DOCTORAL RESEARCH PROPOSAL

MODELLING URBAN GROWTH DYNAMICS OF UYO

METROPOLIS USING LINEAR AND NON LINEAR MODELS
BY

EYOH, ANIEKAN EFFIONG

PG/Ph.D/13/65673
DEPARTMENT OF GEOINFORMATICS & SURVEYING
FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES
UNVERSITY OF NIGERIA
ENUGU CAMPUS

SUPERVISOR:

PROF. F. I. OKEKE

STATEMENT OF PROBLEM
Urban growth in southern cities in Nigeria has put profound pressure on housing, infrastructure and
the environment and is generally viewed by most Nigerians as an intractable problem (Braimoh et
al. 2007). The social and environmental repercussion of loosely planned urban cities could be
catastrophic especially in the present situation in Uyo that has constantly experienced remarkable
urban expansion in recent time. Understanding urban growth and it's dynamics is critical to city
planners and resource managers in this rapidly changing city. Currently, technological methods such
as Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Remote sensing, along with analytical models among
other requirements for sustainable physical planning, are not presently utilised by urban planners in
Uyo and other cities in Nigeria. Oduwaye (2009) argued that sustainable physical planning will
remain a mirage in cities in Nigeria unless contemporary e-planning techniques are adopted. Uyo is
one of the foremost cities currently experiencing unprecedented urban sprawl. with modelling and
simulation, it will be possible to reduce urban growth uncertainties and thereby increase the
understanding of urban growth dynamics. Taking urban planning process as an example, planning is
a future-oriented activity, strongly conditioned by the past and present. Urban planners need to
enhance their analytical problem solving and decision making capabilities by having an
understanding of the urban growth drivers and its influence over the past and a possible effect in
future sprawls. With the help of analytical models, this scenario building can be facilitated, thus
providing an important aid to future directed decision- making. In this way, urban planning can be
more scientific, thus reducing the subjectivity brought by decision makers. It is on this background
that this research work is undertaken to support Uyos sustainable development and assist city
planners in having a better understanding of past and future urban growth patterns and the
underlying factors influencing the spatial and temporal processes of urban growth dynamics.

Research Aim and Objectives

The specific aim of this research is to:

Model and assess urban growth dynamics of Uyo metropolis using linear and non
linear model so as to reveal the underlying factors influencing the spatial and
temporal processes of past urban growth thereby aiding the forecast of future
growth patterns.
The above stated aim will be accomplished with the following specific objectives:
1. Spatial-temporal assessment of urban growth dynamics of Uyo metropolis from
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

1978-2013 (Four Epoch).

Extraction/Generation of independent spatial and weighted variables (causal
factors driving urban growth) from remote sensing data.
Modelling and validation; using linear model(Geographically Weighted
Regression) and non-linear model (Artificial Neural Networks).
Assessment of the level of significance/contribution of each driving factor
influencing Urban growth in the study area.
Juxtapose performance of the linear model(GWR) and non linear model( ANN)
Predicting future urban growth in 2020 and 2030 using validated calibrations.

RESEARCH QUESTIONS
SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES

RESEARCH QUESTIONS

1.Spatial-temporal assessment of urban

growth dynamics of Uyo metropolis from
1978-2013(four epoch).

ii. What are the spatial extent of urban growth in

each epoch?
i. what are the patterns of the urban growths? Is it ;
Infill? or Urban Extension/Expansion? or Urban
sprawl?

2. Extraction/Generation of independent
spatial and weighted variables (causal
factors driving urban growth) from remote
sensing data.

i. What are the causal factors driving urban growth in

the study area?
ii. Can this drivers be extracted/generated from
remote sensing data?

3. Modelling and validation of the models

(GWR and ANN).

i. Can Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR)

model be implemented to simulate and predict urban
growth with satisfactory accuracy?
iii. Can Artificial Neural Network (ANN) be implemented
to simulate and predict urban growth with satisfactory
accuracy?

RESEARCH QUESTIONS
CONTINUES
SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES

RESEARCH QUESTIONS

4. Assessment of the
significance/contribution of each
variables(factor driving Urban growth)
used in the models.

i. Are all the drivers of urban growth identified in the

study area significant?
ii. What are the level of significance/contribution of
each driver for each epoch under consideration?

