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INTRODUCCIN
La siguiente presentacin ha sido preparada siguiendo estrictamente los puntos
definidos en los Trminos de Referencia para la consultora:
Estudio para la seleccin de un mercado objetivo para la exportacin de Lcuma y
la elaboracin de plan de accin para promover las exportaciones del referido
producto al mercado seleccionado.
El presente documento constituye el informe preliminar de la consultora, que
incluye, como se estipula en el contrato, slo los puntos 1-4 descritos en los
Trminos de Referencia.
El informe consta de un total de 37 vistas (diapositivas) elaboradas por la empresa
consultora Tiara International Conuslting, con apoyo de au asociada para temas
agrarios, ACM Per.
1.3 Estimar el crecimiento de las reas cultivadas en los ltimos diez aos.
La data es insuficiente para poder determinar este punto.
complemento
Ventajas:
De acuerdo a los actuales clientes, el sabor y el aroma son los prinicplaes atractivos. Tambin el
color.
Las tendencias mundiales hacia lo tnico y el probar productos nuevos son una ventaja para la
lcuma.
La parte industrial no aumenta no tiene un alto impacto en el costo de produccin de derivados. Es
decir, dara igual procesar una lcuma o un mango; por lo que se considera que los costos de
procesamientos no incrementan el precio comparndolo con otras frutas.
El rbol es rstico, tiene pocas plagas y enfermedades
Frutal semi caducifolio, adaptado desde el nivel del mar hasta los 2800 msnm.
El cultivo de la lcuma se adapta a diferentes clases de suelo, teniendo tolerancia media a la
salinidad. El ph ptimo de este es 7 (neutro).
Este cultivo por sus caractersticas es posible de llevarlo de forma casi orgnica, con un mnimo
indispensable de agroqumicos.
Desventajas:
Producto caro: tiene baja productividad y altos costos de instalacin porque se
demora 4 a 5 aos en entrar en produccin (costo acumulado de instalacin y
mantenimiento). El costo final de produccin por kilo repercute en su potencial precio
de venta.
Heterogeneidad de producto: Eso tambin se debe a que los pequeos productores
tienen pocas hectreas con una alta diversidad gentica, enfrenteda adems a una
diversidad de limas y a tecnologas de manejo, que finalmente producen calidades
distintas.
No est estandarizada la planta ni el producto cosecha do. Los parmetros de
distincin entre primera, segunda y tercerca, varan.
El precio de la pulpa ofrecido en los mercados internacionales, es demasiado caro y el
cliente pierde inters.
Falta de estrategias de promocin y difusin de la informacin por parte de
Prolcuma.
Falta de cantidad de hectreas y estacionalidad hace difcil poder programar los
volmenes de exportacin.
En verano la Lcuma es muy rica amarilla pero en invierno cambia, puede ofrecer 4
colores: blanquisca, blanca dulce, blanca desabrida y marronesca los expertos
recomiendan que hay que agostar la planta y no dejar que la fruta salga en invierno.
TM
15
10
5
0
1
6
Ao
10
En parte ha sido respondido en el punto 2.1 2.2. Ms an, los volmenes producidos y exportados
son an muy pequeos y dispersos, para poder capitalizar sobre este tipo de evaluacin. Ver
siguiente cuadro
2.4 Hacer una evaluacin de las propiedades qumicas de cada derivado individual.
No se tiene suficiente informacin para hacer este tipo de comparacin, sin embargo en el siguiente
punto se describen algunas propiedades generales de cada derivado.
El valor agregado es un procesamiento simple dado que ya sea harina, liofilizado o pulpa se utilizan
como insumos para producir helados, yogurts; etc.
Por un lado el mercado prefiere harina dado que en el caso de los helados es m s fcil adicionar
colorante y sabor estandarizado. Adems no necesita de una logstica tan complicada.
El liofilizado tiene un sabor ms intenso; al compararlo con la harina sta pierde color, sabor y olor y
tiene que se mezclado para poder obtener el producto deseado; sin embargo con liofilizado son
pocas las propiedades fisicas que se pierden.
