It cover the basic concept of probability with some exercise and solutions.

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It cover the basic concept of probability with some exercise and solutions.

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190,000 people with deep analytical skills to fill

the demand of jobs in the U.S. by 2018

grow its analytics business

media, sports, finance, government, etc

Why probability?

What is statistics?

The science of using data to build models that lead

to better decisions that add value to individuals,

to companies, to institutions.

Basic probability

Objectives

Be able to define probability

Be able to define sample space, sample points and evnet

Be able to determine the subsets of sample space

Be able to calculate probability of different events

something is to happen.

There

Whats the probability of the coin landing on Heads?

How many outcomes are there?

Whats the probability of rolling a1?

Whats the probability of rolling a 1 or 6?

Whats the probability of rolling an even number?

Important notes

The probability of an event can only be between 0 and 1

(and can also be written as a percentage)

Probability does not tell us exactly what will happen, it

is just a guide

Example: toss a coin 100 times, how many Heads will

come up?

Probability says that heads have achance, so we

canexpect 50 Heads.

Butwhen we actually try it we might get 48 heads, or

55 heads ... or anything really, but in most cases it will

be a number near 50.

Important notes

The probability of an event can only be between 0 and 1

(and can also be written as a percentage)

The probability of event A is often written as P(A)

If P(A) > P(B) then event A has a higher chance of

occurring than event B

If P(A) = P(B) then events A and B are equally likely to

occur

Experiment or Trial

An action where the result is uncertain.

Sample Space

All the possible outcomes of an experiment

Sample Point

Just one of the possible outcomes

Event

A single result of an experiment

all possible

outcomes.

A Sample Point is

just one possible

outcome.

And an Event can be

oneor moreof the

possible outcomes.

Determination of

probability

You are given two dice to roll. One is black with six sides;

the other is white with four sides.

For a given roll, what is the probability you roll the

same number on each die?

For a given roll, what is the probability that the

values of the dice add to 11?

For a given roll, what is the probability the black

die displays 5 and the white die displays 3?

For a given roll, what is the probability that the

black die displays an even number and the white

die displays 3?

For a given roll, what is the probability that the

values of the dice add to 3 or less?

Example 1

this game, each of the two players chooses rock, paper,

or scissors. Both players reveal their choice at the same

time, and the winner is determined based on the

choices. Rock beats scissors by smashing it, scissors

beats paper by cutting it, and paper beats rock by

covering it. If both players choose the same object, it is

a tie. All the possible outcomes of the game are listed

below.

the outcomes where there

is not a tie.

The subset consists of all

the outcomes where your

friend does not win.

The subset consists of all

the outcomes where you

win or there is a tie.

The subset consists of all

the outcomes where your

friend wins or there is a

tie.

Your

Choice

Outcome

1

Outcome

2

Outcome

3

Outcome

4

Outcome

5

Outcome

Rock

Your

friends

choice

Rock

Rock

Paper

Rock

Scissors

Paper

Rock

Paper

Paper

Paper

Scissors

the outcomes where there

is not a tie.

The subset consists of

all the outcomes where

your friend does not

win.

The subset consists of all

the outcomes where you

win or there is a tie.

The subset consists of all

the outcomes where your

friend wins or there is a

tie.

Your

Choice

Outcome

1

Outcome

2

Outcome

3

Outcome

4

Outcome

5

Outcome

Rock

Your

friends

choice

Rock

Rock

Paper

Rock

Scissors

Paper

Rock

Paper

Paper

Paper

Scissors

Example 2

You and your friend are playing a game where you flip a

coin and roll a fair four-sided die. You win if the coin is

heads and the die lands on an odd number. Your friend

wins if the coin is tails and the die lands on an even

number. You tie if the coin is heads and the die is even

or if the coin is tails and the die is odd. All the possible

outcomes of the game are listed below.

the outcomes where

either you win or there is

a tie

The subset consists of all

the outcomes where your

friend does not lose.

The subset consists of all

the outcomes where your

friend does not win.

The subset consists of all

the outcomes where there

is a tie.

Your

Choice

Outcome

1

Outcome

2

Outcome

3

Outcome

4

Outcome

5

Outcome

Heads

Your

friends

choice

1

Heads

Heads

Heads

Tails

Tails

all the outcomes where

either you win or there

is a tie

The subset consists of all

the outcomes where your

friend does not lose.

The subset consists of

all the outcomes where

your friend does not

win.