5. Juxtapose performance of the linear

model(GWR) and the non linear model
(ANN)

ii. Does the Linear model (GWR ) yield better

results and accuracies than the non linear model
(ANN)?
iii. Which of the model is the most reliable and why?

6. Predicting future urban growth in 2020

and 2030 using validated calibrations

Can future urban growth in 2020 and 2030 be

predicted using the validated calibrations from linear
model and non linear model?

RESEARCH SIGNIFICANCE
There has been a concerted effort in using GIS and remote sensing to provide
information on existing land use and land cover changes, and it has been increasingly
used to characterize urban areas and to show urban changes in Nigerian cities. But
most time the spatio-temporal pattern of the urban growth are not explicitly expounded
and analytical models are not used to simulate and build scenario that can aid the
understanding of complex urban growth dynamics, thus limiting the
usefulness/applicability of such studies. This research will attempt to breach this gap
by using various analytical robust models(linear and non linear) like Geographically
Weighted Regression (GWR), and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to implement the
modelling of urban growth dynamics of Uyo metropolis. Metropolitan planners have
always sought tools to enhance their analytical, problem-solving and decision-making
capabilities and this research is set out to meet this need. Consequently this research
should be able to :
Assist municipal planners and policy makers in having a better understanding of past
and future urban growth patterns from historical remote sensing data.
Reveal the underlying factors influencing the spatial and temporal processes of urban
growth dynamics.
Provide an important aid to future-directed decision-making on urban planning.
Help in generating scientific plans which will foster sustainable development in Uyo
metropolis, Nigeria.

STUDY AREA

Location and Extent;- Uyo metropolis is the area chosen for this study. This city serves as the capital of Akwa
Ibom State. It is currently the number one oil producing state in Nigeria. It lies between Longitude 07 o 54 and 07
o

58 East of the Greenwich Meridian and between Latitude 04 o 58 and 05o 08 North of the Equator. Uyo

metropolis is situated at the north central part of the state and occupies a model position with road links to all
local government areas in the state. The city can be accessed by road via various Highways such as Calabar-Itu
Highway,

Abak

Road,

Oron-Nwaniba

Road,,

and

Aka

Road.

Nearby

airport

is

the

Akwa Ibom International Airport . The total area the study will cover will be approximately 160km 2 covering
greater part of

Uyo Local Government Area, part of Itu Local Government Area, Ibesikpo/Asutan Local

Government Area, Ibiono Ibom Local Government Area and Nsit Ibom Local Government Area.
Topography:- Uyo metropolis lies within the lowland coastal plain of Nigeria with alternating denudation and
aggradation activities. The terrain is fairly flat except for some part which has dots of ravine resulting from
geomorphologic processes of the past.
Climate:-Uyo metropolis lies within the equatorial rain forest belt. It is in a tropical climatic region that has long
rainy season occurring between the month of March and October, with a short dry season between November and
February.

LITERATURE REVIEW

S/NO

AUTHOR/
YEAR
Mohammady
et al. (2013)

TOPIC

SUMMARY

RELATIONSHIP

MY REMARKS/CONTRIBUTION

Urban growth
modelling with
Artificial Neural
Network and
Logistic Regression.
Case study:
Sanandaj city, Iran.

It employed two models; Artificial Neural Network and Logistic

Regression, in modelling dynamic urban growth in Sanandaj city,
Iran from a single epoch of Remote sensing image (2000-2006). The
dataset used includes distance to main roads, distance to the
residence region, elevation, slope, and distance to green space.
Percent Area Match (PAM) obtained from modelling of these
changes with ANN was 90.47% and the accuracy achieved for urban
growth modelling with Logistic Regression (LR) was 88.91%.
Percent Correct Match (PCM) and Figure of Merit for ANN method
were 91.33% and 59.07% and then for LR were 90.84% and
57.07%, respectively. The coefficients obtained from LR method
showed that distance to main road had the biggest impact on urban
growth in this area and, on the other hand, elevation had the
minimum impact.

