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PERT
The Program Evaluation and Review
Technique (PERT) is a network model that
allows for randomness in activity
completion times.
Generally used when there is a risk of time
associated with project.
R & D projects where correct time
determinations cannot be made.
Example : Project on launching the spacecraft.
PERT
PERT was developed in the late 1950's for
the U.S. Navy's Polaris ballistic missile
system project having thousands of
contractors.
This project was notable in that it finished
18 months ahead of schedule and within
budget.
It has the potential to reduce both the time
and cost required to complete a project.
PERT
This method uses statistical tools for
Implication of uncertainties on project time
Or
Stochastic Modeling of Network
A distinguishing feature of PERT is its
ability to deal with uncertainty in activity
completion times.
For each activity, the model usually
includes three time estimates:
1-6-23
4-7-16
4
2-5-10
1
2-5-12
3-7-20
3
Times
Optimistic time Shortest possible time in which an
activity can be completed under ideal conditions.
This is denoted by to
Pessimistic time - the longest time that an activity
might require. If everything went wrong and
abnormal situation prevails.however, it doesn'tt
include highly unusual catastrophies such as
earthquake, floods, fires. It is denoted by t p
Most likely time (Most Frequent-Mode)- the
completion time having the highest probability.
Normal condition prevails. It is denoted by t L
t0
tm
tp
2
1-6-23
4-7-16
4
1
2-5-12
3-7-20
3
2-5-10
11
14
10
10
12
11
10
12
13
11
10
10
10
11
14
13
14
11
16
10
13
10
12
12
11
13
16
11
15
15
15
17
14
12
12
10
13
11
11
14
10
10
12
11
10
12
13
11
10
10
10
11
14
13
14
11
16
10
13
10
12
12
11
13
16
11
15
15
15
14
12
12
10
17
17
13
11
No. of trenches
completed during
these days
Days of
Completion
No. of trenches
completed during
these days
No. of trenches
completed during
these days
Days of
Completion
12
13
14
15
10
16
11
17
Number of Trenches
To = 6
TL = 10
Number of Days
To = 17
to
tm
tp
16
23
For the following net work having four activities in series determine
the expected time. The optimistic, most likely and pessimistic times
are noted on the activities.
Find the total expected time : tE
6-7-8
7-8-12
5-11-13 4
3-4-7
Activity
to
tL
tp
tE
1-2
2-3
3-4
4-5
6
7
5
3
7
8
11
4
8
12
13
7
7
8.5
10.33
4.33
2-5-9
12
9-
5-7-9
11-14-17
6-11-17
12
86-
11
-1
420
15
791
4-6
5-6-9
2-4-7
10
Path A
Path B
Path C
Path D
1-2-5-8-10
1-2-5-7-10
1-3-7-10
1-4-6-9-10
Activity
Optimistic
time to
Most likely
time tL
Pessimistic
time tp
Expected
time tE
1-2
1-3
1-4
2-5
3-7
4-6
5-7
5-8
6-9
7-10
8-10
9-10
7
5
6
5
11
5
4
2
2
6
9
11
9
7
8
7
14
6
6
5
4
11
12
14
13
9
12
10
17
9
9
9
7
17
15
20
9.33
7.0
8.33
7.16
14.0
6.33
6.16
5.16
4.16
11.16
12.0
14.5
4-8
-
11
8
61
3-7-9
8-10-12
5812
14
8-10-12
5710
7-10-15
3-5-6
4
4-68
5
Critical Path
Path
Activity
tO
tL
tP
tE
tE
1-2
2-7
7-8
6
8
5
8
10
8
11
12
12
8.17
10.00
8.17
26.34
1-2
2-6
6-8
6
4
7
8
8
10
11
14
15
8.17
8.33
10.33
26.83
1-3
3-6
6-8
3
8
7
7
10
10
9
12
15
6.67
10.00
10.33
27.00
1-4
4-5
5-6
6-8
5
4
3
7
7
6
5
10
10
8
6
15
7.17
6.00
4.83
10.33
28.33
Normal Deviate
(x): Distance from
the mean
expressed in
terms of sigma
1. Normal Deviate = 0, it is
the expected time,
probability of completion
= 50 %
2. Normal Deviate = 1,
probability of completion
= 84 %.
