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Submitted by:
Pasaoa, Almarie Graceilla C.
Viernes, Aurea Noreen
Orinday, Patrick
Clacio, Joyce Elaine
References
http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probabil
ity.html
http://www.slideshare.net/gsriharsha/fun
damentals-probability-080720091804620
SPACE
A set of possible outcomes of a random
experiment
The symbol S will be used to denote the
sample space
EXAMPLE :
EXAMPLE:
Tossing a die
EXAMPLE:
Tossing a coin twice.
The sample is S= {HH, HT, TH, TT}.
E= {HH, HT} is an event, which can be
described in words as the first toss results
in a Heads
EXAMPLE:
REFERENCES:
http://cims.nyu.edu/~kiryl/Probability/Chap
ter%202.pdf
http://www.math.uiuc.edu/~kkirkpat/Sample
Space.pdf
http://www.mathgoodies.com/lessons/vol6/s
ample_spaces.html
5.3 AXIOMS
OF
PROBABILITY
REFERENCES
http://www.math.utah.edu/~lzhang/teaching/3070summer2008/
DailyUpdates/jun10/sec2_2.pdf
http://www.slideshare.net/mathscontent/probability-and-itsaxioms-3209538
Examples
Experiment 1:
Probabilities:
1
P(2)
1
P(5)
Experiment 1:
P(2 or 5)
P(2)
1
=
2
=
P(5)
1
+
Examples
Experiment 2:
P(intoxicated
having a car accident
+
P(accident)
-
and
P(intoxicated or = P(intoxicated)
while intoxicated is 0.15.
accident)
accident)
What is the probability of
a person driving while
intoxicated or having a
car accident?
Probabilities:=
0.32
+
0.09
-
0.15
=
0.26
Examples
2
P(A')
= =
P(A)
4/6
=
=
2/3
P(A) + P(A') =
1/3
2/3
3/3
= 1
Examples
Which is written:
P(AB) = 0
P(AB) = 20% + 15% = 35%
Examples
Examples
Example: 16 people study French,
21 study Spanish and there are 30
altogether. Work out the
probabilities!
This is definitely a case
ofnotMutually Exclusive (you can
study French AND Spanish).
Let's saybis how many study both
languages:
-people studying French Only must
be16-b
-people studying Spanish Only must
be21-b
And we get:
Activities
1. A number is chosen at random from the set of two-digit numbers
from 10 to 99 inclusive.
What is the probability the number contains at least one digit 2?
2. There are 30 children in a class and they all have at least one cat or
dog.
14 children have a cat, 19 children have a dog.
What is the probability that a child chosen at random from the class
has both a cat and a dog?
3. A fair die is thrown. What is the probability that the score is not a
factor of 6?
4. A spinner is made from a piece of card in the shape of a regular
pentagon with a toothpick pushed through the center. When the
spinner is spun and it lands on an edge, each of the numbers from 1
to 5 is equally likely.
If the spinner is spun twice, what is the probability the two scores are
different?
5. A day of the week is chosen at random. What is the probability of
choosing a Monday or Tuesday?
6. In a pet store, there are 6 puppies, 9 kittens, 4 gerbils and 7
parakeets. If a pet is chosen at random, what is the probability of
Interesting Trivia
References
http://www.mathgoodies.com/lessons/vol6/addition_rules.html
https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability-complement.html
http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability-events-mutuallyexclusive.html
5.5 Conditional
Probability
and Independent
Events
References:
http://www.regentsprep.or
g/regents/math/algebra/AP
R3/Lconditional
http://www.cut-theknot.org/Curriculum/Proba
bility/ConditionalProbabilit
y
https://www.mathsisfun.co
m/data/probability-eventsconditional
http://www.wyzant.com/re
sources/lessons/math/stati
stics_and_probability/prob
ability/further_concepts_in
_probability
EXAMPL
E #1:
EXAMPLE
#2
Answer:
It helps to re-word the question into:
Find the probability that the student is
taking math, given that the student is a
senior.
B = the student is taking
math
n(A) = the student is a senior =
250.
n(A and B) = the student is a senior
and is taking math = 40.
SOLUTION:
EXAMPLE
#3
LET'S
PRACTICE!
ANSWERS
:
2. P(ace queen) =
P(ace|queen) is found using the multiplication
rule. Since the problem states that there is no
replacement we can find
P(ace|queen) as (4/52)(4/51) = 4/663
We know that
P(queen) = 4/52
Substituting values into the conditional
probability formula we get
5.6 Bayes
Theorem
Bayesian Reasoning
ASSUMPTIONS
1% of women aged forty who participate in a routine
screening have breast cancer
80% of women with breast cancer will get positive
tests
9.6% of women without breast cancer will also get
positive tests
EVIDENCE
A woman in this age group had a positive test in a
routine screening
PROBLEM
Whats the probability that she has breast cancer?