El producto de mayor potencial parece ser el de pulpa congelada porque las empresas de derivados
lcteos est ms acostumbrada a incorporar ese tipo de materia prima en su proceso.
Se defini la maquinaria y equipo necesario para cada uno de los derivados exportados.
consultora est introduciendo esta informacin para generar los flujos de caja respectivos.
La
Fuente: SUNAT
Elaboracin: Prolcuma
Fuente: SUNAT
Elaboracin: Prolcuma
2001
2005
US$/KG US$/KG
1.39
4.11
0
3.22
2.29
4.06
1.62
6.25
2.40
2.26
6.09
4.49
2.97
0
2.47
1.65
5.78
0
2001-04
2001-05
53.19%
46.08%
9.86%
(6.14%)
Total
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
3,244
3,321
3,892
4,359
4,882
5,467
6,124
6,859
16
64
320
480
800
960
3,247
3,322
3,908
4,423
5,202
5,947
6,924
7,819
Source: ComexPeru
Varias
Pulpas
Pulpa de
Lcuma
TOTAL
2001
2002
2003
2004
6,488
6,642
7,784
8,718
40
6,497
6,645
7,824
2005
2006
2007
2008
9,764
10,935
12,247
13,717
160
800
1,200
2,000
2,400
8,878
10,564
12,135
14,247
16,117
* Precios: US$ 2.5 lcuma (del 2005) y US$ 2 promedio para otras pulpas
** 80% de la produccin es proyectada para fines de exportacin.
2002
15
2003
20
2004
80
2005
400
2006
600
2007
2008
1,000
1,200
Participacin
de Prolucuma
En las
exportaciones
de jugos /
concentrados
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
0.12%
0.04%
0.41%
1.45%
6.15%
18.07%
11.55%
12.28%
9:10 am
11:45 am
2.
LCUMA Y SUS DERIVADOS
2.1 Identificar las caractersticas y ventajas de los derivados de la Lcuma.
2.2 Hacer una evaluacin de la produccin y propiedades qumicas de cada derivado individual.
2.3
Valor agregado en cada derivado.
2.4
Equipamiento e infraestructura necesarios para la produccin de los distintos derivados.
2.5
Capital de inversin y costos requeridos para la produccin de cada derivado.
V.- Conclusiones:
1:00 pm
Empresa
Frigorifico esmeralda
NISA
NISA
MINAG
INIA
AGAP
Belmont Foods
Liofilizadora del Pacifico
Prolucuma Huaral - Presi
Prolucuma Huaral - VicePresi
Prolucuma Huaral - Secretario
Prompex
Representante del Senor Jaime Zignago
Inmobiliaria Gallos SA
El Lcumo
El Lcumo
El Lcumo
ACM
ACM
ACM
ACM
Tiara
Representante
Hugo Valdez Osorio
Gastn Urbina
Javier Delgado
Jorge Amaya
Willy Daga
Sandro Farfan
Juan Daniel Payet
Lorena Olavarria
Ing. Luis Enrique Olivares Alegria
Abraham Salinas
Guillermo Suarez Toledo
Juan Carlos Mandujano
Valentin Garcia
Gonzalo Rosell
Telsforo Sojo Sulln
Maria Barreto Grundel
Stefan Bederski Fischer
Tony Salas
Gisela Camminati
Cesar Paredes
Rosario Alva
Trevor Norris
Asistencia
Asisti
No asisti
No asisti
No asisti
Asisti
No asisti
Asisti
Asisti
Asisti
Asisti
Asisti
No asisti
No asisti
No asisti
Asisti
No asisti
No asisti
Asisti
Asisti
Asisti
Asisti
Asisti
2:05 pm
3.
IDENTIFICACIN Y ANLISIS DE MERCADOS POTENCIALES
3.1 Se har un anlisis de la informacin, documentacin y bibliografa (publicaciones)
relevante disponible para determinar las formas y presentaciones ms convenientes
(pulpa, harina, etc.) para la exportacin de Lcuma procesada.
3.2 Se levantar informacin estadstica confiable y desagregada. Esto incluir precio FOB
y CIF, volumen y destinos.
