The Drake

Equation
Does life exist
elsewhere
in the universe?
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nd might there be other
advanced civilizations out there?

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hat are the chances of
technologicallv-advanced
civilizations elsewhere in the
universe?
nd how manv such
civilizations. if anv.
might there be?

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2ages courtesy oI R. Fe22er
ut we can conduct a preli2inary
analysis using 'The Drake Equation
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The 2ath that we will use is
known as The Drake Equation
N ( R) ( fp ) (ne) ( f ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)

N (R) ( fp ) (ne) ( f ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)

The equation was originally developed by

Dr. Frank Drake
When he was proIessor oI physics
and astrophysics at the
University oI CaliIornia, Santa Cruz
N (R) ( fp ) (ne) ( f ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)

hat possibilities can its

mathematics suggest?
Drake`s Equation
We would like to
esti2ate ' the
potential nu2bers oI
technologicallv
advanced
civilizations
elsewhere in the
universe
N (R) ( fp ) (ne) ( f ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)

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Drake`s Equation
We would like to
esti2ate 'N the
potential nu2bers oI
technologicallv
advanced
civilizations
elsewhere in the
universe
N (R) ( fp ) (ne) ( f ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)

The nu2ber will vary, oI course, with

diIIerent starting assu2ptions
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Drake`s Equation
We would like to
esti2ate 'N the
potential nu2bers oI
technologicallv
advanced
civilizations
elsewhere in the
universe
N (R) ( fp ) (ne) ( f ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)

Drake`s equation allows us to test alternate

assu2ptions in a 2ethodical and analytic way
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%he good news is that the math itself
will be done bv this presentation
Drake`s Equation
N (R) ( fp ) (ne) ( f ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)

We start with an esti2ate

oI the nu2ber oI stars
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Drake`s Equation
N (R) ( fp ) (ne) ( f ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)

Footnote: AIter co2pleting this

introductory presentation , we
could use Drake`s equation to test
other esti2ates
such as the 'Iraction oI stars with suitable characteristics
(not all stars are sun-like, Ior exa2ple)
We start with an esti2ate
oI the nu2ber oI stars
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Fraction
oI stars that have
planets
Drake`s Equation
N (R) ( fp ) (ne) ( f ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)

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We can e2ploy diIIerent esti2ates here to test
the eIIects iI planets turn out to be extre2ely
co22on - or if thev are comparativelv rare
Fraction
oI stars that have
planets
Drake`s Equation
N (R) ( fp ) (ne) ( f ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)

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What Iraction oI planets are
HATALE
(earth-like, Ior exa2ple)
Drake`s Equation
N (R) ( fp ) (ne) ( f ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)

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Drake`s Equation
N (R) ( fp ) (ne) ( f ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)

Not all planets , Ior exa2ple, are

likely to be suitable Ior liIe
We want only earth-like` planets or
others whose conditions allow liIe to exist
What Iraction oI planets are
HATALE
(earth-like, Ior exa2ple)
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What portion oI habitable planets
are actually inhabited
by LFE-FORMS oI anv sort?
Drake`s Equation
N (R) ( fp ) (ne) ( f ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)

Marine plankton
Yeast cells
Anything like these?
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Drake`s Equation
N (R) ( fp ) (ne) ( f ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)

What portion oI NHATED planets

include intelligent` liIe?
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Drake`s Equation
N (R) ( fp ) (ne) ( f ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)

Tool-2aking?
Mathe2atical?
Technological?
On earth, there are
2ultiple degrees` oI
intelligence
Which organis2s would
satisIy the deIinition we
would use? Chi2ps?
Dolphins? Only hu2ans?
What portion oI NHATED planets
include intelligent` liIe?
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What Iraction oI planets with

intelligent beings will also have
C'LATONS?
Drake`s Equation
N (R) ( fp ) (ne) ( f ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)

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What Iraction oI planets with

intelligent beings will also have
C'LATONS?
And 2ust they be technologicallv-
advanced civilizations or not?
Drake`s Equation
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e will be saving
this factor for later

Drake`s Equation
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Part Two
ets insert some numerical estimates
and see what results we obtain
Early analyses using Drake`s equation oIten
e2ployed esti2ates oI the nu2ber oI stars
in the Milky Way galaxy

Drake`s Equation
N (R) ( fp ) (ne) ( f ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)

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Early analyses using Drake`s equation oIten
e2ployed esti2ates oI the nu2ber oI stars
in the Milky Way galaxy

Drake`s Equation
N (R) ( fp ) (ne) ( f ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)

For this presentation, however, assu2e

that an approxi2ate nu2ber oI
stars in the entire universe is so2ething like 1 x 10
This would 2ean that the value oI R* would be
100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
total stars
23
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23
I the nu2ber oI 89,78 present in the universe is 1 x 10
hat if PLANETS are RARE and onlv
1/10
9
of 1 have planets?

