Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
Decision Analysis
To accompany
Quantitative Analysis for Management, Tenth Edition,
by Render, Stair, and Hanna
Power Point slides created by Jeff Heyl
Introduction
What is involved in making a good
decision?
Decision theory is an analytic and
systematic approach to the study of
decision making
A good decision is one that is based
on logic, considers all available data
and possible alternatives, and the
quantitative approach described here
32
5.
6.
33
34
35
FAVORABLE
MARKET ($)
UNFAVORABLE
MARKET ($)
200,000
180,000
100,000
20,000
Do nothing
Table 3.1
36
Types of Decision-Making
Environments
Type 1: Decision making under certainty
Decision maker knows with certainty the
consequences of every alternative or
decision choice
Type 2: Decision making under uncertainty
The decision maker does not know the
probabilities of the various outcomes
Type 3: Decision making under risk
The decision maker knows the
probabilities of the various outcomes
37
Maximax (optimistic)
2.
Maximin (pessimistic)
3.
4.
5.
Minimax regret
2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
38
Maximax
Used to find the alternative that maximizes
the maximum payoff
Locate the maximum payoff for each alternative
Select the alternative with the maximum
number
STATE OF NATURE
ALTERNATIVE
FAVORABLE
MARKET ($)
UNFAVORABLE
MARKET ($)
MAXIMUM IN
A ROW ($)
Construct a large
plant
200,000
Construct a small
plant
100,000
20,000
100,000
Do nothing
Table 3.2
180,000
200,000
Maximax
39
Maximin
Used to find the alternative that maximizes
the minimum payoff
Locate the minimum payoff for each alternative
Select the alternative with the maximum
number
STATE OF NATURE
ALTERNATIVE
FAVORABLE
MARKET ($)
UNFAVORABLE
MARKET ($)
MINIMUM IN
A ROW ($)
Construct a large
plant
200,000
180,000
180,000
Construct a small
plant
100,000
20,000
20,000
Do nothing
Table 3.3
Maximin
2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
3 10
alternative
Select the alternative with the highest value
Weighted average = (maximum in row)
+ (1 )(minimum in row)
3 11
STATE OF NATURE
ALTERNATIVE
FAVORABLE
MARKET ($)
UNFAVORABLE
MARKET ($)
CRITERION
OF REALISM
( = 0.8)$
Construct a large
plant
200,000
Construct a small
plant
100,000
20,000
76,000
Do nothing
180,000
124,000
Realism
Table 3.4
2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
3 12
FAVORABLE
MARKET ($)
UNFAVORABLE
MARKET ($)
ROW
AVERAGE ($)
Construct a large
plant
200,000
180,000
10,000
Construct a small
plant
100,000
20,000
40,000
Do nothing
Equally likely
0
Table 3.5
2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
3 13
Minimax Regret
Based on opportunity loss or regret,
regret the
difference between the optimal profit and
actual payoff for a decision
Create an opportunity loss table by determining
3 14
Minimax Regret
STATE OF NATURE
Opportunity
Loss Tables
FAVORABLE
MARKET ($)
UNFAVORABLE
MARKET ($)
200,000 200,000
0 (180,000)
200,000 100,000
0 (20,000)
200,000 0
00
Table 3.6
STATE OF NATURE
ALTERNATIVE
FAVORABLE
MARKET ($)
UNFAVORABLE
MARKET ($)
180,000
100,000
20,000
Do nothing
200,000
0
Table 3.7
2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
3 15
Minimax Regret
STATE OF NATURE
ALTERNATIVE
FAVORABLE
MARKET ($)
UNFAVORABLE
MARKET ($)
MAXIMUM IN
A ROW ($)
Construct a large
plant
180,000
180,000
Construct a small
plant
100,000
20,000
100,000
Do nothing
200,000
Minimax
200,000
Table 3.8
3 16
In-Class Example 1
Lets practice what weve learned. Use the decision table
State of Nature
Good
Market
($)
Average
Market
($)
Poor
Market
($)
Construct a
large plant
75,000
25,000
-40,000
Construct a
small plant
100,000
35,000
-60,000
Do nothing
Alternative
3 17
Averag
e
Market
($)
Poor
Market
($)
Construct a
large plant
75,000
25,000
-40,000
75,000
Construct a
small plant
100,000
35,000
-60,000
100,000
Do nothing
Alternative
Maximax
3 18
Poor
Market
($)
Construct a
large plant
75,000
25,000
-40,000
-40,000
Construct a
small plant
100,000
35,000
-60,000
-60,000
Do nothing
Alternative
Maximin
3 19
In-Class Example 1:
Minimax Regret Opportunity Loss Table
State of Nature
Maximum
Opp.