It is related. These
researchers used both
linear and non-linear
models. Artificial Neural
Network is also the nonlinear model chosen for
this study.

The work demonstrated that linear and non-linear models

can be used to model complex urban systems with
satisfactory accuracy . However , the used of a single
epoch of a low resolution image over a very short period
(6years) will definitely not reveal conclusively the
significance of the driving factors of urban growth. Hence,
I propose to use 4 epochs (35years span), Aerial photo and
high resolution images to enhance performance and
reliability of my research. Also, these researchers used
mostly proximity variables and did not consider other
important causal factors of urban growth like;
Demographic(Population size and Population density),
Economic( cost of Land; Business potential and rent),
Social (Human attitudes and values; Affluence),
Neighbourhood (Availability of useable sites and
Agglomeration of developed areas ), constraints (Water
body and Environment sensitive area), and rule
making(Zoning laws) were not considered. I hope to
incorporate these variables in my research. Furthermore,
these researchers only simulated urban growth but did not
predict future growth. I intend to predict future urban
growth based on my validated model calibrations in two
perspective; using linear model and non-linear model.

Moghadam et
al. (2013)

Spatiotemporal
urbanization
processes in the
megacity of
Mumbai, India: A
Markov chainscellular automata
urban growth model.

It used Remote sensing data collected between 1973 and 2010 with
an integrated Markov Chainse Cellular Automata (MCeCA) urban
growth model to predict the citys expansion for the years 2020 and
2030. The variables used included; distance from roads, distance
from water bodies, distances from built up areas and slope. It
analysis demonstrated that the integration of GIS, remote sensing,

It is related. These
researchers predicted
future urban growth in
2020 and 2030 using a
different model from what
I intend to used.

Markov chain analysis uses a transition matrix to describe

the change of land use but cannot reveal the causal factors
and their significance. But the linear model (GWR ) and
non-linear model (ANN ) proposed for this research can
simulate and as well reveal the level of
significance/contribution of each urban growth drivers. In
addition to physical and proximity variables the researchers
only used, other variables stated in my remarks in literature
review-1 will be introduced by me.

Quantifying Urban
growth pattern in
developing countries
using Remote
sensing and Spatial
Matrics: A case
study of Kampala
Uganda.

In this study, the spatial temporal patterns and process of urban

growth of kampala and its drivers were investigated from 1989 to
2010 using satellite remote sensing images, spatial matrics and
Logistic Regression modelling. Four different land cover maps
derived from Landsat TM images of 1989, 1995, 2003 and 2010
were used to evaluate a set of nine selected spatial matrices to reveal
patterns and dynamics of urban growth in the study area. The result
proved that quantifying urban growth patterns and development
process of the past trends can help better understanding of built up
areas and guide sustainable development planning of future urban
growth.

It is related. These
researchers used Logistic
Regression; which is one
of my linear models.

The researcher did a very notable work. He considered the

urban growth patterns (Infill, expansion/extension and
sprawl) which is a very important aspect of urban studies
that has not been taken into consideration by researchers.
His work is really an inspiration. But in addition, I intend
to use both linear and non-linear model to carry out my
own research to give room for comparative analysis.

Abebe (2013)

and urban modelling offers an enhanced understanding of the

futures and trends that megacities will face. It also provides
important information for strategies directed at fostering sustainable
development.

LITERATURE REVIEW CONTINUES

S/NO AUTHOR/
YEAR

TOPIC

SUMMARY

RELATIONSHIP

MY REMARKS/CONTRIBUTION

Soltani, &
Karimzadeh
(2013)

The spatio-temporal
modelling of urban
growth case study:
Mahabad, Iran

This study model and simulated the complex patterns of land use
change by utilizing remote sensing data (1989, 2000, and 2005) and
artificial intelligence techniques in the city of Mahabad, north-west
of Iran. Cellular Automata (CA) was used as the principal motor of
the model and then ANN applied to find suitable scale of parameters
and relations between potential factors affecting urban growth. The
final step of modelling was prediction of urban growth for 2025
based on the parameters and results of model validation. The driving
factors considered were four groups; physical attribute, accessibility
and neighbourhood, zoning and land use data for the period of 1989
to 2005. The general accuracy of the model obtained from Kappa
Coefficient confirms that ANN model can be used in simulating
nonlinear urban evolution process.