Drake`s Equation
N (R) ( fp ) (ne) ( f ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)

23
I the nu2ber oI 89,78 present in the universe is 1 x 10
hat if PLANETS are RARE and onlv
1/10
9
of 1 have planets?

Drake`s Equation
N (R) ( fp ) (ne) ( f ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)

3
1 out of 1 x 10
1 out of 1,000
100 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
1000
Do the calculation
1. x 10
23
100 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
1000
Do the calculation
100 000 000 000 000 000 000
1. x 10
23
100 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
1000
Do the calculation
100 000 000 000 000 000 000
1. x 10
23
1 x 10 divided by 1 x 10 1 x 10
23 20 3
So iI there are approxi2ately 100,000,000,000,000,000,000 planets
What iI EARTH-LE planets are rare
and only 1/10
9
of 1 oI planets are HATALE?

Drake`s Equation
N (R) ( fp ) (ne) ( f ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)

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So iI there are approxi2ately 100,000,000,000,000,000,000 planets
What iI EARTH-LE planets are rare
and only 1/10
9
of 1 oI planets are HATALE?

Drake`s Equation
N (R) ( fp ) (ne) ( f ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)

1 out of 1 x 10
1 out of 1,000
3
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100 000 000 000 000 000 000
1000
Do the calculation
1. x 10
20
100 000 000 000 000 000 000
1000
Do the calculation
1. x 10
20
100 000 000 000 000 000
100 000 000 000 000 000 000
1000
Do the calculation
1. x 10
20
1 x 10 divided by 1 x 10 1 x 10
100 000 000 000 000 000
20 17 3
1 x 10 divided by 1 x 10 1 x 10
100 000 000 000 000 000
20 17
100 000 000 000 000 000 000
1000
Do the calculation
1. x 10
20
So this would suggest approxi2ately
100,000,000,000,000,000
planets with conditions suitable for life
3
Even iI, however, there were approxi2ately
100 000 000 000 000 000
habitable earth-like planets
What iI development oI LFE on habitable planets is also RARE
and only 1/10
9
of 1 oI habitable planets are hosts to liIe ?

Drake`s Equation
N (R) ( fp ) (ne) ( f ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)

Even iI, however, there were approxi2ately

100 000 000 000 000 000
habitable earth-like planets
What iI development oI LFE on habitable planets is also RARE
and only 1/10
9
of 1 oI habitable planets are hosts to liIe ?

Drake`s Equation
N (R) ( fp ) (ne) ( f ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)

1 out of 1000
100 000 000 000 000 000
1000
Do the calculation
1. x 10
17
100 000 000 000 000 000
1000
Do the calculation
1. x 10
17
100 000 000 000 000
100 000 000 000 000 000
1000
Do the calculation
1. x 10
17
100 000 000 000 000
1 x 10 divided by 1 x 10 1 x 10
17 14 3
100 000 000 000 000 000
1000
Do the calculation
1. x 10
17
100 000 000 000 000
1 x 10 divided by 1 x 10 1 x 10
17 14 3
So this would suggest approxi2ately
100,000,000,000,000
planets with some sort of life
N (R) ( fp ) (ne) ( f ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)

Drake`s Equation
So 1 there are approxi2ately
100 000 000 000 000
planets with liIe-Ior2s oI so2e sort,
What iI NTELLENT liIe is a rare occurrence and
only 1/10
th
of 1 oI planets develop intelligent beings?
N (R) ( fp ) (ne) ( f ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)

Drake`s Equation
So 1 there are approxi2ately
100 000 000 000 000
planets with liIe-Ior2s oI so2e sort,
What iI NTELLENT liIe is a rare occurrence and
only 1/10
th
of 1 oI planets develop intelligent beings?
1 out of 1,000
1 out of 1 x 10
3
100 000 000 000 000
1000
Do the calculation
1. x 10
14
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100 000 000 000 000
1000
Do the calculation
1. x 10
14
100 000 000 000
1 x 10 divided bv 1 x 10 1 x 10
14 11 3
I correct, this would 2ean approxi2ately
100 000 000 000
planets with intelligent liIe
A
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Photo courtesy of NASA
N (R) ( fp ) (ne) ( f ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)

So even 1 there 2ight exist approxi2ately

100 000 000 000
planets that are ho2e to so2e Ior2 oI intelligent liIe,
What iI AD'ANCED C'LATONS rarely develop and
only 1/10
9
of 1 oI planets develop ,/;,3.0/.;,9438
Drake`s Equation
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N (R) ( fp ) (ne) ( f ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)

