Basic Statistics

Introductory Workshop MSBAPM

John R Wilson
John.Wilson@business.uconn.edu
(Note that much of the material and definitions are from A First Course in Statistics, McClave and Sincion, 11 th
edition)

Conclusion of Session 1
Q&A
Session 2 Agenda

Continuous probability distribution

Sampling Distributions
Interval Estimates
Confidence Intervals
Z values, t test and p values
Introduction to hypothesis testing

Continuous Probability Distribution

(CPD)
What if the variables arent countable?
Variables that can assume ANY value in any of the
points in an interval are called continuous
Ex. The length in time, in minutes, that someone waits in a
hospital ER
Ex. The depth in feet for striking oil
We dont discretely measure these (Although we can later change
these to discrete measures)

CPD
The graph of the cpd is a smooth curve, typically bell
shaped if normally distributed
This curve, a function of x, is denoted by symbol f(x)
and is interchangeably called a probability density
function, frequency function or probability distribtution
The areas under the probability distribution (Area under
the curve or AUC) correspond to the p of x (See next
slide)

AUC
The are shaded is the probability that x is between 1 and
2.

Computing AUC
Computing AUC is somewhat complex for the everyday
user

However, a table was devised that

calculates what is called a z score
It is based on a normal distribution with a mean of 0 and
standard deviation of 1. (See next slide)
Note the probability that a value falls between a score
of -1/1, -2/2 and -3/3.
Remember the 68/95/99 rule?

Exercise One (TIP Draw out the

area that you are looking for)
Using the previous table, find the probability that a
standard normal variable falls between -1.33 and 1.33

Ex: One solution step one

Ex: One solution step 2

Note that the value for 1.33 is .4082
HOWEVERthat is the auc from 0 to 1.33. We also have
the same auc from 0 to -1.33
Therefore, we add .4082 to .4082 so the total probability
that our variable falls between -1.33 and 1.33 is .8164
Note that the 1.33 is in terms of standard deviations

Z scores
There is another type of z table that calculates the probability that a
variable is to the right or left of a value.
They are also based on the same AUC calcs, but represented a bit
differently (See Z score table in appendix)
Note that the values for 1/-1 are complements of each other
Quick exercise..calculate the probability that a value is either to the
left of negative one or to the right of positive one.
To the left of negative one is -.1587 and to the right of positive one is (1 - .
8413) or +.1587. Add these up and they total .3174. The complement of
that is .6826 (That 68% again).
So we can say that the there is a 68% probability that our value is between 1
and -1, or a 32% probability that it is in the tails

Exercise two
What is the probability that a standard normal variable
is greater than 1.64 (Do this using both tables)

Exercise two solutions

Using our AUC table, when looking up the value for
1.64, we get .4495. HOWEVER, we have to add the .5
to the left of the mean to get a total area of .9495. The
area we are interested in is in the tail, so 1-.9495 is .
0505.
Using our Z table in the appendix, our value for 1.64 is
shown as .9495 and, applying the same calculation, we
also get .0505.

Exercise Three
Find the probability that a standard normal variable
exceeds 1.96 IN ABSOLUTE VALUE (Draw the problem
out first)

So how do we calculate the z score

to look up?
The formula is relatively simple

Exercise Four
Assume that length of time x between charges of a cell
phone are normally distributed with a mean of 10 hours
and standard deviation of 1.5. Find the probability that
the cell phone will last between 8 and 12 hours between
charges.

Ex Four solution
First, we need to calculate the z score for 8 and for 12
Z(8) = 8-10/1.5 = -1.33
Z(12) = 12-10/1.5 = 1.33
Looking up our values, we get a total p of .8164 (.4082
+ .4082)
Therefore, the probability that it lasts from 8-12 hours is
about 81.64% (Refer to slide 11)

Exercise Five
Suppose a car manufacturer claims that on average, a
car gets 27 miles per gallon. Although no variability is
mentioned, you find out that the standard deviation is 3
miles per gallon.
1. If you were to buy this car, what is the p that you
would purchase one that gets less than 20 miles per
gallon
2. Suppose you bought one and it did in fact get less
than 20mpg. Should you conclude that your model is
incorrect?