3.3 Seleccin de una terna de los potenciales pases/mercados donde el producto pueda
ingresar exitosamente definicin de criterios crticos.
III.- Coffee Break: 2:45 pm
IV.- Discusin sobre el punto 4:
3:00 pm
4.
SELECCIN DE UN MERCADO OBJETIVO
Seleccionar entre la terna de candidatos definida cual ser el (los) mercado(s) objetivo para
la elaboracin del plan de accin de exportacin de Lcuma , utilizando una cartilla-matriz
elaborada por TIARA y ACM.
V.- Conclusiones y Clausura: 5:30 pm
ELEMENTOS DE IDENTIFICACIN Y
CRITERIO DE ANLISIS PARA EL MERCADO POTENCIAL
JAPN
UK
FRANCIA
ALEMANIA
ESPAA
COREA
294.49
127.78
60.57
60.64
82.71
11,483
3,603
1,727
1,683
2,293
921
675
38,994
28,196
28,513
27,759
27,720
22,758
13,746
40.4814
49.08
2.25%
1.50%
1.00%
0.75%
1.25%
0.15%
0.10%
2.50%
1.85%
1.15%
0.90%
1.40%
0.55%
0.25%
8.50%
4.95%
3.50%
3.25%
3.75%
1.37%
0.75%
14.25%
9.68%
11.15%
8.95%
9.15%
5.95%
2.11%
16.43%
15.12%
17.70%
21.66%
16.25%
23.52%
3.34%
21.15%
22.72%
41.00%
46.30%
41.00%
52.00%
74.68%
62.42%
62.16%
41.30%
32.04%
42.75%
24.48%
25.32%
5,292
2,296
1,088
1,090
1,486
727
882
7,056
3,061
1,451
1,453
1,982
970
1,176
1,235
536
254
254
347
170
206
1,358
589
279
280
381
187
226
30%
45%
25%
35%
37%
60%
75%
35%
55%
35%
45%
47%
70%
85%
7.50
8.50
7.25
7.10
7.60
6.00
7.25
5.00
4.00
4.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
8.00
7.00
5.00
6.25
5.00
6.00
6.00
6.50
FLETE
9.00
5.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
5.00
5.00
10.00
8.00
7.00
7.00
7.00
7.00
8.00
8.50
8.50
5.50
5.50
5.50
5.50
9.00
ARANCELES
BARRERAS NO ARANCELARIAS (FDA, POLTICAS, NOVEL FOODS, CERTIFC. ETC.)
VENTAS ACTUALES DE LCUMA Y SUS DERIVADOS (US$ MM)
0.04
0.02
13.58
15.31
7.26
7.26
9.91
4.85
5.88
27.17
30.61
14.51
14.53
19.82
9.70
11.76
1.00
0.72
0.73
0.71
0.71
0.58
0.35
1.00
1.00
0.66
0.51
0.68
0.39
0.41
1.00
0.43
0.21
0.21
0.28
0.14
0.17
1.00
0.43
0.21
0.21
0.28
0.14
0.17
1.00
0.43
0.21
0.21
0.28
0.14
0.17
1.00
0.43
0.21
0.21
0.28
0.14
0.17
0.41
0.65
0.41
0.53
0.55
0.82
1.00
PRICING EN EL MERCADO
0.88
1.00
0.85
0.84
0.89
0.71
0.85
COSTO DE PROMOCIN
0.63
0.50
0.50
0.38
0.50
0.63
1.00
ACCESO A LA DISTRIBUCIN
1.00
0.71
0.89
0.71
0.86
0.86
0.93
FLETE
1.00
0.56
0.44
0.44
0.44
0.56
0.56
ARANCELES
BARRERAS NO TARIFARIAS (FDA, POLTICAS, NOVEL FOODS, ETC.)
