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Statistics 2
for Edexcel
Binomial distributions
Binomial distributions
Contents
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of 58
58
Special distributions
Many real-life situations can be modelled using statistical
distributions. Examples of the types of problem that can be
addressed using these distributions include:
In a board game, players needs a six before they can start.
What is the probability that they havent started after 5 tries?
What proportion of the adult population have an IQ above
120?
The number of accidents on a stretch of motorway averages
1 every 2 days. How likely is it that there will be no accidents
in a week?
12% of people are left-handed. What is the probability that a
class of 30 people will have more than 6 left-handed people?
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Binomial distribution
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Binomial distribution
Introductory example:
A spinner is divided into four equal sized
sections marked 1, 2, 3, 4.
If the spinner is spun 6 times, how likely
is it to land on 1 on four occasions?
Most calculators
One possible sequence would be 1 1 1 1 1 1.
have an nCr
6!
6
C4
The number of possible sequences is
button
4 !2 !
(i.e. the number of ways of arranging 6 items, where 4 are of
one kind and 2 are of a different kind).
Binomial distribution
A binomial distribution arises when the following
conditions are met:
an experiment is repeated a fixed number (n) of times
(i.e., there is a fixed number of trials);
the outcomes from the trials are independent of one another;
each trial has two possible outcomes (referred to as
success and failure);
the probability of a success (p) is constant.
If the above conditions are satisfied and X is the random
variable for the number of successes, then X has a
binomial distribution. We write: X ~ B(n , p).
n and p are called
parameters.
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Binomial distribution
Which of these situations might reasonably be modelled
by a binomial distribution?
1 Joan takes a multiple choice examination
Binomial
consisting of 40 questions. X is the number of
questions answered correctly if she chooses
each answer completely at random.
2
Binomial
Binomial distribution
Which of these situations might reasonably be
modelled by a binomial distribution?
1 Jon throws a dice repeatedly until he obtains
Not
a six. X is the number of throws he needs
binomial
before a six arises.
The number of trials is not fixed
2 Judy counts the number of silver cars
Not
that pass her along a busy stretch of road.
binomial
X is the number of silver cars that pass in
a minute.
The number of trials is not fixed
3 Josh is a mid-wife. He delivers 10 babies.
X is the number of babies that are girls.
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Binomial
Binomial distribution
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Binomial distribution
If X ~ B(n , p), then
P( X x) nC x p x q n x
where q = 1 p.
Example: X ~ B(12, 0.4).
Find
a) P(X = 3)
b) P(X > 1).
Number
Probability
Probability
of
possible
ofof
x nx
sequences
successes
failures
12
3
9
P
(
X
3
)
0
.
4
0
.
6
0.142
a)
3
to 3 s.f.
Binomial distribution
Example: The probability that a baby is born a boy is 0.51.
A mid-wife delivers 10 babies. Find:
a) the probability that exactly 4 are male;
b) the probability that at least 8 are male.
10
4
6
a) P( X 4) C4 0.51 0.49 0.197
b) P( X 8) P( X 8) P( X 9) P( X 10)
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Contents
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E[X] is an unbiased
estimator of the mean.
Example:
If X ~ B[16, 0.25], then
E[X] = 16 0.25 = 4
and
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so, np = 8
Var[X] = npq
0
.
4
0
.
6
0.0746
So, P(X = 5) =
5
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Contents
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P(X x)
0.0824
0.3294
0.6471
P(X 5) = 0.9962
0.8740
0.9712
0.9962
0.9998
1.0000
P(X x)
0.0032
0.0243
0.0913
0.2252
0.4148
0.6172
0.7858
P(X x)
0.0281
0.1407
0.3518
0.5982
0.7983
0.9184
0.9734
Contents
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Introduction
We are sometimes interested in the number of times an
event occurs in a period of space or time:
1) Sam counts the number of cars travelling past her on a
quiet country road. X represents the number of cars passing
her in 15 minutes.
2) Xiu uses a Geiger counter to record the number of particles
emitted by a radioactive substance. X is the number of
emissions in one minute.
