Near-Term Climate Change Projections

Brad Lyon
International Research Institute for Climate and Society
 Time Horizons, Climate and Decisions

Past climate history

2010 time horizon 2100
for many
decisions

• Projections of how the climate may change by the end of the 21st Century are
not especially helpful for making decisions now in climate-sensitive sectors

• Past climate history can play a role in assessing possible near-term changes in
the climate (“Near-Term Climate Change”)

• How climate change projections can be used for this purpose is an active area
of research… quantifying the uncertainties is a very difficult challenge
Example #1: Upward Trend in Temp. in Kenyan Highlands?
Assessing recent trends in climate presents its own challenges

Comparing Two Versions of the Same Temp Dataset

Average temperature for boxed region at left

 Points to the need to collaborate with in-region partners, analyze local data
Example #2: Downward Trend in Rainfall in the Greater Horn

March-April-May 2009
“Climate change” or
Shorter-term trend?

Mar-Apr-May Seasons

“DRY” “WET”
Using Historical Data to Estimate Range of Future Climate
Observed Rainfall

Possible Future Rainfall Variability – Given Past Behavior

37

35

33

31 1

Rainfall (mm/mo)
29

27

25

2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050 2054 2058 2062 2066 2070 2074 2078 2082 2086 2090
Using Historical Data to Estimate Range of Future Climate

WET
37

WET WET
35

33

31 1

Rainfall (mm/mo)
29

27
DRY DRY

25

2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050 2054 2058 2062 2066 2070 2074 2078 2082 2086 2090
Using Historical Data to Estimate Range of Future Climate
37

35

33

1
31
2
Rainfall (mm/mo)
29
1
39
27 2
37 3
25 4
35
5
2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050 2054 2058 2062 2066 2070 2074 2078 2082 2086 2090 6
33
7
31
8
Rainfall (mm/mo)
39
29 9
10
37
27 11
35
25 12
13
33 1
2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050 2054 2058 2062 2066 2070 2074 2078 2082 2086 2090 14
2
31 3
Rainfall (mm/mo)
29

27

25

2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050 2054 2058 2062 2066 2070 2074 2078 2082 2086 2090
Using Historical Data to Estimate Range of Future Climate
1
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33 6
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Rainfall (mm/mo)
29 9
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27 11

25 12
13
2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050 2054 2058 2062 2066 2070 2074 2078 2082 2086 2090 14

Duration (yrs)
WET DRY

Longest 10

8
Average
6

4
Shortest
2
Climate Projections Based on Land & Ocean “Coupled Models”

Typical Size of a Model Grid

Cell and Kenyan Topography

Graphic: NOAA
Climate Projections Based on Estimates of Future What
Future Greenhouse Gas Concentrations Will Be

This is another source of uncertainty: Which scenario to use?

 Models are not Perfect Representations of the Climate System
EXAMPLE: Annual Average Rainfall in the Greater Horn

OBSERVATIONS MODEL “A” MODEL “B”

Annual Average Rainfall (mm/day)

 Simply choosing the model grid point nearest the location of interest and using that
“raw” data to examine possible future changes in climate is NOT a reliable strategy…
It is not Uncommon for Climate Models to be in Disagreement
EXAMPLE: Model Change in Annual Rainfall (2085-2100 minus 1971-2000)

MODEL “A” MODEL “B”

mm/day
“DRY” “WET”
Projected PRCP Changes (2080-2099 relative to 1980-1999)
% Change in Annual PRCP

21 Models
from IPCC # Models Annual PRCP > 0
AR4
Oct-Nov-Dec Rainfall 1997

Mitigating the impacts of current

climate variability is a step towards
adapting to future climate extremes...

EXAMPLE: The 1997-98 El Nino

Percent of Average Rainfall

Summary