Exercise Five solution

First, draw out your distribution plot.
Convert your variable to a z score
20-27/3 = -2.33

Calculate your probability

P(x<20) = P(z<-2.33) which is .0099 or approximately 1%

You are either unfortunate to get the 1 out of a 100 cars

that gets poor mileage or the model is not correct
(Mean mileage or std deviation)

Reversing the z tables

Suppose you are looking at college aps and will consider
only the top ten percent of test scores. What would be
the minimum test scores based on the distribution?
First, draw it out
We would be interested in the p that someone is in the
tail to the right of the mean. Further, they would only
be in the last 10% of the auc. Therefore, if we look up
the area close to .4 (.5 + .4 is .9that leaves .1 as the
tail) we would see that it roughly corresponds to a value
of 1.28 to 1.29. Therefore, scores that are at least 1.28
standard deviations higher than the mean would qualify.

Sampling Distributions
Remember yesterday that we discussed samples as a
method of inferring the statistics (or parameters) of a
population.
Population
Parameter
Mean

Variance
Variance
Standard
Standard Deviation
Deviation

^2
^2

Sample Statistic

s^2
s^2
s
s

A
A sample
sample statistic
statistic is
is a
a numerical
numerical descriptive
descriptive measure
measure of
of a
a sample.
sample.
We
will
often
use
this
information
to
infer
the
parameters
of
We will often use this information to infer the parameters of a
a
population
population

Sampling Distributions
However, two samples can yield VERY different results,
thus making VERY different inferences about the
population.
This illustrates an important point
Sample statistics are themselves random variables
Therefore, they must be judged and compared based on their
respective probability distributions
This assumes that the sampling experiments are repeated a VERY large
number of times

Sampling Distributions
An example:
Suppose that in Canada, the daily high temp recorded for ALL past months
of January has a mean of 10 degrees F and a standard deviation of 5. (Note
that all recorded measures would constitute the population in this case, but
that is not often the case)
Now suppose we randomly sample 25 observations, but we do this random
sample several times (with replacement). Sample one shows a mean of 9.8,
sample two a mean of 11.4, sample three a mean of 10.5, etc. If we plotted
these sample means, and if the means are a good estimator of , we would
expect the probability distribution of the sample means to cluster around 10.
This probability distribution is called a sampling distribution
In actual practice, we typically would use computer simulations to generate
the sampling distribution.

Properties of a sampling distribution

The
mean of the sampling distribution of will be approximately

.
The standard deviation of the sampling distribution of equals
the
Standard deviation of sampled population/square root of sample
size
Or of = /n
Note that this is the deviation of the sampling distribution values and is not
the same as the standard deviation of the sample itself
This standard deviation is often referred to as the standard error of the
mean

Central Limit Theorem

These
properties of sampling distributions lead us to one of the

most important theoretical results in statisticsthe Central Limit

Theorem.
The CLM states that:
If a random sample of n observations is selected from a population with
a normal distribution, the sampling distribution of will be normally
distributed
When n is sufficiently large, the sampling distribution of will be
approximately

How large is large enough? For most sampled populations, n30

is usually sufficient. For skewed distributions, this number needs
to be larger

Putting it all together (An example)

A battery mfg claims a mean battery life of 54 months with a std dev of 6
months. A consumer group buys 50 batteries to test this claim.
1. Assuming the claim is true, describe the sampling distribution of the mean lifetime
of the 50 batteries.
2. Assuming the claim is true, what is the probability that the groups sample has a
mean life of 52 or fewer months?