1.00
0.80
0.70
0.70
0.70
0.70
0.80
0.94
0.94
0.61
0.61
0.61
0.61
1.00
1.00
0.54
0.89
1.00
0.47
0.47
0.65
0.32
0.38
0.89
1.00
0.47
0.47
0.65
0.32
0.38
272.86
184.44
120.19
114.55
129.33
119.70
145.45
VARIABLES NORMALIZADAS
PONDER. (0 - 25)
USA
JAPN
UK
FRANCIA ALEMANIA
ESPAA
COREA
PONDER. (0 25)
18.5
1.00
0.72
0.73
0.71
0.71
0.58
0.35
17.9
1.00
1.00
0.66
0.51
0.68
0.39
0.41
17.4
1.00
0.43
0.21
0.21
0.28
0.14
0.17
3.8
1.00
0.43
0.21
0.21
0.28
0.14
0.17
16.6
1.00
0.43
0.21
0.21
0.28
0.14
0.17
20.3
1.00
0.43
0.21
0.21
0.28
0.14
0.17
10.5
0.41
0.65
0.41
0.53
0.55
0.82
1.00
PRICING EN EL MERCADO
12.5
0.88
1.00
0.85
0.84
0.89
0.71
0.85
COSTO DE PROMOCIN
20.9
0.63
0.50
0.50
0.38
0.50
0.63
1.00
ACCESO A LA DISTRIBUCIN
22.0
1.00
0.71
0.89
0.71
0.86
0.86
0.93
FLETE
8.5
1.00
0.56
0.44
0.44
0.44
0.56
0.56
ARANCELES
BARRERAS NO TARIFARIAS (FDA, POLTICAS, NOVEL FOODS, ETC.)
10.4
1.00
0.80
0.70
0.70
0.70
0.70
0.80
22.5
0.94
0.94
0.61
0.61
0.61
0.61
1.00
17.9
1.00
0.54
22.1
0.89
1.00
0.47
0.47
0.65
0.32
0.38
235.47
166.02
114.49
105.96
120.11
108.23
129.82
CONCLUSIONES
La lcuma es un producto caro comparado con los precios de otros frutales, dado que
tiene baja produccion por hectarea el proyecto deber plantear a qu precio se puede
ofrecer el producto si se incrementa sus rendimientos.
El precio en el mercado
internacional de pulpas congeladas s se considera un deal braker.
Se definieron seis factores claves para la toma de decision del mercado los cuales sealan
a USA y Japn como principales paises para comercializar los derivados de lcuma y stos
sern tomados en cuenta para el plan de acceso.
Para que el proyecto sea efectivo, se deber plantear polticas pblicas vinculadas a la
promocion de la inversion privada.
Se acord que los participantes completaran los datos econmicos para elaborar los flujos
de caja respectivos a produccin de campo, planta y agroexportacin industrial.
TARIFF ISSUES
U.S.-Peru Trade Promotion Agreement (USPTA),
Andean Trade Promotion and Drug Eradication Act (ATPDEA),
The Free Trade Agreement (FTA)/Trato del Libre Comercio (TLC):
Presently there are no tariffs on products such as Lucuma from Peru. Although Peru
and the United States have negotiated a holistic free trade agreement (FTA/TLC), as
of December 2006 it has not been fully ratified by both countries for unrelated internal
political reasons which occurred in both countries since its negotiation.
Nonetheless, exports from Peru are currently tariff free due to the ongoing Andean
Trade Promotion and Drug Eradication Act (ATPDEA) which is due to expire at the end
of 2006.
Due to the election results in the USA of November 2006, which changed the majority
in the US Senate and House of Representatives to the Democrat Party, the future of
the ratification process of the Free Trade Agreement (FTA/TLC) is unclear.
However, it is likely (and assumed for this report) that either the ATPDEA will be
extended (likely) or the Free Trade Agreement will be ratified prior to the swearing-in
of the new Democrat Majority (possible) or the new U.S. Congress will ratify it
immediately (unlikely).
Should there be no preferential trade agreement in force, many of the
assumptions, particularly those dependent to pricing must be reconsidered.
As an exotic product, the absence of a trade agreement would affect Lucuma much
less than other Peruvian Exports (such as cotton garments).
FDA REGULATIONS
Under the same Bioterrorism Act, foreign companies are required to submit
Prior Notice to the FDA before food is imported or offered for import into
the U.S.
