IAE 465,IAE365

MSc. Ana Moraga Pumarino

Depto. Administracin y Economa

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MCs. Ana Moraga Pumarino

 ASISTENCIA
PARTICIPACION

EN CLASES

CONSULTAS
EVALUACIONES
APOYO

INGLS
GANAS DE APRENDER

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MCs. Ana Moraga Pumarino

 Evaluacin 1: Martes 21 de abril (20%)

Evaluacin 2: Martes 26 de mayo (25%)
Evaluacin 3: Mircoles 1 de julio ( 35%)
Evaluaciones parciales: Se borra solo una y no tiene derecho a
justificacin

Test de lectura (se avisaran con dos semanas

de anticipacin)
Casos prcticos ( se entregarn en clases)
Tareas (se entregarn en clases)

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MCs. Ana Moraga Pumarino

Econometrics: Introduction

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MCs. Ana Moraga Pumarino

Econometrics is a set of research tools employed in the business

disciplinesofaccounting,finance,marketingandmanagement.Itisalso
used by social scientists, specifically researchers in history, political
science and sociology. Econometrics plays an important role in such
diversefieldsasforestry,andinagriculturaleconomics.

Studying econometrics fills a gap between being a student of

economicsandbeingapracticingeconomist.

By taking this econometrics`s course you will gain an overview of

what econometrics is about, and develop some intuition about how
thingswork.

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MCs. Ana Moraga Pumarino

 Thesupplyofanagriculturalcommoditysuchasbeefmight
bewrittenas

s
c
f

q f ( p, p , p )

qsisthequantitysupplied,pisthepriceofbeef,pcistheprice
of competitive products in production, and pf is the price of
factors or inputs (for example, the price of corn) used in the
productionprocess.

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MCs. Ana Moraga Pumarino

AquestionfacingCentralBank`sPresidentisHow muchshould
weincreasethediscountratetoslowinflation,andyetmaintaina
stable and growing economy? The answer will depend on the
responsivenessoffirmsandindividualstoincreasesintheinterest
rates and to the effects of reduced investment on Gross National
Product.Thekeyelasticitiesandmultipliersarecalledparameters.
The values of economic parameters are unknown and must be
estimated using a sample of economic data when formulating
economicpolicies.
Povertyquestions
Financequestions
FamilyIncomeandParticipationinUniversityEducation

THEN.
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MCs. Ana Moraga Pumarino

1. To decide how much advertising space to purchase in

thelocalnewspaperinordertoincreasesales.
2. To decide how much of your savings will go into a
stockfundandhowmuchintothemoneymarket.
3. To know if the median starting salary for new law
school graduates is explained by the rank of the law
school
DO YOU HAVE
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OTHER EXAMPLES?

MCs. Ana Moraga Pumarino

a. Econometrics is about how we can use economics,

business or social science theory and data, along with tools
from statistics, to answer how much type questions.
b. Econometrics is about how to best estimate
economic parameters given the data we have.
Good econometrics is important, since errors in
the estimates used by policy makers such as the
Central Bank may lead to interest rate corrections
that are too large or too small, which has
consequences for all of us.
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MCs. Ana Moraga Pumarino

Elija uno de los siguientes temas u otro que ud. sugiera y

responda:
Temas:
A. Pobreza
B. Felicidad
C. Rendimiento acadmico
D. Salario
E. Otro:.
Preguntas:
Cul es la pregunta que desea responder a travs de un modelo
Qu dice la teora respecto de los factores que explican la
variable dependiente?
Cul sera un ejemplo de hiptesis en funcin de la pregunta que
quiere responder?
Qu variables cree ud. debe incluir en el modelo (una a tres) y de
qu tipo son estas variables? Describa cada variable.
Donde buscara la data para realizar este estudio.