Bayesian Reasoning
ASSUMPTIONS
10 out of 1000 women aged forty who participate in a
routine screening have breast cancer
800 out of 1000 of women with breast cancer will get
positive tests
95 out of 1000 women without breast cancer will also
get positive tests
PROBLEM
If 1000 women in this age group undergo a routine
screening, about what fraction of women with positive
tests will actually have breast cancer?
Bayesian Reasoning
ASSUMPTIONS
100 out of 10,000 women aged forty who participate
in a routine screening have breast cancer
80 of every 100 women with breast cancer will get
positive tests
950 out of 9,900 women without breast cancer will
also get positive tests
PROBLEM
If 10,000 women in this age group undergo a routine
screening, about what fraction of women with positive
tests will actually have breast cancer?
Bayesian Reasoning
Before the screening:
100 women with breast cancer
9,900 women without breast cancer
After the screening:
A = 80 women with breast cancer and positive test
B = 20 women with breast cancer and negative test
C = 950 women without breast cancer and positive test
D = 8,950 women without breast cancer and negative test
Proportion of cancer patients with positive results, within
the group of ALL patients with positive results:
A/(A+C) = 80/(80+950) = 80/1030 = 0.078 = 7.8%
Compact Formulation
C = cancer present, T = positive test
p(A|B) = probability of A, given B, ~ = not
PRIOR PROBABILITY
p(C) = 1%
PRIORS
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
p(T|C) = 80%
p(T|~C) = 9.6%
p(C|T) = ?
Bayesian Reasoning
Before the screening:
100 women with breast cancer
9,900 women without breast cancer
After the screening:
A = 80 women with breast cancer and positive test
B = 20 women with breast cancer and negative test
C = 950 women without breast cancer and positive test
D = 8,950 women without breast cancer and negative test
Proportion of cancer patients with positive results, within
the group of ALL patients with positive results:
A/(A+C) = 80/(80+950) = 80/1030 = 0.078 = 7.8%
Bayesian Reasoning
Prior Probabilities:
Conditional Probabilities:
A = 80/10,000 = (80/100)*(1/100) = p(T|C)*p(C) = 0.008
B = 20/10,000 = (20/100)*(1/100) = p(~T|C)*p(C) = 0.002
C = 950/10,000 = (9.6/100)*(99/100) = p(T|~C)*p(~C) = 0.095
D = 8,950/10,000 = (90.4/100)*(99/100) = p(~T|~C) *p(~C) = 0.895
p(T|C)*p(C)
p(C|T) = ______________________
P(T|C)*p(C) + p(T|~C)*p(~C)
A + C
Comments
Common mistake: to ignore the prior probability
The conditional probability slides the revised
probability in its direction but doesnt replace the
prior probability
A NATURAL FREQUENCIES presentation is one in
which the information about the prior probability is
embedded in the conditional probabilities (the
proportion of people using Bayesian reasoning rises to
around half).
Test sensitivity issue (or: if two conditional
probabilities are equal, the revised probability equals
the prior probability)
Where do the priors come from?
ACTIVITIES
Suppose a drug test is 99%sensitiveand 99%
specific. That is, the test will produce 99% true
positive results for drug users and 99% true
negative results for non-drug users. Suppose that
0.5% of people are users of the drug. If a
randomly selected individual tests positive, what
is theprobabilityhe or she is a user?
Answer
=
0.99 x 0.005
0.99 x 0.005 + 0.01 x 0.995
References
http://ftp.isds.duke.edu/WorkingPapers/97-21.ps
http://www.pnl.gov/bayesian/Berry/
o a powerpoint presentation by Berry
http://yudkowsky.net/bayes/bayes.html
http://www.stat.ucla.edu/history/essay.pdf
o Bayes original essay
http://www.sportsci.org/resource/stats/
5.7 CONTINGENCY
TABLES
OVERVIEW
HYPOTHESIS OF INDEPENDENCE
H0: no association
i.e. row and column variable are independent,
H1: an association,
i.e. row and column variable are not independent
Implies
Observed - Expected] /Square root[Expected]
is standard normal
Implies
and Observed is a Poisson RV
MEASURES OF STRENGTH:
CATEGORICAL VARIABLES
Phi 2x2
Cramer's V for rxc
Pearson's Contingency Coefficient
Tschuprow's T
MEASURES OF
STRENGTH: ORDINAL
VARIABLES
r
r
r
r
=
=
=
=
.20
.90
.90
.20
p-value
p-value
p-value
p-value
<
<
>
>
.05
.05
.05
.05
CONCEPTS
Predictive associations must be both
significant and strong
In a particular application, an association may
be important even if it is not predictive (I.e.
strong)
MORE CONCEPTS
Highly significant , weak associations result from
large samples
Insignificant strong associations result from
small samples - they may prove to be either
predictive or weak with larger samples
EXAMPLES
Heart attack Outcomes by Anticoagulant
Treatment
Admission Decisions by Gender
SUMMARY
Is there an association?
Investigate with Chi square p-value