3) Scott counts the number of people leaving a pub. X is the
number of people leaving in a 5 minute interval.
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Introduction
4) Selina is taking samples of sea water. X is the number of a
particular kind of organism that she finds in a 1 ml sample
of water.
5) Ankur has produced a first draft of a novel. X is the number
of typing mistakes made on a page.
6) Steve records the number of accidents that occur on a
stretch of motorway. X is the number of accidents that occur
in a day.
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Could be Poisson
Poisson
Not Poisson
Could be Poisson
Could be Poisson
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Not Poisson
Calculating probabilities
If X ~ Po(), then
e x
P( X = x ) =
x!
for x = 0, 1, 2, 3,
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Calculating probabilities
X ~ Po(0.85). Find P(X > 2).
P(X > 2) = 1 P(X = 0) P(X = 1) P(X = 2).
e 0.85 0.850
P( X = 0) =
= 0.4274
0!
e0.85 0.851
= 0.3633
P(X = 1) =
1!
e0.85 0.852
P( X = 2) =
= 0.1544
2!
Calculating probabilities
On average a call centre receives 1.75 phone calls per
minute.
a) Assuming a Poisson distribution, find the probability that the
number of phone calls received in a randomly chosen
minute is:
(i) exactly 4;
(ii) no more than 2.
b) Find the probability that 6 phone calls are received in a 4
minute period.
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Calculating probabilities
a) Let X = number of phone calls received in 1 minute.
Then X ~ Po(1.75).
e1.75 1.754
P( X = 4) =
= 0.0679 (3 s.f.)
4!
P(X 2) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2)
e1.75 1.750
P ( X 0)
= 0.1738
0!
e1.75 1.751
P( X 1)
= 0.3041
1!
e 1.75 1.752
P( X 2)
= 0.2661
2!
Calculating probabilities
b) Let Y = number of phone calls received in 4 minutes.
The number of calls in 4 minutes will be on average
1.75 4 = 7
So, Y ~ Po(7).
Therefore,
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e 7 76
= 0.149 (3 s.f.)
P(Y 6)
6!
Examination-style question
Examination-style question
A gardener has calculated that weeds in his garden occur at a
mean rate of 3.25 per square metre. Assuming that a Poisson
distribution is appropriate:
a) Find the probability that there will be fewer than 4 weeds
in an area of 2 m2.
b) State what needs to be assumed about the distribution
of weeds in order for the Poisson distribution to be fully
justified.
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Examination-style question
Let X = number of weeds in an area of 2 m2.
a) X = 3.25 2 = 6.5, so X ~ Po(6.5).
P(X < 4) = P(X = 0, 1, 2, 3)
e 6.5 6.50 e6.5 6.51 e 6.5 6.52 e6.5 6.53
=
0!
1!
2!
3!
= 0.00150 + 0.00977 + 0.03176 + 0.06881
= 0.112 (3 s.f.)
b) For a Poisson distribution to be justified, the weeds
would need to occur randomly and at a constant rate.
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Poisson tables
Binomial distributions
Contents
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Poisson tables
Tables of probabilities exist for many Poisson distributions.
The tables are cumulative, that is they give P(X x).
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
x=0
0.6065
0.3679
0.2231
0.1353
0.0821
x=1
0.9098
0.7358
0.5578
0.4060
0.2873
x=2
0.9856
0.9197
0.8088
0.6767
0.5438
x=3
0.9982
0.9810
0.9344
0.8571
0.7576
x=4
0.9998
0.9963
0.9814
0.9473
0.8912
x=5
1.0000
0.9994
0.9955
0.9834
0.9580
x=6
1.0000
0.9999
0.9991
0.9955
0.9858
Poisson tables
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
x=0
0.6065
0.3679
0.2231
0.1353
0.0821
x=1
0.9098
0.7358
0.5578
0.4060
0.2873
x=2
0.9856
0.9197
0.8088
0.6767
0.5438
x=3
0.9982
0.9810
0.9344
0.8571
0.7576
x=4
0.9998
0.9963
0.9814
0.9473
0.8912
x=5
1.0000
0.9994
0.9955
0.9834
0.9580
x=6
1.0000
0.9999
0.9991
0.9955
0.9858
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Poisson tables
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
x=0
0.6065
0.3679
0.2231
0.1353
0.0821
x=1
0.9098
0.7358
0.5578
0.4060
0.2873
x=2
0.9856
0.9197
0.8088
0.6767
0.5438
x=3
0.9982
0.9810
0.9344
0.8571
0.7576
x=4
0.9998
0.9963
0.9814
0.9473
0.8912
x=5
1.0000
0.9994
0.9955
0.9834
0.9580
x=6
1.0000
0.9999
0.9991
0.9955
0.9858
Examination-style question
Examination-style question
A corner shop has on average 18 customers per hour.
