

Deterministic Bar
P50 Bar
P80 Bar

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Exercise: Creating P-Schedules

Verify Task User Fields have been


created to store P-Schedule data

Plan | Plan Information | Task User


Fields

If needed, create additional fields

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Exercise: Creating P-Schedules

Risk | Run Risk Analysis, and choose More


Check Create Task Risk Percentiles
Click Settings button:

Click OK and then Analyze


Close the Distribution Graph
Double-click on an activity and the P-schedule dates can be seen in the
Task Details pane: User Fields | Dates

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Exercise: Displaying P-Schedules

Insert | Insert Sheet


Choose Risk Outputs.sheet

Deterministic Bar
P50 Bar
P80 Bar

The sheet is a different view on the same data


It shows the P50 and P80 dates in columns and on the Gantt chart

To change the formatting of the P-Schedule: Format | Custom Task Bars

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Using P-Schedules as a baseline

Customer expectations have been set at the 80% date

The P80 schedule can then be used as the customer baseline


Shows a scheduling of the tasks that give the 80% finish date
Each task shows when it will probably (at P80) have started and
finished

Note:
Continue to use deterministic schedule as your baseline (Parkinsons
law!)
Only use the P80 schedule to set customer expectations

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Summary: P-Schedules

Chosen percentiles can be calculated for each activity in a schedule

The P-Schedule dates are often used as a risked baseline

The P50 to P90 range are typical P-schedules used

The P-schedules can be displayed on the Gantt chart as bars or markers

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Updating Primavera
Sending data back in to Primavera

Updating Primavera

Can feed back P-schedules and


sensitivities
P5/6
File | Primavera | Update
Primavera Project

P3
File | Primavera | Update
Primavera P3 Project

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P5/6 Export Mappings


Click the Load button and locate
the file
P3eMappingJavaAPI_01.mfP3e
(located in the Others folder in the
PertMaster installation directory)
Click Open
Click Update Now to update P3

P3 Export Mappings
Click the Load button and locate
the file P3Mappings.mfP3
(located in the Others folder in the
PertMaster installation directory)
Click Open
Click Update Now to update P3

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Updating Primavera Viewing Results

P5/6
View | Layout | Open
Choose layout: Risk Output - User Dates
If layout not in the list
Choose Import
Navigate to C:\Program Files\PertMaster
Software\Pertmaster78x\Others
Choose layout file: Risk Output - User Dates.plf

P3
View | Layout | Open
Choose layout: Risk - Output + Bars
If layout not in the list
Layouts can be transferred to other P3 projects using the View |
Layout | Transfer

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Updating Microsoft Project


Sending data back into MSP

Updating Microsoft Project

To send the results of the analysis back to Microsoft Project, select the icon
on the toolbar, or File | Microsoft Project | Update Project

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Updating Microsoft Project Mappings

The Microsoft Project Mappings


dialog will open

If the mappings are blank:


Click the Load button and
locate the file
MSPMappings01.mfMSP
(usually located in the Others
folder in the Pertmaster8x
installation directory)
Click Open

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Updating Microsoft Project Mappings (cont.)

The default mapping will now be


displayed in the mappings dialog

Additional field mappings can be


added

Click Save to save the mapping


file to reuse later

Check Open in MSP after Update

Click Update Now to update


Microsoft Project

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Updating Microsoft Project

The Microsoft Project file will be updated with the results of the analysis

If the option was selected, the file will be opening in Microsoft Project

To view the results, select the view to display from the toolbar or menu

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PertMaster Risk Methodology

Schedule Review
Best Practices Check
Pre-Analysis Check
Risk Identification
Estimate Uncertainty
Risk Events: Risk Register
Develop Preliminary Risk Model
Enter Estimate Uncertainty
Map Risks to Activities
Preliminary Analysis & Review
Analyze 3pt Estimates
Analyze Risk Events
Final Model & Report
Risk Event plan
Response planning

Based on: PMBOK Chapter 11

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Course Summary

Risk Analysis Theory


Distributions skewed towards minimum mean chance of hitting finish is
less than 50%
Parallel paths give rise to less chance of completing project on time
Schedule types: Most likely, Aggressive, Cautious and Scale to Fit
Key is to assess risk and uncertainty, to give realistic picture

Schedule Review
Schedule Check Report checks for scheduling best practices
Pre-analysis check (Duration Quick Risk & Tornado Graph) to further
verify schedule

Risk Identification
Risks can be modeled through Estimate Uncertainty and Risk Events

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Course Summary

Develop Preliminary Model


Risk distributions can be imported from Primavera & MS Project
Templated Quick Risk provides a consistent method for apply risk
assessments that can then be saved and reused
Correlation can be measured and defined
Risk events can be modeled though Task Existence, Probabilistic
Branching, and the Risk Register
Task Existence is used for single activities, and Probabilistic
Branching is used for groups of activities
The Risk Register allows qualitative and quantitative assessment and
analysis

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Course Summary

Preliminary Analysis and Review


Risk Analysis Options can be set through the More button
Risks from the Risk Register are included in the analysis by building an
impacted risk plan
Distribution Graph shows the results of the risk analysis
Tornado Graph shows project drivers (sensitivity & criticality)
Distribution Analyzer allows multiple result sets to be compared