So even 1 there 2ight exist approxi2ately

100 000 000 000
planets that are ho2e to so2e Ior2 oI intelligent liIe,
What iI AD'ANCED C'LATONS rarely develop and
only 1/10
9
of 1 oI planets develop ,/;,3.0/.;,9438
Drake`s Equation
1 out of 1,000
1 out of 1 x 10
3
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100 000 000 000
1000
Do the calculation
1. x 10
11
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100 000 000 000
1000
Do the calculation
1. x 10
11
100 000 000
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100 000 000 000
1000
Do the calculation
1. x 10
11
100 000 000
1 x 10 divided bv 1 x 10 1 x 10
11 8 3
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100 000 000 000
1000
Do the calculation
1. x 10
11
100 000 000
1 x 10 divided bv 1 x 10 1 x 10
11 8 3
So this would suggest the possibility oI
100 000 000
planets with technological civilizations
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Think how a2azing it would be
iI 100.000.000 planets
with civilizations actually exist
This see2s very i2pressive
N (R) ( fp ) (ne) ( f ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)

Drake`s Equation
N (R) ( fp ) (ne) ( f ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)

Drake`s Equation
Recall, however, this
Iactor , which we
deIerred earlier
Can you guess
what it is?
Recall, however, this
Iactor , which we
deIerred earlier
t is
. ti2e .
Can you guess
what it is?
N (R) ( fp ) (ne) ( f ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)

Drake`s Equation
because our own planet has had dozens oI great civilizations,
but only over the last century do we 2eet a deIinition
oI 'technologicallv advanced co22unicative civilizations
N (R) ( fp ) (ne) ( f ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)

Drake`s Equation
This Iactor is
. time .
and it is verv sobering
For exa2ple, radio telescopes
Thus, this Iactor , L ,
represents the
percentage
oI a planet`s liIeti2e
that is 2arked by the presence oI intelligent -038
with a technologicallv-advanced co22unicative civilization
N (R) ( fp ) (ne) ( f ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)

Drake`s Equation

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I civilizations
do not begin instantlv,
take a long time
to appear and develop,
and do not last forever
and only exist FOR TNY FRACTONS
of their planets total lifetime
or Ior only a tiny
portion oI the total
elapsed ti2e oI the
universe itselI
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Then we 2ust divide
once again
Suppose that so2ehow 1 x 10 advanced civilizations 2anage to develop
I, however, they only exist Ior a 1 x 10
portion oI their planet`s liIeti2e **
8
- 7
Then
1 x 10
8
1 x 10
7
1 x 10
1
10
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1 x 10
8
1 x 10
7
1 x 10
1
10
%hus. given the esti2ates
suppositions, and
assu2ptions that we have
used in this sample analvsis
Just ten planets with
technologically advanced civilizations
2ight exist at
a particular 2o2ent in ti2e
E2ploying the esti2ates
and 2athe2atics used in
our exa2ple,
there mav be onlv TEN
other advanced
civilizations
out there so2ewhere at
this 2o2ent in ti2e
or there could be NONE at all
we 2ay be it
t 2akes you think - doesn`t it ?
What responsibility does this
place upon our shoulders?
Photo courtesy of NASA
Footnotes
For convenience, this presentation assu2ed
a 1/10
th
oI 1 probability Ior each Iactor
in its discussion
ut the percentages that one chooses to
assign to each Iactor can and should be
2odiIied on the basis oI hu2ankind`s ever-
increasing knowledge and understandings
For exa2ple, solar syste2s with 2ultiple
planets 2ay not be rare at all, but 2ay be
very co22on so that the equation could be
run again to reIlect a 2uch higher nu2ber
oI planets
N (R) ( fp ) (ne) ( f ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)

On the other hand, 2any stars are

very diIIerent than our sun and 2ay
be unsuitable Ior sustaining liIe as
we know it
n that case, the value that that we
assign to Iactor R* should probably
be adiusted
We could adiust R* downward, Ior
exa2ple, by adding a Iactor fs to
the equation to incorporate a
'fraction of suitable stars into our
esti2ates
Footnotes
N (R) ( fp ) (ne) ( f ) ( fi ) ( fc ) ( L)

Footnotes
Many scholars and authors have utilized and
discussed Drake`s equation
A web search oI books and other resources
will reward viewers oI this presentation
with 2any additional insights concerning its
i2plications and applications
Particular credit should go to Frank Drake,
however, and his Iellow astrono2er Carl
Sagan
Made available courtesy oI
The Wecskaop Proiect
hat Everv Citizen Should Know bout Our Planet

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2ages courtesy oI R. Fe22er
2ages courtesy oI R. Fe22er
2ages courtesy oI R. Fe22er