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PSHA
Presented By
RAVINDRA K. GOLIYA
Introduction
Aleatory uncertainty
Epistemic uncertainty
Aleatory Uncertainty
Uncertainties that are related to an apparent
randomness in nature.
Epistemic Uncertainty
Uncertainties due to insufficient knowledge are
known as epistemic uncertainties.
Logic Tree
Logic tree contains a series of nodes and
branches.
Each node represents an assessment of a state
of nature or an input parameter.
a sufficient number of
at a given node to
the uncertainty in the
An expression of belief.
frequency-based probabilities
1. Weights at a node must sum to unity.
2. Events for which they are defined must be
exhaustive.
3. Events for which they are defined must be
mutually exclusive.
4. Must represent the relative rate at which
alternative events are occurring.
1.
2.
3.
4.
when
used
in
Conclusion