Processed lucuma are used as raw materials for the food industry, as
well as the foodservice industry:
1. frozen lucuma pulp & fruit chunks: pulped and frozen - used as an
ingredient for ice-cream, yogurt, juices, cocktails, various desserts, jams,
sweet fillings, and confectionery
2. lucuma coulis sauce: used as ice-cream sauce/topping and decoration of
dishes - would mainly be used by the foodservice industry
3. aseptic or sterilized lucuma pulp (bag-in-box pack): does not require
refrigeration - used as a raw material in dessert, yogurt and ice-cream
4. thick lucuma filling: sweetened product - used directly as a filling for
doughnuts, cookies, waffles, truffles, etc.
5. lucuma pure: for direct consumption, marketed through supermarkets,
especially as a baby and childrens food
6. dried lucuma (chunks or flour): used as a raw material for ice-cream, cereal
mixes (muesli), and desserts in general
Ice cream
Yogurt
Sweet spreads
Confectionery
Breakfast cereal
Americas Food & Beverage Show & Conference in Miami, FL November 8~10, 2006
National Ice Cream Retailers Convention in Savannah, GA November 8~11, 2006
Expo Comida Latina in New York, NY November 14~15, 2006
Dairy Forum in Orlando, FL January 14~17, 2007
Winter Intl Fancy Food & Confection Show in San Francisco, CA January 21~23, 2007
World Ag Expo in Tulare, CA February 14~16, 2007
North America Pizza & Ice Cream Show in Columbus, OH February 25~26, 2007
Western Candy Conference in San Diego, CA March 21~25, 2007
SupplySide East Show in Secaucus, NJ April 30~May 2, 2007
Spring International Fancy Food & Confection Show in Chicago, IL May 6~8, 2007
Dairy-Deli-Bake Seminar & Expo in Anaheim, CA June 3~5, 2007
Summer Intl Fancy Food & Confection Show in New York, NY July 8~10, 2007
American Bakery Expo in Las Vegas, NV September 8~10, 2007
National Confectioners Assoc. All Candy Expo in Chicago, IL September 17~19, 2007
World Dairy Expo in Madison, WI October 2~6, 2007
International Baking Industry Expo in Orlando, FL October 7~10, 2007
Worldwide Food Expo in Chicago, IL October 24~27, USA
Mangoes
Peaches
Strawberries
Others
Flavor
Vanilla
Chocolate
Strawberry
Butter Pecan
Neapolitan
Chocolate chip
French vanilla
Cookies 'n' cream
Fudge ripple
Praline
Percent
29.0%
8.9%
5.3%
5.3%
4.2%
3.9%
3.8%
3.6%
2.6%
1.7%
Total U.S. production of ice cream and related frozen desserts in 2004
amounted to about 1.6 billion gallons, translating to about 21.5 quarts
per person.
Regular
Ice Cream
1999
972.2
2000
979.6
2001
970.1
2002
1005.0
2003
1015.1
% 2002-3 1.0%
Frozen
Yogurt
90.9
94.5
52.6
70.8
68.0
-4.0%
Sherbet
54.5
51.9
64.4
57.0
56.2
-1.4%
Water
Ices
70.3
65.8
71.2
67.6
67.5
-0.0%
Other Frozen
Dairy Products
13.9
11.6
10.5
8.7
7.9
-9.3%
Total Frozen
Products
1622.8
1607.6
1571.4
1568.6
1588.6
1.3%
In 2004, total U.S. sales of ice cream and frozen desserts reached
$21.4 billion. Of that total, $8.1 billion was spent on products for "at
home" consumption, while $13.3 billion was spent on "away from
home" frozen dessert purchases (scoop shops, foodservice and other
retail sales outlets.)
