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SPECIAL PROBABILITY

DISTRIBUTION I
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
JUHAIDAH BT JAMAL

FACULTY OF TECHNICAL
AND VOCATIONAL
EDUCATION
UTHM

TABURAN
KEBERANGKALIAN?
Experiment:
Toss a coin 3 times.
Observe the number of
heads. The possible results
are: zero heads, one head,
two heads, and three heads.
What is the probability
distribution for the number
of heads?
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Probability Distribution of Number of


Heads Observed in 3 Tosses of a Coin

Random Variables
Random variable - a quantity
resulting from an experiment
that, by chance, can assume
different values.

Type of Probability
Distribution

Features of a Discrete
Distribution
The main features of a discrete
probability distribution are:
The sum of the probabilities of the

various outcomes is 1.00.


The probability of a particular
outcome is between 0 and 1.00.

BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
Binomial distribution is a basic distribution

that models chance variation in repetitions


of an experiment that has only two possible
outcomes.

Experiment

Success
p

Probability : p + q = 1
7

Failure
q

Example Binomial
Experiment:
When a coin is tossed, it can land heads or

tails.
When a baby born, it will be either male or
female.
In a basketball game, a team either win or
loses.
A medical treatment can be classified as
effective or ineffective, depending on
the results.
A person can be classified as having
normal or abnormal blood pressure,
depending on the results.

TABURAN BINOMIAL
Suatu uji kaji Binomial adalah suatu ujikaji
yang mempunyai ciri-ciri berikut :
Ujikaji itu terdiri daripada sebilangan n percubaan tak

bersandar.
Semua cubaan adalah merdeka/tidak bersandar satu
cubaan tidak saling mempengaruhi cubaan lain.
Setiap cubaan menghasilkan salah satu daripada 2
kesudahan yang disebut 'kejayaan' dan 'kegagalan'.
Kebarangkalian kejayaan berlaku dalam satu
percubaan ialah p dan nilai p adalah tetap dari satu
percubaan kepada satu percubaan;
Kebarangkalian kegagalan berlaku ialah q = 1- p
Pembolehubah rawak X ialah bilangan kejayaan yang
berlaku dalam n percubaan.
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Notation for the Binomial


Probability Distribution
P (S)

: The symbol for the probability of


success

P (F)

: The symbol for the probability of


failure

: The numerical probability of a


success

: The numerical probability of a


failure
: P(S) = p

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and

P(F) = 1 - p = q

: The number of trials

: The number of successes in n trials

Note that 0 X n and X = 0, 1, 2, 3, .. n.

Example 3.1
Consider the experiment consisting fifteen
tossed of a coin.
Determine if it is a binomial experiment.
Solution:
1. There are a total of 15 trials (tosses): n
=15.
2. Each trial (toss) has only two possible
outcomes: head or tail. Assume a head be
called 'success' and a tail be called 'failure'.
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3. The trials (tosses) are independent.


4.The binomial variable X is the number of

Takrif Taburan Binomial


Taburan Kebarangkalian Binomial ditulis sebagai
X ~ B (n,p)

dibaca sebagai :
" X mempunyai taburan Binomial dengan
parameter-parameter n dan p"
X = number of successes in n trials
n = number of trials
p = probability of success on single trial
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Binomial Probability
Formula
n
P(X = r) = p p r

Where

1-p

p q

p = probability of success on a single trial


q = probability of failure on a single trial(q = 1 - p)
n = number of trials
r = number of successes in n trials
n!
n
p = r!(n - r)!

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n- r

for r = 0,1,2,
..,n
n
r n- r

Example 3.3
Consider the binomial experiment of rolling a die

two times. Each time we record whether the


number of dots showing is odd (O) or even (E).
Let x be the total number of evens recorded.
Find the binomial proability distribution P(x).
First Solution:

n=2

The sample space is

OO, EO,
OE, EE

The binomial random variable, X is number of


success, which is the OO
number of evens. We have x
= 0,1,2.
OE,

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r=0
r =1
r =2

P(X=0) = P( EO
EE
P(X=1) = P(
P(X=2) = P(

)=
)=+=
)=

Example 3.3
Consider the binomial experiment of rolling a die

two times. Each time we record whether the


number of dots showing is odd (O) or even (E).
Let x be the total number of evens recorded.
Simple =)
Find the binomial probability distribution P(x).
more easier =)

Second Solution : using the binomial formula:

Let p = and q =
Therefore , the binomial random variable, X can
2
0
2
be written as X~B(2,)
0
P(X= 0) = C2 1()1 ()1 =
2
0
P(X=1) = C2 2() ()
=

P(X=2) = C () () =
15

EXAMPLE 3.4 (PG. 59)


A coin is tossed five times. Let X be a random variable for number of
head is recorded. Find the probability of getting

no head P(X=0)
B. exactly one head P(X=1)
C. fewer than two heads
P(X<2)
D. more than three heads P(X>3)
A.