Loss
Good Average
Market Market
($)
($)
Poor
Market
($)
Construct a
large plant
25,000
10,000
40,000
40,000
Construct a
small plant
60,000
60,000
Do nothing
100,000
35,000
100,000
Alternative
3 20
Average
Market
($)
Poor
Market
($)
Construct a
large plant
25,000
8,333
-13,333
20,000
Construct a
small plant
33,333
11,665
-20,000
25,000
Do nothing
Alternative
Avg
3 21
In-Class Example 1:
Criterion of Realism
=.6
State of Nature
Good Average
Market Market
($)
($)
Poor
Market
($)
Construct a
large plant
45,000
-16,000
29,000
Construct a
small plant
60,000
-24,000
36,000
Do nothing
Alternative
Maximum
3 22
3 23
3 24
FAVORABLE
MARKET ($)
UNFAVORABLE
MARKET ($)
EMV ($)
Construct a large
plant
200,000
180,000
10,000
Construct a small
plant
100,000
20,000
40,000
0.50
0.50
Do nothing
Probabilities
Table 3.9
Largest EMV
3 25
dont know, until after we pay, what the research will tell us
EVwPI = (best payoff for first state of nature)
x (probability of first state of nature)
+ (best payoff for second state of nature)
x (probability of second state of nature)
+ + (best payoff for last state of
nature)
x (probability of last state of nature)
3 26
3 27
3 28
3 29
EVwPI
State of Nature
Alternative
Favorable Market
($)
Unfavorable
Market ($)
EMV
Construct a large
plant
200,000
-180,000
10,000
Construct a small
plant
100,000
-20,000
40,000
200,000
EVwPI = 100,000
Do nothing
Perfect Information
Compute EVwPI
The best alternative with a favorable market is to build a large
plant with a payoff of $200,000. In an unfavorable market the
choice is to do nothing with a payoff of $0
EVwPI = ($200,000)*.5 + ($0)(.5) = $100,000
3 30
In-Class Example
Using the table below compute EMV, EV wPI, and
EVPI.
State of Nature
Good
Market
($)
Average
Market
($)
Poor
Market
($)
Construct
large plant
75,000
25,000
-40,000
Construct
small plant
100,000
35,000
-60,000
Do nothing
Probability
0.25
0.50
0.25
Alternative
3 31
In-Class Example:
EMV and EVwPI Solution
State of Nature
Good
Market
($)
Average
Market
($)
Poor
Market
($)
EMV
Construct
large plant
75,000
25,000
-40,000
21,250
Construct
small plant
100,000
35,000
-60,000
27,500
Do nothing
Probability
0.25
0.50
0.25
Alternative
3 32
In-Class Example:
EVPI Solution
EVPI = EVwPI - max(EMV)
EVwPI = $100,000*0.25 + $35,000*0.50
+0*0.25
= $42,500
EVPI = $ 42,500 - $27,500
= $ 15,000
2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
3 33
3 34
Favorable
Market ($)
Unfavorable
Market ($)
Construct a
large plant
200,000
-180,000
Construct a
small plant
100,000
-20,000
Do nothing
0.50
0.50
Probabilities
3 35
ALTERNATIVE
FAVORABLE
MARKET ($)
UNFAVORABLE
MARKET ($)
EOL
200,000 200,000
0-(-180,000)
90,000
200,000
-100,000
0-(-20,000)
60,000
Do nothing
200,000 - 0
0-0
Probabilities
0.50
100,000
0.50
3 36
Thompson Lumber:
Opportunity Loss Table
STATE OF NATURE
ALTERNATIVE
FAVORABLE
MARKET ($)
UNFAVORABLE
MARKET ($)
EOL
Construct a large
plant
180,000
90,000
Construct a small
plant
100,000
20,000
60,000
Do nothing
200,000
100,000
0.50
0.50
Probabilities
3 37
FAVORABLE
MARKET ($)
UNFAVORABLE
MARKET ($)
EOL
180,000
90,000
Construct a small
plant
100,000
20,000
60,000
Do nothing
200,000
100,000
0.50
0.50
Probabilities
Table 3.10
Minimum EOL
3 38
EOL
The minimum EOL will always
minimum EOL
3 39
Sensitivity Analysis
Sensitivity analysis examines how our
3 40
Sensitivity Analysis
EMV(Large Plant) = $200,000P $180,000)(1 P)
= $200,000P $180,000 + $180,000P
= $380,000P $180,000
EMV(Small Plant) = $100,000P $20,000)(1 P)
= $100,000P $20,000 + $20,000P
= $120,000P $20,000
EMV(Do Nothing) = $0P + 0(1 P)
= $0
3 41
Sensitivity Analysis
EMV Values
$300,000
$200,000
Point 2
$100,000
0
$100,000
$200,000
Point 1
.615
Values of P
Figure 3.1