Even though we have no probability distribution for the sample, we can

apply the CLM to deduce the sample mean as being normally distributed.
Further, the sample mean should be 54 months. Finally the standard error
of the mean is 6/50 (claimed population std / square root of the sample
size) as .85
Now we need a z score which is 52-54/.85 = -2.35
This suggests that the p of being to the left of -2.35(Tail) is approx. .0094
We can follow up after many months of use and if the batteries tested do
have a VERY UNLIKELY mean life of less than 52 months, we would question
the manufacturers claims

Couple of other notes

Note that as n gets larger, the standard error of the
mean will get smaller. This makes intuitive sense, as
larger samples are better at estimating the population
parameters. This becomes important when considering
how large a sample should be collected or observed in
order to obtain a specified accuracy of estimation
Second, the CLM is useful because may natural
observations are normally distributed.

Exercise Six
A random sample of n=100 observations is selected
from a population with a mean of 30 and standard
deviation of 16
1.

Find the mean and standard deviation of

2.

Describe the shape of the sampling distribution of

3.

Find P( 28)

4.

Find P( 28.2)

5.

Find P( ) is between 28.5 and 31

Exercise six solution

A random sample of n=100 observations is selected
from a population with a mean of 30 and standard
deviation of 16
1.

Find the mean and standard deviation of

Mean is 30 (CLM) and Standard deviation is 1.6 (16/100)

2.

Describe the shape of the sampling distribution of - approx. normal

3.

Find P( 28) z = 28-30/1.6 = -1.25 Therefore, P= .8944 or 89.44%

4.

Find P( 28.2) z = 28.2-30/1.6 = -1.125 Therefore, P = approx. 13%

5.

Find P( ) is between 28.5 and 31

Z(28.5) 28.5-30/1.6 = -.9375 Z(31) = 31-30/1.6 = .0625

Therefore P = approx. 56% (Draw this out!!)

Break

Interval Estimation and Confidence

Intervals
As stated before, we seldom know the population
parameter. If we did, we wouldnt need inferential
statistics.
Therefore, our goal is to use samples to estimate the
mean (or proportions) of a population
The parameter we are interesting in estimating is called
the target parameter
It can be the mean, average, proportion, variance, etc.
With quantitative data, we are usually interested in the mean
or variance of the data. With qualitative data, it is usually a
measure of proportion that we are interested in.

Estimators
A single number that is calculated from a sample and
that estimates the target population parameter is called
a point estimate.
For example, we can use the sample mean to estimate the
population mean

In addition, we can measure the reliability of our

estimate by including an interval estimator. This is a
range of numbers that is likely to contain the target
parameter with a high degree of confidence. This is
typically referred to as a confidence interval

Confidence Interval example

Suppose we want to estimate the average stay of an inpatient. The target parameter then is . We would like
to do this with a CI of 95%
1.

To do this, we randomly sample 100 records and determine the sample

mean , which will represent a point estimator for

2.

According to the CLM, the sampling distribution of the sample mean is

approximately normal.

3.

According to our z table, a z score of either +/- 1.96 would give us an AUC of
.95, or a 95% probability that our value would be within this interval

4.

Using our formula then, 1.96/ n would give us our interval estimates
(Or range) whereby there is a 95% probability that the true population mean
lies within this range

5.

The true population mean could lie outside of this range, but that is

CI calculation
Lets
assume our sample of 100 patients has a mean stay (x bar)

of 4.5 days. Lets also assume that it is known that the standard
deviation of the length of stay is 4 days. Calculate the CI for
1.96/ n = 4.5 (1.96)(4/100) = 4.5 .78 = (3.72, 5.28)
Therefore, we are 95% confident that the average length of stay is
between 3.72 and 5.28.

NOTE: In this example, the population standard deviation was

knownhowever, that is NOT usually the case. However, recall
that our sample standard deviation is often a good estimate for
our population standard deviation. Lets see an example based
on this exercise, but with a small tweak

CI without population std deviation

From
our last exercise, we still are trying to get the average

stay. However, the population std dev is NOT known.

Our sample size is large, so we use the sample standard
deviation (s) to approximate our population standard deviation
()
Based on our sample, we get a mean ( )of 4.53 days with an s of
3.68 days. Calculate the CI at 95%
4.53 (1.96)(3.68 / 100) = 4.53 .72 = (3.81, 5.25)

What if we wanted to calculate this with 99% confidence?