It is related. These
researchers used
Artificial Neural
Network; which is one
of my non-linear model
and they also predicted
future urban growth
which I also anticipate
to do.

They work showed the effectiveness of Artificial Neural

Network in simulation and prediction of urban growth. But
the level of significance of the drivers of urban growth were
not highlighted and evaluated by these researchers. I hope to
evaluate the level of significance of the of causal factors of
urban growth in my own research . Also the used of linear
model will make my research more analytical since GWR
model have tremendous explanatory properties, such that the
significant contribution of the independent variables(urban
growth drivers) in the models can be explored, as well as
tests for detecting multicollinearity, normality, spatial
autocorrelation, and determining R2 .

Eyoh
(2012)

Modelling and
predicting future
urban expansion of
Lagos, Nigeria from
remote sensing data
using logistic
regression and GIS

This research explores the implementation of a loosely coupled

logistic regression model and geographic information systems in
modelling and predicting future urban expansion of Lagos from
historical remote sensing data (Landsat TM images of Lagos
acquired on 1984, 2000 and 2005). The ten land use explanatory
variables that were used for the modelling were all significant at
95% CL which implied that all the explanatory variables contributed
to the urban expansion of Lagos. Distance to urban cells
(Residential and commercial/industrial) had the highest impact in
the model indicating that urban growth tends to occur close to the
nearest urban area. The spatial growth of Lagos in 2030 was
believed to be a direct consequence of urban sprawl as urban areas
tend to expand close to the nearest urban cluster.

It is related. The
researcher used Logistic
Regression; which is a
linear model.

Due to the complication of urban systems, a linear model

alone cannot be solely relied upon in the modelling of such a
complex system. Also the researcher used only proximity
variables and did not consider other important causal factors
of urban growth like; Demographic(Population size and
Population density), Economic( cost of Land; Business
potential and rent), Social (Human attitudes and values;
Affluence), Neighbourhood (Availability of useable sites and
Agglomeration of developed areas ), constraints (Water body
and Environment sensitive area), and rule making(Zoning
laws). Also the use of linear model (Geographic Weighted
Regression) and a robust non-linear models (ANN) will give
room for juxtapose performance of the models.

Shariff et al.
(2010)

Modelling Urban
Land Use Change
Using
Geographically
Weighted Regression
and the Implications
for Sustainable
Environmental
Planning

An ordinary least squares regression (OLS) and Geographically

Weighted Regression (GWR) was used to model urban land use
changes in Penang Island from 1990 to 2005. Spatial variables
describing environment, physical and socioeconomic factors
(proximity only) which are assumed to influence the change in the
land use in the study area were extracted and used for the modelling.
An ordinary least squares regression (OLS) model was first applied
to the variables followed by a GWR model. The results were
compared. The results show that the GWR outputs explained
considerably more variance in the relationship of the explanatory
factors compared to conventional OLS models and provided
significantly better results. In addition, GWR also provided
important insights on location where changes happen.

It is related. The
researcher used
Geographically
weighted Regression;
which is my linear
model.

The researchers demonstrated that GWR can be effectively

implemented for modelling urban growth but they only used
proximity variables and did not consider other important
causal factors of urban growth. I vividly believe that the
additional use of robust non-linear models (ANN) will
present a more comprehensive studies needed to understand
long term spatio-temporal dynamics inherent in urban
systems. Furthermore, I intend to predict future urban growth
based on my validated model calibrations in two perspective;
linear model and non-linear model.

LITERATURE REVIEW CONTINUES

S/NO

AUTHOR/ TOPIC
YEAR

SUMMARY

RELATIONSHIP

MY REMARKS/CONTRIBUTION

Huang et
al. (2009)

Spatio-temporal
Analysis of Ruralurban Land
Conversion

GIS coupled with a logistic regression model and exponential

smoothing techniques was used for exploring the effects of various
factors on land use change(1984-2002) in New Castle County,
Delaware USA. These factors include population density, slope,
proximity to roads, and surrounding land use. The modelling results
reveal that Logistics Regression model can achieved a reasonable
goodness-of-fit of the actual land use development thus assisting in
the forecast of the sites prone to urbanization.

