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Topic #3
s1
s2
s3
s4
s5
x
y
z
v
w
=>
Outcomes
=>
Preferences/Payoffs/Utility
u1(x) = 4
u2(y) = 5
u3(z) = 3
u4(v) = 4
u5(w) = 3
In this case ,
the security level of s1 is 2, while
the security level of s2 is 1.
Then choose the strategy that gives you the highest security
level,
i.e., the maximum of the minimums or maximin.
Maximax
vs.
Maximin
For reasons that
will be made
evident later,
the term
minimax is
used more
commonly than
maximin.
Cardinal Payoffs $$
If you and the insurance company have the same beliefs about the
probability that your house will burn down in the year, is there a
premium price such that you will buy and they will sell
Not if payoffs = expected $$$.
You probably are not risk-neutral but rather risk-averse.
But the insurance company, insuring millions of widely dispersed house,
can afford to be risk neutral.
Ditto in a game between you, a Las Vegas gaming house, and Nature.
If you win the state lottery, are you indifferent between these two
prizes?
Prize 1: $1,000,000
Prize 2: Another lottery ticket, which gives you a .5 chance of winning
$2,000,000 and a .5 chance of winning $0.