2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
3 42
Sensitivity Analysis
Point 1:
EMV(do nothing) = EMV(small plant)
0 $120,000 P $20,000
20,000
P
0.167
120,000
Point 2:
EMV(small plant) = EMV(large plant)
$120,000 P $20,000 $380,000 P $180,000
160,000
P
0.615
260,000
2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
3 43
Sensitivity Analysis
BEST
ALTERNATIVE
RANGE OF P
VALUES
Do nothing
EMV Values
0.167 0.615
$300,000
$200,000
Point 2
$100,000
0
$100,000
$200,000
Point 1
.615
Values of P
Figure 3.1
2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
3 44
Decision Trees
Any problem that can be presented in a
3 45
Five Steps to
Decision Tree Analysis
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
3 46
sequential order
Squares represent decision nodes
Circles represent states of nature nodes
Lines or branches connect the decisions
nodes and the states of nature
3 47
A Decision Node
ct nt
u
tr la
s
n eP
o
C arg
L
Construct
Small Plant
Do
Unfavorable Market
Favorable Market
Unfavorable Market
No
th
in
g
Figure 3.2
2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
3 48
= (0.5)($200,000) + (0.5)($180,000)
Favorable Market (0.5)
ct nt
u
tr la
s
n eP
o
C arg
L
Construct
Small Plant
Do
No
th
in
g
Payoffs
$200,000
$180,000
$100,000
$20,000
= (0.5)($100,000)
+ (0.5)($20,000)
Figure 3.3
$0
2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
3 49
3 50
Payoffs
Second Decision
Point
)
45
.
(0
y ts e
e
rv ul abl
Su Res vor
1 Sur Fa
ve
Re y (
Ne su 0.5
5)
ga lts
tiv
e
g
Lar
nt
Pla
e
Small
Plant
2
3
Do
Not
Con
duc
tS
Figure 3.4
$190,000
Unfavorable Market (0.22)
$190,000
Favorable Market (0.78)
$90,000
Unfavorable Market (0.22)
$30,000
No Plant
$10,000
nt
Pla
e
Small
Plant
4
5
Co
nd
uc
tM
ar
ke
t
Su
rv
ey
$190,000
Unfavorable Market (0.73)
$190,000
Favorable Market (0.27)
$90,000
Unfavorable Market (0.73)
$30,000
No Plant
$10,000
urv
e
ge
Lar
Small
Plant
6
7
$200,000
Unfavorable Market (0.50)
$180,000
Favorable Market (0.50)
$100,000
Unfavorable Market (0.50)
$20,000
No Plant
$0
2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
3 51
2.
3 52
4.
5.
3 53
Do
Not
Con
duc
tS
urv
e
$10,000
$10,000
$40,000
tM
ar
ke
t
$2,400
Su
rv
ey
)
45
.
(0
y ts e
e
l
$49,200 urv sul rab
S Re vo
Su Fa
rv
e
Re y (
Ne su 0.5
5)
ga lts
tiv
e
Co
nd
uc
$49,200
Figure 3.4
Payoffs
Second Decision
Point
$106,400
First Decision
Point
t
lan
P
ge
$40,000
Lar
Small
Plant
$10,000
$200,000
Unfavorable Market (0.50)
$180,000
Favorable Market (0.50)
$100,000
Unfavorable Market (0.50)
$20,000
No Plant
$0
2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
3 54
3 55
Expected value
with sample
information, assuming
no cost to gather it
Expected value
of best decision
without sample
information
Sensitivity Analysis
How sensitive are the decisions to
3 57
Sensitivity Analysis
p = probability of a favorable survey
result
(1 p) 1)
= = probability
a negativesurvey
EMV(node
($106,400)pof
+($2,400)(1
p)
result
= $104,000p + $2,400
We are indifferent when the EMV of node 1 is the
same as the EMV of not conducting the survey,
$40,000
$104,000p + $2,400= $40,000
$104,000p = $37,600
p
= $37,600/$104,000 = 0.36
p >.36, the decision will stay the same
p< .36, do not conduct survey
3 58
3 59
Utility Theory
Monetary value is not always a true indicator of the
3 60
Utility Theory
$2,000,000
Accept
Offer
$0
Reject
Offer
Heads
(0.5)
Tails
(0.5)
EMV = $2,500,000
$5,000,000
Figure 3.6
3 61
Utility Theory
Utility theory allows you to incorporate your
3 62
Utility Theory
Assign utility values to each monetary value in a given
3 63
Standard Gamble
(p)
e1
v
i
at
n
r
e
Alt
Alt
ern
a ti
ve
2
(1 p)
Best Outcome
Utility = 1
Worst Outcome
Utility = 0
Figure 3.7
Other Outcome
Utility = ?