Note that we can construct ANY interval we wish, but 95% is a
standard for a variety of reasons.

A note about
In the last example, can we be certain that the
population mean is actually within the CI? We cant be
CERTAIN, but we can be reasonably confident. What the
CI really means is that if we repeatedly sampled and
formed the the CIs each time, 95% of the time, the
intervals would contain .
Also, CI actually refers to the interval numbers, whereas
the confidence level, ie 95% is the the confidence
coefficient, or probabilitiy, expressed as a percentage.
However, in practice the term CI is typically used in
reference to the percentage, or AUC of the interval
estimates.

T-statistic
Remember that our previous CIs, which used the z scores, had
an a priori condition that the sample size usually be large (The
larger the better, but usually at least 30). This was
fundamental to the CLT.
What if the sample was small. This could result in a sample
standard deviation that is a poor approximation of the
population standard deviation.
Whereas the z score utilizes the population standard deviation
(or its estimate), the t-statistic uses the sample standard
deviation (without regard to sample size)
You may have heard the term Students T-statisticthis term has nothing to do with students. It was a pen name for
William Gossett, who discovered the T-distribution.

T-statistic
This is noted as such:

T-statistic
If the sampling is done from a normal distribution, the t statistic has
a sampling distribution very similar to the z statistic
However, the t statistic introduces more variability courtesy of the
sample standard deviation (Which may not accurately approximate
the population standard deviation)
The actual amount of variability depends on the sample size n
This is expressed in degrees of freedom which is (n-1)
Recall from the divisor of s^2 that we used n-1 as opposed to n
It is helpful to think of degrees of freedom as the amount of information
available for estimating the target parameter.
In general, the smaller the number of df, the more variable will be the
sampling distribution

T-statistic tables
As with Z scores, the T statistic is available in a lookup
table (See appendix)
If we wanted to look up a T score for t.025 with 4
degrees of Freedom, we would get 2.776
Note that .025 would be the right tail where our z score would
normally be 1.96

Note what happens if we increase the degrees of

freedomas the df gets higher, our number starts to
approach the z distribution

T-statistic example
A pharma company wants to estimate the mean
increase in bp of patients that are taking a new drug.
However, they only have a sample of 6 patients, whose
increases respectively, were (1.7, 3.0, .8, 3.4, 2.7, 2.1).
Use this information to construct a 95% CI for , the
average increase in bp.
1st, note that our sample is too small to assume CLM that x bar
is normally distributed. Instead, we must assume that our
OBSERVED variables are normally distributed in order for the
distribution of x bar to be normal
2nd, assume we dont know and cant approximate it
because of small sample size. Therefore, we must use the tdistribution with (n-1)df

T-statistic example
In
this case, n-1 is 5 (6-1) and the t-value for 95%CI is .025 (.025 in
each tail). Looking up the table, we get a t value of 2.571. To get the
interval, we can use our previous CI formula, but substitute our t for z
Remember our z based formula, at 95% 1.96/ n
X bar for sample is 2.283 with s = .95
Thus we get 2.571/ n = 2.283 (2.571)(.95/6) = 2.283 .997
= (1.286, 3.280)
This is our interval and we can be 95% confident that the mean bp
increase is between these two numbers (THIS STILL ASSUMES
NORMALITY)

Exercise seven
We are interested in the average number of characters
that can be printed before a printer head fails. Because
the failures are rare, or take a long time, we have little
dataonly a sample of 15. The # of characters (in
millions) before failure were (1.13, 1.55, 1.43, .92, 1.25,
1.36, 1.32, .85, 1.07, 1.48, 1.20, 1.33, 1.18, 1.22, 1.29)
Form a 99% CI for the mean # of characters printed
before failure.
What assumptions are required for this interval to be
valid

Exercise seven solution

First,
calculate the mean and std deviation of the sample

Mean is 1.23867, Std deviation .19316 (Round to 1.24, .19)

