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Input for Geological Risk Assessment

Johannes Klein & Jaana Jarva


April 2008, St. Petersburg

Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva

LIFE Third Countries


GeoInforM
LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267
1

Risk (technical approach)


The probability of harmful consequences, or expected losses
Risk = Hazard x Consequence
(deaths, injuries, property, livelihoods, economic activity
disrupted or environment damaged) resulting from
interactions between natural or human-induced hazards and
vulnerable conditions.
Conventionally riskExposure
is expressed by&theVulnerability
notation
Risk = Hazards x Vulnerability.
Some disciplines also include the concept of exposure to
refer particularly to the physical aspects of vulnerability.
(UNISDR 2004)

Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva

LIFE-Third Countries
GeoInforM
LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267

Input for the Risk Components

Hazard:
Type of hazard (geological instability, erosion, radon, flood.)
Probability of occurrence
Extent and magnitude

Exposure:
No. of people affected
No. of buildings affected
Length of affected network infrastructure (roads, pipelines, water
supply)

Vulnerability:
Sensitivity
Value

Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva

LIFE-Third Countries
GeoInforM
LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267

Examples for Vulnerability

Buildings vulnerability (sensitivity) to geological instabilities:


Vulnerability = construction type + age of building + height of
building + maintenance + single house or row of houses

Road networks vulnerability to geological instabilities:


Vulnerability = length + importance (+condition)

Peoples vulnerability to Radon:


Vulnerability = construction type of building + drinking water
source & consumption or radon in air

Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva

LIFE-Third Countries
GeoInforM
LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267

Input data

SC Mineral?

Geological Hazards:
Probability, Extent, Magnitude

Exposure and Vulnerability


Cadastral data (no. & type of houses, infrastructure)
Population density
Other: condition of infrastructure & houses, distribution of
population at day/night

CEP?

Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva

LIFE-Third Countries
GeoInforM
LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267

Table of Geological Risks and Vulnerability


Geological
Hazard

Hazard
Parameter

Exposed
Element

Exposure

Vulnerability

Parameters
and Indexes

Radon

Radon
concentration in
air over threshold

Population

Population in
radon prone
area

No. of people in
unprotected
houses

Foundation
types:
Slab-on-grade,
house with
basement, crawl
space

Vuotilainen, A.
and I. Mkelinen,
1993: Radon Risk
Mapping using
Indoor Monitoring
Data, Indoor Air
19943, 3, 369-375

Radon
concentration in
drinking water
over threshold

Population

People using
drinking
water with
radon
concentratio
n over
threshold

Amount of
consumed
radon affected
drinking water

Daily drinking
water
consumption:
Adults: 140
ml/day
Children: 200
ml/day
Ingestion-dosefactor:
Adults: 1x108
Sv/Bq
Children: 2x108
Sv/Bq

UNSCEAR 1993:
Soruces and
Effects of Ionizing
Radiation
UNSCEAR 1993
Report to the
General Assembly

Mapping of
ground stability

Buildings

No. of
Buildings

Height of
buildings, age,
construction
type,
maintenance,
aggregation of
buildings

Geological
Instability

See handed out table for more details


Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva

Explanatio
n

Sources

LIFE-Third Countries
GeoInforM
LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267

Radon Risk Map


Buildings vulnerability
(buildings function & no.
of floors)

Radon hazard forecast


(taken from the
radon-hazard map)

Very low

Very low

Low

Low

Medium

Medium

High

High

Very high

Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva

= Radon Risk

LIFE-Third Countries
GeoInforM
LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267

Buildings Vulnerability (first estimates)

Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva

LIFE-Third Countries
GeoInforM
LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267

Radon Risk Map

Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva

LIFE-Third Countries
GeoInforM
LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267

Weighting of hazards the Delphi method

Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva

Investigations of opinions and


ratings from hazard and spatial
planning experts on importance
of certain hazard on European
scale
Three round => average
estimation
Another application on regional
scale

LIFE-Third Countries
GeoInforM
LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267