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Qu relacin existe
entre el desempleo y la
delincuencia?
Veamos grficamente
Hay relacin?

total number index crimes

164452

4124
2.4

unemployment rate

20.3

 Estimemos

el modelo

Crimen
'unem'

esta en porcentajes. 'crmrte' esta

en unidades por cada mil. Por lo tanto, si
'unem' afecta .43 veces 'crmrte'
significa...
... un incremento de 1 por ciento en la
tasa de desempleo esta asociado a poco
menos de 1/2 aumento de crmenes por
cada mil personas. Lo que es equivalente
aun aumento de un punto porcentual
en el desempleo genera un crimen
adicional cada dos mil personas

1. It all starts with a problem or question

2. Economic theory gives us a way of thinking about the problem
3. The working economic model leads to an econometric model.
4. Sample data are obtained, and a desirable method of statistical
analysis chosen, based on our initial assumptions, and our
understanding of how the data were collected.
5. Estimates of the unknown parameters are obtained with the help
of a statistical software package, predictions are made and
hypothesis tests are performed.
6. Model diagnostics are performed to check the validity of
assumptions weve made.
7. The economic consequences and the implications of the empirical
results are analyzed and evaluated. What remaining questions might
be answered with further study or new and better data?

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Teora
Econmica
Modelo
Matemtico
de la Teora
Modelo
economtrico
de la Teora
Datos

Estimacin del
Modelo
Economtrico
Prueba de
Hiptesis
Pronstico o
prediccin
MCs. Ana Moraga
Pumarino

Uso del Modelo

Control o Poltica

17

Introduccin a la Econometra, Jeffrey Wooldridge

1.Captulos 1 y 2
Paper: Salarios por Carrera en Chile

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time series formdata collected over discrete intervals of

time;

cross section formdata collected over sample units in a

particulartimeperiod;

Panel data formdatathatfollowindividualmicro-unitsover

time ( las mismas fuentes de datos son seguidas en el
tiempo)
Repeated Cross Section Data form (Pseudo panel)form
datacollectedoversampleunitsintwotimeperiods.
MCs. Ana Moraga Pumarino
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Ob
s

Ao

pviviv

mtrs2

1990

1200

120

1990

1230

100

1990

1300

130
Repeated Cross Section Data form (Pseudo
panel) formdata collected over sample units
intwotimeperiods.

..

20

2010

1500

120

2010

1670

125
obs

Pais

Ao

Tdelin
c

PIBperc

Chile

1990

0,15

1200

Chile

2010

0,25

1500

Argentina

1990

0.08

1800

Uruguay

1990

0.12

1560

58

Uruguay

2010

0,12

1650

59

Francia

1990

0,16

2600

Panel data formdatathat

2
followindividualmicro-units
overtime(lasmismasfuentes 3
dedatossonseguidasenel

tiempo)
57

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ExperimentalData
In an ideal world, from a researchers point of view, an
economic model would describe how we might design an
experiment that could be used to obtain economic
observationsorsampleinformation,thatthencouldbeused
toprovideinsightsabouttheunknowneconomicparameters.
RepeatingtheexperimentTtimeswouldcreateasampleof
Tsampleobservations

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2. NonexperimentalData
Mosteconomicdataarecollectedforadministrative
ratherthanresearchpurposes,oftenbygovernment
agencies.
BancoCentral
INE
BancoMundial
Etc.

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Thesedatamaybecollectedatvariouslevelsofaggregation:
microdata collected on individual economic decision making
unitssuchasindividuals,householdsorfirms.
macrodata resulting from a pooling or aggregating over
individuals,householdsorfirmsatthelocal,stateornationallevels.

Thedatacollectedmayalsorepresentafloworastock:
flowoutcome measures over a period of time, such as the
consumptionofgasolineduringthelastquarterof1999.
stockoutcomemeasuredataparticularpointintime,suchasthe
quantityofcrudeoilheldbyChevroninitsUSstoragetanksApril1,
1999

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The data collected may be quantitative or

qualitative:
quantitativeoutcomes such as prices or
incomethatmaybeexpressedasnumbersorsome
transformation of them, such as real prices or per
capitaincome.
qualitativeoutcomesthatareofaneither-or
situation. For example, a consumer either did or
didnotmakeapurchaseofaparticulargood,ora
personeitherisorisnotmarried.

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Thephrasestatistical inferencewillappearoftenin
thiscourse.Wewanttoinferorlearnsomething
abouttherealworldbyanalyzingasampleofdata.
Thewaysinwhichstatisticalinferenceareoutcarried
include:
Estimatingeconomicparameters,suchas
elasticities,usingeconometricmethods.
Predicting economic outcomes, such as the
enrollmentinUniversitiesforthenext10years.
Testing economic hypotheses, such as the question
of whether newspaper advertising is better than store
displaysforincreasingsales.

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