POTENTIAL AREA FOR SOLAR ENERGY

GENERATOR AND ITS BENEFIT TO CLEAN

DEVELOPMENT MECHANISM (CDM) IN
INDONESIA

Dr. Armi Susandi, MT.

Head of Meteorology Department, ITB

OUTLINE

Introduction: Global Climate & Indonesia

Projection of Temperature Change in Indonesia
Projection of Global CO2 Emission
Projection of CO2 Emission in Indonesia
Map of Potential Area for Renewable Energy in
Indonesia
Projection of Solar Energy Development in
Indonesia
East Java for Potential Area of Solar Energy
Projection of CDM value from Solar Energy
Development

Global Climate
Human activities have affect global climate
change.
Climate change increases mean
temperature in eart surface caused of
greenhouse gas, including: CO2, CH4, N2O,
HFCS, PFCS, dan SF6.
Greenhouse gas are usually result of fossil
energy, forest fire, and agricultural
activities.

Indonesia
This country is the forth biggest population,
with amount of people about 215 million
(2003), tropical and maritim area.
Indonesia has reserve of coal, natural gas,
and oil that is very significant.
As main contibutor for greenhouse emission
from energy sector.
Indonesia has ratified Kyoto Protocol, 19th
October 2004.

PROJECTION OF
TEMPERATURE CHANGE
IN INDONESIA

Year = 2000

Source: Susandi, 2006

Year = 2010

Source: Susandi, 2006

Year = 2020

Source: Susandi, 2006

Year = 2040

Source: Susandi, 2006

Year = 2050

Source: Susandi, 2006

Year = 2060

Source: Susandi, 2006

Year = 2070

Source: Susandi, 2006

Year = 2080

Source: Susandi, 2006

Year = 2090

Source: Susandi, 2006

Year = 2100

Source: Susandi, 2006

Year = 2100

Source: Susandi, 2006

Forest Fire

Change of Mean Temperature

Storm
Source: Susandi, 2006

Year = 2100

Landslide
El-Nino & La-Nina

CO2 Emission as Result of Fossil Energy and

Landuse Change

(Source : Brasseur et al., 1999)

CO2 Emission
(Gt/year)

PROJECTION OF GLOBAL CO2 EMISSION

Year

Source: Susandi, 2007

CO2 Emission (Gt/year)

PROJECTION OF GLOBAL CO2 EMISSION IN INDONESIA

Base

Year

Source: Susandi, 2007

CO2 Emission (Gt/year)

PROJECTION OF GLOBAL CO2 EMISSION IN INDONESIA

Base

Year

Source: Susandi, 2007

CO2 Emission (Gt/year)

PROJECTION OF GLOBAL CO2 EMISSION IN INDONESIA

Base

Mitigation

Year

Source: Susandi, 2007

SOLAR ENERGY

Potency of Solar Energy in Indonesia

Intensity of Solar Radiation in
Indonesia reach to 4.8 kWh/m2/day

Energy Planted = 8 MW

Flux of Mean Solar Radiation in

1976 to 2005 (W/m2)