Final Model and Report


The Risk Register can be used to model mitigation plans
P-Schedules are used to display risked-baselines to a given level of
confidence
Primavera and MS Project can be updated with the results of the
analysis

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Additional Reference Material


Advanced concepts

Probabilistic Cash Flow


Modeling resource and cost projections

Probabilistic cash flow

Understand the full effect of risk / uncertainty


on cost
on schedule
on both cost and schedule together

Make sure analysis creates data


If option is grayed out, check
settings

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Example: Probabilistic cash flow

Using Rocket sample with the penalty

Include the risks, pre-mitigation

Run the analysis

Create probabilistic cash flow graph

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Uncertain spend curves - cumulative

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Uncertain spend curves by period

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Uncertain spend curves vs. deterministic

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Uncertain spend curves football plot

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Management Costs
Modeling LOE costs, incentives and LDs

Management Costs

There may be activities whose duration is dependent on the duration of


other activities in the schedule:

Project management
Site supervision
Site security
Equipment hire

These type of activities can be modeled using HAMMOCKS

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Exercise: Management Costs (1 of 2)

An agency will be hired to help us advertise for, interview and hire staff

Insert a new activity


above Train staff
Change it to a hammock by typing h in duration
Link the hammock to Advertise for staff and
Hire Staff as shown below:

Right click to insert a new


activity:

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Exercise: Management Costs (2 of 2)

Risk | Run Risk Analysis


In the Distribution graph, choose Employment Agency Hire
Click on the Duration tab

The duration distribution can be used to view the uncertainty on an activities


duration

Can add a labor resource to analyze the cost of the hammock

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Damages

There are damages payable if the new store is not open within a specified
time of signing the lease

The amount of time we are likely to have to pay damages can be modeled
with a hammock

During the risk analysis the hammock can stretch to record the number of
days late the project is:

Hammock extends with project,


recording days of damages

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Damages

The impact of LDs (liquidated damages) can be modeled.


E.g. costs associated with exceeding agreed contract dates in a project

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Exercise: Modeling Damages

Add a finish milestone activity Damages start


Add a hammock activity Damages
Link the milestone to the hammock (Start-to-Start)
Link the Store ready for opening to the hammock (Finish-to-Finish)
Constrain the milestone to 10/Mar/08 on Task Details | Constraints tab,
using the Must Start On field.

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Exercise: Damages histogram

Run risk analysis and view the duration distribution for the Damages task:

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Exercise: Damages Calendar

Damages are going to be charged 7 days a week. Currently the Damages


activity is using a standard 5 day week calendar

Choose Damages and choose General tab in Task Details

Change the Calendar to 7 day

Re-run the risk analysis

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Exercise: Restoring Critical Path

The critical path has been lost as the task Store ready for opening is no
longer the last task in the network

Double-click on the task Store ready for opening


Select the General tab and select Always Critical option

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Exercise: Add penalty to Rocket

Use TrainingRocket.plan
Model a penalty of $50,000 per day for late rocket delivery beyond 31st
December 2009.

What does the penalty distribution look like? And with risks?

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Revenue Modeling
NPV and IRR

Revenue Modeling

Add a hammock to end of Rocket plan, Revenue.


Add the project finish milestone as a FS predecessor.
Set a Period end finish milestone, must start on 31/12/2012 this is when
we will count revenue until.

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Revenue Modeling

Add a resource called REV for revenue, normal profile, at $50,000 per day.

Run Risk analysis to identify the chances of project being in profit


How does mitigation increase the chances of making a profit?

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Conditional Branching
Modeling conditional impacts

Conditional Branching

Modeling specific project conditions and consequences


The logic is often simple, but cannot be expressed using normal project
planning logic

Examples:
If the cost of a task exceeds $10k, then an approval delay is incurred
If configuration selection slips into May, then we cannot buy off-theshelf

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Example: Conditional branching macro

If configuration selection slips into May, then we cannot buy off-the-shelf

Select configuration

Option 1

Design fuel system

Option 2

Design rocket engine

1st May

Design fuel system

Option 3
The only option is option 3

Design frame
Design rocket engine
Design fuel system

PertMaster Ltd 2

Example: Conditional branching macro

If configuration selection slips into May, then we cannot buy off-the-shelf

Tools | Macros | Visual Basic Editor


Navigate to ThisPlan under the TrainingRocket plan.
Double-click on ThisPlan to open a window on the right

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Example: Conditional branching macro

Choose the Plan from the (General) drop down at the top-left:

This adds a new default sub routine:

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Example: Conditional branching macro

Use the drop down on the right to add the AfterRiskIteration sub routine:

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Example: Conditional branching macro

In the Plan_AfterRiskIteration routine type this code:

The configuration selection tasks ID is A090

Option 3s ID
Note: In your plan this may be different

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Example: Conditional branching macro

Check your code is as follows:

Close the Visual Basic editor. The code will be saved as part of the
PertMaster plan.

In PertMaster run risk analysis and step through some iterations. Check
conditional branch is operating as expected.
Note: The probabilistic branch can still operate when the conditional branch
is not selected.

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Macro uses

Conditional branching
Modeling specific project conditions and consequences

Interfacing with other applications


Pulling in data automatically from other applications, e.g. Microsoft
Excel
Sending data to other applications, e.g. Oracle Projects

Producing custom reports


Automatically building reports, e.g. in Word or Excel

Enhancing PertMaster

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