For 99%, we are looking at the tails of .005 (1- .99)/2.
Our df is (15-1) = 14
We lookup .005 with 14df = 2.977
Thus we get 2.977/ n = 1.24 (2.977)(.19/15) = (1.09, 1.39)
This means that we are 99% confident that the printhead has a
mean life of between 1.09 and 1.39 million characters
Since n is small, we must assume that the # of characters before
failure is random and normally distributed

CI for population proportions

So far, we have looked at the Cis for continuous distributions, but we can
apply similar techniques for proportions as well.
For example, suppose that we randomly poll 1000 ftes and ask if they like their jobs.
637 answer yeshow can we take that information and infer the true fraction of ALL
ftes that like their jobs?
We can estimate p (The probability that a fte is happy with their job) by calculating
p-hat, usually denoted as:
Thus p-hat = 637/1000 or 63.7%
However, how can we determine the reliability of that number? If we view each yes
as a success, the answer lies in the distribution of the average number of yes in n
number of samples. (NOTE that the n of success and the n of failure both should >
15)
In other words, what does the distribution of the number of yeses look like in n number of samples
of 1000 ftes? The CLM tells us that the relative frequency distribution of the sample mean for any
population is approximately normal for sufficiently large samples

Sampling distribution of
The mean of the sampling distribution of p hat is p;
stated another way, p-hat is an unbiased estimator of p
The standard deviation of the sampling distribution of phat is (pq/n) where q = 1-p.
For large samples, the sampling distribution of p-hat is
approximately normal

CI for p
P-hat z (p-hat * q-hat)/n
So to calculate the 95% CI for worker happiness, based
on our sample of 637 happy workers out of 1000
.637 (1.96)((.637)(.363)/1000) = .637 .030 =
(.607, .667)
Thus we can say we are 95% confident that the interval
between 60.7% to 66.7% contains the true percentage
off ALL ftes that are happy with their job.

Exercise Eight
A random poll shows that 157 out of 484 consumers
are optimistic about the state of the economy. Using
this information, and a 90%CI, what is the estimated
proportion of happy consumers in Florida.

Exercise Eight
A random poll shows that 157 out of 484 consumers
are optimistic about the state of the economy. Using
this information, and a 90%CI, what is the estimated
proportion of happy consumers in Florida.
P-hat = 157/484 = .324
Z score for .9 is 1.645 (We need to find the value of (1-.9)/2
which is .05
Our formula is:
.324 (1.645)((.324)(.676)/484) = .324 .035 = (.289, .359)
This means we are 90% confident that the proportion of people

Hypothesis Testing
As seen with our various z/t tests, we are often
determining if the value of a parameter is greater than,
less than or equal to some specified number. (See
exercise six)
This type of inference is called a test of a hypothesis
We utilize the rare-event concept to reach a decision
To do this, we form two hypothesis called the null
hypothesis and the alternative (or research) hypothesis

Hypothesis Testing
Null Hypothesis, denoted Ho, represents the hypothesis that will
be accepted unless the data provides convincing evidence that
it is false. This usually represents the status quo or some claim
about the population parameter that the researcher wants to
test
Alternative Hypothesis, denoted Ha or H1, represents the
hypothesis that will be accepted only if the data provide
convincing evidence of its truth. This usually represents the
values of a population parameter for which the researcher
wants to gather evidence to support.
A statistical hypothesis is a statement about the numerical value of a
population parameter

Hypothesis example
Suppose a city wants to buy some sewer pipes, but wants to make
sure they meet specifications of having an average breaking
strength of 2,400 pounds per foot.
In this example, we are less interested in the approximate mean of the
population , then we are in testing a hypothesis about its value.
Specifically, we want to decide whether the mean breaking strength of the
pipe exceeds 2,400 pounds per foot.

Our Ho is that the manufacturers pipe does NOT meet specs, or that:
2400

Our Ha is ALWAYS the complement to Ho

> 2400

Consider what this might look like within a normal distribution chart

Hypothesis example
This is where it gets tricky
We know from our z table that a standard deviation of 1.65
approximates the area where 95% of the auc is to the left and
the remaining 5% is in the tail. This 5% is our rejection region
If, in fact, the true mean of is 2400, there is only a 5% chance that
the sample mean would be more than 1.65 standard deviations above
2400.
If our null hypothes Ho were true, this is a rare-event. However, we
typically reject the rare event and, thus, we would reject the null
hypothesis.
By doing so, we conclude that the alternative hypothesis is likely true.