E. at least three heads

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Let
probability of success (head),
P(X3)
p=
Probability of failure (tail),
q=

EXAMPLE 3.4 (PG. 59)


A coin is tossed five times. Let X be a random variable for number of
head is recorded. Find the probability of getting

A. at most one head P(X1)


B. not more than two heads P(X 2)
C. one to three heads P(1X3)
Let head P(2<X<5)
D. Between two and five
probability of success (head),
E. Two but less than four
heads
p = P(2X<4)
Probability of failure (tail),
q=

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Exercise 1:
There are five flights daily from Pittsburgh
via US Airways into the Bradford,
Pennsylvania, Regional Airport. Suppose the
probability that any flight arrives late is
0.20. What is the probability that none of
the flights are late today?
(Answer:0.3277)
Exercise 2:
A study in June 2003 by the Illinois
Department of Transportation concluded
that 76.2 percent of front seat occupants
18 used seat belts. A sample of 12 vehicles is

Exercise 3
Peratus kelulusan murid dalam satu
peperiksaan ialah 85%. Tentukan
kebarangkalian bahawa dua daripada
sembilan murid yang mengambil
peperiksaan tersebut akan gagal
dalam peperiksaan tersebut.
(Jawapan: 0.259)

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How To Use
Binomial
Probability Table
Although
the
binomial
distribution is easily evaluated
by calculators,
Sometimes
it
is
more
convenient to use binomial
probability
table
especially
when the times of trials more

than ten (10).


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TRY THIS :
= 0.5841
i. X ~ B (20, 0.40), Find P(X8)
= 0.0775
Ii. X ~ B (100, 0.06), Find P(X10)

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TIPS TO USE
BINOMIAL
PROBABILITY
TABLE

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Here are
some tips
how to
compute the
probability by
using table

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24

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N = 50
P = 0.4

Example 3.6 (PG 62)


a) P(x 15) = 0.9460
b) P(x 10) = 1 P (x 11)

= 1 0.9978 = 0.0022
c) P(x >20) = P(X 21) = 0.4390
d) P(X =12) = P(X 12) P(X 13)

= 0.9943 - 0.9867 = 0.0076


e) P(20 X 28)=P(X 20) - P(X 29)

= 0.5535 - 0.0076= 0.5459


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EXAMPLE 3.7 (Pg. 62)


A new medicine has been tasted and 35%
from the patients whose take that
medicine became healthy. If ten patients
are selected at random from general
hospital in order to take that medicine,
find the probability that
a) two patients become healthy
b) at least six patients will be

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healthy
c) not more than five patients
are healthy

Solution:

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Exercise 4:
35% daripada calon-calon yang mengambil
suatu peperiksaan telah gagal. Dengan
menggunakan jadual, cari kebarangkalian
bahawa dalam satu kelas 100 orang
murid yang mengambil peperiksaan ini,
(a) sekurang-kurangnya setengah
daripada kelas itu telah
gagal.
(Answer: 0.0015)
(b) tidak lebih daripada 35 orang murid
telah
gagal. (Answer: 0.5458)
(c) di antara 20 dan 35 orang murid telah
gagal.
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(Answer: 0.4616)

Exercise 5:
Seorang penjaga kereta mendapati bahawa
satu daripada setiap lima buah kereta yang
diletakkan di tempat kereta jagaannya
adalah kereta luar bandar. Pada satu hari
10 buah kereta diletakkan di situ. Cari
kebarangkalian bahawa:
(a) sekurang-kurangnya 2 buah kereta
luar bandar
diletakkan di tempat
letak kereta pada hari itu.
0.6242
(b) lebih daripada 2 tetapi kurang
daripada 5 buah kereta
luar bandar
diletakkan di tempat letak kereta pada
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hari
itu. 0.2894

Mean and variance of


Binomial Distribution

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EXERCISE 6-10
Bluman
6) A coin is tossed 4 times. Find the mean,

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variance, and standard deviation of the


number of heads that will be obtained.
(2;1;1)
7) If 3% of calculators are defective, find the
mean, variance, and standard deviation of
a lot of 300 calculators. (9;8.73;2.95)
8) It has been reported that 83% of federal
government employees use e-mail. If a
sample of 200 federal government
selected, fine the mean, variance, and
standard deviation of the number who use
e-mail. (166;28.22;5.31)

9) The Statistical Bulletin published by

Metropolitan Life Insurance Co. reported


that 2% of all American births result in
twins. If a random sample of 8000 births
is taken, find the mean, variance, and
standard deviation of the number of birth
that would result in twins.
(160;156.8;12.5)
10) A die is rolled 480 times. Find the mean,
variance, and standard deviation of the
number of 3s that will be rolled.
(80;66.67;8.16)
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Cont..