It is related. Logistic
Regression was used;
which is a linear model.

Rural-urban Land Conversion is stochastic in behaviour

and
might not be normally distributed, thus the use of linear
model alone cannot be solely relied upon in the modelling
growth dynamics in a metropolis like Uyo. Thus employing
robust non linear predictive tools that can realistically
model urban complexity, dynamism, and future growth
efficiently is pertinent.

Alkheder
(2008)

Urban growth
simulation using
remote sensing
imagery and neural
networks

This work applies neural network (NN) algorithms in simulating

urban growth of Indianapolis city using historical satellite images of
Indianapolis city over a study period of three decades (1973-2003).
Their focus was directed to the residential and commercial classes
and their growth. Two NN algorithms were used to simulate the
urban growth: Simple Adaptive Linear Neural Network (SALNN)
and Back Propagation Neural Network Algorithm (BPNN). Results
showed that both algorithms after increasing the volume of the
dataset succeeded in simulating the growth trends with better results
achieved using the Simple Adaptive Linear Neural Network
(SALNN).

It is related. These
researchers used Artificial
Neural Network; which is
my chosen non-linear
model.

The researcher used only proximity variables and did not

consider other important fundamental factors of urban
growth which are very pertinent in order to efficiently and
effectively reveal the main drivers of Urban growth
dynamics. I believe that the use of linear model (GWR )
will enable juxtapose performance of Urban growth models
and the forecast of future urban growth by both linear and
non linear model will enhance vivid conclusions on urban
growth dynamics.

Xie (2006)

Support Vector
Machines for Land
Use Change
Modelling

This research implemented a Support Vector Machines (SVMs)

model for land use change modelling of Calgary city,
Canada from 1985 to 2001(1985, 1990, 1992, 1999, 2000, and
2001 Landsat Images). He used three categories of causal factors:
(1) site specific characteristics, (2) proximity, and (3)
neighbourhood characteristics. He also implemented a Spatial
logistic regression so as to compare the performance of Logistic
Regression with Support Vector Machines. The modelling result
demonstrated that SVMs can achieve high and reliable
performances than Logistic Regression

It is related. It use Support

Vector Machines (SVMs)
a non-linear model and
Logistic Regression a non
linear model.

Support Vector Machines (SVMs) is a very robust non

linear model like ANN model. It has the capability to
effectively address urban growth dynamics modelling.
Despite this, there is still a need to use linear model. This
researcher still used linear model to enable juxtapose
performance and this corroborate my stand on using both
linear and non linear model. He also did a remarkable work
on the choice of his drivers. His work is really an
inspiration. But the non linear model (SVMs) he used did
not reveal the significance of the causal factors of urban
growth in his study area.

10

Cheng
(2003)

Modelling Spatial &

Temporal Urban
Growth

This research was centred on monitoring and evaluating Urban

Growth in Wuhan city, china from 1955-2000(1955, 1965, 1986,
1993 and 2000) based on aerial photographs, SPOT images and
other data sources. The main quantitative analysis he carried out
was; morphology analysis, spatial pattern analysis and land use
structure change. Fractal analysis, regression analysis and landscape
metrics were used as analytical methods for the evaluation of urban
growth. His result reveals temporal variations in the spatial urban
growth process of the Wuhan city.

It is related. Logistic
Regression is a non linear
model.

The researcher did a very good work in his quantitative

analysis but linear model alone cannot be solely relied upon
in the modelling complex urban system like Uyo. Also the
researcher used only proximity variables and did not
consider other important categorical drivers. Am using a
different linear model (Geographically Weighted
Regression) and two formidable non-linear models (ANN )

Reasons for choosing Linear model(GWR) and non-linear model(ANN) and

Overview of the two models

Linear model (GWR)

Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) is a local form of spatial analysis model
adapted from Ordinary Least Square Regression. It was introduced in 1996 by Stewart
Fotheringham .Stewart Fotheringham is a Professor and Director of the National Centre for
Geocomputation (NCG) at the National University of Ireland, Maynooth.
The reasons for choosing Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model as the linear
model for the modelling of urban growth dynamics of Uyo Metropolis are;
Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) is a powerful tool for exploring spatial
heterogeneity. Spatial heterogeneity exists when the structure of the process being modelled
varies across the study area.(Fotheringham et al., 2002).
GWR models have tremendous explanatory properties, such that the significant
contribution of the independent variables in the models can be explored (Fotheringham et al.,
2002).
Also, test detecting multicollinearity, normality, spatial autocorrelation, and determining R 2
are carried out to ascertain its results(Fotheringham et al., 1997).
GWR has the potential to investigate non-stationary relations in regression analysis
(Fotheringham et al., 2002).
Several researchers corroborate that its yields high accuracy when used for modelling land
use change (Noresah & Ruslan, 2009; Thapa & Murayama, 2009 and Fotheringham et al.,
2002).

Mathematical Expression of Geographically Weighted Regression Model

Non-linear model (ANN)

Metropolis are complex urban system that are likely to be stochastic in behaviour.
Triantakonstantis (2012) opined that the spatial complexity inherent in an urban environment
reflects the impact of numerous physical and socioeconomic factors and as a result
heterogeneous patterns appear across location and scale thus making urban development a
dynamic and non-linear process.
Consequently, linear models cannot be exclusively relied upon for modelling its growth
dynamics. Hence a robust predictive tools that can realistically model their complexity,
dynamism, and growth is required. Thus the choice of ANN as non-linear model.
Introduction to ANN
An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is an information processing model that is inspired by
the way biological nervous systems, such as the brain, process information. The key element
of this model is the novel structure of the information processing system. It is composed of a
large number of highly interconnected processing elements (neurones) working in unison to
solve specific problems. ANNs, like people, learn by example. An ANN is configured for a
specific application, such as pattern recognition or data classification, through a learning
process. Learning in biological systems involves adjustments to the synaptic connections
that exist between the neurones. This is true of ANNs as well.

Why the Choice of Artificial Neural Networks(ANN) as the NonLinear model?

Artificial Neural networks, has remarkable ability to derive meaning from complicated or
imprecise data, can be used to extract patterns and detect trends that are too complex to be
noticed by either humans or other computer techniques. A trained neural network can be
thought of as an "expert" in the category of information it has been given to analyse. This
expert can then be used to provide projections given new situations of interest and answer
"what if" questions. Other benefits include:
Adaptive learning: An ability to learn how to do tasks based on the data given for training
or initial experience.
Self-Organisation: An ANN can create its own organisation or representation of the
information it receives during learning time.
Li and Yeh (2002) identify a series of ANN advantages:
(a) The structure of algorithms enables neural networks to be robust and noise
resistant regardless of poor data.
(b) They can solve highly nonlinear problems in complex systems.
(c) The method is rather simple because no exact questions or expressions are
required.
(d) The best level of performance can be obtained.
(e) There are no restrictions about using nonnumeric data.
(f) They adapt to nonnormal frequency distribution.
(g) Mixtures of measurement types can be used.
(h) They can use many variables, some of which may be redundant.

Explanation of Artificial Neural Network Model

Explanation of Artificial Neural Network Model Continues

Causal Factors(Drivers) of Urban Growth to be

Considered for the Research
Typically, urban growth are influenced by a few
recurrent factors that cannot be overlooked.
Demographic factors (population size, and
population density) are widely treated as major
causal factors of land use change (Verburg et
al.,2001). It is obvious that a city will grow if its
population increases. Consequently, new
residential areas will emerge in close proximity
to transportation facilities (roads, railways and
bus lines) and commercial centres also develop
concurrently. In the meantime, industrial
buildings develop in the vicinity of those
previously existing. On the whole, urban
expansion will transform vacant or low rent
areas into built-up land. Additionally, the
agglomeration of developed areas and the
availability of exploitable sites will significantly
influence land use change patterns. Hence the
following urban growth drivers will be
considered in my research.

CONCLUSION
I strongly believe that this research will be exploratory and
its results will aid urban planners and policy makers to
effectively and efficiently understand urban growth
processes and its driving forces, make more precise
projections of future urban growth, thus helping them
generate plans which will foster sustainable development.