3. Normal Deviate = -1,
probability of completion
= 16 %
Normal Deviate
(+)
Probability
(%)
Normal Deviate
(+)
Probability
(%)
0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
-0.6
-0.7
-0.8
-0.9
-1.0
-1.1
-1.2
-1.3
-1.4
-1.5
-1.6
-1.7
-1.8
-1.9
-2.0
-2.1
-2.2
-2.3
-2.4
-2.5
-2.6
-2.7
-2.8
-2.9
50.0
46.0
42.1
38.2
34.5
30.8
27.4
24.2
21.2
18.4
15.9
13.6
11.5
9.7
8.1
6.7
5.5
4.5
3.6
2.9
2.3
1.8
1.4
1.1
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.2
0
+0.1
+0.2
+0.3
+0.4
+0.5
+0.6
+0.7
+0.8
+0.9
+1.0
+1.1
+1.2
+1.3
+1.4
+1.5
+1.6
+1.7
+1.8
+1.9
+2.0
+2.1
+2.2
+2.3
+2.4
+2.5
+2.6
+2.7
+2.8
+2.9
50.0
54.0
57.9
51.8
65.5
69.2
72.6
75.8
78.8
81.6
84.1
86.4
88.5
90.3
91.9
93.3
94.5
95.5
96.4
97.1
97.7
98.2
98.6
98.9
99.2
99.4
99.5
99.7
99.7
99.8
Z = Normal Deviate
If Ts is the scheduled time of completion
& Te is the expected time of completion
Z = Ts-Te/sigma
Sigma = (Sum of variances along critical path)0.5
Variance = (tp-to/6)2
Problem:
Expected Project Length is 50 weeks
Variance 16
How many weeks required to complete the
project to complete with
95 % Probability
75 % probability
40 % Probability
57 weeks
53 weeks
49 weeks
18
9
6-
4-7
-1
4-10-22
4
581
16
7
4-
-8
2-5
10
4
9
11
3
SD= 4.69
Probability 85 %
Critical path 1-2-4-5, Te= 30
Description
Develop product specifications
Design manufacturing process
Source & purchase materials
Source & purchase tooling & equipment
Receive & install tooling & equipment
Receive materials
Pilot production run
Evaluate product design
Evaluate process performance
Write documentation report
Transition to manufacturing
Immediate Duration
Predecessor (weeks)
None
4
A
6
A
3
B
6
D
14
C
5
E&F
2
G
2
G
3
H&I
4
J
2
AON Diagram
Paths
ABDEGHJK
ABDEGIJK
ACFGHJK
ACFGIJK
Path duration
40
41
22
23
Calculate Slack
Calculating Slack
Activity
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
Late
Finish
4
10
25
16
30
30
32
35
35
39
41
Early
Finish
4
10
7
16
30
12
32
34
35
39
41
Slack
(weeks)
0
0
18
0
0
18
0
1
0
0
0
Description
Develop product specifications
Design manufacturing process
Source & purchase materials
Source & purchase tooling & equipment
Receive & install tooling & equipment
Receive materials
Pilot production run
Evaluate product design
Evaluate process performance
Write documentation report
Transition to manufacturing
Optimistic
time
2
3
2
4
12
2
2
2
2
2
2
Most likely
time
4
7
3
7
16
5
2
3
3
4
2
Pessimistic
time
6
10
5
9
20
8
2
4
5
6
2
Calculate Te
Activity
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
Optimistic
time
2
3
2
4
12
2
2
2
2
2
2
Most likely
time
4
7
3
7
16
5
2
3
3
4
2
Pessimistic
time
6
10
5
9
20
8
2
4
5
6
2
Expected
time
4
6.83
3.17
6.83
16
5
2
3
3.17
4
2
Expected duration
44.66
44.83
23.17
23.34
4.96
1.42
Path
Number
Activities on
Path
Path
Variance
(weeks)
z-value
Probability
of
Completion
A,B,D,E,G,I,J,K
4.96
1.4215
0.9222
Benefits of PERT
PERT is useful because it provides the following
information:
Expected project completion time.
Probability of completion before a specified date.
The critical path activities that directly impact the
completion time.
The activities that have slack time and that can lend
resources to critical path activities.
Limitations
The activity time estimates are somewhat subjective and
depend on judgement.
In cases where there is little experience in performing an
activity, the numbers may be only a guess.
Even if the activity times are well-estimated, PERT
assumes a beta distribution for these time estimates, but
the actual distribution may be different.
If other paths can become the critical path if their
associated activities are delayed, PERT consistently
underestimates the expected project completion time.
CPM -PERT
CPM
PERT