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Economics
Econ210D
Presentation 6
Sensitivity Analysis for Changing
Variables
Week 6
Changing Variables
Economic evaluations are made based on
assumed parameters
These parameters are likely to change
over life of field
Such changes would affect the feasibility
of the project
Sensitivity Analysis for Changing
Variables Week 6
Sensitivity
Analysis
Parameter
Recoverable
Reserves
160 mbo
Control
Field Life
20 years
Control
Oil Price
$60
Independent
Total CAPEX
$500m
Control
bbl
$5
Control
In OPEX
this per
sensitivity
analysis,
oil price
is the
NPV
$B
$50
$2.1
$60
$2.9
$70
$3.7
Spider Plots
Spider Plots
NPV due to change in Independent
Variables
Change in
Independ
ent
CAPE Reser Field
Price OPEX
Tax
Variable
X
ves
Life
-50%
0.0
-2.9
5.8
5.8
8.7
1.5
-25%
1.5
0.0
4.4
4.4
5.8
2.2
0%
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
25%
4.4
5.8
1.5
1.5
0.0
3.6
50%
5.8
8.7
0.0
0.0
-2.9
4.4
10
11
12
13
Home Work
Using the data in the following slide,
together with the data from presentation 4
conduct a sensitivity analysis based on the
changes in the slide which follows.
Use the results to construct a spider plot.
14
Independ
ent
Variable
Percenta
ge
Change
Price
OPEX
CAPEX
-50%
-2.9
5.8
50%
4.4
15