W/m2

Source: Susandi et al., 2008

Map of Potential Area for

Renewable Energy in Indonesia

= Wind Energy
= Solar Energy
= Biofull Energy
= Geothermal Energy
= Coal Energy

Source: Susandi, 2008

Projection of Solar Energy

Development in Indonesia

Year
Source: Susandi, 2008

SMARTS MODEL FOR

ESTIMATING SOLAR RADIATION
Climate
Parameters

Model
SMARTS
Solar Radiation in
Wavelength
Spectrum

Integration of Solar Radiation

Spatial Map of
Solar Radiation

Spatial Map of Monthly Solar

Radiation in Year 1988 to 2002
-7

January
P a s u ru a n
-7 .5

T re te s

Kedaw ung

W r in g in a n o m

J a tir o to

-8

Banyuw angi

112

1 1 2 .5

113

1 1 3 .5

114

L O N G IT U D E

440

455 470 485 500 515 530

545 560 575 590 605 620 635 650 665 680 695 710 725

740

W/m2

Source: Susandi et al., 2008

Spatial Map of Monthly Solar

Radiation in Year 1988 to 2002
-7

February
P a s u ru a n
-7 .5

T re te s

Kedaw ung

W r in g in a n o m

J a tir o to

-8

B anyuw angi

112

1 1 2 .5

113

1 1 3 .5

114

L O N G IT U D E

440

455 470 485 500 515 530

545 560 575 590 605 620 635 650 665 680 695 710 725

740

W/m2

Source: Susandi et al., 2008

Spatial Map of Monthly Solar

Radiation in Year 1988 to 2002
-7

March
P a s u ru a n
-7 .5

T re te s

Kedaw ung

W r in g in a n o m

J a tir o to

-8

B anyuw angi

112

1 1 2 .5

113

1 1 3 .5

114

L O N G IT U D E

440

455 470 485 500 515 530

545 560 575 590 605 620 635 650 665 680 695 710 725

740

W/m2

Source: Susandi et al., 2008

Spatial Map of Monthly Solar

Radiation in Year 1988 to 2002
-7

April
P a s u ru a n
-7 .5

T re te s

Kedaw ung

W r in g in a n o m

J a tir o to

-8

B anyuw angi

112

1 1 2 .5

113

1 1 3 .5

114

L O N G IT U D E

440

455 470 485 500 515 530

545 560 575 590 605 620 635 650 665 680 695 710 725

740

W/m2

Source: Susandi et al., 2008

Spatial Map of Monthly Solar

Radiation in Year 1988 to 2002
-7

May
P a s u ru a n
-7 .5

T re te s

Kedaw ung

W r in g in a n o m

J a tir o to

-8

B anyuw angi

112

1 1 2 .5

113

1 1 3 .5

114

L O N G IT U D E

440

455 470 485 500 515 530

545 560 575 590 605 620 635 650 665 680 695 710 725

740

W/m2

Source: Susandi et al., 2008

Spatial Map of Monthly Solar

Radiation in Year 1988 to 2002
-7

June
P a s u ru a n
-7 .5

T re te s

Kedawung

W r in g in a n o m

J a tir o to

-8

B anyuw angi

112

1 1 2 .5

113

1 1 3 .5

114

L O N G IT U D E

440

455 470 485 500 515 530

545 560 575 590 605 620 635 650 665 680 695 710 725

740

W/m2

Source: Susandi et al., 2008

Spatial Map of Monthly Solar

Radiation in Year 1988 to 2002
-7

July
P a s u ru a n
-7 .5

T re te s

Kedawung

W r in g in a n o m

J a tir o to

-8

B anyuw angi

112

1 1 2 .5

113

1 1 3 .5

114

L O N G IT U D E

440

455 470 485 500 515 530

545 560 575 590 605 620 635 650 665 680 695 710 725

740

W/m2

Source: Susandi et al., 2008

Spatial Map of Monthly Solar

Radiation in Year 1988 to 2002
-7

August
P a s u ru a n
-7 .5

T re te s

Kedawung

-8

W r in g in a n o m

J a tir o to

B anyuw angi

112

1 1 2 .5

113

1 1 3 .5

114

L O N G IT U D E

440

455 470 485 500 515 530

545 560 575 590 605 620 635 650 665 680 695 710 725

740

W/m2

Source: Susandi et al., 2008

Spatial Map of Monthly Solar

Radiation in Year 1988 to 2002
-7

September
P a s u ru a n
-7 .5

T re te s

Kedaw ung

-8

W r in g in a n o m

J a tir o to

B anyuw angi

112

1 1 2 .5

113

1 1 3 .5

114

L O N G IT U D E

440

455 470 485 500 515 530

545 560 575 590 605 620 635 650 665 680 695 710 725

740

W/m2

Source: Susandi et al., 2008

Spatial Map of Monthly Solar

Radiation in Year 1988 to 2002
-7

October
P a s u ru a n
-7 .5

T re te s

Kedawung

-8

W r in g in a n o m

J a tir o to

B anyuw angi

112

1 1 2 .5

113

1 1 3 .5

114

L O N G IT U D E

440

455 470 485 500 515 530

545 560 575 590 605 620 635 650 665 680 695 710 725

740

W/m2

Source: Susandi et al., 2008

Spatial Map of Monthly Solar

Radiation in Year 1988 to 2002
-7

November
P a s u ru a n
-7 .5

T re te s

Kedawung

-8

W r in g in a n o m

J a tir o to

B anyuw angi

112

1 1 2 .5

113

1 1 3 .5

114

L O N G IT U D E

440

455 470 485 500 515 530

545 560 575 590 605 620 635 650 665 680 695 710 725

740

W/m2

Source: Susandi et al., 2008

Spatial Map of Monthly Solar

Radiation in Year 1988 to 2002
-7

December
P a s u ru a n
-7 .5

T re te s

Kedaw ung

-8

W r in g in a n o m

J a tir o to

B anyuw angi

112

1 1 2 .5

113

1 1 3 .5

114

L O N G IT U D E

440

455 470 485 500 515 530

545 560 575 590 605 620 635 650 665 680 695 710 725

740

W/m2

Source: Susandi et al., 2008

MERGE: an Integrated Assessment

Model
(Model for Evaluating the Regional and Global Effects of
Greenhouse Gas Reduction Policies)

(Manne et al., Susandi, 2004)

http://www.stanford.edu/group/MERGE/

Region di MERGE 4.3

Negara Annex I
1.
2.
3.

United States
Western Europe
Japan

6.
7.
8.

4.

CANZ (Canada,
Australia, New Zealand)
EEFSU (Eastern Europe,
Former Soviet Union)

9.

5.

Negara Non-Annex
I
China
India
MOPEC
(Mexico+OPEC)
ROW (rest of the
world)

10. Indonesia

CO2 Reduction from Fossil

Substituted by Solar Energy

Source: Susandi, 2008

Projection of CO2 Price

Source: Susandi, 2008

Incoming from CO2 Substitution by

Solar Energy

Source: Susandi, 2008

thank you

armi@geoph.itb.ac.id
www.armisusandi.co
m