Sherbet (lbs)
Other Frozen
Products (lbs)
1995
15.5
7.4
1.3
4.8
1996
15.6
7.5
1.3
3.8
1997
16.1
7.8
1.3
3.2
1998
16.3
8.1
1.3
3.4
1999
16.7
7.5
1.3
3.1
2000
16.7
7.3
1.2
2.9
2001
16.3
7.3
1.2
2.2
2002
16.7
6.5
1.3
2.1
2003
16.4
7.5
1.2
2.0
2004
13.8
7.2
1.1
1.9
2005
14.4
5.9
0.9
1.5
Year
CUSTOMER ANALYSIS
ICE CREAM MANUFACTURERS - I
CUSTOMER ANALYSIS
ICE CREAM MANUFACTURERS - II
CUSTOMER ANALYSIS
ICE CREAM MANUFACTURERS - III
CUSTOMER ANALYSIS
ICE CREAM MANUFACTURERS - IV
CUSTOMER ANALYSIS
ICE CREAM MANUFACTURERS - V
CoolBrands International
CUSTOMER ANALYSIS
ICE CREAM MANUFACTURERS - VI
CUSTOMER ANALYSIS
ICE CREAM MANUFACTURERS - VII
Roberts Dairy
CUSTOMER ANALYSIS
ICE CREAM MANUFACTURERS - VIII
Stonyfield Farm
CUSTOMER ANALYSIS
ICE CREAM MANUFACTURERS - IX
CUSTOMER ANALYSIS
ICE CREAM MANUFACTURERS - X
CUSTOMER ANALYSIS
ICE CREAM RETAIL CHAIN - I
CUSTOMER ANALYSIS
ICE CREAM RETAIL CHAIN - II
CUSTOMER ANALYSIS
ICE CREAM RETAIL CHAIN - III
Coldstone Creamery
CUSTOMER ANALYSIS
ICE CREAM RETAIL CHAIN - IV
CUSTOMER ANALYSIS
ICE CREAM RETAIL CHAIN - V
MaggieMoos
CUSTOMER ANALYSIS
ICE CREAM RETAIL CHAIN - VI
CUSTOMER ANALYSIS
ICE CREAM RETAIL CHAIN - VII
Year
Flavored Whole
Milk
(million lbs)
Other Flavored
Milk
(million lbs)
1995
704
1,914
1,646
58,433
1996
662
2,075
1,588
58,912
1997
676
2,154
1,574
58,758
1998
788
2,256
1,639
58,618
1999
877
2,339
1,717
59,257
2000
892
2,444
1,837
59,085
2001
973
2,553
2,003
59,021
2002
1,030
3,010
2,135
59,369
2003
1,049
3,141
2,387
59,745
2004
857
3,440
2,709
60,012
2005
754
3,554
2,556
59,900
Yogurt
(million lbs)
Dannon (Danone)
Stonyfield Farm
Nestle USA
Kerns Beverages
Shamrock Farms
24.52 mm tons
38.17 mm tons
12.5 mm tons
$1,800 mm
Quantity
Value
Shipments...............................................................................................
6,493,573
16,880,338
Chocolate and chocolate-type confectionery.......................................................
3,529,387
9,982,793
2004
Quantity
Value
6,208,003
16,465,387
3,321,509
9,637,758
Solid........................................................................................................
557,171
1,380,880
515,558
1,324,781
695,998
232,100
717,137
3,748,341
291,074
825,854
Panned.....................................................................................................
627,028
1,584,268
572,468
1,477,856
1,620,171
395,757
1,543,789
2,260,636
4,508,332
1,341,513
568,283
1,247,816
585,572
1,336,842
Soft candy..............................................................................................
553,105
865,636
558,409
895,279
I ced/ coated................................................................................................
6,898
34,495
n/ a
n/ a
Panned.........................................................................................................
392,094
764,620
370,594
746,049
n/ a
n/ a
427,674
1,829,463
198,184
489,834
Nonchocolate-type confectionery............................................................................
2,375,779
4,782,775
Hard candy............................................................................................
581,815
242,456
498,738
on in 2004
2004
Value
Materials consumed...................................................................
n/ a 4,131,733
Sugar (cane-beet).....................................................................................
2,404,237
663,189
Cocoa beans.........................................................................
697,169
603,160
Quantity
Value
n/ a 3,963,981
2,367,551
658,321
729,265
571,046
162,671
n/ a
n/ a
13,070
17,603
n/ a
130,340
90,882
Cocoa butter..........................................................................