Assume that a Poisson distribution is appropriate.
a) Calculate the probability that
i) more than 10 customers will arrive in a 15 minute interval;
ii) exactly 2 customers will arrive in a 1 minute interval.
b) Find the time interval such that the probability of no
customers arriving during that interval is 0.2.
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Examination-style question
a) Let X1 be the random variable for the number of customers
arriving in a 15 minute interval.
X1 ~ Po(18 4), so X1 ~ Po(4.5).
P(X1 > 10) = 1 P(X1 10)
= 1 0.9933 (using tables)
= 0.0067
Let X2 be the random variable for the number of customers
arriving in a 1 minute interval.
X2 ~ Po(18 60), so X2 ~ Po(0.3).
P(X2 = 2) = P(X2 2) P(X2 1)
= 0.9964 0.9631 (from tables)
= 0.0333
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Examination-style question
b) Let Y be the number of customers arriving in an interval of
length t minutes.
Then Y ~ Po(18t 60), so Y ~ Po(0.3t).
From the question, P(Y = 0) = 0.2
We can find P(Y = 0) in terms of t :
e0.3t (0.3t )0
0.3t
=
e
P(Y = 0) =
0!
e 0.3t = 0.2
0.3t = ln0.2
ln0.2
t=
= 5.36 minutes
0.3
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Contents
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5 or more
Frequency, f
21
19
10
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1
Variance =
n
134 60
2
x f x
= 1.245 (4 s.f.)
56 56
2
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5 or more
Frequency, f
21
19
10
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= 0.3427 (4 s.f.)
r!
0!
e 1.0711.0711
P(X = 1) =
= 0.3670 (4 s.f.)
1!
e 1.0711.0712
P(X = 2) =
0.1965 (4 s.f.) etc
2!
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P(X = x)
0.3427
0.3670
0.1965
0.0702
0.0188
5 or more
0.0048
Expected frequencies
P(X x) is found by
subtracting the sum of the
other probabilities from 1.
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P(X = x)
Expected frequencies
0.3427
19.2
0.3670
20.6
0.1965
11.0
0.0702
3.9
0.0188
1.1
5 or more
0.0048
0.3
Expected frequencies
21
19.2
19
20.6
10
11.0
3.9
1.1
5 or more
0.3
Contents
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Note: It is sometimes
convenient to
approximate a
binomial with a
Poisson distribution
because it is slightly
easier to calculate
probabilities using a
Poisson distribution.
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3
a) P(X = 0) =
= 0.0498 (3 s.f.)
0!
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Examination-style question
Examination-style question:
The probability that a directory enquiry service gives out the
correct phone number has been estimated to be 0.975.
a) Sabah requires 10 phone numbers. Find the probability
that the service gives her at least 9 correct numbers.
b) A large organisation requests 140 phone numbers. Find
the probability that more than 135 of them are given out
correctly.
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Examination-style question
a) Let X be the random variable for the number of correct
phone numbers given to Sabah.
Then X ~ B(10, 0.975).
P(X 9) = P(X = 9) + P(X = 10).
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Examination-style question
b) The probability of being given the correct phone number
(0.975) is not small.
However, the probability of receiving an incorrect phone
number (0.025) is small.
Therefore we consider Y, the number of incorrect numbers
received.
The exact distribution of Y is B(140, 0.025).
This can be approximated to Po(3.5).
140 0.025