The subset consists of all

the outcomes where there

is a tie.

Your

Choice

Outcome

1

Outcome

2

Outcome

3

Outcome

4

Outcome

5

Outcome

Heads

Your

friends

choice

1

Heads

Heads

Heads

Tails

Tails

Example 3

You and your friend are playing a game where you flip a

coin and roll a fair four-sided die. You win if the coin is

heads and the die lands on an odd number. Your friend

wins if the coin is tails and the die lands on an even

number. You tie if the coin is heads and the die is even

or if the coin is tails and the die is odd. All the possible

outcomes of the game are listed below.

the outcomes where your

friend wins.

The subset consists of all

the outcomes where you

win or lose.

The subset consists of all

the outcomes where you

tie.

The subset consists of all

the outcomes where you

win.

Your

Choice

Outcome

1

Outcome

2

Outcome

3

Outcome

4

Outcome

5

Outcome

Heads

Your

friends

choice

1

Heads

Heads

Heads

Tails

Tails

the outcomes where your

friend wins.

The subset consists of all

the outcomes where you

win or lose.

The subset consists of all

the outcomes where you

tie.

The subset consists of all

the outcomes where you

win.

Your

Choice

Outcome

1

Outcome

2

Outcome

3

Outcome

4

Outcome

5

Outcome

Heads

Your

friends

choice

1

Heads

Heads

Heads

Tails

Tails

Example 4

Joe and Maxine are playing a game where they flip a fair

coin four times and try to predict the outcomes. Joe

thinks that the probability of getting exactly two heads

in the four flips is greater than the probability of getting

heads on both the first and second flips. Maxine

disagrees. She thinks that the two probabilities are

equal.

of getting exactly two heads

in the four flips is greater

than the probability of getting

heads on both the first and

second flips.

Maxine disagrees. She thinks

that the two probabilities are

equal.

Joe is correct.

Maxine is correct

HHHH

THHH

HTHH

HHTH

HHHT

TTTT

THHH

THTT

TTHT

TTTH

HHTT

HTHT

HTTH

TTHH

THTH

THHT

of getting exactly two heads

in the four flips is greater

than the probability of getting

heads on both the first and

second flips.

Maxine disagrees. She thinks

that the two probabilities are

equal.

Joe is correct.

Maxine is correct

HHHH

THHH

HTHH

HHTH

HHHT

TTTT

THHH

THTT

TTHT

TTTH

HHTT

HTHT

HTTH

TTHH

THTH

THHT

Example 5

this game, each of the two players chooses fire, water,

or sponge. Both players reveal their choice at the same

time, and the winner is determined based on the

choices. Fire beats sponge by burning it, sponge beats

water by soaking it up, and water beats fire by putting it

out. If both players choose the same object, it is a tie.

All the possible outcomes of the game are listed below.

the outcomes where you

win

The subset consists of all

the outcomes where you

do not win and there is

not a tie.

The subset consists of all

the outcomes where your

friend wins.

The subset consists of all

the outcomes where there

is a tie.

Your

Choice

Outcome

1

Outcome

2

Outcome

3

Outcome

4

Outcome

5

Outcome

Fire

Your

friends

choice

Water

Fire

Fire

Fire

Sponge

Water

Fire

Water

Sponge

Water

Water

the outcomes where you

win

The subset consists of

all the outcomes where

you do not win and

there is not a tie.

The subset consists of

all the outcomes where

your friend wins.

The subset consists of all

the outcomes where there

is a tie.

Your

Choice

Outcome

1

Outcome

2

Outcome

3

Outcome

4

Outcome

5

Outcome

Fire

Your

friends

choice

Water

Fire

Fire

Fire

Sponge

Water

Fire

Water

Sponge

Water

Water

Simple probability

Example 1

Mrs. Avery is going to randomly select one student from

her class to read a poem out loud. There are15boys

and13girls in her class.

What isP(Boy)?

Example 3

Giovanna owns a farm. She is going to randomly select

one animal to present at the state fair. She

has6pigs,7chickens, and10cows.

What is

Example 4

Cam can't figure out what to eat. He is going to

randomly select a piece of fruit from his pantry. There

are4apples and5bananas in his pantry.

What is the

Example 5

Bruce is going to call one person from his contacts at

random. He has25total contacts.20 of those contacts

are from his neighborhood.

What is

(callapersonnotfromhisneighborhood)?

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