241,620
435,780
247,822
393,380
237,847
227,348
106,991
112,547
221,772
102,107
n/ a
66,934
62,565
1,052,761
481,863
326,548
150,387
50,675
81,024
97,970
Coconut meat.....................................................................................................
5,601
5,322
5,511
5,192
Gum base..........................................................................
n/ a
Almond kernels..................................................................
53,731
105,141
493,913
710,371
1/ I ncludes corn starch, essential oils, eggs and egg products, fruits, jams, and other materials on which specific data w
Nestle USA
Sees Candies
77.4 %
13.5 %
9.1 %
* Frozen cakes, pies and other pastries - includes frozen bakery products (except bread), such
as soft cakes (including fruit), pies (including fruit, cream and custard) doughnuts,
danishes, cream puffs, eclairs, fruit muffins and other pastries for immediate human
consumption
Industry
Year
Revenue ($ mil)
1995
13210.8
1996
10283.6
1997
10108.1
1998
10596.6
1999
11668.9
2000
11702.5
2001
11813.9
2002
9098.5
2003
9077.8
Average Annual Growth
% Change
-2.2
-22.2
-1.7
4.8
10.1
0.3
1.0
-23.0
-0.2
-2.5
Industry Gross
Product ($ mil)
10267.8
7307.6
7283.5
7806.7
8891.0
8926.8
0.4
9006.2
6792.4
6563.6
% Change
0.3
-28.8
-0.3
7.2
13.9
0.9
-24.6
-3.4
-2.8
Kellogg Company
Fresh lucuma is not available in the U.S. so users must purchase lucuma
derivatives some would prefer to use fresh lucuma
Goya, a well known manufacturer and marketer of frozen food, Caribbean and
Latin American Cuisine appears to have a good experience of Lucuma Sales to
Ice Cream Segment
Goya started marketing frozen lucuma as recently as the 2006 spring in the US
They claim to have sold as much as 2,500 cases so far (with each case
containing 24 - 14 oz cans
They feel that the ice cream industry seems to like lucuma flavoring
This has been already carried out in the earlier meeting with the
Lucuma Group on August 9, 2006
Bioactive Resources
Diana Naturals
Food Partners
FruitSmart Inc.
iTi Tropicals
RFI Ingredients
It is useful to spend some time and money with companies carrying out special
research in these areas in the US
Once this is done, the next step would be to offer the products to various
manufacturers to try the products
Only after this, the Distribution Channel should be offered the product to store
and sell after creating suitable demand in the market
A good market research after developing proper taste and flavorings is therefore
essential
COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS - I
Lucuma has to develop a Market Entry Strategy against stiff competition from all
other flavorings
In Fruit Pulp Category alone, it meets with competition from the following:
The above add up to 68.3% and the balance is shared hundreds of products
accounting for 31.7%
Lucuma will have to start as one of the products in the 31.7% category
It is well known that Baskin Robbins have over 50 flavorings in their regular
retail chain
COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS - II
In Millions of US$
985
372
617
364
729
1,598
1,961
6,626
The number of incremental jobs created and the incremental wage bill
for the first 5 years would be as below:
CALENDAR YEAR
NUMBER OF INCREMENTAL
JOBS CREATED EACH YEAR
TOTAL COSTS OF LABOR
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2015
69
72
75
521
1,063
1,626
1,660
1,694
1,842
7,234
2,731
4,532
1,820
15,547
508
35,361
7,992
9,806
1.09%
Yogurt Segment
1.00%
2.89%
1.10%
Confectionery Segment
1.20%
2.20%
1.83%
Making presentations similar to what Brazil did for their special berry
product, CIAO last year in US Trade Shows
It is also known that some of users of Lucuma for their ice-creams and
chocolate truffles are importing directly from their own sources in Peru
at $2.50 per Kgm.
