Decision Support,

Knowledge Management and

Expert Systems

Brian Mennecke
 How can IT be used to
support decision makers?
• By supporting various individual and team activities
and roles:
– Communication and team interaction
– The assimilation and filtering of data
– Assist with problem recognition
– Assist with problem solving
– Putting together the results into a cohesive package
Data is turned into information, but
the decision maker also needs
Knowledge to make decisions
• Types of knowledge:
– Descriptive Knowledge
– Procedural Knowledge
– Reasoning Knowledge
• Forms of Knowledge
– Tacit Knowledge
– Explicit Knowledge
Examples of technologies that can support or
enhance the transformation of knowledge
(IBM Systems Journal)

Tacit to Tacit Tacit to Explicit

E-meetings Answering
questions
Synchronous collaboration (chat) Annotation

Explicit to Tacit Explicit to Explicit

Visualization Text search

Browsable video/audio of Document
presentations categorization
Knowledge Management Tools
• Text and Forms management
• Database and Reporting management
• Spreadsheet, Solvers and Charts
management
• Programming management.
• Rules management
Decision Support Systems (DSS)
DSS can be classified as
– data-oriented
• provide tools for the manipulation and analysis of data
– model-based
• generally have some kind of mathematical model of the decision
being supported
 A model of a DSS
External and
Internal Data
Data Management Model Management
Attribute Data Aspatial Models
Attribute
Data

Object
Data Knowledge
Management

Dialog Management
Attribute-Based Queries and Reports

Decision Other
Maker Information
Systems
A model of a Spatial DSS
External and
Internal Data
Data Management Model Management
Attribute Data Aspatial Models
Attribute
Spatial Data Spatial Models
Data

Object
Data Knowledge
Management

Spatial
Data Dialog Management
Attribute-Based Queries and Reports
Spatial-Based Queries and Reports

Decision Other
Maker Information
Systems
 So, how does a DSS benefit
decision makers
• Supplements the decision maker
• Allows improved intelligence, decision,
and choice activities
• Facilitates problem solving
• Provides assistance with non-structures
decisions
• Assists with knowledge management
Information Requirements by
Management Level

Strategic
Management

In
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rm
si

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Tactical
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Management

n
Operational
Management
Structured vs. Semi-Structured
• For each decision you make, the
decision will fall into one of the
following categories:
– Structured Decisions
– Unstructured
– Semi-Structured
 Structured Decisions
• Often called “programmed decisions”
because they are routine and there are
usually specific policies, procedures, or
actions that can be identified to help make
the decision
– “This is how we usually solve this type of
problem”
 Unstructured Decisions
• Decision scenarios that often involve new
or unique problems and the individual has
little or no programmatic or routine
procedure for addressing the problem or
making a decision
 Semi-structured Decisions
• Decision scenarios that have some
structured components and some
unstructured components.
The Role of the Decision Maker
• Decision makers can be
– Individuals
– Teams
– Groups
– Organizations
• All of these types of decision makers will differ in their knowledge and
experience; therefore, there will be differences in how they will react to a
given problem scenario
The Decision Making Process
• Regardless of the type of decision
maker, all decisions involve the
following steps
– Intelligence
– Design
– Choice
– Decision
– Implementation
Strategies for Making Decisions
• Optimization
• Satisficing
• Elimination by Aspects
• Incrementalism
• Mixed Scanning
• Analytic Hierarchy Process
 Spatial DSS: A Geographic
Information System
• A geographic information system (GIS) is
a computer-based information system that
provides tools to collect, integrate,
manage, analyze, model, and display data
that is referenced to an accurate
cartographic representation of objects in
space.
(Mennecke, Dangermond, Santoro, Darling, & Crossland, 1995).
 Location Based Services
• Location-based services incorporate
information about the user's location into the
provision of products or services. These
include…
– Locator services (e.g., where’s the closest ATM?)
– Navigation systems (e.g., in the car or on your PC)
– M-commerce applications (e.g., proximity alerts,
closest service, mobile advertizing)
 GIS Examples
• Online:
– www.MapQuest.com
– Maps.google.com
• Desktop
– ArcGIS by ESRI
– MS MapPoint
 Expert Systems
• Advisory programs that attempt to imitate
the reasoning process of human experts
• Reasons to build Expert Systems
– to make the expertise of an individual available
to others in the field
– to capture knowledge from an expert who is
likely to be unavailable in the future
– to provide consistency in decision making
Characteristics of Human Experts
• Recognize and Formulate the problem
• Solve the problem relatively quickly
• Explain the solution and rationale
• Learn from experience
• Restructure knowledge
• Break the rules when necessary
• Determine relevance
Components of an Expert System
• An expert system consists of a collection
of integrated and related components,
including
– Knowledge Base
– An Inference Engine
– Explanation Facility
– Knowledge Acquisition Subsystem
– A User Interface.
Characteristics of Expert Systems
• Expert systems have the ability to:
– Explain their reasoning or suggested
decisions.
– Display “intelligent” behavior.
– Manipulate symbolic information and draw
conclusions.
– Draw conclusions from complex relationships.
– Provide portable knowledge.
– Can deal with uncertainty.
 Limiting Characteristics of
Expert Systems
– Possibility of error.
– Cannot refine own knowledge base.
– Difficult to maintain.
– May have high development costs.
– Raise legal and ethical concerns.
– Expertise is hard to extract
– Expert Vocabulary and Jargon
– Requires a Knowledge Engineer
– Experts do not perform well under pressure
 Uses of Expert Systems
• Strategic goal setting • Debugging
• Planning • Repair
• Design • Instruction
• Scheduling • Control
• Monitoring • Prediction
• Diagnosis • Interpretation
 When to Use Expert Systems
• Factors that make expert systems worth
the high cost:
– A high potential payoff or significantly reduced
downside risk.
– The ability to capture and preserve
irreplaceable human experience.
– The ability to develop a system more
consistent than human experts.
When to Use Expert Systems
– Expertise needed at a number of locations at
the same time.
– Expertise needed in a hostile environment that
is dangerous to human health.
– The expert system solution can be developed
faster than the solution from human experts.
– Expertise needed for training and development
so as to share the wisdom and experience of
human experts with many people.
 Sample Expert Systems
• What’s wrong with your car?
http://www.expertise2go.com/webesie/car/
• Buying the right PDA
http://www.expertise2go.com/shop/pda.htm
• Choosing a Desktop PC
http://www.expertise2go.com/shop/desktop.htm