The 5% probability region is denoted by (alpha)

If we rejected the null hypothesis, but in fact it was true, this would be
termed a Type I error. The probability of the Type I error is (alpha)

Hypothesis example with number

So lets assume we sample 50 sections of pipe and find
that xbar is 2460 with std deviation of 200 (We can use
s to approximate because sample is large enough)
For our z score, we use our test statistic formula of
Substituting z for t
So for this example we have:
Z=2460-2400 / (200/50) = 60/28.28 = 2.12
Because 2.12 exceeds 1.65, it falls within the rejection
region, so we reject the null hypothesis

Hypothesis example with numbers

Lets assume our sample mean was actually 2430 instead of 2400.
Z= (2430 2400) / (200/50) = 30 / 28.28 = 1.06
This value is less than 1.65 standard deviations away and does NOT lie in the
rejection region. Therefore, we cannot reject the null hypothesis.
Even though the sample mean exceeds the 2400, it does not exceed it by
enough to provide convincing evidence that the population mean exceeds
2400.
If we accept the null hypothesis, but it is in fact false, we have made a Type II
error. The probability of committing a Type II error is denoted by (beta).
This probability is usually unknowable
Semantics often become involved here.accept Ho, or fail to reject Ho or insufficient
evidence to reject Ho

Tails
The previous example was a one-tail (or one-sided) test.
This is because we used an inequality.
If we are looking at equality, we would use a two tailed
test.
Which tail to use
Ho some value, use upper tail (One to the right) as rejection
region
Ho some value, use lower tail (one to the left) as rejection
region
Ho = some value, use both tails as rejection region

Rejection regions for common

values of
First, .05 is typically the rejection region of choice, so
= .05
Note on the two tail test, this is the region where p = .
025. Add up both tails, and you get .05.
Lower Tail

Upper Tail

Two tailed

Z < -1.645

Z > 1.645

z < -1.96 or z > 1.96

Example of two tailed test setup

A researcher is testing whether a drug changes
response times. She has injected 100 rats with a dose.
She knows that the response times without the
injections (Control group) is 1.2 seconds. She wants to
see if the drug changes the response time. Further,
because it is a drug, we are using a of .01 (Rather
than a traditional .05)
First, note that we are only looking to see if the time
changes..it can be in either direction.
Therefore:
Ho = 1.2 (Mean response time is 1.2 this is the status quo)
Ha 1.2 (Mean response time is not 1.2 ..could be more or less)

Example of two tailed test setup

Ho = 1.2 (Mean response time is 1.2 this is the status quo)
Ha 1.2 (Mean response time is not 1.2 ..could be more or less)
= .01
This is two tailed, so our rejection regions are where are z scores
translate to .005 (.01 / 2)
The z score for .005 is -2.575 (For the lower tail) and +2.575 for
the upper tail.
Note that the test is set up before the sampling is done. Because
we have set our p so low (.01), we can confidently conclude that
should we reject the null hypothesis that the response time does
truly differ, thus the drug has an effect.

Exercise nine
Use the setup from the previous rats case
Sample of 100 rats gave us x bar of 1.05 and s of .5.
Determine if we reject or fail to reject Ho

Exercise nine solution

Ho = 1.2 (Mean response time is 1.2 this is the status quo)
Ha 1.2 (Mean response time is not 1.2 ..could be more or less)
= .01
This is two tailed, so our rejection regions are where are z scores
translate to .005 (.01 / 2)
The z score for .005 is -2.575 (For the lower tail) and +2.575 for
the upper tail.
Z = (1.05 1.2) / (.5/100) = -.15/.05 = -3, which DOES fall into
the rejection region. Therefore, we reject Ho. In fact, it would
appear that the drug causes a response time that is less that 1.2
seconds (quicker response)

Exercise nine
Assume that we sample 100,000 rats and get a mean of
1.1995 with s of .05. Calculate our z score
z-= (1.1995 1.2) / (.05/100000) = -3.16
Therefore, we would reject our Ho. However, in this
case, the researcher may decide that even though it is
statistically significant, it may not be practically
significant as 1.1995 and 1.2 are virtually identical.

