First

First Solar
Solar Plane
Plane Flight
Flight
19/04/2013
19/04/2013

What
What is
is Project
Project Risk?
Risk?

Project Risk is an uncertain event or condition that, if occurs, has

a positive or negative effect on one or more project objectives
such as scope, schedule, cost and quality.

Some
Some Risk
Risk Conditions
Conditions
Risk conditions may include aspects of the
projects or organizations environment that
contributes to project risk:
Immature project management practices
Lack of integrated management systems
Concurrent multiple projects
Dependency on external participants who are outside
the direct project control
Project manager is too optimist

Positive
Positive Risk
Risk
Definition: Positive Risk
Positive risk is the chance that your objectives will produce too much
of a good thing. Positive risks are deemed as undesirable despite
being positive at face value

Positive Risk As An Opportunity :

Risk-taking is the process of accepting risk. Examples of risk-taking
include investing, developing new products and changing business
processes. Risk-taking is the basis of economic progress. It's often
positive.

Risk
Risk Management
Management Process
Process
Risk
Uncertain or chance events that planning can not
overcome or control.

Risk Management
A proactive attempt to recognize and manage internal
events and external threats that affect the likelihood of a
projects success.
What can go wrong (risk event).
How to minimize the risk events impact (consequences).
What can be done before an event occurs (anticipation).
What to do when an event occurs (contingency plans).

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The
The Risk
Risk Event
Event Graph
Graph

FIGURE 7.1
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Risk
Risk Managements
Managements Benefits
Benefits
A proactive rather than reactive approach.
Reduces surprises and negative consequences.
Prepares the project manager to take advantage
of appropriate risks.
Provides better control over the future.
Improves chances of reaching project performance
objectives within budget and on time.

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The
TheRisk
Risk
Management
Management
Process
Process

FIGURE 7.2
712

Managing
Managing Risk
Risk
Step 1: Risk Identification
Generate a list of possible risks through brainstorming,
problem identification and risk profiling.
Macro risks first, then specific events

Step 2: Risk Assessment

Scenario analysis for event probability and impact
Risk assessment matrix
Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA)
Probability analysis
Decision trees, NPV, and PERT

Semiquantitative scenario analysis

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714

The
TheRisk
RiskBreakdown
Breakdown Structure
Structure(RBS)
(RBS)

FIGURE 7.3
715

Partial
PartialRisk
RiskProfile
Profile for
for Product
Product Development
DevelopmentProject
Project

FIGURE 7.4
716

Defined
DefinedConditions
Conditionsfor
forImpact
Impact Scales
Scalesof
of aaRisk
Riskon
onMajor
Major
Project
ProjectObjectives
Objectives(Examples
(Examplesfor
fornegative
negativeimpacts
impacts only)
only)

FIGURE 7.5
717

Risk
Risk Assessment
Assessment Form
Form

Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA)

Impact Probability Detection = Risk Value
FIGURE 7.6
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Risk
Risk Severity
Severity Matrix
Matrix
Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA)
Impact Probability Detection = Risk Value

FIGURE 7.7
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