STRATEGIC OPTIONS
PROJECTED MARKET SHARES
0.23%
0.15%
0.17%
0.15%
0.20%
0.23%
0.29%
17.50%
12.50%
10.00%
22.50%
15.00%
11.00%
9.00%
3 Years
$1.70
68.0%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2015
1,123
2,270
3,442
3,479
3,517
3,672
213
456
731
780
834
1,086
307
631
974
1,003
1,032
1,156
208
421
638
645
652
681
58
116
177
179
181
190
695
1,420
2,178
2,225
2,274
2,481
869
1,770
2,703
2,752
2,803
3,014
3,473
7,085
10,842
11,064
11,293
12,280
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2015
3,473
7,085
10,842
11,064
11,293
12,280
2,361
4,818
7,373
7,524
7,679
8,351
1,111
2,267
3,470
3,541
3,614
3,930
69
72
75
521
1,063
1,626
1,660
1,694
1,842
350
NUMBER OF INCREMENTAL
JOBS CREATED EACH YEAR
65
65
65
65
65
690
690
690
690
690
218
1,626
1,818
2,381
2,415
2,449
2,060
449
1,088
1,126
1,165
1,869
(515)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2015
1,389
2,834
4,337
4,426
4,517
4,912
INCREMENTAL CAPITAL
INVESTMENT NEEDED M$
1,465
CUMULATIVE CAPITAL
INVESTMENT - M$
1,465
1,465
1,465
1,465
1,465
183
183
183
183
183
WORKING CAPITAL
NEEDED - M$
1,347
2,748
4,206
4,292
4,381
4,764
INCREMENTAL WORKING
CAPITAL - M$
1,347
1,401
1,458
86
89
100
121
247
379
386
394
429
DEPRECIATION OF
CAPITAL INVESTMENT M$
WORKING CAPITAL
INTEREST COSTS - M$
1,465
CALENDAR YEAR
2007
AFTER TAX
CASHFLOW FOR
INDUSTRY NOMINAL - M$
(2,304)
(2,304)
(2,237)
(2,237)
2008
196
(2,108)
185
(2,052)
2009
536
(1,572)
490
(1,562)
2010
556
(1,016)
494
(1,068)
2011
577
(439)
497
(570)
2015
2021
965
1,243
3,102
9,947
740
798
2,260
6,981
170,970
9,947
280
2,340
26%
22%
5.58
5.90
7.17
2.14
Strategic Graphs
The grapghs show results with and without the suggested 2% annual
price increase as market penetration, demand and channel efficiency
increase
The 2% Price Increase converts the DRA (Decision and Risk Analysis) for
Peru Lucuma S.A. (the entire industry as if it were a firm) from an
approcimately 32% risk (considering 2187 iterations of the 7 key variables)
to an approximately 8.5% risk (using the same 2817 iterations)
Strategic Graphs
The following Tornado Diagram and S-Curve
(Decision and Risk Analysis)
show the effect of a 2% annual price increase
Some Traditional
and Non-Traditional Lucuma Presentations
The Lucuma industry has niche opportunities in the USA, and can achieve
significant profitability at relatively or very low risk by reaching minute
market shares in key products such as Ice Cream, Flavored Milk and as a
Bakery Ingredient
Next Steps
Despite the completion of the project, Tiara is willing to re-run the DRA based
on improved data which may come available based on tighter industry
coordination, and furthermore modify any strategic conclusions and
recommendations
PROMPEX and PROLUCUMA, and key industry players must convene and decide
what political and financial resources are available for solidifying the industry,
and what strategy recommendations they wish to adopt.
Upon this decision, further study should be undertaken based on the new realities
concluded by the relevant parties
Now that the ideal plan has been developed, Tiara International Consulting is
willing, as an additional study, to adopt a plan based on decisions taken by the
relevant participants.
The Land-Trust concept mentioned earlier should be considered. If accepted it must
be developed with sound economic study and marketing plan (based on the acreage
of willing participants)
If within a reasonable time (e.g. 1 quarter) inertia or other factors delay the
adoption of a holistic plan, individual firms can and should seek opportunities in
the meantime to tap the markets and contacts identified. This is a sub-optimal
solution.
TIC LLC
www.ticllcglobal.com