P-values (Observed significance

value)
In our tail tests (regions of rejection) we simply rejected
the null hypothesis if our z score fell in the rejection
region.
Recall from slide 55 that our z score was 2.12, which
exceeded our reject region which began at z = 1.65
While this enables us to reject the null hypothesis, it
doesnt indicate the extent to which a test statistic
disagrees with the null hypothesis.
However, we can calculate this by using our test
statistic, in this case 2.12.

P-values
Recall that our z value was 2.12, which was in the
rejection region. If we look up the auc for 2.12 it is .
9830. Therefore, our p value would be .017.
What this means is that if the value of were actually
2400, as stated in our null hypothesis, there is only a
probability of 1.7% that the observed value of z would
be 2.12 or greater.
Most experiments require a P value of at least .05 or
lowerthe lower, the better.

Comparing population means

Earlier, we were dealing with single sample tests. But
what if we want to determine if the means for two
populations are the same?
For example, we may want to compare the life expectancy
between inner-city and suburban residents.

We can modify our single sample hypothesis testing to

make inferences about two or more population means
(or proportions).
Assuming n>30 in all compared samples, we would
utilize our traditional z scores, but we can use t-testing
for small samples. Most software will do this
automatically. For our purposes, we will just focus on

Determining the target parameter

Parameter(s)

Key words/phrases

Data type

# of samples

1 - 2

Difference between
means

Quant

2 independent
samples

Mean of paired
differences

Quant

1 paired sample

1, 2, 3. k

Compare multiple means

Quant

K independent
samples

Comparing two population means:

Independent sampling
Lets assume two groups on two different diet plans.
100 are placed into a low fat diet and a second group of
100 eat approximately the same caloric amount of food,
but not low in fat. We want to measure the difference in
weight loss for the two diets.
Let 1 be the mean of weight loss for low-fat group
Let 2 be the mean of weight loss for the other group.

We dont simply take the difference in meansWhy?

So we use a modified confidence interval to determine
the difference in means

Formula for comparing two

populations sample means

*Alternatively, t could be z in
large sample

Diet example

We have recorded the weight loss from both groups

X1 = 9.31, X2 = 7.40, 95%CI means z (t) = 1.96,
s1=4.67, s2=4.04
Therefore:
(9.31 7.40 ) 1.96 ((4.67)^2 / 100 +
(4.04)^2/100) =
1.91 (1.96)(.62) = 1.91 1.22 = (.69. 3.13)
Therefore, we are highly confident (at 95%) that the
mean weight loss for the low-fat diet (x1) is between .
69 and 3.13 pounds more than the mean weight loss

Comparing Population Proportions

The formula for comparing proportions is similar as for
comparing means, but a couple of small differences

Instead of xbar, we are using p hat. Also, instead of our s measure of

standard deviation, we are using p hat times (1 p hat) or pq
See slide 48 for a refresher on p hat confidence intervals

Comparing Proportions - example

1000 registered voters (randomly selected) from both the NE and
the SE were asked whether they favor a particular candidate. In
the NE, 546 responded yes and in the SE 475 responded yes. To
judge the reliability of this .071 difference, we want to know the
95%CI interval for the difference in proportions.
(546 475) (1.96)((.546)(.454)/1000 + (.475)(.525)/1000 =
.071 .044.
Thus, we are 95% confident that the interval of .027 to .115 contains the
difference between p1 and p2 (NE and SE). Stated another way, we
believe there are between 2.7 and 11.5% more registered voters in the NE
that favor the candidate.

Appendix

Greek Symbols
Website with statistical symbols
http://www.rapidtables.com/math/symbols/Statistical_Sy
mbols.htm
Greek letters

Z score table

T-table