10

Multi-hazard (multi-risk) mapping

Summing up of single hazard grid layers => classification of


multi-hazards into five classes (very high, high, medium, low,
very low)
Using the method of summing up the grids makes it possible to
look backwards what is the data behind the qualitative risk
assessment
See simplified example from Finland used to classify construction
suitability on the regional scale

Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva

LIFE-Third Countries
GeoInforM
LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267

11

Construction suitability data (simplified


example from Finland)

All data is converted to 25x25 metre grid

Soil types have classes 1-20, and other mapping elements have
classes 30-60
6 = clay, 60 = water

Slope steepness have classes 100-400


< 5 % = 100, > 30 % = 400

Thickness of fine-grained sediments have classes 1000-5000


< 2,5 m = 1000, > 25 m = 5000

Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva

LIFE-Third Countries
GeoInforM
LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267

12

Construction suitability data (2)

End result: Raster map where Quaternary geological mapping


data + slope steepness + thickness of fine-grained sediments are
summed up

Coding of grids:
1000 - 5000 thickness
100 - 400 slope steepness
1 - 16 soil type
Example: Grid-code = 3106

thickness of fine-grained sediments 3000 (= 4,5-13 m)


slope steepness 100 (= <5%)
soil type 6 (= clay)
Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva

LIFE-Third Countries
GeoInforM
LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267

13

Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva

LIFE-Third Countries
GeoInforM
LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267

14

MURLUMSS

Multi-Risk Land Use Management Support System

Map and scenario selection


Hazard analysis
Exposed elements analysis
Vulnerability analysis
Multiple criteria risk evaluation
Coping capacity analysis
Outputs
Output comparisons between scenarios

To be partly tested in GeoInforM project?

Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva

LIFE-Third Countries
GeoInforM
LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267

15

Risk factors, hazards (1)

Geological instability
Quaternary deposits
Engineering geology
Surface, 10 meters level, 20 meters level
Lithological groups (sand, gravel, peat etc.) => properties + thickness
Sub-groups of rocks

Hydrogeological properties
Groundwater level in different aquifers (changes)
Location of main aquifers
Piezometric heights

Neotectonics

Zones (calculated according to observed events)

Paleovalleys

Pre-quaternary reliefs

Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva

LIFE-Third Countries
GeoInforM
LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267

16

Risk factors, hazards (2)

Radon hazard
4 classes (very low, low, medium, high)

Nature gas generation


Areas with known natural gas generation
Areas recommended to be studied further
Areas with buried hydrological systems (lakes, river channels, also
artificial formed areas)
Gas collector wells (risk management) (point data)
Gas generation events (known risk) (point data)

Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva

LIFE-Third Countries
GeoInforM
LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267

17

Risk factors, hazards (3)

Nature gas generation (4 classes?)

Areas with known risk


Areas where further studies are needed
Areas with buried hydrological systems (natural and artificial)
Areas with managed risk

Karst formations
Location

Surface erosion
Relevant documents, datasets will be provided by SC Mineral

Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva

LIFE-Third Countries
GeoInforM
LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267

18

Risk factors, vulnerability (4)

Master plan
Current situation of land use
Land use in 2015
Land use in 2025

Buildings
Use of building
Number of floors
Type of building

Population density (three options)


Number of registered residents in buildings
Estimations based on type of building
Distribution of population density in the city

Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva

LIFE-Third Countries
GeoInforM
LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267

19

Further work

The attribute information of selected .shp-files will be translated


to English

English translations will be delivered by SC Mineral to GTK


either as separate tables or as .shp-files without any Cyrillic
writing by the end of May

GTK will first make proposal for classification of geologic


instability

Multi-hazard maps? Weighting of hazards; Delphi-method?

Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva

LIFE-Third Countries
GeoInforM
LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267

20

Relevance of geological risks

Results from questionnaire developed in Task 2


The most important risk according to four interviewed groups:
flooding caused by groundwater
Other relevant risks: karst formations and radon hazard

Geological instability?

Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva

LIFE-Third Countries
GeoInforM
LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267

21

Discussion

Difference between options of experts and people


Promotion needed

Johanne Klein & Jaana Jarva

LIFE-Third Countries
GeoInforM
LIFE06 TCY/ROS/000267

22

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