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hypotheses
Hypotheses
Potential explanations that can account for
our observations of the external world
They usually describe cause and effect
relationships
Observations from
Manipulative experiments
Observational or correlative studies
Hypothesis
Suggested by the
data
Existing body of
scientific literature
Predictions of
theoretical models
Our own intuition and
reasoning
Scientific method
Is the technique used
to decide among
hypotheses on the
basis of observations
and predictions
Statistics
It is an inductive process: we are trying to
draw general conclusions based on a
specific, limited sample
Prediction
generates
hypothesis
NO, modify
hypothesis
New
observations
Do new
observations match
predictions?
YES,
confirm
hypothesis
Accepted
truth
How do we generate an
appropriate null hypothesis?
Example:
The photosynthetic
response of leaves to
increases in light
intensity
kX
Y
(D X )
Prediction A
hypothesis
hypothesis
Prediction B
Prediction C
New
observations
NO, falsify
hypothesis
Do new
observations match
predictions?
hypothesis
Prediction D
YES, repeat
attempts to
falsify
Multiple
failed
falsifications
Accepted
truth
Statistical tests
Decision Errors
Because we have incomplete and imperfect information,
there are four possible outcomes when testing a H0:
1.
2.
3.
4.
Decision Errors
Type I Error
If we falsely reject a null hypothesis that is true, we have
made a false claim that some factor above and beyond
random variation is causing patterns in our data.
In environmental impact assessment would be a false +
It is signified by the greek letter: (alpha)
This error only occurs when the H0 is indeed true.
Generally, this is the most concerning error because it
misleads us into believing that our results are significant
when they are not. Producer error
Type I Error
Type II Error
This error occurs when there are systematic differences
between the groups being compared, but the investigator
has failed to reject the null hypothesis and has concluded
incorrectly that only random variation among observations
is present.
In environmental impact assessment would be a false -
It is signified by the greek letter: (Beta)
This error only occurs when the H0 is false.
A Type II error will mislead you into thinking that there is no
significant effect happening, when in actuality there is.
Depending on the experimental design, this type of error
can be just as damaging (e.g. environmental impact
surveys, medical diagnosis, etc). Consumer error
Type II Error
Power
(1-): equals the probability of correctly
rejecting the null hypothesis when is false
Ideally, we would like to minimize both
Type I and Type II errors in our statistical
inference. However strategies designed to
reduce Type I error inevitably increase the
risk of Type II error, and vice versa.
Power
1.
2.
3.
4.
Estimating Power
ES n
Power