Expected utility of alternative 2 =
Expected utility of alternative 1
Utility of other outcome = (p)(utility of
best outcome, which is 1)
+ (1 p)(utility of the worst
outcome, which is 0)
2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
3 64
Standard Gamble
You have a 50% chance of getting $0 and a 50%
3 65
Standard Gamble
Another way to look characterize a persons risk is
3 66
Investment Example
Jane Dickson wants to construct a utility curve
3 67
Investment Example
t in te
s
e
Inv Esta
al
e
R
Inv
es
t
Figure 3.8
p = 0.80
$10,000
U($10,000) = 1.0
(1 p) = 0.20
$0
U($0.00) = 0.0
in
Ba
nk
$5,000
U($5,000) = p = .8
3 68
Investment Example
We can assess other utility values in the same way
For Jane these are
3 69
Utility Curve
1.0
U ($10,000) = 1.0
Utility
0.5
0.4
U ($3,000) = 0.50
0.3
0.2
0.1
U ($0) = 0
Figure 3.9
$0
$1,000
$3,000
$5,000
$7,000
$10,000
Monetary Value
2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
3 70
Utility Curve
Janes utility curve is typical of a risk
avoider
occur
As monetary value increases, the utility curve
increases at a slower rate
A risk seeker gets more utility from greater risk
As monetary value increases, the utility curve
increases at a faster rate
Someone who is indifferent will have a linear
utility curve
2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
3 71
Utility Curve
In
di
ffe
re
nc
e
R
is
k
Utility
Risk
Avoider
Risk
Seeker
Monetary Outcome
Figure 3.10
2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
3 72
Utility as a
Decision-Making Criteria
Once a utility curve has been developed
3 73
Utility as a
Decision-Making Criteria
Mark Simkin loves to gamble
He plays a game tossing thumbtacks in
the air
If the thumbtack lands point up, Mark wins
$10,000
If the thumbtack lands point down, Mark
loses $10,000
Should Mark play the game (alternative 1)?
3 74
Utility as a
Decision-Making Criteria
Tack Lands
Point Up (0.45)
me
a
1
ve the G
i
t
rna lays
e
t
Al rk P
Ma
Alt
e
Tack Lands
Point Down (0.55)
$10,000
rn
ati
ve
2
$10,000
$0
3 75
Utility as a
Decision-Making Criteria
Step 1 Define Marks utilities
U ($10,000) = 0.05
U ($0) = 0.15
U ($10,000) = 0.30
Step 2 Replace monetary values with
utility values
3 76
Utility as a
Decision-Making Criteria
1.00
Utility
0.75
0.50
0.30
0.25
0.15
0.05
|
0
$20,000
$10,000
$0
$10,000
$20,000
Monetary Outcome
Figure 3.12
3 77
Utility as a
Decision-Making Criteria
E = 0.162
me
a
1
ve the G
i
t
rna lays
e
t
Al rk P
Ma
Alt
e
Tack Lands
Point Up (0.45)
Tack Lands
Point Down (0.55)
0.30
0.05
rn
ati
ve
2
Dont Play
Figure 3.13
Utility
0.15
3 78
Utility as a
Decision-Making Criteria
A life insurance company sells term life
insurance.
If the policy holder dies during the term of the
policy the company pays $100,000, otherwise $0
Based on actuarial tables, the probability of a
person dying during the next year is .001
The cost of the policy is $200
Based on EMV, should the individual by the
policy?
How does utility theory explain why a person
would buy the policy?
2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
3 79
3 80
John C. Butler, et al. The US and Russia Evaluate Plutonium Disposition Options with
Multiattribute Utility Theory, Interfaces 35,1 (Jan-Feb 2005):88-101
3 81
3 82
3 83
3 84
3 85